Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Context log:
Strong channel up above Resistance (=Weekly TR high and High of week), PB to VWAP and then small sideways TR.
Trade 1: 0 points
- Reasons for taking the trade:
1. Two legs up above VWAP + 2 SD
2. MM of first leg (100% fib.ext.)
3. Short bias. Expected the BO attempt of High of Week to fail.
Not OK to faid a strong channel. Should have waited.
Trade 2: 0 points:
- Reasons for taking the trade:
1. Changed bias to possible small PB trend after strong channel up. Next Resistance at ATH was within 8 points up.
2. Two legged PB close to VWAP
3. Strong signal bar.
OK entry! But target at ATH was maybe not realistic since channel high was at this point only 1,5 points below expected high comapred to ADR. I hoped for a BO and saw that a ATH was at the 100% fib ext. of the inital channel, but it didn't happen.
Resistance:
2294,25 (High of Prev. Week + ON High)
2299,50 (ATH)
Inital bias
Friday was another TR day.
My inital bias is that today will be another TR day. We may test lower into prev week TR. PB on the higher TF chart is not completed yet.
Context log:
TR day and inside day. Test of 60 min EMA 20 and prior session low.
Trade 1: - 2 points
- Reasons for taking the trade:
1. LL below VWAP + 2 SD
2. MM of first bear leg BO (100% fib.ext.)
Target =2 points (VWAP), SL = 2 points, RR = 1R.
This was a channel and 60min EMA20 as well as prior session low was just 2 points away. Should have waited and RR was to small.
Trade 2: +3,25 points:
- Reasons for taking the trade:
1. LL below VWAP + 2 SD
2. EMA20 60 min = Support/Target
3. Still channel, but bull BO bar was sign that channel may end.
OK entry. SL = 2 points, Target =3,5 points (VWAP), RR = 1,75. (Target was adjusted down at end of session)
Context log:
Another TR-day. Market tested resistance at 2294,25 three times and failed. Followed by a two legged move down (with a PB to VWAP) and a test of 60 min EMA20.
Trade 1: - 3 points
- Reasons for taking the trade:
1. 2 legs down below VWAP + 2 SD
2. MM of first bear leg BO (100% fib.ext.)
3. Support at 60 min. EMA20
Good plan but poor execution. Submitet limit order before dinner but was afraid of missing the entry so I set the entry price to high and got filled but stopped out at low of day. This FOMO misstake also means that the Reward-Risk Ratio with a target at VWAP became < 1.0 instead of > 1.5. This is the seccond time I'm doing this mistake on a TR Reversal setup. (In hindsight this would just have been a break-even trade if entry hade been correct.)
From now on I will respect that the minimum requirements for a TR Rev setup are:
- Entry price beyond VWAP + 2 SD
- Reward-Risk Ratio >= 2
- 100% fib extension of the second leg
- S/R
The PB to VWAP after the first strong leg looked good, but it's not a setup I iwant to take on a TR day. But in hindsight there were good reasons to enter:
- The bulls failed three times at resistance 2294,25 from where the firts leg started
- PB to VWAP (=resistance)
- The 2-bar reversal was a good signal bar
- The 100% fib extension of the first leg ended at EMA20 60 minutes which was a likely target.
Higher TF charts: Daily chart: LH below ATH. This is likely the first leg in a bull flag. A seccond leg down and a LL is likely. 60 min. chart: Market is close to the low in a 3 day TR and is approaching Monthly VWAP and Support at 2283,5.
Context log: Another TR-day. Market did test 2283,5 (Support) and 2282,5 (Monthly VWAP) and then reversed with a strong spike up. Three strong pushes up formed a wedge top that ended with a small DT. Market made a two legged PB down to VWAP that formed a DB Bull Flag and then channeled up to a new high above ovrnight high.
Trade 1: + 5.5 points
- Reasons for taking the trade:
1. Support levels tested at low of weekly TR
2. Strong spike up (2 strong BO bars)
3. High rel. volume (=OTF scaling in for low of day)
SL hit at BE. After first leg down 1 tick off target market made a big PB. The second leg down did hit inital target. (I still belive that it was resonable to adjust SL to BE when so close at target.)
A resonable long setup was the DB bull flag down to VWAP from the wedge top. I missed it by 1 tick since price actually missed VWAP by a fraction of a tick. But I'm glad I did no FOMO misstake today.
Overnight made new HH (triggered by news) on normal volume
Higher TF charts: Daily chart: LH below ATH. This is likely the first leg in a bull flag. A seccond leg down and LL is likely. 60 min. chart: Overnight HH forms a three-push pattern and a possible wedge top at resistance (2294,25). We are at the high of a 3 day TR and above weekly VWAP + 2 SD.
S/R
Support:
2281,00 (Prev. Session Low, Low of Week + Low of 3 day TR)
2272,25 (High of January TR + Monthly Pivot Point)
Resistance:
2294,25 (High of Week)
2296,25 (ON High)
2299,50 (ATH)
Initial bias
Yesterday was another TR day.
We are at the high of a 3 day TR and above weekly VWAP + 2 SD. I expect a test of ON high and resistance at 2296,25-2299,50 and then a move down back in last three days TR.
Typ Of Day Bias: Range Day Directional Bias: down (after an inital test up.)
Context log:
In contrast to my inital bias today was a bull trend day. After two weak bull legs the strong BO above resistance at 2296,25 (ON high) and 2299,50 (ATH) made a bull trend day likely and I changed my bias.
Trade 1 (short): - 4 points
- Reasons for taking the trade:
1. Inital bias (Market at: high in 3 days TR, Resistance, possible wedge top on 60 min ETH chart)
2. Low relative volume
3. Two weak legs up to ADN (Average Daily Noise) and ON high (=resistance)
4. Possible High of Day
Trade Plan:
- SL (above resistance): 4,25 points
- Target (60 min EMA 20 and just below weekly VWAP): >= 8 points
- Reward Risk: 2.0
Trade 2: (long): + 4,25 points
- Reasons for taking the trade:
1. Initial bias invalidated, so this was likely a bull trend day
2. strong BO
3. First BO of day and sufficent remaning ADR
Higher TF charts: Daily chart: New ATH after a sidways correction. The bull trend seems to continue since no obvious TL break has occured yet. 60 min. chart: Price did BO out prior days TR and is trading above the weekly and monthly VWAP + 2 SD as well as above the weekly and monthly R1.
Support:
2294,25 (High of prior Week + High of previous 4 days TR)
2280,50 (Low of previous 4 days TR)
Initial bias
Yesterday was a bull trend to ATH.
We are high and above monthly VWAP + 2 SD. I expect a test of ON high (ATH) and then a move down back and a test in the old TR.
Typ Of Day Bias: Range Day Directional Bias: down (after an inital test up.)
