Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Nice trades. That short in the 45's is one I also identified and in terms of entry and exit getting out on that bounce was where I would/should have exited based on my criteria as well.
Sitting and looking after the close it's one of those things where sell and hold would have worked yesterday but that's rarely the case. So in the end while price just stair stepped it's way down yesterday after the opening move up it certainly did not have the look of a strong move down...it felt to me like price could reverse and turn bullish very easily many times yesterday.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a H2 has triggered. We have traded sideways for the last 3 weeks with both buy- and sell signal bars. Yesterday failed to BO of the prior session inside bar and became a small bear reversal bar. We are in the middle of a tight bear channel.
120 min. chart (ETH): Most likely TR (Triangle). Possible broad bear channel. We are close to the monthly VWAP.
30 min. chart (ETH): Bear channel or possible TR. Yesterday was the first attempt to break the TL of the bear channel. So we may expect a retest of the channel low and a HL or LL MTR within a few days. (The HL MTR seems more likley since the MM target based on the April 5th bear spike is already tested.)
Type of Day:
- Daily bar: small bear reversal bar = increased chance for a BO and a wide range day down
- Higher TF context: Market is trading in the mid of a TR or broad bear channel on the daily chart and the 2 month 120 min chart. The 2 week 30 min chart may retest the low of the channel and form a HL MTR.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Trade 1 (BoPb, long): + 5,25 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Strong bull BO, so AIL
- First strong spike in session so a 2nd leg was expected
- L2 PB + BO test
- signal bar + FT (weak revesal bar + strong FT trend bar)
Trade Plan
SL: 2 points
Target (MM based on spike): 5,5 points
RR-Ratio: 2,75
Comment: OK entry plan. Countertrend arguments were not convincing (possible big L2 on 30 min ETH chart, possible MM target hit based on weak bull spike during ON session).
The big misstake was the early exit because I failed to recognize the bull trend in time. The signs of a trend day were there: consecutive bull BO bars that closed above VWAP + 2SD, high relative volume and strong bull spikes. But I missed it partly because I had a slightly short bias but mainly because I forgot to ask myself the important questions:
- What are the arguments for a TR-Day?
- What are the arguments for a Trend-Day?
- What is required for this day to turn into a trend day?
I will write these questions down on a post-it note and put it on my desk when I'm trading.
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a H2 has triggered. We have traded sideways for the last 3 weeks with both buy- and sell signal bars. Yesterday was a bull trend day and we hit the MM target of the Tuesday daily trend bar. There are targets just above: major bear TL and April 5th bear spike high.
120 min. chart (ETH): Most likely TR. Possible broad bear channel. We are trading just above the monthly VWAP.
Type of Day:
- Daily bar: bull trend bar = increased chance for a TR day and a small range day
- Higher TF context: Market is trading in the mid of a TR or broad bear channel on the daily chart and the 2 month 120 min chart. We may test the target above and then reverse back lower in the TR.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Trade 1 (BoPb, short): 0 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- 2 strong legs down in a bear channel
- PB to resistance + VWAP
- TL break
- signal bar (bear reversal bar)
Trade Plan:
SL: 2 points
Target (MM based on bear channel): 9 points
RR-Ratio: 4,5
Comment: OK entry plan. Although there were arguments for a HL MTR reversal up after the TL break of the bear channel, price would most likely test lower before a reversal and I would have had enough room to get out BE. So there was approximately a 50% chance of a MM down with very limited risk.
My execution though was not ok. I hesitated and missed to enter a stop order 1 tick off the signal bar before the BO so I did instead enter on a market order 1 point lower. I ask myself if I should have been patient and tried to enter on a limit order at the price i originally planned or not? In hindsigt I know that I would have got filled.
After the BO i moved my SL to BE. But the PB hit my SL. If I instead would have adjusted my SL to the originally planned entry price, the trade would have been profitable.
Where to tighten ones SL seems to be a tricky question. My current rule is 2 ticks of the BO point. That would have worked today if I had followed it.
Hindsight Thoughts
I can't see any other obvious good entries today (during the first three hours) besides the one I took .
Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: up
Asia: mixed
Oil: neutral
Gold: down
Bonds: neutral
Sentiment is slightly up (due to the French election)
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a H2 has triggered. We have traded sideways for the last 3 weeks with both buy- and sell signal bars. Friday was an inside day.
120 min. chart (ETH): Most likely TR. Overnight has broken the major bear TL and tested the April 5th bear spike high (=target). We are close to the major TR high around 2378.
30 min. chart (ETH): BO of TR.
Overnight: Overnight has made a new high on relative high volume.
Type of Day:
- We are opening with a big bull OG.
- Higher TF context: Market is trading at the high of the major TR . MM target have been hit. The market may try to BO of the TR above 2378 and then reverse back in the TR.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Trade 1 (S/R-Rev, long): +2,25 points
Reason for taking the trade:
- Wedge bottom at support
- Failed bear BO at support
- 2 legs down (30 min ETH chart)
- TICK divergence
- Price was below VWAP - 2 SD
- Micro DB
Comment: OK entry plan but exit management was not ok. There were so many reasons to take the long that I chose to enter on a micro DB insted of waiting for a HL, since I was unsure if the 2nd entry HL would come, but it did, as it usually does. I would have caught 1 more point if I had waited.
I should have exited at resistance at 2372,50 and secured profit since this was an obvious TR day. It was a bull channel, but after the first bull spike in the channel and a minor TCL overshoot at resistance, a deeper PB was expected. So the right thing to do would have been to exit at resistance and try to reenter on a PB around VWAP for a possible test of the ON high. (The trade management was unattended after 20.30 GMT+1 with an OCO SL/Target order.)
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a H2 has triggered. We have traded sideways for the last 3 weeks with both buy- and sell signal bars. YD made a big gap up and the gap low arouned 2357 is likely a target.
120 min. chart (ETH): Most likely TR. We are trading at the major TR high around 2378 and the market will most lielky reverse back in the TR. A BO is less likely. We have broken above the major bear channel TL and may soon have a MTR and a retest of the broad bear channel low.
30 min. chart (ETH): TR.
Overnight:Overnight has made a new high on relative low volume and an attempt to BO above the major TR high at 2379.
Type of Day:
- Daily bar: The big bull gap of YD may have to be tested before we can continue higher. YD was small range TR day so today there is a slightly increased chance for a wide range day.
- Higher TF context: Market is trading at the high of the major TR. We have had a BO above the major bear channel TL and we may have a MTR and a retest of the old bear channel low.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
Trade 1: (S/R-rev, short): -2,25 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Climax BO + TCL overshoot on 30 min ETH chart (TCL = resistance)
- MM target hit, based on first bull spike
- This was the first BO attempt above the major TR high, thus it was likley to fail
- Tight bear channel from HoD
- signal bar = 2 bar reversal on 30 min chart
Comment: In hindsight I see that this was not a good entry plan, although I thought so at the time. The main reasons why I should not have considered this entry are:
- A TCL is usually not a reliable S/R-level. The obvious horisontal resistance level was just 2 points higher and would likley be tested before a reversal should be expected.
- Although the bear channel from HoD looked strong, this could as well be a PB at VWAP. Thus this entry was a short at a support level.
I also made an execution misstake and placed my stop order at the 30 min 2 bar reversal low instead of 1 tick lower. Had I placed the order correctly it would not have been filled. So this was an unnecessary loser.
Trade 2: (S/R-rev, short): 0 points
- Climax BO + TCL overshoot on 30 min ETH chart (TCL = resistance)
- LH + DT bear flag (= 2nd entry)
Comment: OK entry plan but not optimal. (The TCL is still no good S/R-level). To enter after the 4 consecutive bull trend bars may have been a bit too risky. And there was another 2nd entry only 2 bars later. I have noticed that when momentum is strong in the opposite direction there will usually be good 2nd entry just a few bars later if you have read the price action correctly.
Trade 3: (S/R-rev, short): -1,25 points
- Failed bull BO at resistance
- Big BO bar late in weak bull channel = exhaustion
- Price above VWAP + 2 SD (=over bought)
- Wedge top at HoD
Comment: Not OK entry. Entry reasons were ok, but I should have waited for the 2nd entry. A reversal setup usually requires a 2nd entry to be reliable, except if the move to S/R is very weak. I will add this to my rules.
The inside bear bar was not a good signal bar for a revesal after a strong bull spike. The last push up was expected.
Trade 4: (S/R-rev, short): 0 points
- as above (re-entry)
- FF (= 2nd entry)
- Signal bar (bear reversal bar)
Hindsight Thoughts
Today was the first day that I had the time to trade during the entire RTH session. I feel that I could keep rather focused until the end of the day, but now I feel somewhat exhausted.
I'm not quite happy with my entries today since only 2 out of 4 entries were ok. Lessons learned today:
1) From now on I will only take reversal setups on a 2nd entry, (except if the move to S/R is very weak)
2) I will be more observant where i place my stop orders ( 1 tick off the signal bar)
In hindsight I see that I was on the wrong side of the market most of the day and that is frustrating. The continuation of the bull BO at the high of the TR seemed unlikely. The market traded above the weekly VWAP + 2 Std.Dev as well as the monthly VWAP + 2 Std.Dev after Mondays big bull opening gap. This means either that the market is very overbought or in a strong trend, and I do not see any trend. But I noticed that the "New Home Sales" news (at GMT +1: 16:00 / EST: 10:00 AM) were very positive and above the consensus range. Maybe that was the reason for the market to work higher?
Sentiment (GMT +1: 15:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral
Asia: neutral/up
Oil: neutral
Gold: neutral
Bonds: up
Sentiment is neutral
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a H2 has triggered. We are in a possible bull channel and are approaching ATH. Monday made a big gap up and the gap low around 2357 is likely still a target.
120 min. chart (ETH): Most likely TR. We are trading just below the major TR high around 2389 and a BO seemes unlikely. The next higher target is ATH. We have broken above the major bear channel TL and may soon have a MTR and a retest of the broad bear channel low.
30 min. chart (ETH): BO of TR and possible bull channel.
Overnight:Overnight has traded sideways within prior session range on relative low volume.
Type of Day:
- Daily bar: YD was wide range day so today there is a slightly increased chance for a narrow range day.
- Higher TF context: Market is trading at the high of the major TR. We have had a BO above the major bear channel TL and we may have a MTR and a retest of the old bear channel low.
Scenarios (blue), S/R-levels (pink) and Targets (green)
