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Context Log
Tight TR, strong Bull leg and BO to EMA20 (60 min) and TR high (resistance), bear cahnnel, two legged bear BO, bull leg back to VWAP.
Trade 1 (long, BO PB): -1,5 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- H2 PB after strong Bull BO
- failed bear BO
- VWAP (= support)
- Expected a 2nd leg up
Comment: Bad reading of the price action. Although I suspected that the strong bull spike may be a climax spike up to resistance, I didn't find any more clues for this assumption at the time. But the clues were there. The last bar in the spike was the biggest bar. The spike was in a tight channel and the last bar was the TCL overshoot followed by a minor HH reversal. My misstake was not carefully enough reading the price action from the bear perspective.
Trade 2 ( long, BO PB): -1,25 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- same as above (reenterd after stop was hit)
- strong signal bar, 2 bar reversal
Comment: At this point the bear channel should have bean obvious as well as the 4 bear bars bfore my signal bar. The bear momentum was too strong to enter long. I had been absent from the screen and the decision to reenter was made to rash.
Context Log
Small bull opening gap at TR high. Strong bear trend (2 big legs down to low of major TR), bull spike in channel (=TL break), bear channel to LoD, sideways
Trades (long, MTR): -3,5 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- LL MTR after strong bear trend
- bear channel after TL break had TCL overshoot + LL (= reversal pattern of channel)
- Possible LL MTR on 30 min chart triggered
- Momentum/ BO (= confirmation)
Comment: I belive this was an ok setup for a MTR. But the bear trend was perhaps too strong for a MTR on the 5 min chart. The reversal may take a few days and evolve on a HTF chart.
Hindsight Thoughts
How could I miss the entire bear trend? The first reason is that I was late for the opening today and hadn't finished my pre-session analysis before 15 min after opening. Although I saw that we opened at the high of a TR, I didn't expect a bear trend day. I patiently waited for a PB that never came. One big misstake was that I forgott to check my Relative Volume indicator (whos only purpose is to signal if a trend day is likely). The only small PB on the 5 min chart occuredone one hour after opening at the low of the upper TR, so I was pretty sure that this was the end of a climax leg in a TR. The second leg in the bear trend was a total a suprise to me since I expected a bigger PB before a MM down.
After opening:
15:00 GMT +1/ 10:00 AM EST (Existing Home Sales)
Sentiment (GMT +1: 14:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral
Asia: down
Oil: down
Gold: neutral
Bonds: down
Sentiment is mixed
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a possible H2 is forming.
60 min. chart (ETH): After YD strong bear trend we have broken below the major TR of the last 4-5 weeks. The question is if the market will make a MTR up or MM move down til 2300?
30 min. chart (ETH): TL break after YD strong bear trend and TR.
Comment:
Although this may look as a good setup it's not, and I shouldn't have entered. A DT bear flag in TR is usually not realiable, it's just TR. A TL late in a channel is not a reliable resistance on it's own. The major resistance line was far above. This was the first bull leg of the day and a second leg could be expected, and it came later. Futhermore the risk was much to high.
Hindsight Thoughts
The trades that I should have taken were:
1. short at 14:50 (Opening reversal at HoD and small DT bear flag)
2. long at 15:35( Wedge bottom at major support and TCL)
3. short at 16:50 (LH after two legs up to major resistance)
News
Before opening:
Jobless Claims, above consensus
After opening:
15:00 GMT +1/ 10:00 AM EST (New Home Sales)
Sentiment (GMT +1: 14:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral
Asia: netral
Oil: neutral
Gold: neutral
Bonds: down
Sentiment is neutral
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a possible H2 is forming.
60 min. chart (ETH): After Thursday strong bear trend we have broken below the major TR of the last 4-5 weeks. We are forming a new TR and the question is if the market will make a MTR up or MM move down to 2300?
30 min. chart (ETH): TR. Targets above are weekly VWAP and MM of the bull spike from YD at 16:00 (GMT +1)
Inital Bias
My inital bias is that we will trade lower and form a LL MTR on the 60 min ETH chart after Thursday bear trend. An alternative scenario is that the market will test the weekly VWAP above.
Context Log
Three legs up (= Wedge top), sideways TTR (= FF), two legged strong BO to LoD
Trade 1 (short, TrRev): -2,5 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Two leggs up + MM target hit (=100% fib. ext.)
- 60min EMA20 (resistance)
- Targets hit (Weekly VWAP, MM of spike from YD)
- 1 bar FF, MDT + possible HH climax bar
Comment: At the time this seemed like a good entry point. That the market would make a third leg up on a TR day was unexpected. The main misstake here was that the top formation (1 bar FF, MDT ) was to weak after the strong second leg that had 4 bull BO bars. Some kind of HH/LH reversal pattern or DT would have been required for a better entry chance.
Trade 2 (short, TrRev): -1.0 point
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Three legs up + wedge top
- Resistance level + DT with Thuesday swing high
- LH
Comment: Good entry. Unfortunately I tightened my SL above the HL when it triggered (although I know that one shouldn't adjust the SL before the first BO) and was stopped out on the next higher LH. So due to bad magament I missed 10 points profit.
News Before opening:
Durable Goods Orders, at consensus
After opening:
14:45 GMT +1/ 9:45 AM EST (PMI Composite Flash)
Sentiment (GMT +1: 14:00 / EST: 9:00 AM)
Europe: neutral
Asia: netral
Oil: neutral
Gold: neutral
Bonds: up
Sentiment is neutral
Higher TF charts and ON Daily chart: We are in a PB after ATH and a possible H2 is forming. Market has formed a small 3 day sideways bear flag at the low of Tuesday, strong bear trend day. YD was a small bear reversal day.
60 min. chart (ETH): After Tuesday strong bear trend we have formed a L2. We may have a MM down after YD strong bear leg.
S/R
Major Support:
2341,25 (Upper TR low + ON low)
2332,50 (Lower TR low)
2326,25 (Bull gap low)
Minor Support
2341,50
Major Resistance:
2349,50 (TR high)
2356,00 (YD high)
2398,25 (ATH)
Inital Bias
My inital bias is that we will have another TR day and trade lower and maybe test the low of lower TR that also is a MM target of YD bear spike.
Context Log
TR day. Sideaways, two elgs up, bear BO, spike and channel baer trend to LoD, reversal up.
Trade 1: (short, Orev.): -2,25 points
Reasons for taking the trade:
- Opening reversal at resistance level
- strong signal bar (2 bar reversal)
- inital bias
Comment: OK entry. Maybe should have tightened my SL at the second bull reversal bar that also was a long H2 PB setup.
Hindsight Thoughts
I didn't take the short L2 entry after HoD because:
- I didn't notice the minor resistance level at 2352,25 that was a thin area on the 5 min RTH chart of YD
- I didn't belive that the market would break down after 2,5 hours of sideways trading in a 7 point range.
