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P.S. I just realized I took only shorts today...I was feeling the markets path of least resistance was down, so unable to see long setups. Having said that, the hard right side was just not clear to me. Best wishes to all.
A number of technical issues this morning...Trading computer would not turn on. Tried different outlet, different cable, played with wires. Finally starts. WHEW Then Bookmap wont sign on. Mess with this a little. Sent email to tech support and get it going but to late to use in trading session. Did not capture last trade, so don't have picture of trade for journal.
Premarket: Price bleeding down. Market below Fridays RTH VPOC 53.77. Unclear at this moment. Seems to be balancing going into the open. No 8:00 trade.
Going into 9:00. Still have short bias, but very slow. Short at 53.68. Late and not much concentration. Have to leave for work. Stopped for -6 ticks. Really a very sideways slow morning.
This is the kind of day that has destroyed me in the past! Glad to get out with a small loss.
Technical issues again!! to start the day...computer wont start. Seem to have found the cause. Moniter cable shorting out. Removed and computer starts normally. But plug monitor back in and monitor/computer start working...hmmm.
Premarket Strategy: I was watching a webinar on FIO with Brannigan Barrett, and he was talking about 'knowing when to get big". This makes a lot of sense to me. Especially in considering the old trading adage "90% of your profit comes from 10% of your trades". The problem is how to implement it. So today I will be trying to use this idea in my trading. I have strong short signal, and the daily chart appears to FINALLY be breaking down. So I will trade a 3 lot instead of a 2 lot. We will see how it goes.
I feel like I must figure out how to take my trading to the next level. I have a couple of decent weeks, then give it all back. Primarily in taking trades where there is really not much opportunity. I think I need to do a better job of recognizing opportunity and taking advantage of it.
Looking for short off of the open. Nice energy in the market, all TFs look short.
8:00 Short at 52.58. Have a couple of ticks profit, and then market reverses. Stopped for -5 ticks. I will revisit this later.
Trade 2: Gotcha type bar...(market tries to rally then reverses) short at 52.27. My sense is CL is breaking out of range so I want to hold for larger targets. Nice move down, I take 1 off for 50 ticks. Still feel market wants to spill to downside. ****See summary.
Market pulls back into area of VWAP and here is where I mess up!! FT71 has been talking about "campaigning around a price" and so since I had a short bias, I tried to campaign around the VWAP area. I have been practicing this with Bookmap, but it didn't go well today. I don't think T4 is calculating average price correctly...then I get stopped out on sudden burst above VWAP!! Pretty bummed about this. My understanding of this technique must be flawed. A topic for more study.
Trade 3: Market breaks down from VWAP, I am short at 52.29. Have a volume cluster at the bottom of range around 52.10 that I think will hold market up. Trail stop hit at 52.16. I should have taken one off at the 52.10 area and trailed the 2nd contract. This would have helped my R:R. Thankful to be GREEN today.
Final Summary: My stop management process needs a lot of work. Feel like I am not reading the market clues as well as I should. That move down into 52.01 had huge volume on the 1 min bar. Also I have to be careful that my idea (market wanting to spill down) doesn't change my trading in the moment. I will be giving some more thought into better ways to address these things.
Quick Summary: Lost $153.12 This day was a lot worse for me than the final numbers show! Had a real lapse in discipline and traded emotionally. I will enter my regular journal comments, and then add some comments in brackets regarding my emotions and summary of trades.
Premarket: Market in nice Uptrend, but starting to get sideways action. Market broke trend, but then reversed, but then couldn't take out the highs. Direction for 8:00 is unclear, so no open trade and I will only trade max 2 lots.
8:00 If market goes one way or the other it goes without me. Just unclear what the direction is. (Hindsight says...well of course its up!! LOL). And it takes off and makes new high. Looking for BO, but market only makes a tick higher, then stalls.
Trade1: Order flow short. at 52.99. Just wont go anywhere an I get stopped for a tick.
[Alright I am ok with this trade. Really a scalp at best. Did have nice OF signal.]
No more trades in 8:00 TF
8:30 Ok nobody really getting paid. Market has one push up then dies. Range is like 20 ticks!! I have the 100 ticks range as 53.22. Want to be very careful about buying up here. But bias is definitely long. Wow BO before the 830 open, but with 7700 contracts. Maybe it is a bull trap?? Not even a quick pullback.
Trade 2: Long at 53.09 at the CWAP. Only 1 lot because market has been pulling back through the VWAP. Simply no buyers, so I scratch. Huge volume at the highs here. Someone is about to be very wrong.
[This trade is OK. Per plan, Huge Vol cluster just above the trade, just no energy]
Trade 3: No energy, looking for shorts if market breaks 53.09. It breaks, I am short 53.08 with 2 lot. I am looking for first target at 52.90. Ok Filled on first lot. Wow to the tick! That goes down as a gift
[I am OK with this trade up to this point.]
Trailing stop on second half. Stop to 53.04, then I take a big cool drink of Hopium, and...move the stop to 53.06. But stopped. I am up a nice $210.00
[I start realizing that VWAP for the swing is 53.11, but I don't want to get stopped out way up there. I am trying to figure out what to do, and the market takes me out at 53.06. I will comment on this trade later. But the real problem is, I lose mental focus!! Things go downhill from here.]
Trade 4: Realize that I mismanaged trade and FOMO kicks in. I short 1 at 52.99, but in moving stop, I accidently take myself out of the trade for a loss of 1 tick!!
[Losing it here. Just no other excuse or reason.]
Trade 5: I short 2 at 52.97. But then I realize I am way late on the trade and stop needs to be probably 53.10 at least. I cant take the pain and puke it out at 53.09!
[Traders' insanity has set in]
Trade 6!!!! Market starts to move lower so I short again at 53.07!!! I FINALLY realize I have lost it and just close the trade at 53.11 -4 ticks. I have to leave for work, which is a real blessing.
Final Summary: Just a bad day that could have been a whole lot worse. I think this is the first day since I started journaling that I have traded so emotionally. Must do better.
The third trade is the one I want to focus on...I saw an Al Brooks webinar where he said something like..."you swing trade with the trend. If you are counter trend you are scalping." I think that's the basic idea. This makes sense after today. Market in strong UT, any short trade is a scalp, until I get a real confirmation that market has turned. Which means to me, that I should be taking profit, and trailing stop TIGHT on these trades. Not hoping for the big move. On the swing setups I get off the open sometimes, I can consider that more of a swing trade with wider targets and looser stops. If I can learn this one thing, maybe this day will be worth it. Maybe LOL
Premarket analysis: Market nice UT but at almost 100 ticks. Very hard to be a buyer up here. Will look for a momentum long off the open. Will only trade 1-2 contracts.
8:00 Quick burst ahead of open. No long. Failure to take out high, and burst of selling. OF short 2 lot at 53.90. A lot of liquidity up here. Moved stop to 54.01. Stopped for -11 ticks at 8:05. Trade just didn't work. In retrospect, I have been taking OF trades with 1 lot, and it would have been prudent to do that today. Also I have just been taking 5-6 tick stop outs...not 11! I did consider adding up here, but did not because I didn't want to turn it into a huge loss.
Quick push looks like momentum, and I short it at 53.78 with 2 lots. Market bleeds up against me and so I add 1 at 53.84. This is outside of plan, so I really am not happy with it. It would have been the right decision in this case, but I need a lot more work building this into my plan. Huge fight in this area, looks like we are trying to break the TL from the move up. I try to adjust stop on my one lot, and STOP myself out!! This is like the second or third time this week I have done that!!! Market starts to move in my favor. Blended entry is 53.80.
Market moves to 53.69, I make no move to protect position. This is error. And I pay the price. Market comes back up and I add 3rd contract and it stops me out 53.91. Large loss.
I am thinking BO (actually I am not thinking at all at this point) and I go long with 2 lot at 53.92. This is not a horrible trade, fact is I was originally wanting to get long at 53.74!! If I had stayed with that idea, I would have been much better off. Close trade at BE. Just no energy in the market.
Tried another short as the market gets stuck at the decision point VPOC. Short at 53.99. Starts to move for me. This is scalp against trend, and I get taken out at BE+1. Little stop run and then nothing!
Last trade: market seems to be breaking, and I short 2 lot at 53.91 and stopped at 53.97 and done. Real tough end to the week, I will try to give a summary tomorrow.
Quick Summary: Down $385.20 for the day. I actually feel I traded better than my P &L shows. Trades just did not work. I did overtrade though. Need to work that into my plan. After 3 trades and still negative, probably time to just shut it down. Will look into this more.
Premarket Analysis: Market seems very sideways. Don't have a clear direction of the open. No trade on the open. If market takes out the low, and then buyers come in, I will be a buyer.
9:00 Market still looks short. Strange that we had one move of the 8:00 open, and then the market just goes completely quiet.
Trade 5: CT Long @ 53.13. Broke through MAs and some nice buying. Just nobody wants to take it higher!! Lost 3 ticks.
Trade 9: Combo of 2 trades. Short 2 lot at 52.85. Market bounces...I still feel I have direction right. Add one lot at 52.90. End up making a tick on it. I am really convinced that we will see one more sell surge at the European close....but I am wrong. Stopped for 7 ticks on the 2 lot.
I did stay with my plan. Good thing I was only using 1 lot on the longs. My thought was that it was CT...and was it ever!!! Was looking back, and didn't win on any of them. I have been trying to take the OF scalp trades, but I am not successful doing this. I am considering just no CT stuff at all...market has to give a valid short signal, take out the MAs etc.
I WAY overtraded though. Going into that last trade I was still in reach of being profitable, and I thought it worth the risk. I have had 3 down days in a row, and definitely need to turn this thing around. I am only $800 or so from TMD. This has caught me a couple of times.
On another note; I found out that the only day of the week I am profitable for the last 6 weeks is Tuesday. So my new plan is to only trade on Tuesday with max size!!
NOT!
I think you have to be pretty crazy to be a trader....Or at least it sure helps.
Quick Summary: Lost $401.52. Wow! 4 days in a row...The only good thing is I didn't hit my max daily loss, and didn't hit TMD. Not much good to say beyond that.
Morning Analysis: Trend is sideways to up. Market trying to get above VPOC of range. Ugly chart today with MAs all over the place. YH 53.46. Looking for long at 8:00.
8:00 Trade: Trying to get long and the market walks away from me. Probably should have just hit the market on the open. No trade. Market has a little pop, and then starts to bleed lower. No trades for this time segment.
Going into 8:30 I am looking long. Would like to see a quick push down, and then a reversal up. If this happens, I will jump in long.
8:30 Just no energy. Market bleeds lower, no trade. Finally pulls back to VWAP, but I am not liking it at all. To slow and quiet. I hold off...finally market tries to push lower, 225 hit the bid and get stuck, and I jump in long at 53.53 with 2 lot. I really like this trade. Feel like I read it well, and reacted well. Market needs to get through MA resistance at about 53.61, and the buyers just walk away....I roll stop to BE. I either goes or it doesn't. Stopped for BE. Happy with this trade and execution.
Going into 9:00. Mental state good, 1 trade taken for BE. Bias is still long.
9:00 Market pulls back deeply to long term MA. I buy it at 53.42 with 2 lot. Quick add of 1 lot at 53.39. Like this trade a lot. Market starts to move in my favor. One of the decent pushes during the day...and then my trading plan fails me.
I realize I have a short signal at the VWAP, perfect setup. But, I have no clue how to handle it. Punch out, Punch out and go short, take something off and hold runner? Just don't know what to do. I at least protect some profit on the trade. The trade rolls down and stops me out for small winner.
So, I get short but waaaaay late. 53.43. Market moves against me, and I eventually stop out. It gets ugly after that with just emotional trading. I need to think about how I want to handle this kind of situation in the future. I need to quantify what I am calling Uptrend or Downtrend better. I will not be able to trade tomorrow because of work. (Probably a good thing). Will lick my wounds and come back on Thursday and attack it again.
