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Bear Down! Trading Journal

  #61 (permalink)
 
Dabears2322's Avatar
 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
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Day 4:

Very low volume at the open again.

Signal 1: Long signal, target at 2 at yesterday pp, under weekly vwap. risk 1.5, target 2. Don't love it but see if we can breakthrough globex high. And quickly stopped. -1.5
Price going back in my direction, but have a small tick divergence. Potential reversal at weekly vwap and yesterday poc.
And there it goes for 4 points back to pp/vwap. The tick strikes again!
Smaller divergence for potential pullback.
Got that small pullback then price continued. About a 6 point move since that original reversal. Hitting support at opening/overnight poc, bottom of yesterday value range, vwap

Signal 2: Missed a fill.

Signal 3: Short at the bottom again, risk 1.5, target 1.75. Quickly stopped out. -1.5
Have a longer term tick divergence pointing to more upside than price is showing right now.
Made new HL. Price is falling while tick is up, showing a bullish signal. Tick making new highs.
Price is sticking in a 3 tick range at the swing high while tick prints lower and lower. bearish
Just nothing going on today. Have some good examples of tick divergence again. Have been reading through the spoo thread as well as intelcaps journal. Great stuff in there.

Missed a great signal but thats ok. I am finally starting to understand these different price levels, vwap, etc more and how different days trade differently after reading intelcaps stuff.

welp. had to go to the dmv, missed a bunch of good signals. Hopefully this vol will continue tomorrow. I predicted a bunch of good points, including the bottom which gives me more confidence. With the last 2 hours being dominated by buyers, expecting it to carry over into the open tomorrow.

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  #62 (permalink)
 
Dabears2322's Avatar
 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
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1: Tick printing lower while price continues up. Bear signal. Price reverses
2: Area 2 adds significance as a new significant low tick prints while price is still higher. Confirms the reversal. Good for about 5 points to vwap

3: Tick prints a HL while price goes lower. Sign of bullish reversal. Get 2 points here

4: This one was tough in real time. Tick prints a new high, but the majority is printing bearish still. Line 4 shows a lower tick being printed while prices churn up. Get about a 3 point reversal.
5: 5 adds significance to this as the tick prints a new significant low while price is still higher.

6: Higher tick prints while price continues lower, signaling a reversal. 2 point reversal



7: Tick is making lower highs below 0, but also higher lows, so it is tough to see this in real time. Price is having trouble going higher, and then a huge down tick by arrow 7 prints while price lags behind. Price accelerates through vwap to sd1 for 4 points.

8: This area shows a new low tick for the day followed by an uptick with a candle that has a higher low right next to it. This is a very light divergence and does end up showing a small pullback.
9: tick has trouble getting over 0, so still pretty bearish. Another big low tick and price continues down through a few significant support areas for another 8 points.

10: Pretty significant divergence here. This one was very obvious in real time. Tick prints a clear higher low while price goes way lower than the previous point where the tick was at its daily low. Signaled the bottom of the downtrend. Price reversed for 12 points into the close.

11: New high tick above 200 while price is lower. should signal new highs to come.

12: Confirms the new uptrend. New higher lows being made on both tick and ES

Below is the overall review of the day.


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  #63 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
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Did some quick back testing on how certain levels respond when price comes up to them. Used ES for the test.

Weekly PP: 180 day back test with hour chart for RTH and ETH. Price will not accelerate through and will bounce off 80% of the time in the ETH and 77% in RTH when price comes down or up to hit it. It might go through it for a few points but will return back the other way 80 and 77% of the time. These "rebounds" are considered at least 2 points, usually more but sometimes small like the minimum of 2. I would give these numbers about a 4% confidence interval both ways.

Previous Week H/L: Only did a 90 day test on this, so numbers aren't as meaningful. Got at least a small rebound off these levels 70% of the time. Didn't seem like these levels had the significance that other levels have.

Weekly Vwap Bounce: There was at least a small bounce off of the vwap about 77% of the time. Price seems to at least hesitate at this level if it will follow through.

Did some weird ones that don't hold much significance but interesting to look at.

Color of first 30 minute bar of US session vs if day ends above/below open: 73%
Only could do a 30 day back test on this so this number hold little significance, but seems pretty high. If the first 30 minutes from 9:30-10 closed up on the open, it would say that the day will likely close higher than the 9:30 open price, and opposite for a down open.

Color of last candle of previous day vs color of first candle today: 60%
Again, only a 30 day test. Self explanatory, if the previous day closed with a red candle, the next day might open with a red candle as well. Pretty much no correlation here.

Was bored and thought I would look into these things for fun.

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  #64 (permalink)
 nightshade 
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Dabears2322 View Post
Did some quick back testing on how certain levels respond when price comes up to them. Used ES for the test.

Weekly PP: 180 day back test with hour chart for RTH and ETH. Price will not accelerate through and will bounce off 80% of the time in the ETH and 77% in RTH when price comes down or up to hit it. It might go through it for a few points but will return back the other way 80 and 77% of the time. These "rebounds" are considered at least 2 points, usually more but sometimes small like the minimum of 2. I would give these numbers about a 4% confidence interval both ways.

Previous Week H/L: Only did a 90 day test on this, so numbers aren't as meaningful. Got at least a small rebound off these levels 70% of the time. Didn't seem like these levels had the significance that other levels have.

Weekly Vwap Bounce: There was at least a small bounce off of the vwap about 77% of the time. Price seems to at least hesitate at this level if it will follow through.

Did some weird ones that don't hold much significance but interesting to look

Color of first 30 minute bar of US session vs if day ends above/below open: 73%
Only could do a 30 day back test on this so this number hold little significance, but seems pretty high. If the first 30 minutes from 9:30-10 closed up on the open, it would say that the day will likely close higher than the 9:30 open price, and opposite for a down open.

Color of last candle of previous day vs color of first candle today: 60%
Again, only a 30 day test. Self explanatory, if the previous day closed with a red candle, the next day might open with a red candle as well. Pretty much no correlation here.

Was bored and thought I would look into these things for fun.


What tool or software do you use to back test or do you do it manually

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  #65 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
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Just went through it manually. Took some time to do.

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  #66 (permalink)
 
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 Comeback King 
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I believe that for a mouse trader manual back testing is superior to mechanical back testing. Yes, it is less efficient and will take much longer but I also think you learn some things from going back through charts like that, particularly if you go slowly and keep an open mind so you can absorb the information a little better.

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  #67 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
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Friday- Going to type out trades here that I would do with a different style like Intelcap. I will still trade my system live

Broke a channel overnight, so have a long bias.

Open selling off, would look to go long @ sd1 at 2369
Weekly vwap and weekly pp confluence
Opening gap of about 7 points. Some of it getting filled.
Attempt to get through yesterdays high/a_down
Add at weekly vwap/pp @68.25
Don't know how to go about setting targets yet, but I assume I would've taken profit off at this point somewhere, up 4 and 5 points respectively.
Failed a_down
Acceleration through vwap, add on pullback to ORL

Signal 1 (real): Long at vwap 72.50, risk 1.5, target 2.75 towards ONH. Stopped -1.5

After looking through IC's journal again, I saw a day that looked exactly like today so far. And its starting to play out like that as I type this. Except inverted.


And it plays out just like this day! Failed A_Down, back into OR, Top at top of OR while tick is diverging, bounce off vwap with lower highs, lower tick, acceleration through vwap, sd1, weekly vwap/pp, now gettting a pullback to weekly pp/vwap and sd1, short here. Only thing is that his played out a lot slower and throughout the whole day while today has been quick and price came down to a key trendline that was broken out of last night, so might rather be long biased.

Ok we came further down to touch that trendline and daily pp, ONL, also yesterday POC. Slight tick divergence coming in, but not too significant. Long @63.75. Add at 64.75
Tick is correct and getting a good reversal, accel through sd1 up to week vwap/pp
Side note: Came across that futurestrader71 stat that price will hit either the ONH/L during RTH 97% of the time. Thought this was pretty interesting.
Ranging
___________________________________________
Done for the day. Going to do my write up now. Below is all sim trading. Focusing more on entries rather than exits.


1. Had a long bias going into the day, so was looking to get long off the open. Had a huge gap up from the previous days close, so some of it got filled. Got long at yesterdays high, and again at weekly vwap/pp.
2. Took profit below vwap for a couple points to pay for my stop, above vwap then a runner to R1. Saw bearish tick divergence so lowered my target to below R1 All hit. Looking to get back in at vwap.

3. Long at vwap, took profit to pay for stop, added to position at vwap again. GOes against me. This is where I discover the play from intelcap above.
4. Exit 3 for a loss. Looking short for the day as range was broken and a_down is in play.

5. Short on pullback just below weekly vwap/pp. Add to the position on confirmation.
6. Take profit to pay for stop, then place target at daily pp and long term trendline, which come together. Target hit.

7. Pretty good bullish tick divergence identified, signaling a reversal. Long on retrace to daily PP, add on confirmation at yesterday POC.
8. Again take profit to pay for stop, then again at key resistance of weekly pp/vwap. Would've had runner that would be reversed at 9.

9. Price breaks out of the range and continues lower, as intelcaps play on this type of day would say. Stop out long runner at POC, then short on pullback to trendline/daily pp. Take some profit at next key level of 60.


1. Getting a bearish divergence with tick printing lower highs while price coming up to the same levels. Can't break through. Price reverses and is bearish for rest of day from here.

2. Confirms the above point. Lower lows while price remains high.

3. Decent confirmation of a bottom being made. Not divergence but a higher low being made on both.

4. More confirmation on the bottom. TIck making new highs while price is down. Price then does reverse for about 3 points into a range.



5: Price is staying high within 2 ticks but tick prints lower highs and lower lows.

6: Higher highs on tick, lower highs on price. Bottom end of tick confirms reversal

7: Higher highs on ES, Lower highs on Tick. Expecting bearish reversal. Ended up only getting a small pullback as price churned up into the close. False signal I'd say

Have a good weekend guys.

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  #68 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
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Comeback King View Post
I believe that for a mouse trader manual back testing is superior to mechanical back testing. Yes, it is less efficient and will take much longer but I also think you learn some things from going back through charts like that, particularly if you go slowly and keep an open mind so you can absorb the information a little better.

Totally agree here. Only spent a few hours doing it last night and saw so many new things that I never really noticed, or subconsciously chose to ignore them to confirm previous bias.

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  #69 (permalink)
 
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 Comeback King 
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FT71 has some pretty good stats on his website. Rancho Dinero also keeps a few good stats on the ES. @metricsmaestro has an enormous amount of ES statistics, maybe even an overwhelming amount - you'd have to pick and choose which ones are meaningful to you.

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  #70 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
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All done on sim:
So today I was be able to be in front of the screen from 9:55-10:50 because I started back up with class today. I did my best to develop a thesis by assessing the ON session as well as the open. I identified the 5 min OR and added 2 points both ways to define A Up/Down.

Thesis Development:
-YPOC closed 4 points higher than the previous day
-9 point bull reversal into weekly vwap at end of day Friday
-Increasing volume past 2 green days at bottom of last 3 week range

Pre-Open Thesis: Bullish today, looking for target @ retest of monthly vwap

9:55:
3 point OR, low volume. Looking to add at weekly/daily vwap.
10:18:
Filled 1 @ 2369.25 @ ORL after failed A_down.
Filled 1 @ 2368 @ D/W Vwap
Set my targets at 70.75 and 71.75 2 ONH and just under ORH respectively.

Like these trades because close to ONL, so if I am wrong and price breaks through that area I can potentially flip and make it back.

10:50:
I had to go to class and wouldn't be back for the day but would be able to monitor the market a little from my phone. Nothing being shown in the tick, volume still low.
I set another buy order at 2366 @ SD2 - filled while in class at 11:30
Target @70 @ sd1, set from my phone.

All targets got filled throughout the day, and the 2366 area ended up being the bottom so didn't take much heat on it.

P/L: 9.25 Points
Max Drawdown: -3.75-2.5-.5 = -6.75 points

Very happy with my thesis and plan for the day. Obviously a very small range today, as ADR was 15 going into today and we got an RTH range of 7.5.



Currently I am trying to get together a RVOL indicator for tos like intelcap shown in intelcaps journal, which has been a huge part of turning my trading around to trading a thesis, something that will benefit me in the long run. I am also trying to make an RTH VWAP script. I have no idea how to code and emailed the tos thinkscript support, but would love any help you guys can offer in creating these indicators.

So let me know what you guys think about my trading today. I wasn't really in front of the screen so wasn't feeling the pain of the drawdown from this style which will be by far the hardest obstacle to overcome. Is a max drawdown of 6.75 points good for this type of day and for a profit of 9.25 points? Am I calculating this right?

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