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Didn't get a signal until 10:10. Was getting pretty anxious.
Signal 1: Perfect signal. Set my limit order to be 1.5 above stop. Didn't get filled. Glad I fought the urge to chase the trade. On to the next
Signal 2: Got filled, small risk of .75. Ran into a little range. Target filled at 1.25. +1.25
Signal 3: Saw buying coming in but took the trade. Trying to stick to the system as much as possible. Stopped out. -1.25
Signal 4: Long @ 69.25. Price has stalled. Risking 1.5, Target of 2. Red Candle in the other direction. Sticking with it. Don't want to get in the habit of manually closing. Update: it's been a tense 20 minutes or whatever it was. Wifi went down in the middle of the trade. Tos has a great app so been managing from my phone. Already had my oco bracket order in so orders were in the books. Got filled for +2 @ 71.25. Tension over. Still working on wifi. +2
Wifi fixed, back up.
Price has continued through 74 without any significant pullback. Being patient.
Signal 5: Long at 76.25, Risk 1.25, Target 1.75. Could be the top of the trend, but got the signal so sticking to it. We'll see how much this move has left in it. Stopped out, -1.25
Signal 6: short @ 74.50, risk 1.25, target 1.75. Tough set up as price is pulling back to Fridays low for support. We'll see if itll breakthrough. Trading in a tight range, getting anxious about it. Almost closed it manually but fighting it. Stopped out about an hour later. -1.25
Signal 7: Didn't get filled and didn't chase it out of my risk parameters. Would've been a great trade if I got filled at 76.
Thats a wrap on day 1. Not much goin on today, and below average number of signals for my strategy. Didn't get filled on 2 of them due to hesitation. Obviously easier to get filled in the sim, so will have to work on anticipating the close of a candle more to get in at a better spot and not compromise my risk parameters. Overall not a good day, but not a bad day either.
Pros:
Didn't chase any trades
No emotional trading
Followed my strategy, didn't manually close anything or move stops
Cons:
Hesitated on entries
2nd guessed myself while in a few trades
Didn't identify the right setup, in hindsight
With that out of the way, just wanted to let you know as another guy in his 20's trying to get a handle on the markets, that you seem to be going about things in a really great way that I could certainly learn from. Also jealous of your internship, so way to go with that too!
You are more organized than me as far as the excel spreadsheet (I've been looking into journaling software because I'm lazy), and your overall approach and willingness to journal and listen to feedback should lead you to success if you stick with it, especially with time on your side.
Glad you finally went live, it's hard to get use to having actual skin in the game, but your discipline with risk should allow you to safely learn even if you lose money at times.
Haha got many friends that are cowboy fans. Congrats on the young core. Must be nice to be excited about the future of your team...
Seriously though thanks for the words of encouragement. I'm trying to go about it in the most organized way possible because that is just how I learn and remember things best. I like concrete numbers.
Going live today was definitely a little different than the sim in terms of what goes on in your head with a trade on, especially when it is going against you. The number 1 thing I want to accomplish is to have no manually exited trades, no stops moved, etc...
There are a couple kinks in my strategy that have to be worked out with time that can't just be fixed with a calculation. Being in the market live changes a couple things in terms of fills, so gotta get that figured out.
Again, thanks for the kind words and good luck to you as well! I'll be following you in the scalpers journey thread.
Opening volume so far is a little flat. Anxious to get a winning day, but have to stay patient and stick to the plan.
Signal 1: Short signal right at the key area of 67. Had to risk 1.75, target of 2.25. quick follow through with hitting stops, then buyers came back strong. Stopped out. -1.75. Ouch
Signal 2: Chased the trade 1 tick, but like the set up. Short risk 1.5, target of 2. Hitting resistance @ vwap. Agonizing! Moved stop up under new swing low. Risking 1, moved target down to 1.75. Target hit, +1.75.
Shouldn't have moved my target up. Waited through the vwap pause, price came through so there will be an acceleration. Should have trusted myself. Can't be doing this type of thing. A 1.75xR trade is good. Max drawdown was .75. Trust the system!
Signal 3: Had trouble getting filled, but got it eventually. At the top of the overnight range. Not much room to go. Daily pivot. Long, risk 1.25 target 1.75. Trusting the system -1.25
Signal 4: Learning to anticipate a little better. Had to get short during a green candle. Have to see order flow. Risk 1, Target 1.25 @ vwap. Target hit. Expecting buying to come in here. key level with confluence. +1.25
Signal 5: Screwed myself. Set my entry order a tick too high trying to lower risk because I thought there would be more buying. Would've been a good trade. Really kicking myself here. Tried to be greedy.
Noticing $tick made a lower low, but price is still above the LOD
Need to learn more about volume profile and what timeframes to be looking at for that.
Now Tick making a new high with little upward momentum. What is this telling me? Still don't really understand how to read tick, vix, etc... divergences. Could use some help with this.
Signal 6: Short signal after some retracement on the big down move. Risk 1.25, target 1.75 to low of yesterday. Went my way quick, but didnt hit. Came within 1 tick of target. Want to get out manually but wont do it. Stopped out. Damn. -1.25
Consolidation at vwap
Signal 7: Got into a trade trying to anticipate. We'll see if we get a signal, or if i got in too soon. Tick also made new low with price not following through. Ended up getting a signal. Just want to take profit off with the low atr but sticking to the plan. Caved, took profit @ +.75. See if it was a good or bad decision. Didn't want to lose on this trade to get to -2 points on the day. Seemed to be losing buyers.
Signal 8: Don't love this set up but will take it. CLoser to a 1R. Risk 1.5, target 1.75. Gonna walk away from the screen and just let this one work. Stopped -1.5
Extremely frustrating there. If i never manually exited on trade 7, would not have stopped out and would have eventually hit my profit target. Instead, manually closed then went the other way on trade 8 to get stopped out there. Now down 2 points on the day instead of being up .25, a 2.5 point swing!!! Live and learn!
Signal 9: In a consolidation area. LL and LH, should be short on next red. - Didn't take the trade out of fear to be honest. Would've been a 2 point risk for a 2.5 target. See if it would've paid. - Wow. Huge breakdown through the low. Would've been a great trade for my system. Way too in my head today. Disappointing.
P/L: -2.
Very disappointing day, but a good day to learn from. The first trade of the day with a loss of 1.75 really shook me. Had the mentality of just trying to get back to even for the day instead of looking at each trade individually. This ended up making me not want to risk my normal amount on a trade, so missed it entirely. Then got scared to do the same thing again later, which would've been very profitable as well. Took profits early on a trade and got out instead of trusting it. Overall, need to not be scared to lose, especially on these short range days. I know this system doesn't work as well on these types of days and will make it back on trend days.
Pros: Ha
Cons:
-Didn't trust myself in trade 2, moved up target
-Missed trade entirely
-Got too emotional, didn't trust system
-Manually exited
-Entered trade too early
If I had followed my system today, I would've made 4.5 points, compared to losing 2! Have to execute!
Hey guys- I am adding more context to my trading today. Paying more attention to the tick, ONH/L, Value area, etc...
Open right at yesterdays POC , WTD POC and the ONH. Expecting a little sell off with the tick starting under 0.
Very low opening volume.
Signal 1: False signal, got in too early. -1. Bad start. Pissed at myself but have to let it go.
Signal 2: Support at ONH/Open/yesterday POC. Long, risk 1.5, target 2. Stopped out, -1.5
Going long on next signal as of now. Signal 2 was tough to tell whether to go long or wait to short, so will identify in here for myself.
Signal 3: Long signal off pullback, risk .75, target 1.25. Stopped out @.75
Signal 4: Long at POC, huge key area for today. Got a good fill, risk .75, target 1.25. Target hit +1.25
Really want to continue to progress towards trading levels like most successful guys here instead of this type of scalping system. Still confident in it, but in the long run that is the ultimate plan.
Getting very range bound right at POC. Be patient
Signal 5: Not gonna take this short until more volume starts coming in. At the bottom of the range Would've gotten stopped out.
Signal 6: Short, risk 1.5, target of 2. Fell through the range and POC with volume, nervous it hit a bottom at vwap, 200 MA, range of yesterday. Closed at +.5 looking to get in on next short
Signal 7: Risk 1.25, Target 1.25. Target hit. Got nervous and set target low, even though I knew it was a breakout. Missed out on big trades. Only took out 1.75 out of this break. Not good. Not following my plan completely. Nervous on where I'm getting filled and all that. Have to follow it. Had my target originally closer to 2.25 above the overnight POC!!!
Signal 8: I think we hit a bottom, but will follow the system. Short, risk 1.25, target 1.75. Price explodes up, stopped out. Sucks but am getting a better feel with different levels and using the $tick
Huge low tick, see what price does. As long as it doesn't get down to the previous low of -900, it should be an area where buying comes in, I think.
Sucks to lose on trade 8 but my hypo was right about the divergence of the tick and price, as well as the sentence above. I'll do some extensive research on this to see if this can help me spot reversals to eliminate that lost trade at the bottom of a trend. Have to eliminate alot of user error right now as well obviously.
Signal 9: Long towards the top of the days range, nervous. Risk 1.25, target 1.75. Buyers not coming in. Alot of absorbtion into the bid. Stopped -1.25. Another example of tick showing a reversal. Price stayed within 2 ticks of the top while the $tick was making lower highs and eventually a lower low. Price soon followed down.
Signal 10: Entered too early AGAIN! Can't be doing this. -1.25
Signal 11: Normal signal, again at the extreme of the range, but have to take it. Stopped out, -1.25.
Signal 12: Another easy signal, risk 1, target 1.5. Ton of red on the time and sales. Quickly stopped -1
Signal 13: Clear one, stopped - 1.5
Signal 14: Saw a pattern with upward pressure at the close. Went flat at 4ET for +.75. COmputer froze but got filled. risk 1, target of 1.75, filled .75
Think I'm done for the day. After reviewing, I should've been at 2 wins, 6 losses. I added 2 losses to that by entering on no true signal, and moved my profit targets up on winning trades. so went 2-9 with a lower average win and the same average loss. Can't win like that.
Either way would've been a losing day with the system which makes me feel a little better, but can't blame the market. Yesterday would've
-6.75 on the day. Hurts but will continue to learn and stick with it.
Below is a chart of the $tick and es, both 3 minute. There is a divergence between the two at the bottom end. I drew lines and arrows to show where I'm looking at. The tick made a new low while the ES has made a higher low. Does this divergence tell me price will continue lower eventually and is lagging, or price has hit a low and the $tick is lagging?
So here is what I found after doing some back testing on the week:
I remembered reading this in @GruttePier 's journal a while back and thought i'd look into it more.
It is not beneficial to look at the extremes of the tick as highs and lows in the market. This will get you screwed, like buying whenever RSI hits 30 or 20 or whatever. The key to using this as a tool to spot reversals is to see the divergence between price and where the tops/bottoms of the tick is printing at that time. I have charted out today to give the clearest examples I can in my mind.
I drew red trend lines with numbers next to them to show these divergences. They directly correlate to the same trendlines in the ES chart, meaning they show the same times.
The left image is the $tick, the right is the ES, both 3m charts. The solid white bars are "red" candles, while the others are "green".
Arrow 1: $tick has printed a new low for the day, breaking the one from 10:12, but price is at a higher level at 11:06 than it was at 10:12. This is a sign that price will soon reverse and fall, which it does about 4 points.
Arrow 2: Great example here. $tick makes a new low as price is falling rapidly and makes a new swing low at a support are at 11:30. Price falls again to a new low at 11:45, but the tick prints a higher low. This is a sign that price will reverse higher, and it does more than 5 points.
Arrow 3: This is another sign of higher prices to come off of the reversal at arrow 2. A new high $tick is printed while price is significantly below the level where it last printed a new high. Price continues up 3 points from here.
Arrow 4/5: Price has churned up a few ticks since the new high $tick was printed, but there has been no significant high tick printed since then until 1:00, which is shown by line 4. Arrow 5 is confirming this churn up with new higher lows being printed each candle, while price is following in the same pattern. This is a mixed signal, showing me that price is acting normally until that attempt at a new high tick is printed, which would signal a potential reversal. Here, price then broke out to the upside for 2 points then reversed, which was signaled by the tick as well.
Arrow 6: Here the tick has finally broken out and price has hit key resistance. I was long here when the Tick came back to 0 and that first green candle printed. Price goes up and hits that same resistance 2 times, while the tick is way lower. SIgnals a reversal, and this was correct for about 8 points.
Arrow 7/8: Had to bring this line out to the left to see it better. Used highlights to see the exact candles and areas we're looking at. Price is accelerating to the downside and tick makes a significant new low below -800. Price continues to fall while the tick begins to print higher lows. Arrow 8 shows a new significant high tick while price is lower than where it was. Sign of reversal/confirmation of reversal. Correct for about 4 points.
Arrow 9/10: This one was tough to spot, but shows exhaustion and a potential reversal. Price continues to print higher and is pushing while the tick prints lower highs at 9 and lower lows at 10. Sign of exhaustion. Correct for about 5 points.
Arrow 11: Another great example. Tick prints a new daily low along with a huge drop in price. 6 minutes later, a higher low is printed while price goes lower, then another 6 minutes later tick prints another higher low while price continues a little lower. Sign of reversal at the close. Correct for about 3 points.
Let me know what you guys think. Might make a new thread about this.
I've read about others that talk about $TICK spikes and divergence. One guy uses Bollinger bands around a 5-minute $TICK chart and looks for spikes outside of the bands as a potential impulse high/low.
There's a lot out there on divergences. I tried trading an indicator divergence that matched up with VWAP standard deviation band stretches. In back testing it seemed to work okay but I was uncomfortable with live trading it.
Anyway, there is definitely some logic to what you're looking at. Lance Beggs talks about that same thing. I don't think it's a bad thing to keep an eye on for sure. You might need to identify the day type though and not really consider this type of thing on a trend day. Since we've had many of those lately you may want to go back and review the divergences on those days to see what it looked like.
Edit: Thought I'd add just one more thought. I would recommend being very selective with the things you end up adding to what you look at. No actual successful trader has ever said something like, "The more you look at the better you will trade". In fact it's quite the opposite. Any truly profitable trader will tell you that less is more.
If you've not watched Floored, it's a good movie - both from an educational perspective and it's entertainment value (at least for our crowd).
Around the 45th minute is where Linda Radske is in the movie. Around minute 47 she talks about all of the screens around her but what she really pays attention to. I never forget that part of the movie...pure simplicity. Less is more.
Thanks for the reply ck. I will watch that movie tonight. That makes sense about the trend days. I only backtested one so will go back the last few weeks and look. I also looked at the bollinger band stuff and it seems like it's not too reliable. I have them on my chart and at least for range days they usually don't show many good areas of s/r.
Ill get back to you tonight. Thanks for the reply.
