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Sim until otherwise noted
Able to analyze the open today and do some trading after 1230 because the storm got classes canceled!
Thesis development:
Coming up to monthly vwap on daily chart, lower volume yesterday than previous 2 bull days
Opening below weekly pp and probably right at sd1 below weekly vwap
Yesterdays POC lower than previous day by about 4-5 points
Sold off overnight from top of high volume area that has developed over last 15 sessions
PPI and CPI came in higher than expected, which could push the fed to raise rates tomorrow
Pre-Open Thesis: Pretty confident on a bearish day today. Everything pointing to price going lower.
Sell off in the morning down to around 2357 where weekly s1 and the bottom of volume range come together.
Breaking below OR and D_S2 will confirm down trend I believe
Daily S3 historically very good support at 2355
Monitor tick for exhaustion around these levels
9:40:
Decent volume with 3 point OR.
short just below vwap, probably wouldn't get filled here @65.50
9:50: break through OR/S2
10:00: Consolidating at A_Down. Short on pullback to sd1 @61
Targets @ 59, 57 and 55
All filled
10:45: Hit S3, at very bottom of high volume range and close to previous week low, higher low tick
11:15: Price accelerates through sd1, showing a reversal off support below, higher tick readings
Take short at A_Down @ 60
Add @ ORL/s2/ONL @ 62
Targets @ A_Down 60, SD1 @ 57.75, S3 @ 55
First 2 hit, move stop up to 2 ticks below BE
Stopped out
Making HL, Hitting up against ORL. Long bias into close
In late but long at 62 at top of range. Target at week vwap at 64
Target hit right at EOD
Another quick 3 month manual back test on monthly pivot points on a daily chart.
If the day opens on a side of the monthly pivot point, price will close at or on the same side of that PP about 75% of the time. i.e day opens at 70, monthly pp is at 65. Price goes to 60 midday. 75 % chance that price will reverse and close at or above 65.
Edit: After a year back test it came out to 69%
This was a very rough test on a decent time period so I am taking it with a little significance to help my pre open analysis but not much.
Also found that when the open was close to the pp it had less significance on it. Should open at least 5-6 points away for it to have some decent pull.
Thesis Development:
CPI came in at expected
Rate decision today- expecting raise. 64% probability
High volume on bullish reversal into close yesterday
5 point opening gap to upside
Thesis:
Expecting a rate hike, and the bull strength doesn't look too great, so pretty neutral on the day until the announcment. Look to short around R1/YH/A_Up/ONH. If it goes against me its low risk and can flip.
9:50:
3 Point OR, average volume
10:00:
Ranging
10:30:
Took a quick 10 tick short on CL 4 minutes after the report from vwap to sd1
Short 1 ES@ 70.25 Target 67 Tick making new significant LL
End of day:
Well, haha was clearly wrong on that. Should have known that the rate hike was priced in. I have not been back to my laptop since 11 so was disappointed but could have been a good day if I was at the helm. The statement was pretty strong for equities and came right at R1 and A_Up. Once A_up was made I could have flipped and gotten a decent day out of it. Also kept hitting a trendline i drew this morning which ended up confluing with sd1 so could have been good spots to add long.
We had good acceleration through monthly vwap. Market seems very bullish after breakout of channel and consolidation the last few days. Next logical target is 2400. If price can break 88...
I will do a trade/p/l break down later tonight.
Great day to learn from.
In hindsight it could have been a good day, but every day is good in hindsight! Being able to see the right side of the chart is always nice...
Entries and targets are based off key levels off HTF's and current time frame. Today A_Up was made and turned into a bull trend day. Looking to enter long on pullbacks to SD1, exit at pivots.
Thesis Development:
Strong bull day yesterday
Opening above weekly pp
Opening gap above strong trendline
Open below ETH vwap
Thesis:
Can expect a pullback, but pretty bullish for this reversal to continue higher in the future.
Look to get long at low of OR and add to it
Short 1 @ 80.25, target 77.50- Trendline and below ONL
Missed my fill by 1 tick.
Closed at BE, Didn't like bounce off trend
Long 1 @ 80 target 81.75, filled 77.75. -.25
Looking to add below if it gets there
Well, should've stayed patient and stuck with my original trade. Dangerous but now going counter trend hunting. Looking for a bounce at Weekly pp
Long 1@ 76, Filled @ 78 +2
Update: Havent been back at my screen since 12. Was monitoring from my phone. Ended up getting filled on that last trade at the end of the day. Great entry at the low. Saw tick divergence and other key levels and stuck with it. Will have a full write up in a little. +9.75
Was great to be able to trade the whole morning and get a feel for it. Was looking for a reversal which is never a good idea and can get you trapped, so have to avoid this in the future. Should have stayed with my original short and rode it out until I saw a reversal coming at that key level. Would have caught both sides of the day instead of just 1. Overall, a good day, but still a lot to improve on.
1 question: Is it smart to switch to RTH vwap/pivots over the ETH an hour after the open? Seems like that seems to be the consensus, but could use some clarification on this.
Thesis Development:
Still pretty bullish and expecting market to eventually test 2400.
Opening above Monthly/weekly pp and vwaps
HL overnight
Opening near close, yesterdays poc
Thesis:
Going to react to what I see but generally looking long.
2373, 2364 key support
2380, 2383, 2389 resistance
Went short at 77.25 on a second break of OR. Didn't love it and was against my bias, got out at +.5
Went long at 77.50. Stalled at vwap and continuing down to weekly pp. Order at 74 and missed by 1 tick.
Missed another fill at 73.50 on tick divergence
Missed fills killed me! Glad I was able to identify the reversal though.
Missed my target at 79 by 1 tick again.
Moved target up to 80.75. Filled
Slow morning. Missed fills killed me but happy that I am identifying the types of days as they happen and reversal points. +3.75
Below is divergence I saw. Missed fills on both swing lows by 1 tick each!
Also made a trade in CL today. Not much movement going on but saw an oppurtunity to get back to vwap. +12 ticks
Not sure if this is right but it seems that price respects the ETH vwap and Pivots when there is less RTH volume than normal, and respects RTH vwap/pivots on normal and above average volume days.
From now on, going to go with RTH vwap/pivots 30 min after open, but going to stay aware of where eth vwap is.
Seems like it's been a crazy day. Have been watching from my phone. Lesson to always follow the trend and be able to reverse your original train of thought.
Super busy week. Will get a review in this weekend. Just got to my screen and got a few quick trades off
Long Cl @ sd1 and key 48 area. Long 47.98, cover 48.05 +7
Long ES from vwap to SD1, ORH, filled 40.50, out 43.25 +2.75 points, 11 ticks
Fired off a few more trades:
Wet short ES at 43.75 at sd1 and didn't like it, so reversed position.
Added 1 at 43. Hit targets of 44.5 and 46.50. +4.25, 17 ticks
quick 35 ticks on the day just getting in at good positions based off vwap and OR
Biggest question I have right now is to know when to get out of a trade and cut losses.
