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Bear Down! Trading Journal

  #31 (permalink)
 
Dabears2322's Avatar
 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: ES, CL, GC, ZB, YM, NQ
Posts: 131 since Jan 2017
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Another missed day that looks like it would've been profitable. Should have some time to get into the market on Thursday.

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  #32 (permalink)
 
Dabears2322's Avatar
 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: ES, CL, GC, ZB, YM, NQ
Posts: 131 since Jan 2017
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Got a quick trade in today. Market was selling off at the open.

Trade 1: Short at 2280.50, cover 2279. Basic set up. Should've trusted it a little more and gotten in 2 ticks earlier. +1.5

+1.5



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  #33 (permalink)
 
Dabears2322's Avatar
 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: ES, CL, GC, ZB, YM, NQ
Posts: 131 since Jan 2017
Thanks Given: 63
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Overnight sentiment seemed a neutral to a bit negative. Market opened up with the TICK and ADSPD both up, VIX down. Expecting a bull trend up towards 76, todays pivot. Then could see some chop and possible retest of lows.

10:20AM:
Trade 1: Long at 72.25, puke at 70.75. Set my stop at 1.5 too get a better risk reward instead of setting it below the last low. Stupid mistake and have to avoid this in the future. Barely got stopped out then price reversed and continued in my direction. Could've been a great trade if I went with my normal parameters. Live and learn, again. -1.5

Trade 2: Got long after that mistake at 73. Was a little high at the time IMO so went for a 1R trade and only risked 1 point. Again, could've gotten a little more out of this trade but was happy to recognize my previous mistake and not be afraid to get back in. Cover at 74. +1

Trade 3: Short at 72. Already don't like this trade as the 50 MA is coming up on the 200 MA right as price is about to come down on it. Going to ride it out and see what happens.
Stopped out. Trend continuation. See if we get a double top here or a continuing of this trend. -2
Looking back on this trade I should not have taken it as it was right at a few support levels and didn't get below the previous swing high. Should've stuck with my long bias and looked for that pullback. Was hesitant to get in in the first place and should've noticed these things right away, instead of seeing it in hindsight. Have to do a better job screening everything relevant instead of just looking at the changing of the color of candle.
81 is the next key volume level.

Have been pressed for time since yesterday. Rest of my trades are in the spreadsheet.

Ended up +1 on the day. Should've been better.


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  #34 (permalink)
 
Dabears2322's Avatar
 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Beginner
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Wow, can't believe it's been almost 2 weeks since I last posted/actively traded. Been crazy busy, so time flew I guess! Things should slow down a little so should be able to get back in. Been monitoring the markets everyday, but havent been able to actually sit down and trade.

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  #35 (permalink)
 
Dabears2322's Avatar
 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Beginner
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Note to self: No trading until after 9:45 AM ET. After some extensive back testing, this seems like the best place to set my entry time at. Any time until 4 PM should be great. Wish I could get into trading full time after back testing this past week, but just can't right now. I should be able to devote all of my time to trading, taking an online class and working part time jobs at night this summer.

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  #36 (permalink)
 
Dabears2322's Avatar
 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Beginner
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Posts: 131 since Jan 2017
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First losing day today for this strategy. . Need to recognize a range day sooner if possible, but not really sure how to know for sure. Almost have 90 Trades in, from both simulated trading and some conservative back testing. If I can learn how to see these range days developing earlier, I can take tighter profit targets.

All in all, these days happen and its actually good to see on the sim. I have spring break in a week and a half and am planning on going live for that week to test the waters, unless you guys advise against this. I will post my spreadsheet once I hit 100 trades, which should be by the end of the week.

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  #37 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
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Most frustrating thing is when your stop is 1 tick too tight, and then price goes in your favor and would've hit your target! Part of trading. Did some calculations:

Have stopped out 34 times. Out of those, 5 of the times my stop was too tight by 1 tick. In those 5 situations I would've made a total of 9 points profit. For the other 29 times, if I had my stop 1 tick looser, I would've lost another 7.5 points.

Overall, If my stop was 1 tick looser, I would've made an additional 1.5 points of profit.

I don't think it is, but does anyone here think it would be worth it to screw with my RR a little by loosening my stop by 1 more tick, but not moving my profit targets to make sure I don't stop out as much, or is about 14% a small percentage for stops being too tight?

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  #38 (permalink)
 
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 Comeback King 
Tampa, FL/USA
 
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How are you setting your stops? Are they a fixed number of ticks or are they based on price action? Do you adjust based on volatility?

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  #39 (permalink)
 
Dabears2322's Avatar
 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: ES, CL, GC, ZB, YM, NQ
Posts: 131 since Jan 2017
Thanks Given: 63
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Based on price action, 1 tick away from the previous swing high/low.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

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  #40 (permalink)
 
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 Comeback King 
Tampa, FL/USA
 
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Trading: NQ, ES
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That's good - makes it a little easier. It seems like you're on the correct path in terms of making the math work; I'd only be concerned about the sample size. If you have the ability to manually back test to increase your sample size then that might be an option.

I set stops the same as you but I've been adding 2 ticks in most cases, up to 4 ticks if it's more volatile. I do think setting stops based on what the chart says has advantages over fixed stops for sure.

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