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Bear Down! Trading Journal

  #91 (permalink)
 
Comeback King's Avatar
 Comeback King 
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I'm pretty sure I was in that one as well...short from 85.50. That was a tough one to hold and even though there was no reason for me to exit the trade I had to fight back the urge to close it out because price was just chopping around.

Trading with no risk on the table can be pretty straightforward I suppose, but throw some actual risk on it gets a lot harder.

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  #92 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
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Comeback King View Post
I'm pretty sure I was in that one as well...short from 85.50. That was a tough one to hold and even though there was no reason for me to exit the trade I had to fight back the urge to close it out because price was just chopping around.

Trading with no risk on the table can be pretty straightforward I suppose, but throw some actual risk on it gets a lot harder.

Exactly. Was right around there around 10 am. Got out a minute before it fell. Still learning!

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  #93 (permalink)
 
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 Comeback King 
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Well, I've been kicked more times than I can count and it still has not sunk in. The way I see it, I appreciate being punished for deviating from my plan because it gives me negative reinforcement. If I am rewarded for not following my plan (maybe I avoid a loss because of it) then I receive positive feedback that's actually dangerous. So while it sucks when I bail on a trade (or skip it outright) that ends up running for a nice profit, I'm still thankful for the lesson in the end.

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  #94 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
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You're exactly right on that. Really appreciate the comments CK

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  #95 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
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Dabears2322 View Post
Friday- Going to type out trades here that I would do with a different style like Intelcap. I will still trade my system live

Broke a channel overnight, so have a long bias.

Open selling off, would look to go long @ sd1 at 2369
Weekly vwap and weekly pp confluence
Opening gap of about 7 points. Some of it getting filled.
Attempt to get through yesterdays high/a_down
Add at weekly vwap/pp @68.25
Don't know how to go about setting targets yet, but I assume I would've taken profit off at this point somewhere, up 4 and 5 points respectively.
Failed a_down
Acceleration through vwap, add on pullback to ORL

Signal 1 (real): Long at vwap 72.50, risk 1.5, target 2.75 towards ONH. Stopped -1.5

After looking through IC's journal again, I saw a day that looked exactly like today so far. And its starting to play out like that as I type this. Except inverted.


And it plays out just like this day! Failed A_Down, back into OR, Top at top of OR while tick is diverging, bounce off vwap with lower highs, lower tick, acceleration through vwap, sd1, weekly vwap/pp, now gettting a pullback to weekly pp/vwap and sd1, short here. Only thing is that his played out a lot slower and throughout the whole day while today has been quick and price came down to a key trendline that was broken out of last night, so might rather be long biased.

Ok we came further down to touch that trendline and daily pp, ONL, also yesterday POC. Slight tick divergence coming in, but not too significant. Long @63.75. Add at 64.75
Tick is correct and getting a good reversal, accel through sd1 up to week vwap/pp
Side note: Came across that futurestrader71 stat that price will hit either the ONH/L during RTH 97% of the time. Thought this was pretty interesting.
Ranging
___________________________________________
Done for the day. Going to do my write up now. Below is all sim trading. Focusing more on entries rather than exits.


1. Had a long bias going into the day, so was looking to get long off the open. Had a huge gap up from the previous days close, so some of it got filled. Got long at yesterdays high, and again at weekly vwap/pp.
2. Took profit below vwap for a couple points to pay for my stop, above vwap then a runner to R1. Saw bearish tick divergence so lowered my target to below R1 All hit. Looking to get back in at vwap.

3. Long at vwap, took profit to pay for stop, added to position at vwap again. GOes against me. This is where I discover the play from intelcap above.
4. Exit 3 for a loss. Looking short for the day as range was broken and a_down is in play.

5. Short on pullback just below weekly vwap/pp. Add to the position on confirmation.
6. Take profit to pay for stop, then place target at daily pp and long term trendline, which come together. Target hit.

7. Pretty good bullish tick divergence identified, signaling a reversal. Long on retrace to daily PP, add on confirmation at yesterday POC.
8. Again take profit to pay for stop, then again at key resistance of weekly pp/vwap. Would've had runner that would be reversed at 9.

9. Price breaks out of the range and continues lower, as intelcaps play on this type of day would say. Stop out long runner at POC, then short on pullback to trendline/daily pp. Take some profit at next key level of 60.


1. Getting a bearish divergence with tick printing lower highs while price coming up to the same levels. Can't break through. Price reverses and is bearish for rest of day from here.

2. Confirms the above point. Lower lows while price remains high.

3. Decent confirmation of a bottom being made. Not divergence but a higher low being made on both.

4. More confirmation on the bottom. TIck making new highs while price is down. Price then does reverse for about 3 points into a range.



5: Price is staying high within 2 ticks but tick prints lower highs and lower lows.

6: Higher highs on tick, lower highs on price. Bottom end of tick confirms reversal

7: Higher highs on ES, Lower highs on Tick. Expecting bearish reversal. Ended up only getting a small pullback as price churned up into the close. False signal I'd say

Have a good weekend guys.

Very similar day to the one shown above so far by Intelcap. Was able to buy the bottom today, then got scared and dumped it for a tick. Would be up 7 points right now. Gotta stop being scared to lose.

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  #96 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
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It has been a crazy busy summer, much busier than expected. I have not been able to trade live or even some light sim stuff once. I have been checking the markets briefly every night and trying to keep my mind in the game. Sucks because I was finally starting to get a good feel, patience and confidence. Next time I will be able to get back into it will hopefully be september, but definitely late november into december. My goal is to pass a topstep combine and get funded in November/December when I have free time. Then will be able to trade in the spring/role into summer and see how everything is then.

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  #97 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
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Did a little trading yesterday as work ended for me on Monday so have a few days off here. Wasn't happy with how slow ES was moving and was down 3 ticks on the day. Switched over to NQ at the end of the day and made a quick $100 with some scalps off of VWAP and OR. Really liked how much it moved, especially compared to ES, so decided to try and trade soley the NQ today. Also like it because it is $5 a tick instead of $12.50

New Home, EIA and FOMC announcment all today. Be flat during these times.
Goals for the day were to follow the strategy of scalping off of key levels and to stay patient, not exit trades early. Identify key overnight levels and look for type of day i.e A_Up, etc...

Took 17 trades with a pre-com profit of 60 ticks, post com $200
Average profit per trade a little over 3 ticks
Only 2 trades where price went through my order and ended up adding to it at next level. Overall no losing trades.
Best areas where price would bounce were the ORL/H and VWAP SD3
Price fell through VWAP once and SD1 once

Goals for the future are to maybe look for more profit out of these trades as I was buying and selling great levels, but only trading one lot makes this difficult. The plan right now would to be to have multiple contracts going to be able to let a runner go, but that will come with time.

Overall a good day. Wish I could continue to trade but will have to be on pause for at least the next month after this week. Glad I found that I like NQ as ES is just too slow too often.

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  #98 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
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Should be able to trade most of the day up until 1:30 pm every tuesday and thursday up through december starting next week. Excited to get back into it.

Note: Use volume to confirm bigger moves and hold longer/hold a runner if using multiple contracts.

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  #99 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
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Will start my journal up thursday.

Note: Use ETH for main chart and RTH to see potential slow points or confluence with ETH. Price runs to and from these lines. A cross of the 20 MA seems to be a good sign of a return to the next vwap SD.



A-Down day, so looking to sell on pullbacks to SD1. Continue to sell and will hold until a move through the 20 MA. After that will expect price to return to next major area, usually VWAP.

Red arrows represent selling areas, green represent reversal areas where would be stopped out and potential reversal trade depending on RR

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  #100 (permalink)
 
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 Dabears2322 
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Date:

Key Releases/News:

Yesterday Summary:
Intel Day Type:
Range/Trend Day:
Point Range:

Key Levels:
YHi/Lo:
ONHi/Lo:
YPOC:
Monthly VWAP:

Hypo's:

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Last Updated on January 24, 2018


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