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EURUSD 5min daily analysis


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EURUSD 5min daily analysis

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  #1 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

Hello my name is Josh, I am a price action trader from central florida. I currently post a daily analysis on brookspriceaction forum, and have decided to post it here as well. I will include the link once i am able to do so.


I trade from 8AM to 2PM EST, although my chart template displays from 7AM to 5PM. There are many more trades than what i have marked; i will focus on identifying trades that i saw real time and that i feel have a strong traders equation.

Blue circle = 60 % buy scalp
Blue square= 40-50 % swing buy
Brown circle = 60% sell scalp
Brown square = 40-50 % swing sell


I encourage any questions or comments, as a learning experience for myself as well as you. This review is to help keep me objective and focused on only entering best setups, and help others learn price action. These trades are what beginners (or anyone) should focus on entering. So please feel free to ask about why certain setups are / are not marked, how I determined probability, trade management, or any other related questions.

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  #3 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014


1-3-17




Overnight there was a strong sell off in a second leg down to the bottom of a trading range on the 60 minute chart. Last weeks spike and climax bull trend on the 60 minute chart was a 2 legged pullback / wedge bear flag pullback to the EMA on the daily chart. Today opened with a large gap down, but since prices have mainly gone sideways in a small trading range.

19 two outside bars in opposite directions. nested expanding triangle (16,17,18,19). ttr, limit order market, bears may be waiting and enter again at EMA.
21 bulls are buying below bars but not above, bears selling above but not below. result is a 50/50 market, breakout mode.
22 building buying pressure since 8. only 1 pair of consecutive bear bars, several consecutive bull bars. 2 outside bull bars. but bulls need strong close above EMA or breakout before AIL. still technically AIS since bear gap and 7 spike.
23 strong bull close. possible buy exhaustion (bears waiting to sell EMA). next bar is important; bears dont want 3 consecutive bull bars or strong close above EMA, which would invalidate bear premise of bear flag.
24 doji close just below EMA, no bull follow through. signal bar for wedge bear flag / 2 legged pullback to EMA and double top bear flag with 13. but doji signal bar, ok swing short but prob better to wait if scalping.
27 weak high 1 into EMA and high of bear flag. bopbs to 24, should be sellers above. possible bull channel copied from 13-24 highs but not clear yet.
29 first close above EMA. bears might give up on flag premise. bull channel still possible.
30 bull breakout to new HOD. AIL. bull channel. 29 possible measuring gap.
32 bear EMA gap bar, low 4. but 4 consecutive bull bars and bull channel. bears have been unable to make a scalp since opening sell off.
35 reached mm target based on 29 gap and came within 1 pip of target based on 30. overshot bull trend channel line.
37 strong bear breakout, new LOD. 2 bear bars reversed past 3 hours. bears sold at low.
38 weak reversal attempt after 2 strong bear bars. probably sellers above.
40 two bar reversal after 39 and 37 sell climaxes. but forcing bulls to buy high with large risk, and AIS. bears want to keep 7 and 38 gap open and channel to follow.
44 low 2 bopbs with trapped bulls after a strong bear leg. but doji signal bar.
45 outside bar triggerd 44 low 2 but closed as bull bar.
47 bull breakout, close above EMA. filled bear gap. 47 may become measuring gap, tgt is above 37.
49 signal for a wedge bear flag / EMA gap bar, 2 legs up after bear breakout. but after a sell climax, 6 bull bars, and bears trapped out. mm target still above.
50 high 1 with trapped bears. but buying high.
52 closed at mm target based on 47, but higher mm target based on 49 failed wedge.
66 high 2 at EMA and bopbl to previous HOD. first break of steep bull trend line.

Today was a bull reversal day and could be classified as a trending trading range day or a large trading range day. After prices sold off in a strong sell climax, the bulls came back in aggressively and rallied the market in a strong bull trend before prices again went sideways.

Best trades

32 weak reversal attempt at a new high after 4 strong bull bars and a failed wedge bear flag. also a breakout pullback long to EMA.

46 ii bull setup for a failed low 2 after a sell climax and reversal (40). acceptable scalp but turned into a great swing trade.

50 failed wedge bear flag, bopb high 1 long and variant of a high 2 (49 first push up). was strong enough for a scalp but again turned into a great swing trade.

66 high 2 at EMA after first break of steep bull trend line and a bobpl to previous HOD. could have also entered below 63 for a weak low 1 into low of bull flag and EMA

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 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

1-4-17




Today opened with a gap up to the top of yesterdays afternoon trading range. Both the bulls and bears have been able to make money scalping, bears selling above highs and bulls buying below bars. Prices are currently in a bull channel.

16 failed low 2 but going long into high of trend channel and when bulls are using limit orders below bars.
18 bulls took profits at new high, bears scaled into shorts. two bar reversal but a weak reveral attempt based on context. building selling pressure but no break of bull trend line yet.
21 17 btc bulls scaled in and reached a scalpers profit on second entry.
22 weak low 1/ 2 into EMA and bull trend line. 2 legged pullback.
23 high 2 off bull trend line, but bear signal bar.
26 bears are becoming more aggressive, trying to form lower highs. building selling pressure (alternating bull / bear bars, starting to get consecutive bears). but weak short setup, probably buyers below. form of bopbl from 23 end of bull flag.
28 bull trend channel overshoot and strongest bull bar of the day. came within 1 pip of mm based on 9 spike, but other potential targets. could become measuring gap but more likely exhaustion at this point.
29 reached mm based on small 9-25 trading range. signal for a buy climax and failed bull breakout, and wedge (11,17,29). but 28 gap still open. 11 might be spike for bull channel (began at 14 so might get 1 more push up).
30 29 short did not trigger, weakened bear 29 case. high 1 buy setup but above trend channel line and after a potential buy climax.
34 filled 29 gap making it less likely to be a measuring gap. weak high 2 into bull trend channel line, but selling above needs wide stop.
35 small expanding triangle (30,31,32,34,35). 29-35 potential final bull flag.
36 reached mm based on 29 gap. second buy climax, and trend channel overshoot. also a spike and wedge pattern (17,29,36).
37 two bar reversal, but weak close. weak high 1 after a buy climax.
42 high 1 but after 2 (or 3) buy climaxes and reached a mm based on 35 failed wedge.
44 bears are selling above highs scaling in, bulls are buying below bars / bear closes.
47 variant of a high 2, double bottom bull flag and micro double bottom.
59 first touch of EMA, first close below bull trend line.
60 weak low 1 into EMA and bottom of bull flag.
62 high 2 at EMA and after first break of bull trend line. also a bopbl from 60 break of bear micro channel.
74 high 2 / EMA gap bar. 2 legs down from 53 wedge top. ok swing buy, scalp is questionable since tight micro bear channel since 65. (better to wait for bopb)
76 failed low 1, second EMA gap bar. but several sideways bars, ttr. ok swing, but % probably too low for a scalp. may remain quiet until FOMC announcement at 2.
79 signal for a failed low 2 at bottom of bull flag (2 legs down since 53). also a variant of a second EMA gap bar.


Today was a gap and channel bull trend day. After making a measured move up based on the 29 failed wedge top, prices formed another wedge top which led to 2 legs down and a break of the bull trend line. The bull high was retested on the FOMC news announcement and currently forming a trading range.


Best Trades

23 weak low 1 / 2 into EMA and bull trend line. also a high 2. if bought on a stop above 23 it would be better to swing (bear bar for signal bar), but buying below 22 is acceptable for a scalp.

34 high 2, sideways bull flag pullback to EMA. bopbl to previous HOD. buying into high of bull trend channel and a bear bar for signal bar so swing only.

47 variant of a high 2 (43 high 1), double bottom bull flag and micro double bottom. also a failed low 2 and off bull trend line.

53 wedge top (40,43,53) at the bull trend channel line and mm based on 29 failed wedge. ok swing for 2 legs down, but swing only.

62 high 2 at EMA after first break of bull trend line and first touch of EMA. came 1 pip short of reaching scalpers profit if bought on a stop. alternative was to buy below 60 weak low 1 into EMA and bottom of bull flag which reached a scalpers profit.

74 two legs down from 53 wedge top and first EMA gap bar (also a high 2 and large high 2). since prices were in a small ttr at that point and a bear micro channel it was not strong enough for a scalp.

79 failed low 2 at bottom of bull flag / developing trading range. also a second EMA gap bar. had to hold through news annoucement but reached scalpers profit and turned into a good swing trade.

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 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

1-5-17




The two day spike and bull channel on the 60 minute chart found resistance at the previous high (mm up based on earlier trading range), forming a larger trading range. Overnight the bears were able to break below the trend line and EMA after a spike and three pushes up. The bears should get a second leg down (lower high), or two legs down (higher high) on the 60 min chart. Today will probably have a lot of two sided trading as the bulls and bears fight for follow through. Less likely (but still possible), today will become another strong bull trend day.

17 three bar bull spike after the first break of yesterday pm tight bull channel and first close below EMA. potential mm up based on spike.
18 weak reversal attempt compared to bull spike, probably buyers below.
19 big outside bull bar, could become measuring gap or exhaustion. bulls were able to make scalp buying above 8 high.
20 bulls were able to keep 19 gap open, mm target is near highs of bull channel / trading range on 60 min.
21 possible buy climax to mm target based on 17 spike, but still mm above based on 19. little to no selling pressure, too risky to short yet. bears probably waiting for higher prices to sell.
22 two bar reversal, but 19 restarted bear count and bears were trapped (10 pip failure) selling 8 high so a stop entry is unlikely to reach a scalpers profit.
23 first close below tight bull channel since 15. bears were able to make a scalp selling 21 close, but more likely due to profit taking at mm target more than bears selling. bulls will not want next bar to close as bear bar.
24 another 10 pip failure for bears who shorted below 22. high 1 after first break of bull trend line, but last high 1 (20) did not reach scalpers profit. probably better to wait for second entry if scalping.
27 21 btc bulls scaled in and were able to exit breakeven on test of 27.
28 came within a pip of reaching 19 mm target. second buy climax, but potential spike and bull channel.
29 bears sold above 22 /28 close, but weak bear context. more likely to become bull flag at this point.
31 bears still unable to get 3 consecutive bars. bulls buying below bars / bear closes, bears selling highs and scaling in. suspected bull channel but not yet confirmed.
34 weak low 1 / 2 into bull trend line. probably buyers below for bopbl from 33 breakout of bull flag. limit order mkt, bull channel.
36 weak 2 bar reversal into bull trend line and EMA. probably buyers below (bears buying back scalpers profit after selling new high and bulls buying to initiate longs).
37 big outside bull bar test of EMA. possible mm target based on 27 small gap which is around high of bull channel. bears attempted to fill gap 3 times and failed.
39 another weak reversal setup, but at bull trend channel. bears see as wedge top (22,29,39), but more likely another bull flag. one more push up would make a spike and wedge pattern (22 spike).
40 high 1 / failed low 2 but into bull trend channel. probably better to wait, bulls are buying with limit orders below bars not on stops above (for past 8 bars or so).
41 stronger bear outside bar. but middle of bull channel, weak selling pressure, and no break of bull trend line yet.
42 bears exited with a scalp after selling above 40 high 1. 42 big outside bull bar, bull trend channel overshoot that reached mm target based on 27 gap. buy climax, probably end of bull trend soon.
43 bears failed to form buy climax setup. weak high 1 after buy climax, but need wide stop if selling above. better to wait for more information since bears could not form strong reversal. possible 42 creates another meauring gap which is around same mm tgt based on 21 spike.
44 second buy climax. parabolic and unsustainable buying, but mm targets just above will probably be reached.
45 reached highest mm target and highest bull close on 60 minute chart (0589). extreme buy climax.
46 bull leg since 42 has bull breakout, measuring and exhaustion gaps (45 suspected exhaustion). but no signs of bears yet, must be waiting for higher prices.
47 first sign of waning bull momentum but weak reversal setup.
50 bears appear to be starting to sell above bars / highs scaling in, but no strong rejection yet so still always in long. no successful bear scalps yet.
51 weak bear attempt for a reversal, bears have not made a limit order scalp yet, decreasing the % of a succesful stop entry. bulls are becoming less aggressive (large risk, 48 high 1 failed to reach scalpers profit), but bears are not yet selling aggressively.
53 strong shaved bear bar and bear entry bar for 52 ii short setup. two legs sideways to down likely after extreme buy climax, but may first retest high after 53 first break of steep micro bull trend line.
56 bulls bought 53 close for a scalp /test of high. probably will test 50 close to let btc bulls out breakeven.
57 strong 3 bar bull spike, potential expanding triangle top (47,48,51,54). best bears will get is probably a trading range since have been unable to create a strong reversal so far.
58 double top / 2 bar reversal. but middle of developing trading range so 50 % at best (prob closer to 40). selling above or waiting for second entry has higher %.
62 two bar reversal for a high 2 off EMA and near bottom of trading range. but stop entry is in middle of range, maybe slightly better than 50/50 for bulls since bull flag. ok swing buy but scalp is questionable.
63 bears attempt to make high 2 fail. more likely buyers below and bopbl.
65 setup for a wedge bull flag / failed failure (bears attempt to make high 2 fail failed).
67 weak low 2 in middle to bottom third of range and into EMA.


Today was very interesting and the strongest bull rally I can remember in quite a while (other than monday). Today could be classified as a spike and channel bull trend with a failed wedge top and mm up, or a spike and climax bull trend. After a failed wedge (common occurrence this week; one every day so far) prices rallied strongly to a mm up, where they entered a trading range.

Best trades

18 weak reversal (low 1) after a strong bull spike. also a bopbl to EMA and previous HOD.

26 high 2 / failed low 2, bopbl to EMA after a strong bull spike. if entered on a stop above 26 need to swing (bear bar for signal bar, buying into highs). but buying below 25 weak low 1/ low 2 was an acceptable scalp.

36 weak two bar reversal setup, weak low 1 / 2 at bottom of small bull flag and off bull trend line.

62 high 2 and 2 legs down from 51 nested wedge top. also first pullback to EMA since 42 strong bull spike. had to hold through pullback of ttr, has not reached profit target yet (as of 110pm) but working that way.

63 weak low 1 into EMA bottom of trading range and bottom of bull flag. bopbl from 62 high 2. had to hold through ttr pullback but stop was not hit and only 4 pips actual risk before reaching scalpers target.

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 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

1-6-17





After yesterdays extreme rally and retest of the bull channel high, prices pulled back to the EMA in a wedge bull flag on the 60 min chart. This could lead to a final flag reversal back down into the trading range. Yesterday was a strong follow through bar for a two bar major trend reversal on the daily chart, but is in an area where the bears may attempt to form a bear channel and trend line, and could become simply a buy exhaustion test of the trend line (trend channel fits well). Today is friday so weekly support and resistance is important. The bulls want the week to close as an outside bull bar (above 0652), or atleast above its open of 0515 for a bull signal bar. The bears want the week to close on its low but that is extreme and far away so unlikely.

15 weak low 2 into EMA and at bottom of yesterdays trading range (bull flag). probably buyers below for test back into middle of ttr (magnet). mm up based on 14 spike fills overnight bear gap.
19 big outside down bar, filled bear gap, tested above yesterdays high and found sellers. but could not close on its low, sign of weakness of bears unless strong follow through selling. closed just above mm down of yesterdays trading range, possibly expanding to form a larger range.
20 weak low 1 into bottom of developing trading range, probably buyers below for scalp up.
21 bull scalpers made profit buying below 20. bulls must have exited and did not continue to buy other wise 21 would not have closed with bear body. bears want a channel to follow 19 and test start of yesterdays bull channel.
23 reached mm down from 19 body. but still room to start of yesterdays bull channel. always in short, probably bear channel soon. bears want to test below yesterdays low and form a large buy climax on 60 min chart. 22 measuring gap leads to bottom of bull channel.
24 weak reversal signal, probably sellers above for scalp down but also a weak low 1.
25 outside bull bar, bulls made scalpers profit buying below 24. possibly bottom of bear trend channel.
27 outside bear bar. 23 stc bears appear to have scaled in and exited breakeven (below 26). suspected bear flag instead of reversal; may become 2 legged pullback to EMA / trend line.
29 tested 23 close. technically a low 2 in a bear trend but several sideways bars and into lows, ok swing short, but could reverse up if becomes small final flag (bulls buying below lows). if scalping probably better to sell above or wait for pullback to EMA /bear trend line.
31 bulls see as wedge bottom (19,25,31), bought below low again for scalp. stop entry forcing bulls to buy high in a bear flag with a large risk and limit order market. potential expanding triangle forming (23,25,27,31).
32 expanding triangle bear flag, 2 legs back to EMA, also a variant of a wedge bear flag (23,27,32), trapped bulls who bought above 31, breakout test of 22 gap. but doji signal bar. ok swing short but scalp is questionable.
33 high 1 into EMA and at top of bear flag. probably sellers above, but better to wait for signal bar instead of selling above with limit order since 31 could become credible bottom for 2 legs up.
36 variant of a low 2, but 3/4 bull bars after wedge bottom. better to wait, suspected bear trend line just above (copied from lows). bears probably waiting for test of trend line to sell, possibly buyers below for second leg up (50/50), but ok swing short.
37 setup for variant of high 2 (36 high 1), bulls defending 32 entry stop price. but bulls unable to close above EMA in past 3 bars. probably bull trap and bear channel to follow.
39 bulls made scalp buying above 38, reached mm based on 31. but closed at suspected bear trend line (copied from lows). next bar is important for bears.
40 low 2, 2 legs up since 31. better looking wedge bear flag (27,35,39), EMA gap bar, and off bear trend line.
43 double bottom bull flag with 37, closed just above bear trend line. another expanding triangle (34,37,39,42). bears took profit at scalp from 40 instead of swinging (not good for bear case). breakout mode, three pushes down (33,37,42), working on three pushes up (34,39,44). limit order market, bears selling above highs/ bull closes, bulls buying below lows / bear closes.
44 bears may give up on bear channel premise if next bar is bull bar. suspected middle of developing trading range (19,37,43 support for bottom of range). bull channel plausible but not yet confirmed.
45 setup for expanding triangle, double top bear flag with 39. but middle to lower third of days trading range. % might slightly favor bulls, but close to 50/50.
46 outside bull bar, trapped bears, bear flag premise weak at this point. potential to become measuring gap. prices appear to be in a bull channel working to the upper side of trading range.
50 high 2 in a bull channel, but limit order market, middle of range and channel and after 2 tests of trend channel line (47,49). better to buy below or off bull trend line.
52 two strong bear bar pullback to bull trend line. bulls will not want next bar to close as bear bar and should defend trend line.
53 bulls did not buy 52 close as expected. trend line may be broader.
54 outside bar off broader bull trend line copied from highs, but did not close as bull bar. but still a high 2 off bull trend line.
58 tight bear micro channel, bulls have so far given up on bull channel premise. 49 may have been a complex wedge bear flag lower high at a bear trend line, but unclear at this point.
60 first break of bear micro channel. bulls held (so far) above 43 higher low. but 59 was a weak setup, bulls probably unwilling to buy aggressively without a second entry from breakout of bear channel. may also be waiting to buy below 43.
64 bear breakout, bulls gave up. new LOD likely.


Today was a weak broad bear channel / trading range day. After filling the overnight gap and testing above yesterdays high, prices sold off to the bottom of yesterdays buy climax. The support of yesterdays channel and a wedge bottom led to two legs up to a wedge bear flag where a second leg down began. Most of the day was spent in about a 30 pip trading range.

Best Trades
16 weak low 2 into EMA after a 4 bar bull spike and at the bottom of yesterdays bull flag trading range. could have also bought above 48 but would have to be quick (news announcement, volatile).

40 low 2, second entry for expanding triangle bear flag, EMA gap bar and wedge bear flag.

51 larger bear flag, two legs up from 31 low, spike and micro wedge top (46,47,49). ok swing short but scalp is questionable.

61 low 1 at EMA and micro bear trend line, trapped bulls who bought 59 weak reversal, second leg down was likely after 51 wedge top.

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  #7 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

1-9-17




Last week ended with a wedge top / final flag reversal and failed break above the large trading range on the 60 minute chart. This should lead to two legs down (first may have already ended), and prices will likely test the start of the bull channel, which is around a mm down based on the first leg (0430 area). The bears are currently attempting to form a bear channel on the 60 minute chart, but prices opened with a limit order market on the 5 min.

19 strong bull breakout of bear micro channel. possible buy exhaustion to bear trend line not far above but not clear yet. bears want to test 1.0500 to fill bull breakout gap from last week. bulls want to test yesterdays 50-54 start of bear channel and fill bear breakout gaps.
20 bear attempt to make breakout fail, but weak signal bar compared to 2/3 strong bull trend bars. prob buyers below for second leg up.
21 signal for a failed high 1, but weak bear reversal setup. possible small 1-2 bar final flag, but prob buyers below for scalp up.
24 signal for a failed high 2 / low 2 off bear trend line from yesterday. but several sideways bars, 50/50.
26 two bar, final flag reversal. short entry in middle of small TR, still 50/50.
27 bulls forming small channel, bulls buying below bars / bear closes. bears selling above bars and highs scaling in. potential bear trend line just above from HTF charts.
29 first break of small bull channel. one more push up could lead to a spike and wedge top. prices reversed (28) off suspected bear trend line but not yet confirmed.
30 bulls failed to turn 30 into bull bar and cause failed bear breakout. they will not want next bar to close as bear bar.
31 weak low 1 into EMA, bottom of bull flag. weak stop entry during a limit order market. but building selling pressure, 28 btc bulls exited breakeven or small loss (31).
34 bopb high 2 to yesterdays ttr, previous HOD, and EMA. bears exited with scalpers profit (32) after selling above 19 and 26. but stop entry in limit order market, and not strong bull trend (so far). however bulls have kept 19 gap open.
35 bear breakout of bull flag, failed high 2. head and shoulders top. HTF bear trend line held. filled 19 bull gap.
36 bulls attempt to form broader bull channel, EMA gap bar, wedge bull flag. setup for a failed failure (failed high 2 failed). and failed breakout below small trading range (bull flag). ok swing buy but scalp is questionable (middle of days range), building selling pressure prob AIS soon, may retest high first.
38 three strong bull bars, second leg up since 17. suspected top of forming trading range.
39 loss of bull momentum (tails) at previous high. but weak bear reversal setup. 19 spike mm target still above. broader bull channel still a possibility (trend and trend channel fit well).
40 weak low 1, prob buyers below but buying high in channel and possible trading range. prob better to wait.
41 bulls / bears sold above 28 new high. sign of weakness of bulls / strength of bears. trading range likely forming.
44 buy climax to mm target, bull trend channel overshoot. possible wedge reversal (8,28,44) or (19,28,44).
45 swing short signal for 2 legs down
46 weak high 1 into bull trend channel line, mm target, and after a buy climax. also scale in bears who sold above 28 scaling in. ok to sell above for a scalp but stop entry below would need to be for a swing.
50 second buy climax, bull trend channel overshoot. but mm targets above based on 17 to 39-43 ttr small bull flag, and 44 negative gap.
52 high 1 after 2 successful high 1's (43,47), and 2 buy climaxes. unlikely to result in scalpers profit. but still in bull micro channel and bears have been unable to make a scalp since 29. so better to wait for more selling pressure before shorting.
55 filled yesterdays bear breakout gaps. reached mm target from 17 to ttr. spike and wedge (40 spike, 44,50,55). but still within bull micro channel, so low % shorts until after break. bears continue to get trapped out with 10 pip failures (53). first 10 pip failure for bulls who bought above 52 high 1.
57 reached bull scalpers target and mm based on 44 micro gap. potential mm still above based on 49 gap. building selling pressure (no consecutive bull bars since 54). but no bear scalps yet.
58 two bar reversal and better spike and wedge top, but still within bull micro channel so low % until break and retest of high.
62 first bear scalp in 2 hours. first break of bull micro channel and first pullback to EMA in 20 bars. building selling pressure but still AIL.
63 outside bull bar, variant of a high 2 (60). two legged pullback to EMA.
67 weak low 1 at bottom of bull flag and after first close below EMA.
70 wedge bull flag, 2 legged pullback to EMA. failed low 1 at bottom of bull flag. but several overlapping bars so better to swing stop entry.
71 weak low 2 below EMA at bottom of bull flag.

Today was a large trading range day that contained a spike and bull micro channel to a mm up based on the height of the opening range. After forming a bull wedge, prices sold off sideways to down and remained in a small range the rest of the day.

Best Trades

21 weak reversal attempt after a bull breakout and 2/3 strong bull bars. bopbl to previous HOD and EMA. best entry was below 21, but could have bought above 23 on a stop (high 2), but was a riskier entry.

36 wedge bull flag, failed failure, EMA gap bar, higher low retest of 17 low, and failed break below small bull flag. Also a setup for a failed head and shoulders top (most fail), which then becomes a head and shoulders bull flag. was best to swing this entry since middle of days range with no clear direction and a limit order market up until that point.

40 5 strong bull bar rally, weak low 1 reversal attempt (bull bar). acceptable scalp but also became low of bull channel and resulted in a swing profit. (could have easily led to final flag reversal at high of a trading range, so good idea to scalp most of position).

67 weak low 1 at bottom of bull flag and after a 2 legged pullback to EMA and first close below EMA in 20 bars.

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  #8 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

1-10-17




Yesterday tested the high of the bull channel on the 60 minute chart and again found resistance at the high of the trading range. There is also an expanding triangle that was triggered overnight and prices appear to be working to the target of a new low (below yesterdays low). Today opened at the high of yesterdays afternoon trading range and has since entered a tight bear micro channel, but has not yet broken below support of the range.

15 outside bull bar (bull attempt at a wedge bottom), but largely overlapping past 4-5 bars and in bear channel. bears want a test of yesterdays 41 (start of bull channel).
19 high 1 but top of bear flag and potential bear trend line (copied from lows). two small pushes up from 15 wedge (17,19).
20 variant of a low 2, bopb test of middle of yesterdays trading range. failed high 1 at top of bear flag. first scalp bulls have made since open (buying 13 low 1).
24 bull breakout, continuation of yesterdays trading range.
25 better looking low 2 and wedge bear flag. but middle of yesterdays range and weak signal bar, 50/50%.
27 two bar reversal, two legs up from wedge bottom, wedge bear flag. bears defended 6 entry price. ok swing short. scalp is questionable for a stop entry (middle of range).
29 failed low 2. bulls are buying below bars. bull channel. bears unable to make scalpers profit since 15.
31 bull breakout, new HOD. strongest bull bar in bull channel, buy climax, bull trend channel overshoot. more likely buy exhaustion to top of range than bull breakout.
32 bull follow through, 31 may become measuring gap.
36 two bar reversal signal for a buy climax, but 5 strong bull bars so probably better to wait for second entry.
41 high 2 breakout pullback long, but after a buy climax and weak high 1.
52 wedge retest of high, failed low 2 failed at top of trading range, and a lower high mtr.
54 bear breakout with follow through, AIS. probably heading to bottom of TR. prices appaer to be forming a bear channel.
55 weak reversal setup, probably sellers above for new low.

Today was a large trading range day. The bulls formed a wedge bottom and rallied to a mm up based on the opening range in a buy climax. After testing the high and forming the high of the days range, prices sold off to a new LOD in a tight bear micro channel. Since prices have gone sideways in a small trading range.

Best Trades

22 second entry for wedge bottom and high 2 off bottom of yesterdays trading range. doji bear signal bar, swing long.

28 failed low 2 at bottom of trading range, also a high 2 bopbl to EMA and previous lower high. acceptable scalp but turned into good swing trade.

38 weak high 1 after a buy climax. selling above was an acceptable scalp, but selling below 39 with a stop would be best to swing (second entry for buy climax and bear reversal).

52 wedge retest of high, double top bear flag with 39 and micro double top with 48. also a failed failure (failed low 2 failed), making it an acceptable scalp but turned into a good swing trade.


I encourage any questions or comments, as a learning experience for myself as well as you. This review is to help keep me objective and focused on only entering best setups, and help others learn price action. These trades are what beginners (or anyone) should focus on entering. So please feel free to ask about why certain setups are / are not marked, how I determined probability, trade management, or any other related questions.

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  #9 (permalink)
 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: ES, CL, GC, ZB, YM, NQ
 
Dabears2322's Avatar
 
Posts: 131 since Jan 2017
Thanks: 63 given, 125 received

Really digging the write ups. Appreciate you posting them. I consider myself a beginner as I am still in school, but I have been researching different strategies and following the markets on and off for the past 3 years. I also worked at a trading firm the past 2 summers and have learned a lot, but have had to teach myself how to read price action and feel like I have a pretty good grasp.

Sometimes when looking at a chart, I get a little overwhelmed and don't know where to start i.e look for a trend, candlestick patterns, etc... Do you look at multiple timeframes to try and determine the main trend before your trading day begins, or do you focus just on the intraday chart and go from there? Also, are you writing these journals in real time as they happen, or do you go back at the end of the day, review the chart and write them?

Appreciate the help!

-B

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 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014


Hey B - appreciate the positive feedback, I am glad to hear it is helping you and I hope others as well.

I am writing these real time as I observe and analyze the market while I am waiting / trading. As you can see, I am not always right and try to be quick to change my mind frame (objective as possible), as the price action unfolds.

Before I start trading I analyze the 60 min chart that includes the overnight price action, which is where my first paragraph / opening statement is generally from. On fridays and days that the month ends on I will also look at the weekly and monthly chart for obvious support / resistance targets. However I try not to focus on these too much since it can and will skew your opinion and you should focus on only one chart and one time frame.

I can understand what you mean about being overwhelmed, trading is very hard and it takes a long time to understand the markets and how to trade them (math behind trading). It is extremely important to focus on context and not just candlestick patterns. The context is what makes a setup, not just the pattern as many websites / trading gurus lead people to believe. Also, I think it may be pretty difficult to teach yourself price action as there are a lot of nuances / little things to learn that help with the big picture, and most importantly understanding the math behind trading. I'm not saying you cant do it on your own or trying to discourage you, but I think you would be better off to learn from someone like Al Brooks (where I learned). If you haven't already I would highly recommend reading his books, or taking his course.

I hope this clarifies some things, and please feel free to ask more questions.

Thanks, Josh

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