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EURUSD 5min daily analysis


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EURUSD 5min daily analysis

  #121 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

4-10-17




Open: yest ended with CC SCX, making 2 legs sideways to up likely today. failed break below yest low, bears failed at bear trend from open, bulls showing aggression but no clear bottom yet. poss early LOD.

19 high 2, BOPB to 7. DB with 7. suspect low of TR.
20 bulls made SP with stop above 19, filled bear 11 gap, close above EMA. all SOS. AIL. bears want DTBF with 10 and HOD, but unlikely.
21 bears attempt at lower high / gap and channel bear trend, sold 20 first close above EMA. inside bar, shorting in middle of opening range and stop in LOM. low %.
22 BOPB high 1 buy, 21 bears failed to trigger. but buying high in a TR, and not clearly a bull trend yet so BTW.
25 bull BO to new HOD. bull channel from 7-19-24. 25 poss MG.
26 doji bull FT, failed bear attempt at failed BO. first EMA gap bar. high in bull channel.
28 ii buy setup, but into bull TC. strong bulls waiting for PB. bear selling, scaling in for retest of 11/23.
29 25 BTC bulls have not yet reached SP (1 tick short of filling LO). prices contained by bull TC.
30 2BR / low 2 off bull TC for test of 11/23 highs. trapped BTC bulls, disappointed. better to sell above, or wait to buy. bulls creating gaps, only LO bears have made SP since 19.
31 some bears exiting BE after scaling in. bulls defending 25 BTC entry, trying again for SP.
33 bears gave up, reached 25 mm tgt. overshot bull TC. 33 MG or EG, mkt to decide.
34 MDT, weak bull FT. but no strong bear reversal. 33 prob EG, but prob lead to bull flag instead of reversal.
37 sec entry for bull TC overshoot and small second BCX (36). but strong buying. prob minor reversal.
39 micro wedge top (33,37,39), small final flag. bulls very strong, no sign of strong bears yet. 33 MG and no bear SP, SI bears trapped so far.
41 38 LO bears made SP. more likely pullback in bull trend than strong reversal (bull flag), but 2 small legs down from wedge top likely. bulls want to keep 33 gap open for MG.
43 outside bear bar, weak bear FT, weak bear close. small sec leg down from 39. buyers at EMA.
44 high 2 buy setup off EMA.
46 good bull FT. tighter bull channel from 26-34-45. bulls defended 33 gap. mm tgt is around yest 24-49 bottom of TR.
48 2BR off bull TC, bulls took profits at new high. but little selling pressure. bears see as CC BCX and failed BO yest 112 lower high. strong bull trend, bears likely need sec entry to reverse.
50 47 BTC bulls scaling in for test of close.
53 micro DT, bears attempt at failed high 2. 47 BTC bulls tried twice to reach original price, 1 tick short both times. but weak short setup, 4 bull bars, trending closes, little SP, first mm tgt just above HOD.
56 reached first mm tgt, found some PT (tail). 3 pushes up to new HOD (51,54,56) but no SP.
63 ttr, PT at new high and MM tgt. final flag. 3 pushes up after spike (39,48,63). poss 2 leg correction soon, but still within bull channel for now.
69 first close below bull TL. TTR, low 2. weak stop order in ttr and bottom of bull flag. LO bears above 62 have not reached SP (1 tick short).
75 DB 49. EMA gap bar. 2 legs down from 62. prob TR low.

Today was a spike and channel bull trend day. After a failed bear trend from the open, the bulls came in aggressively and rallied the market to yesterdays lower high, where prices entered a small trading range. There is a potential longer term bull trend line from the 7-19-25 lows (81 reversed off it later in the day).

The market became AIL 10, but it was clearly AIL on 25. The bears were never able to flip it to AIS, but 63 was likely to lead to a 2 legged correction.

Best Trades
25 failed low 2, second entry long, double bottom pullback, and higher low
28 weak bear reversal attempt after bull BO with FT and flip to AIL
31 failed second entry to reverse for failed bull BO. Also a failed wedge which led to a mm up based on the height of the wedge (33 MG).
46 high 2 off EMA, and 2 legs down after 38 wedge top.
52 weak low 2 reversal attempt
80 2EMA gap bar, second entry long off bottom of TR, failed bear BO below 50 and DBBF with 50

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  #122 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

Glad to see u posting your analysis after a break.

Since you trade scalping what percentage of days have
U been sucessful. I believe your sucessful most of the days
and if so how long do u thing it takes to be sucessful to trade profitably most of the days




Hello - thank you, glad to be back.

In life, nature, the market, and the universe there are cycles. This is also true for a trader with profits and losses. Therefore I think it is unfair to say I am profitable X amount of time, because it changes depending on the time period being analyzed. However I will say I make money most days (more than half the time).

How long does it take to become profitable? Well, everyone is different. I am on my third year of trading. I started learning Al's method two years ago, and have been applying it full time while developing myself as a trader for the past year and a half.

I think it takes a minimum of 2 years to do this. Atleast a year or so to learn price action concepts, and another year to develop the ability to apply this information, and become a patient and disciplined trader. I think if you are doing this part time, and have another job, then a minimum of 3-4 years. Beggining traders should think and plan in terms of years to becoming profitable, not months.

There is a Zen story from Way of the Warrior Trader I see applicable to this question and new traders (not directed at you).

A samurai who was seeking enlightenment asked the Zen Master "how long will it take for me to reach enlightenment?" The Zen master replied "It can be 10 minutes, or 10 years." The samuari said "that is too long, what if I study twice as hard and meditate twice as much as the other students?" The Zen master replied without hesitation; "in that case... 100 years!"

The point is to be paitent. Nothing worth doing is easy. It takes a long time to understand and do this. It is not going to happen overnight. It requires hard work, even harder work studying, and your complete commitment. You must work constantly to better yourself in every way (not just in trading).

I hope this is not discouraging, but this is reality. No one can do it for you. If you are not willing to commit yourself, well, I will use a quote from the move the Big Short to make my point;

"This is Wall Street. We will take your money if you are willing to give it to us."


Josh

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  #123 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014


4-11-17




Open: two legs up from SCX and wedge bear flag on 60 min. gap open above yest high but TTR open. Bulls will try for bull trend from the open, will likely need a double bottom first. But bad area for bull case on 60 and 240 min charts, stronger bear case. Bears will try for bear trend from the open after a failed BO above yest high. AIL, but LO bears have made SP. prob heavy 2 sided trading today and TR.

20 outside bear bar, failed high 2. bears need strong FT and BO below 8 for AIS.
22 DBBF 8. potential candidate for LOD but low %.
24 2BR, falied bear BO. prob bottom of TR. ET (1,3,8,14,24).
27 second outside bear bar, building SP. bulls unable to defend 25 EB stop. 23 STC bears scaling in for test.
30 bears trying for bear channel, but low 2 short into bottom of TR, so swing short. bulls want failed low 2 and strong rally.
31 good bear EB, but could not close below support, or get strong BO below 23. bulls losing strength, lacking CC bull bars, bears selling bull closes. next bar important for bears, need FT.
34 CC failures, 50/50%. both sides fighting for FT, 3 pushes up, 3 pushes down. converging triangle, BOM. bears have slight advantage (only LO bear SP). NA @ 10, prob catalyst.
38 29 BTC bulls made SP after scaling in. wedge bear flag test of 13-19 ttr.
39 DTBF 30, failed high 2. wedge bear flag.
41 bull BO, poss vacuum test of top of TR. bulls need strong BO above 14 with FT before bull trend. otherwise TR, and poss final bull flag.
43 strong bull BO, bears gave up. but climactic, reached mm based on opening range. bull channel from 24-33-41. 43 MG or EG.
44 bull FT bar but high 1 into bull TC.
46 43/44 BTC bulls scaling in for test, disappointed by 45/46. bears filled 43 gap.
47 BTC bulls exited in panic, tested below 43 gap, turned into EG. but closed with tail, sell vacuum test of bull TL.
48 sec BCX, bull TC overshoot. bulls want mm up from 43, just above.
49 sell setup for CC BCX and bull TC overshoot. 2 legs sideways to down / test of bull TL likely.
52 AIS.
54 weak high 1 reversal attempt after flip to AIS, prob SA.
57 MG, or mm based on 53. bears want test of open (middle of converging triangle).
58 closed right at bull TL, but bulls unlikely to reverse without more BP. more likely break of bull TL. 49 poss HOD.
59 bulls failed to hold TL, next level of support bottom of opening range. bears want bear reversal day and fill overnight gap. best the bulls will get at this point is a large TR.
60 tested near bear tgt (converging triangle). some bear PT at swing tgt from 49. bulls may get rally for test of high, but lower high more likely and reversal after BCX and strong selling. poss bear channel. 59 poss first of 2 larger legs down.
66 tight bear MC down from 49. bulls holding support at bottom of TR for now. bears have switched from swinging to scalping (64), bulls starting to buy lows (61,65) but have not yet made a SP.
67 bulls trying to form high 2 / small final bear flag off bottom of TR, failed on 66 and 67. still within bear MC.
68 first close outside bear MC, weak bull EB for high 2.
69 bulls defended EB stop, want test of bull high. will likely be limited in top of opening range (13-20) and bull TL area (58 close). bears want lower high and start of bear channel.
71 bulls tried twice to reach SP, failed. forced to exit or scale in lower.
74 bulls sec attempt to reverse from BO to new LOD. prices contained in small bear channel from 60-64-71
78 parabolic selling, bear TC overshoot, 3 pushes down since start of channel (65,72,77). MM tgt based on 59 not far below. FOMC announcement @ 145.
87 first close above EMA, first break of bear TL. DTBF with 81. bears likely to STC. bulls see 84 as wedge bottom and want a test of 71 start of bear channel.
88 bears sold 87 close, double top bear flag, variant of a low 2. if prices tick above then weak high 1 at top of bear flag.

Today was a bear reversal day, and a trading range day. After a spike and climax bull trend, prices sold off in a spike and channel bear trend, and closed on the low for a bear reversal bar on the daily chart.

The market opened with a gap up, making the market AIL. Prices pulled back into a trading range and remained AIL, but not clearly until the bull breakout at 43. Prices flipped to AIS on 51/52 and remained AIS for the rest of the day.

Best Trades

46 weak high 1 into bull TC and after a BCX.
54 weak high 1 reversal attempt after a reversal to AIS and CC BCX's. entering above 54 was the best entry, but selling below 56 on a stop was also acceptable (low 1)
63 weak bull reversal attempt (high 2), after a strong bear BO.
70 failed second entry long at bottom of TR, also first 2 leg correction.
75 failed second attempt to reverse new LOD, and BOPBS to bottom of TR. also off bear TL.

*Notice all entries today were shorts. There were a few good buys early on before the BCX's but they were best taken as swings since stop orders in LOM and TTR. 36 is arguably an acceptable scalp but at that point the bull trend line was not clear, and still a stop order in middle of TTR, so better taken as a swing.

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  #124 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

4-12-17




Open: today opened with a gap down, and filled yesterdays gap. The bears failed to breakout strongly below yesterdays low and instead the bulls formed support with a double bottom. However prices are still within yesterdays bear channel.

18 AIS. the bears want to fill the bull BO gap from monday. the bulls want an early LOD and to test yest 63 area start of bear channel and to fill yest bear BO gaps. but will need strong buying pressure first.
19 bulls 1 tick shy of SP buying lows (10), trying to form TR. but no strong break of bear channel yet and middle of channel.
21 bulls tried sec time to reach SP buying below 19 weak low 1, failed but will likely scale in. 4 overlapping bars, LOM. ET (1,2,10,15)
25 outside bull bar, bulls made SP. failed low 2, building BP. but lacked strong close and did not fill bear 16 gap. bulls need FT and strong break of bear TL.
26 trending bull closes but closed just below bear TL. no strong bull reversal, so prob bear flag. but bulls will prob get break of TL.
31 no bear SP in past 10 bars. AIL. bears waiting. strongest bull bar in bull rally, poss buy vacuum. prob TR around yest 88 lower high.
32 parabolic buying, climactic. closed at yest 88-97 TTR high. reached mm up based on 29 failed wedge.
33 failed bull BO. 32 BTC bulls disappointed. either high of bull channel, or TR. ET bear flag (2,10,15,18,33).
36 weak high 1 after BCX and into bull TC or high of TR. 32 BTC bulls prob exit BE.
38 sec entry short for BCX and top of TR.
40 bulls defending 31 gap and created gap between 40 low and 15 high. high 2 / failed low 2. still no bear SP. bears trapped out after selling 15 high and scaling in.
41 bull BO, bulls going for start of bear channel / yest 62 entry price which is also middle of yest opening range and therefore a magnet. 41 MG or EG.
44 2BR, weak. little SP. bears trapped out. tight bull channel from 18-40.
45 bull TC overshoot, strongest bull bar in rally, climactic. but 41 mm tgt not far above, other mm tgts same price level. no sign of strong bears yet.
46 sell setup for BCX and bull TC overshoot. ok swing short for 2 legs down but bulls are strong. BTW for AIS before shorting. bulls want to keep 41 gap open for MG.
48 CC BCX, sec bull TC overshoot, unsustainable buying. mm tgt just above. bears trying for very large bear channel from yest 49 to 48 close, fits well on TC but need strong reversal with FT.
49 2BR for large bear channel. missed mm tgt by few ticks. building selling pressure. 3 pushes up from 40 and CC BCX, increase % of 2 legs sideways to down.
51 sec entry for reversal off bear TL, and final flag reversal. bulls tried 3 times to reach mm tgt, formed micro DT and DT. bears defended stop above 49.
56 reached 41 mm tgt. starting to get 2 sided trading. bears starting to sell above highs.
58 first close below steep bull MC. 10 tick failure for 53 high 2 bulls. prob TR around 47 low/close. bears need strong BO below 45/47 with FT.
59 bears made SP selling above 51 high. 3 strong bear bars, first close below EMA. transition to TR. building selling pressure. poss AIS soon after retest of high for 2 legs down / reversal.
60 strong bear BO, AIS. large bear channel with yest high. poss leg 1 = leg 2 move. bulls disapointed by strong sell off, will look to exit, likely to form lower high.
61 STC bear trend, bulls exiting at mkt, any few tick pullback. bears creating gaps and strong trend bars.
67 weak 2 bar reversal attempt, first high 1 after flip to AIS, prob SA.
69 tight bear channel down from 61. filled bull gaps. mm tgts below based on 61 spike and 64 gap, around LOD.
70 bulls attempt at high 2, lots of overlap, right into bear TL. weak.
72 failed high 2, very similar PA to yest. bear channel from 61-71.
76 bulls buying lows, scaling in. bears scalping with LO above bars and bull closes. small bear channel. first mm tgt not far below.
80 bulls gave up, big bear BO. surpassed both MM tgts. 75 poss MG, not far below. SCX, bear TC overshoot (both larger and smaller).
83 back within bear channel, prob BB. first bull tgt is above 80.
85 sec entry for SCX and reversal.

Today was very similar to yesterday. After two legs up and consecutive buy climaxes, prices sold off strongly in a spike and bear channel. There was a strong reversal after the sell climax and bear trend channel overshoot.

The market opened with a gap down and consecutive bear bars, putting the market AIS. After a double bottom and failed bear BO below yest low, the bulls were able to flip the market to AIL 31. After a failed breakout of the longer term bear trend line and final flag reversal, the market became AIS on bar 60. It flipped back to AIL on the 86 bull follow through bar after the sell climax, bear trend channel overshoot and reversal.

Best Trades

24 failed low 2 near bottom of TR.
40 failed low 2, BOPBL and bears failed attempt to form TR with yest lower high. also a high 2 buy setup off the EMA.
60 bear BO with FT, STC bar.
67 weak bull reversal attempt (high 1) after a strong sell off and flip to AIS. Best entry was selling above 67 with a limit, but below 68 also was acceptable, but had to sit through several pullbacks.
71 failed high 2 / low 2 short.
85 second entry for SCX and reversal. buying below 84 weak low 1 after SCX was also reasonable. Both acceptable scalps.

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  #125 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

4-13-17




Open: strong rally late yest, gap down open today and strong bear bars. bears want bear trend from the open. prices now around a 50% pullback and yest lower high. bulls want bull channel and test of yest high at min.

20 AIS, bulls trying to form support for BOPB to yest lower high and 50% correction. two legs down (gap and 10). 2 outside bear bars this morning, few bull SP. so far bear trend from open.
21 bulls attempt at failed low 2, bought below low.
22 good bull entry bar, but bulls need FT. bears selling bull closes and above bull bars.
23 bull FT bar but tail. LO bulls reached SP. likely sellers at EMA.
25 outside bull bar, closed below EMA. bulls need strong BO and FT above 19. bears will likely STC to prevent, want DT bear flag.
26 DTBF and low 2 at EMA, 10 tick failure for stop order bulls. but doji signal bar.
28 bull BO above 19. trending bull closes. two closes above EMA. bad for bear case. no LO bear SP in 10 bars. tight bull MC. bulls want to fill 7 bear BO gap.
29 strong buying but EMA gap bar and first rally in bear trend. bulls want MM up from 29. bears want lower high and bear channel.
30 outside bear bar, bears forming channel from 5-30.
32 strong bear BO to new LOD. STC bear trend.
33 bears made SP selling low on stop = strong bear trend. but climactic selling. 10 spike mm tgt not far below. tail, so last STC bar.
38 reached 10 mm tgt, found PT and LO bulls below low, made SP. 2BR for SCX, but forcing bulls to buy high of small bear flag. bears defending 33 gap, want MG.
39 II buy setup. bears want to fill yest 99 bull BO gap which is near 33 MG tgt. bulls see as SCX and want MTR. both fighting for control.
41 bear attempt at ET (34,36,38,41) and failed bull reversal. EMA magnetic pull.
42 bear attempt failed. likely AIL soon for 2 legs up.
43 AIL. bears want BOPBS to 21 low, but prob give up soon. bull tgt is above 30.
45 43 MG, tgt is 30 BO gap. poss MM up from 45 spike, new HOD. sec leg up likely. bulls buying closes.
47 slight increase in buying, poss pullback soon. several other MG possibilities (44,45). tight bull MC from 38. first of two leg correction.
48 first pb to EMA, bulls likely BTC, scaling in for test of 47.
49 high 1 buy setup, BOPB to bottom of opening range. bears able to fill bull gaps.
53 bears attempting to defend 30 gap and form broad bear channel, 2EMA gap bar but weak. bulls want 50 MG and spike and bull channel.
54 stronger sell than 53, but still weak. prob start of bull channel from 49.
55 small 3 bar FF. bears selling above highs, bulls buying below bars / bear closes = bull channel.
57 micro ET (53,55,56,57). bull flag. bears still trying to form broad bear channel from 5-30-57. need strong BO below EMA with FT before premise valid. more likely bull channel.
59 bears reached SP selling above high. could not get close below EMA. bulls defending 50 for MG and bull TL for bull channel. next bar important.
60 ET bull flag. variant of high 2 off EMA and bull TL.
66 bulls gave up. will try to form DB around 48 close / 49 and TR. bears need BO below with FT for AIS. bear TL holding.
69 EMA gap bar, 2 legs down from 57 FF. DBBF with 48. bulls want bull flag TR and sec leg up.
72 bear BO, bulls gave up. AIS
81 volume dieing down. weak bull reversal attempt. bears want 74 MG, close on low of day which is mm tgt. poss STC bear trend into close.


Today was a gap and channel bear trend day. After two legs down and a SCX, prices rallied in two legs up. The bulls were unable to create a strong reversal or strong second leg up. There is a possibility today turns into a STC bear trend into the close.

The market opened with a gap down and sell off, making the market AIS. It remained AIS until the SCX and reversal at 40, and was clearly AIL on 43. When the bulls failed to form a higher low and bull flag TR, the market flipped back to AIS on 72.

Best Trades
21 falied low 2, failed bear BO
49 high 1 buy setup after strong rally SCX and reversal. also a BOPBL to EMA and previous LOD
65 failed high 2 / variant of a low 2 off large bear trend line.
71 BOPBS and failed double bottom. also a failed EMA gap bar and reversal third reversal off bear TL
74 low 1 breakout pullback short after flip to AIS.

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  #126 (permalink)
DjRonin
La Serena - Chile
 
Posts: 144 since Feb 2017
Thanks Given: 51
Thanks Received: 92

Hey mate it is always a pleasure to read your journal. I am finally starting to SEE THINGS clearly on my charts and trying hard to read the charts like you do. Keep the good work going man.

Alex

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  #127 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014


DjRonin View Post
Hey mate it is always a pleasure to read your journal. I am finally starting to SEE THINGS clearly on my charts and trying hard to read the charts like you do. Keep the good work going man.

Alex


Glad to hear it! Thanks for the positive encouragement. It helps to keep me happy and motivated to continue posting knowing it is helping others.

Feel free to ask any questions if something doesn't make sense

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  #128 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

4-17-17




Open: tight bull MC, bull trend from open. AIL

19 weak bear reversal attempt, prob BB. no bear SP, stop entry low % sell.
20 bulls buying aggressively, bought just above 19 low. bulls want 13 MG.
22 bears attempt at FF reversal, weak. right into bull TL. more likely BOPBL. LOM.
23 first break of bull MC. small ET (14,15,17,19,22). prob sell vacuum test of support (15/19 DBBF). bears need strong BO below 13 gap otherwise bull flag and MG.
24 bulls bought 23 close, failed bear BO. high 2 buy setup.
25 high 2 not triggered. nearing EMA, 20 EMA gap pullback likely buyers. bears need strong BO.
26 building selling pressure, LO bears made SP selling above 20, filled 13 gap. bulls want test of 21 close.
27 bulls bought below 25 weak low 1 / EMA. suspected bull channel from 12-27
28 bear attempt at failed high 2, shorting into bottom of small range / bull flag. more likely BB and BOPBL, bear trap.
30 low 2, stronger sell setup but still weak.
32 bears attempt at DTBF with 27. building selling pressure, bulls are unable to get CC bull bars.
33 bull BO to new high. but tail, limited by bull TC. bears likely to try to form FF reversal. bulls want 33 MG, but less likely. bull mm tgt not far above based on 13 negative MG.
34 biggest bull bar of bull trend, BCX. reached mm tgt based on 13. poss leg 1 = leg 2 move from 19-27, not far above. less likely but possible, 33 MG.
35 weak sell setup for BCX and reversal. bears likely need second entry before strong reversal.
36 ii sell setup, but no strong clear rejection of price. poss SA for weak high 1 after BCX, but prob BTW for more information.
37 second BCX, small 2 bar FF. reached mm tgts.
38 sell setup for CC BCX and 2 legs down. prob AIS soon.
39 high 1 buy setup but after CC BCX and 10 tick failure on last high 1.
41 bull PT, LO bears above 37 high. reached first high 1 bull PT.
42 strong bear EB, reversed prior 3 closes. LO bears made SP.
45 another bull BO, bears lacking FT. third push up since 35 spike. bulls forming channel from 37-43-45, but after CC BCX. mm tgt from 34 not far above. no strong sell setup, but parabolic test of EMA.
48 sec entry and larger low 2 for CC BCX and reversal. but strong bull trend, BTW for clearly AIS unless swinging.
49 outside bull bar, trapped bears. reached 34 mm tgt. strong buying but climactic and unsustainable. large tail on close, bulls likely taking profits.
50 bulls want to keep 45 gap open for MG, bears see as CC BCX and want reversal / test of 33 start of climax. sideways PA at new high, suspected PT and potential FF reversal.
51 prices within small bull channel, micro ET (46,47,49,51). close at / below EMA likely soon.
52 first two CC bear bars, closed right at bull TL. within MF of EMA. 50 nested wedge top (47,49,50) likely to lead to 2 small legs down / test of EMA before buyers return.
53 first break of bull TL. 3 bear bars, building SP. bulls defending 45 gap.
54 filled bull 45 gap. turned into BCX and EG. first close below EMA. bears made SP selling on stop below 50. prices likely to test below 45 bull trend bar, bulls will attempt to form DB and TR. bears need strong BO below for AIS or a reversal after test of high. 54 small sell vacuum.
55 bulls bought 54 close. weak low 1 into bottom of BF, likely BB.
56 stronger low 1 but into DB and micro DB. bears need to be strongest here otherwise still AIL and bull flag.
58 failed bear BO, more likely TR around 57 or 37 low. EMA gap bar.
60 first breakof bear MC, failed bear BO, failed low 1 (56). prob bottom of bull flag TR.
69 bulls and bears fighting for control. bulls want bull flag TR. bears want test of 33.
73 back to back failures. failed high 2, failed low 2. bulls trying to form low and TR, bears want bear channel. ttr for past 10 bars, and no SP for either side.
76 volume unusually low over past 5 bars or so. tight bear channel, LOM.
83 increase in volume. first close above EMA. bulls see 79 as wedge bottom (65,72,79), want test of 61/63 area for start of bear channel. bears want DTBF / failed breakout of ttr with 69.

Today was a bear reversal day, but could also be considered a large trading range day. The mkt opened with a bull trend from the open, which turned into a spike and climax bull trend before selling off for the remainder of the day.

Prices were clearly AIL on 10, and remained AIL until the 61 bear BO below the 45 higher low and 56 attempt at a double bottom bull flag. It remained AIS for the rest of the day and will likely into the close.

Best Trades

26 weak low 1 after first break of bull MC and into EMA.
29 best entry was buying below the 28 weak inside reversal attempt, but above on a stop was also acceptable (although better taken as a swing since into highs).
32 failed low 2 / BOPBL of bull blag. again buying below 31 was best (bull bar, weak short), but above was also ok since it was a failure with trapped bears.
46 high 2, DBBF, failed reversal attempt.
85/86 85 weak high 1 into top of bear flag and first close above EMA. 86 2BR and low 2 at EMA and bear TL. shorting below the 87 EMA gap bar was also ok. turned into great trades and STC bear trend.

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  #129 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

4-18-17




Open: gap up and bull micro trend. bull trend from the open, similar to yest. but top of large range on 60 min. bulls need strong BO above 7150 area, otherwise still within large TR.

16 AIL. bears were able to make SP selling above 11 high 1. poss transition to TR soon, but bears need selling pressure.
17 strong bull bar above new high, no sign of LO bears or PT. bulls want 16 MG, which is around same tgt as gap open to 6 MG. if bulls make SP with a stop above HOD, strong bull trend. NA close of next bar.
18 bulls made SP with stop, strong bull trend. strong bears waiting. tail, end of BTC bull trend.
20 bears made SP scaling in. 16 gap still open, likely MG. bulls want test of 18 close, will likely scale in. bulls want spike and channel bull trend day, bears want early HOD and strong reversal. as of now bull premise is stronger.
21 18 BTC bulls holding for orignal tgt.
22 failed bear attempt at low 2 / 2BR. failed break of bull TL.
23 bull BO, failed wedge bear flag. could lead to MM up based on failed wedge, but more likely 16 MG and 23 EG. reached 16 mm tgt and overshot bull TC. strongest bull bar of bull trend. likely EG. bulls likely to take profits, bears want HOD soon, both will STC.
24 bulls took profits, bears initiating shorts. but weak sell signal (tail), reasonable to wait for sec entry or strong bear BO. first bear tgt is below 23, next is mm down.
25 filled 23 gap, making it EG. strong bear EB, broke bull TL. 2 legs down likely, poss reversal and early HOD. AIS soon.
28 bulls trying to form bottom of TR / bull channel. defended 23, but unlikely to hold. bears starting to sell above bars but could not quite flip to AIS. bulls made SP buying 25 close.
30 high 2 buy setup, but after climax so risky. bulls trying hard to prevent AI flip but will likely exit around bull high. strong bears are in and will scale in higher.
31 high 2 could not trigger, instead bears sold close and formed low 2 lower high. bulls losing strength, but may get one more push up for wedge retest of high.
32 bulls failed to form DBBF with 26. likely give up soon.
33 reached first bear tgt (below 23), next tgt mm down. 20 EMA gap bar, but unlikely to rally strongly. strong bulls and bears will wait for 2 legs down before buying. bear BO with gaps, AIS.
34 bulls trying to defend 16 gap, technically 2 legs down from 24 and first close below EMA. bulls want to form bull channel. but now AIS and in bear channel from 24-31. micro double bottom and strong bull bar for 2BR
37 bulls trying to form bull channel from 13-34-37. so far holding. 2 micro double bottoms and bulls made SP buying 33 close.
38 bull BO, bears gave up. back to AIL, bull channel or TR. building SP, bears want FF reversal or lower high reversal. bear and bull channel possibilities. both sides fighting for control, so most likely TR.
39 bear attempt at DTBF with 31, but weak. poss SA for spike and bear channel (29-39). middle of range, 50/50.
40 no SA, invalidated bear spike and channel premise. bull channel or bull flag TR, if TR poss FF.
41 bears defending 25 EB stop. building SP, bulls lacking strong CC bull bars, but able to form gaps (38). bears have potential to form MTR soon (41 rally may turn out to be wedge retest of bull high).
43 bears sold 42 high 1, first break of tight bull MC up from 37. building SP, three pushes up. but no bear SP in past 5 or so bars.
45 bears came up 1 tick short of reaching SP. high 2 buy setup but high in TR. BTW and look to short soon. bears trying to form bear channel from 24-43.
46 several sideways bars, poss smaller final flag at end of larger ff (37 rally).
47 strongest bull bar in bull rally, tested 23 close. suspected buy vacuum test of TR. next bar important for bulls, will determine TR or channel. bulls want 47 MG, more likely EG.
48 bears filled gap, but no strong reversal bar. however bulls lacked strong FT buying so more likely TR.
49 failed BO to new high, but still no strong reversal or rejection of prices. and no bear SP.
50 high 1 into HOD, top of TR, low % buy. prob SA.
52 LO bears again 1 tick short of reaching SP. small spike and bull channel (40-47-52). 47 may still act as MG although filled (negative gap).
53 bull BO to new high, mm tgt and bull trend channel overshoot. also 3 pushes up in small bull channel and EG (53).
54 2BR for FF and failed BO to new HOD.
55 53 BTC bulls scaling in for retest. likely exit BE around 53 close.
56 bull BO, but limited by larger bull TC line. second smaller bull trend channel overshoot.
57 MDT, low 4 sell setup off bull TC and mm tgt. after second failed break of smaller bull TC.
58 good bear EB, prob AIS for atleast 2 legs down / test of bull TL soon.
59 strong bear FT, AIS.
70 64 EMA gap bar led to retest of high after break of smaller bull channel. did not quite reach larger bull TL.
73 bull BO to new HOD, third push up in bull channel (24,57,73). very little selling pressure in 73 rally to new high, but parabolic buying.
75 bulls took profits at new high, LO bears made SP selling.
81 huge bull BO, bull trend channel overshoot. BCX. but unlikely to get strong reversal today, prob trend into close and close around HOD

Today was a bull trend from the open and a spike and channel bull trend day. There was a smaller spike and bull channel within the broader channel. The bears gave up late in the afternoon and prices rallied strongly.

The market opened with a gap up and bull MC, and was clearly AIL at bar 6. It briefly flipped to AIS on bars 25 and 59, but the bears were unable to generate strong FT and the bulls flipped it back to AIL shortly after. In hindsight (always 20/20!), these were just pullbacks in an on going bull trend.

Because today was a strong trend day a scalper had to be patient since most entries were swings.

Best Trades

21 weak low 2 (or low 1) at bottom of BF and into bull TL. Best entry was buying below 21, but above 23 failed low 2 was also acceptable (although better taken as a swing since buying into highs on a stop).

26 weak high 1 after wedge reversal, bull TC overshoot, and BCX. Entering below the 31 low 2 is arguable but I see it as a swing short (lower high MTR). it was best to sell above 26 if scalping.

37 high 2 off bull TL and after 2 legs down from 24.

60 weak high 1 after flip to AIS, bull TC overshoot and reversal and wedge top. Very similar to 26 but 60 was a stronger sell since was above a bear bar (59).

67 very similar to 37. outside bull bar for high 2 and weak low 1 after EMA gap bar

71 weak reversal attempt for low 2 (little SP in 67 rally), new HOD was likely, BOPB to EMA.

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  #130 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014


4-19-17





Open: yest ended with a BCX, and the bears broke the steeper bull TL on the open today. The bears want a MTR and test of the start of the channel. The bulls want yest 81 to be a MG and form a broader bull channel (yest strong rally would be the spike). Prices are currently in a TR as both sides fight for control.

18 bears trying for bear trend from the open, not that strong of a case. bulls formed DBBF (11, yest 85), want DBPB. still AIL from yest unless bears can break below DB.
19 DBPB, sec entry buy setup. bulls defended 12 BE stop. but buying into EMA and small bear channel TL, ok swing but SSW.
20 first close above EMA, first break of small bear channel. good bull EB. bears see as 2 legs up in bear channel, prob STC. but AIL and near bottom of TR, prob BB.
24 bear BO test of low. bulls still defending 12 BE stop. bears need strong BO below, otherwise TR.
26 bears lacking strong FT, but bulls not yet buying aggressively. micro DB, poss buyers around 11 close.
27 strong bear bar but still no BO.
28 outside bull bar, DBBF. failed bear BO. 11 STC bears exited BE. but tail, weak close.
30 LO bulls made SP buying 27 low 1 without scaling in. most likely TR, but bad bull FT bar.
31 bear BO to new LOD, next bar important for bears, need FT. bear tgt is below yest 81.
32 bear FT, AIS. STC bar. poss MG.
33 weak low 1, but also weak bull reversal. bulls want SCX and see as 2 legs down from yest micro wedge top (106).
36 bull give up bar. reached first bear tgt. but also SCX. poss steep bear channel.
37 bull reversal for SCX and 2 legs up. 36 STC bears scaling in, want test of 36 close.
39 36 bears exited BE. bulls want test above 36.
41 ii buy setup, sec entry for SCX and 2 legs up. several sideways bars, NA close of bar.
42 bull EB, trending bull closes. but bulls lacking urgency. middle of bear channel.
43 good bull FT, likely AIL for 2 legs up.
44 reached first bull tgt, next is mm up which is above first SCX (30). 43,44 poss MG. first break of steep bear TL.
45 EMA gap bar, but strong rally. poss broader bear TL not far above. bulls want HL and sec leg up. bears want broader bear channel.
47 outside bear bar, broader bear TL holding.
49 high 2 buy setup for sec leg up. high in rally and in bear channel. prob bull trap.
51 50 failed high 2 sell setup failed to trigger. bulls able to test 45 close after scaling in. still within bear channel. more likely sellers above 47 high than buyers.
52 sell setup for failed high 2 and sec entry short off bear TL. also 2EMA gap bar.
54 bull attempt at HL MTR, trying to protect 40 EB stop. but middle of bear channel. unlikely.
56 bulls defended stop, want DB higher low. bears want 53 MG from 22 high = new LOD. bears have advantage.
57 reached mm tgt, parabolic selling and biggest bear bar in bear trend, SCX.
58 weak reversal bar, but bears likely to take profit, bulls start initiating longs, wont sell again for 2 legs up. poss mm lower from yest wedge top and 53 MG, but less likely.
63 strong bull rally, reached first bull tgt above 57. next is mm up.
64 bulls want to fill bear 45 and 52 gaps. prob heading to 45/52 highs and will form TR. bears want LH and trend continuation.
65 PT at swing tgt from 58 entry. bears sold above 64 weak high 1 and off bear TL. similar PA to 45 rally. but after CC SCX and wedge bottom, sec leg up likely and TR.
67 extremely similar to 45-47. this time will prob not play out the same and will trap bears instead of bulls.
71 sell setup for failed high 2, repeat to 52. but entering short where LO bears are taking profits. flat EMA. prob BTW.
76 flat EMA, converging triangle, TTR, middle of larger developing range, BOM. 50/50%. volume decreasing.

Today was essentially a large trading range day, but was also a bear trend from the open.

The market opened AIS until the DBBF at 12 which formed a bull flag TR. When the bulls failed to hold the TR low and the bears got FT on bar 32 the mkt once again became AIS. After CC SCX's the market flipped to AIL for 2 legs up on the 42/43 bull FT bars. However this was a pullback in a bear trend and it flipped back to AIS around 48 after 2 legs up (53 was clearly AIS). After another climax, the mkt became AIL on 61/62 for 2 legs up and start of a TR.

Best Trades

32 bear BO with FT, STC bar. selling above 33 or below 34 was also acceptable.

46 weak high 1 into bear TL after 2 legs up and high of bear flag.

52 failed high 2 and low 2 off bear TL.

56 failed bull reversal attempt (also a failed high 2 counting 51 as high 1) and BOPB to EMA and breakout of bear flag.

Today was another one of those days where a scalper has to be patient since most entries are swings. There were other trades that were acceptable such as buying below 18, below 27, below 37 (or 38), or below 82. However these should be reserved for more aggressive / seasoned traders.

*If anyone wants me to start marking good (50-60%) swing trades again, I will. Just let me know if it helps. I do not take swing trades and the best trades (marked) are my primary focus, so I do not currently talk about them. But it is helpful to beginners to understand what makes a good swing so I am open to discussing them if anyone wants me to.

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Last Updated on May 31, 2022


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