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After taking the month of March off from posting, I have decided to return and continue posting my analysis. This helps me stay focused on the price action, objective, and disciplined. I have not decided yet if I will post my trades or not, as I prefer questions to be related to price action and not my personal trading, but I may change my mind. I have also switched to the 6E futures market which mimics the EURUSD, but the price action is pretty close for those of you trading the spot.
*I will probably only mark scalps going forward since this is the focus of my trading. But I am also labeling when the market flips the Always in direction with the green and red arrows.
4-4-17
Open: failed bear BO of yest TR. bull trend from the open, bull channel. only 1 bear SP since open. AIL.
19 bull bo, but third push up in bull channel. failed bull tc overshoot.
20 sell signal for wedge, EMA gap bar. but little selling pressure in bull channel. low % sell.
21 buy setup for failed wedge, but high 1 into bull TC. prob first of 2 legs sideways to down to bull TL. bears want to fill 19 gap (poss MG).
23 building selling pressure, bears filled 19 gap. close to reaching SP. slight break of bull TL. bulls want higher low and second leg up. bears want HOD and BO with FT below yest low.
24 outside bull bar, bears exited with SP, bulls scaled in for test of 19 close. but tail, 19 bulls prob exiting BE on first entry.
25 bears attempted to form failed high 2, instead bull bar and weak low 1 into bottom of bull flag and bull TL. prob buyers below. ok swing buy above. high 2, double bottom bull flag. but buying into high and LOM so required swing.
26 bears trying to form top (failed high 2) and prevent wedge from failing, otherwise poss mm up based on wedge. middle of small ttr since 19 50/50% and stop entry in LOM. both sides fighting for FT. sideways bull flag.
27 first close below bull TL and EMA. poss sec leg down from 20 wedge (23 first). bears need strong BO below 24 with FT.
28 2 legs down from 20. small wedge bull flag (18,24,28). closed within small ttr. bears need strong FT, otherwise still AIL.
29 bulls bought 28 close, below 24. failed bear BO of bull flag TR. weak low 1 into bottom of TR, prob buyers below.
30 bull BO above wedge / ttr. strongest bull bar in bull channel and after break of bull TL. poss BCX and final flag reversal, or broader bull channel from 12-28.
31 swing short for failed bull BO and final flag reversal.
32 bear BO, AIS.
33 bear FT bar. poss MG.
34 bulls attempt at failed bear BO and ET bull flag (22,24,31,34). weak, prob SA for BOPBS.
35 bulls trying to form double bottom with 12 and broader bull channel from 1-35. poss higher low and second leg up soon. bears want second leg down and BO below yest low.
36 good bull EB. 34 STC bears scaling in, want out. likely to exit breakeven.
37 34 bears reached BE price, likely exited (tail). bulls holding bull TL.
38 second entry for ET and higher low. off bull TL.
41 bears attempt at failed high 2 / low 2 and start of bear channel. but higher low and bull channel. prob back to AIL soon.
42 bear EB, but reversed off bull TL and 39 bulls defended stop.
43 buy setup for failed low 2 in bull trend.
45 wedge retest of high. reached 30 close which found sellers (tail). ok swing short for lower high and second leg down, but SSW. poss top of TR.
46 ok bear EB, but tail. bulls buying bear closes / below bars. bears selling above bars / highs scaling in. both scalping. LOM. but AIL for now.
47 bulls bought 46 close for new high. prob TR with 31 but not yet clear.
48 bull BO. mm tgt from 45 failed wedge and leg 1 = leg 2 move just above (same price). bull TC overshoot. bulls want 48 MG and to fill gap open. bears see as two legs up in a bear trend / buy vacuum test of bull TL (60 min) and want failed bull BO and BCX to lead to reversal.
49 bulls / bears selling for parabolic BCX (48) and 2 legs down. ok swing short for test of bull TL at min.
50 reached mm tgt, found sellers above 49 but did not trigger 49 short.
52 bears defended 51 stop. 48 BTC bulls exited with small loss. prob AIS soon.
54 second BCX / bull TC overshoot. mm from 48 gap just above.
55 second entry for second BCX and TC overshoot.
57 weak high 1 into bull TC and after CC BCX.
59 second entry for CC BCX and bull TC overshoot. micro double top and double top with 55.
62 bears are lacking FT, but weak high 2 after BCX and prob AI flip. more likley SA.
63 bulls attempting to form smaller bull channel at EMA. unlikely to hold after BCX and bull TC overshoot. more likely bear BO soon and test of bull TL / start of BCX.
64 high 2 buy setup / failed reversal off EMA. low % buy, SSW. more likely to fail. 50% at most (middle of bull channel).
66 bulls are trying to reach 54 close after scaling in. tails on 65/66 suggest exiting around BE.
68 bears gave up, will wait for new high to sell again. mm based on 48 / gap open just above.
72 first EMA gap bar but weak. bears failed to breakout below small TR since 53
74 second entry for failed bear BO / 2EMA gap bar, off steeper bull TL. but still weak. SSW.
76 bear BO but first break of bull TL. bears want to test around 9/ 35 start of bull channel and bear reversal day. bulls want trend continuation and retest of high.
78 tight bear MC down from 69. 78 slightly overshot bear TC, poss small SCX / vacuum to start of bull channel / mm down from 76 gap. bulls will attempt to form large TR. bears want continued sell off and BO below LOD and bear trend into close.
79 end of STC bear trend. but weak reversal attempt. BTW.
Today was a bull trend from the open and a bull trend resumption day. After a test of the start of the bull channel, the bulls formed a double bottom and BTC bull trend into the close. Prices will likely close near the high for a bull reversal bar on the daily chart.
Best Trades
15 failed low 2 off bull trend line (also a failed low 4).
21 weak high 1 into bull TC after 3 pushes up and 19 BCX bar.
31 final flag reversal after break of bull TL and new high.
38 high 2 / double bottom bull flag and failed bear attempt to flip to AIS.
43 failed low 2 off bull trend line from 1-35
49 weak high 1 after BCX and into bull TC.
57 weak high 1 into bull TC after CC BCX and reversal (48,54).
72 weak reversal attempt after flipping to AIS, also BOPBS to small TR.
88 failed low 2 after strong bull rally from double bottom
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
@mastercraft29 , good to see your analysis again.
Now that you are trading 6E, how do you handle the tick increments -- which are really half ticks ?
Will you take a stop entry if a bar is exceeded by 1 tick, or wait for a "full" tick.
And the same if exiting on a loss ?
And I remember you often had 10t targets -- is that now 20t in 6E ?
Personally I have my chart set up it only shows increments of full ticks.
Thank you.
Hey Stillgreen - sorry i forgot to mention it yesterday but i am still using a 10 tick stop and 10 tick profit target. The institutions are clearly scalping for 10 ticks. It would also be reasonable to swing for 20 ticks with a 10 tick stop if you are a swing trader.
The half tick increments can be confusing at first, but this is because we are trying to compare it to the spot EURUSD. Which we cannot do. The 6E mimics the EURUSD and 1 pip in the spot is equal to 2 ticks in the 6E. But they are two seperate markets and the institutions are trading them differently. If you really wanted to, you could watch the EURUSD and wait for a 10 pip move setup, and then trade the 6E with a 20 tick stop and profit target. But I would advise against this and instead focus on trading the 6E 10 for 10, (if scalping), or do the same in the EURUSD (10 for 10).
There are no "half" or "full" ticks in the 6E like there is in the EURUSD. A tick is a tick. I too tried to set my charts as displaying full ticks when I was trading the spot, but this distorted the price action too much which annoyed me (along with dealing with the spread). Since switching to the 6E, I no longer have this issue and the price action is very clean since it is regulated.
Would I take a trade if the stop is larger than 10 ticks such as 11 or 12? Depending on context, yes. But I would also increase my profit target by the same amount. This rarely occurs, only during very volatile times. Most of the time I would wait for the mkt to return to normal before trading. However during these times it would be reasonable to use a 20 tick stop and tgt since the institutions begin scalping for a larger profit. This is the same as any other market such as a 4 point profit instead of 2 in the Emini when prices are volatile (or 20 pips in the spot).
Good questions! I hope this helps. If something doesnt make sense, let me know and I will try to explain it better.
*I forgot to mention this yesterday, but I am still scalping 10 ticks with a 10 tick stop. The institutions are clearly scalping for 10 ticks. It would also be reasonable to use a 10 tick stop and 20 tick profit if you are a swing trader in this market.
Open: very volatile, but still within several day TR. heavy two sided trading, today will likely remain some type of trading range day.
21 low 2 sell, bears want spike (16) and bear channel. but middle of TR, 50/50%. 17 relatively strong reversal and bulls kept yest 80 gap open.
22 bulls unable to close above EMA, want to fill 16 bear gap. weak high 1 top of bear flag
23 bulls again unable to close above EMA, micro double top with 21, bears sold 21 close. scaling in for test of 16 close.
24 bear BO bar, LOM. bears defended 16 BE stop. bulls want HL and second leg up. AIS for now, bears prob get sec leg down.
25 bulls attempt at high 2 / failed low 2. but weak. prob SA and BOPBS.
26 outside bar, failed high 2. but closed as doji. bulls trying to form bull channel.
27 bulls gave up, but weak bear close. did not reach bear stop SP. bulls want DBBF around 19 low.
30 1 tick shy of reaching 16 close for STC bears. bears want 24 or 27 MG and to fill yest 80 bull gap. tight bear MC down from 23, but three pushes down (24,27,30). bulls want HL / DB / TR low.
31 strong bull bar, 16 bears exited early. but first break of bear MC, may get one more push down. poss bull swing soon.
32 bears trying 1 more time for test of 16 close. will prob give up if not reached. too low in bear leg to short and stop order in LOM. BTW for poss buy setup.
33 29 STC bears scaled in above 31 for test of 29 and 16 close.
36 mass exodus of bears.
37 2BR for DTBF, shorting into support during LOM. more likely BOPBL soon.
38 bulls defended stop below 35. poss weak bear channel, but TR more likely.
40 poss leg 1 = leg 2 move from 16 to 36. mm tgt is yest low and low of longer term TR.
41 bulls making SP buying below lows without scaling in, so more likely TR than bear channel (or weak bear channel). NA close of next bar.
43 bulls gaining strength, starting to get closes above EMA. forming strong support around 16 close.
45 trending bull closes, first 2 legged correction, nearing suspected bear TL. 1 more push down would make 3 pushes down after bear spike (30,40).
47 outside bear bar, failed failure (46 failed low 2 failed). bears sold above 46 weak high 1, formed wedge bear flag. but not quite back to TL. and middle of channel so 50/50.
52 2 larger legs up, closed right at broader bear TL. EMA gap bar, but bull bar. middle of TR since 23. SSW.
58 SCX, third push down since bear spike (30,40,58). failed bear TC overshoot. after 52 EMA gap bar, prob final flag of bear trend. 2 leg MM is not far below but questionable if will be reached. came close to filling yest bull 80 gap but 2 ticks short.
60 bulls made a SP buying new low, bears took profits. poss reversal soon.
62 second attempt to reverse from new LOD. 61 failed low 1, BOPBL from break of bear MC from 53. reasonable swing buy.
63 did not trigger 62, decreases %. weaker buy setup. BTW.
64 BOPBS to bottom of range, low 2, failed bull reversal attempt. bears will prob try to fill yest bull gap again.
68 second leg down after break of bear TL and bear MC. second attempt to break below bear TC and fill bull gap (still 1 tick shy).
70 second SCX, parabolic. 69 filled bull gap, reached 2 leg mm tgt. bear TC overshoot. increased % of 2 legs sideways to up. bulls and bears will likely BTC.
71 reached mm based on 65 gap and opening range. turned into STC bear trend, no sign of bulls yet, but climactic selling and unsustainable.
73 some buying, but weak. prob bears taking profits instead of bulls buying. bears want BO below yest low for outside down bar on daily chart.
78 small ttr, bear channel down from 53-64. FOMC announcement @ 2. prob sideways until then.
87 failed BO below LOY. 3 pushes down (58,71,85). 71-84 small TR final flag. bulls want min of 2 legs up and test of 23 / 37 start of bear channel, but no strong reversal yet.
89 bull BO, AIL.
Today was a spike and bear channel trend day, but also acted as a trending trading range and bull reversal day.
Best trades
19 weak low 1 after failed bear BO and reasonable reversal.
23 weak high 1 at top off bear flag and into EMA
26 failed high 2 after bear spike and two legs up
43 weak low 1 at bottom of TR and after a failed BO below
46 weak high 1 after 2 leg correction to bear TL and at top of bear flag
64 failed high 2 / low 2 BOPBS to bottom of TR
@mastercraft29, thanks for your detailed reply.
The CME reduced the tick size of 6E ( and 6C) in Jan 2016. Prior to that the 6E tick size was $12.50.
The size of the contract did not change, simply the increment of movement, giving a tighter spread.
I still think of the current increments as half ticks,
( and the CME also referred to them as such -- Half-Tick )
because the cash value of the ticks is now half of what it was.
Presuming that prior to the change 10 ticks was a typical scalp, this was $125 per lot.
It does not make sense to me that a typical scalp would change overnight to $62.50, when the average cash value of a
day's range remained the same.
If previously a 10t scalp was , say, 10% of the ADR, then a 10t scalp is now only 5% of the ADR.
I can't see why the institutions would make that shift. A 20t scalp would be the equivalent.
Sometime last year Al Brooks said that the minimum scalp in 6E should still be 10 "full " ticks -- $125 per lot.
But I haven't been trading the 6E that much recently, so am very willing to believe you are right.
I would like to be able to scalp with a 10t stop, for a 1:1 R:R, if it is viable,
so I look forward to reading more of your analysis and results.
Yes, you are absolutely right. However the institutions are clearly scalping for 10 ticks in the 6E, not 20. A 20 tick move in the 6E is a swing profit. Just look at a chart and you will see for yourself. Therefore it is definitely possible to use a 10 tick stop and profit target. Al Brooks may have said that a 10 "full ticks" is the minimum scalp, which he says of the spot forex so he was probably comparing the two. (If you know where you heard this i would like to see it because I have never heard him say it, and I know other traders who have asked him).
But he does not trade the 6E. I do it every day. I believe he would agree with me after analyzing a 6E chart. It is very very clear this is what the institutions are doing if you just look at a chart.
Open: middle of week long TR. bulls failed to form FF reversal yesterday on 60 min. two sided trading, prob some type of TR day.
20 AIS, but middle of TR. 50/50. bears want to fill yest 57 bull BO gap and mm down from 11 spike. bulls want higher low and second leg up from yest bull rally.
21 poss bear channel from yest 109 - 11. prices have reversed off TC 1,12,19.
22 19 was reasonable STC, bears scaling in for retest. no strong reversal, more likely start of bear flag than HL and reversal.
23 outside bull bar but overlap with prior two bars. bears want spike (11) and bear channel. within MF of EMA. weak buy stop above, prob bull trap.
24 second entry for failed high 2, bulls should exit.
25 failed low 2, bad for bear case. bears will prob try again for wedge bear flag.
27 bears tried twice to reach 19 close, failed both times, formed higher lows. exiting early with small loss. small range, middle of suspected bear channel. prob heading higher to bear TL.
28 bulls gave up, bears likely to test 19 close, poss new LOD. poss smaller bear channel from 16-26. bears defended 16 BE stop.
29 2BR, micro DB. bears again failed to reach 19 close. but 29 closed within smaller bear TL. LOM, TTR, BTW for BO and clearity.
30 2 legs up, 2 legs down. converging triangle, BOM. ii buy setup but top of small range. no SP in past 5 bars or so, both sides trapped.
32 bear BO, reached 19 close. 21-32 ttr poss final flag.
33 high 2 buy setup for failed bear BO and final flag reversal. but stop entry in middle of LOM and into bear TL. bulls unable to close above EMA.
34 ii buy setup, increased % slightly. but still swing buy.
36 mm based on 11 spike, and 19 spike is same price level which is around start of yest bull rally. but 3 pushes down in second leg from 26. may lead to atleast small 2 legs up. bear TL is holding, but not reversing prices strongly.
38 bulls made SP buying middle of TTR, scaled in. first close above EMA, but prob get small second leg up after micro wedge bottom before bears return. broader bear trend channel still poss.
39 bears sold 38 close, prevented third bull bar. but small sec leg up still likely. back within TTR.
42 2 legs up to top of TTR and EMA gap bar, suspected broader bear TL just above. DTBF with 26. 10 tick failure for 39 LO bulls. bulls need strong BO above 16 before AIL.
44 outside bull bar, but overlaps prior bar. bulls becoming more aggressive, poss buy vacuum test of bear TL. bulls need to be strongest here, otherwise trapped.
45 failed bull BO, wedge bear flag. off bear TL. trapped bulls.
47 bull BO, but tail. not yet AIL.
48 bear BO, failed high 2 into bear TL.
53 second attempt to reverse from new LOD, but not quite to bear TC. bears almost filled yest 57 bull gap, still a tgt and mm below.
56 reached mm tgt, bear TC, filled yest bull gap. three pushes down from yest 109. poss wedge reversal and 2 legs up soon.
62 second entry for wedge bottom, micro DB with 60, failed low 1 / wedge reversal. poss flip to AIL soon
63 strong bull follow through. likely to test middle of TTR at min. prob get 2 legs up / test of 47 high.
64 bears sold close for low 2 / first strong close above EMA.
65 ii low 2 sell setup.
66 iii bear setup, increased probability. but not back to bear TL and no bear SP since 53 LO bears, so % still favors bulls slightly. bulls want to keep 62 gap open.
71 63 LO bears reached SP, filled bull 62 BO gap.
73 second entry, higher low for second leg up after wedge bottom. but tight bear MC down from 64.
74 outside bear bar, tested bear TL, 1 tick short of 10 tick scalp for 73 bulls.
77 SCX, failed bear TC overshoot, test of yest bull rally. reached leg 1 = leg 2 mm based on 56 and 64. but no sign of reversal yet.
80 poss 3 bar final flag., prob bb 79 for weak low 1 after SCX. but reasonable to wait for bull SB.
81 78 STC bears exited BE / 1 tick loss.
82 bulls and bears buying for 2 legs up after SCX. first bull tgt is above 76 start of SCX.
84 trending bull closes but no clear, strong reversal.
Today was a spike and bear trend day. It was also a trending trading range day with three small trading ranges. If you were not careful it was easy to get trapped into the wrong direction as there were quite a few false breakouts and a lot of choppy, two sided trading. The market never flipped to AIL, and closed around the low.
Best Trades
24 low 2 for failed high 2. had to endure many pullbacks but the tgt was eventually reached. selling below 24 or above 25 weak high 1 at top of bear flag were both acceptable scalps.
47 failed high 2 / failed breakout above TTR bear flag. selling above the 43 weak high 1 was also reasonable, and the stop was not hit. 45 was a reasonable short as well however the stop from selling below 45 was hit before prices reversed down.
51 failed reversal attempt / BOPBS to breakout of bear flag. BOPBS to bottom of TTR.
55 failed high 2 after new LOD. prices came up 1 tick shy of ticking through a SP but it was still a good trade and would have been wise to exit above 57 if profit taking limit order wasnt filled.
60 weak low 1 after reversal off bear TC and three pushes down (49,53,56). prices were likely to test the EMA and form 2 legs up after the wedge leg down.
There were some other trades that could have been taken today, but for discipline purposes it was best to just wait (for a scalper).
Weekly support and resistance: last week sell signal, bears want a bear follow through bar. bulls want a reversal bar. middle of several month TR. Bears want a close below open (7025), or near low. bulls want close near high (7175).
Open: small range below yest low. bears lacking urgency and bottom of large TR on 60 min, unlikely another bear trend day. bulls want test of start of yest bear channel (16/48).
19 big bull BO, test yet high / high of TR. bulls need strong FT for bull trend and final flag reversal. tail, closed below midpoint. prob willl remain in TR. first break of yest bear channel
20 2BR, second entry for ET (1,3,11,13,20). but AIL. bulls aggressive, want spike and channel.
21 ok bear entry bar, but not strong, tail, closed above EMA.
22 bear FT bar, tested 12 close found buyers. bulls defended 13 stop, closed in middle of opening range. but now AIS, new low likely for test of bear channel low. poss bull reversal soon but need signs of buying. 22 poss MG.
23 closed right at MM tgt. parabolic selling compared to 22 (tail on 22). but no signs of buying yet. large ET, tight bear mc down from 20.
24 bull reversal bar for SCX, and ET. but still no break of bear MC. BTW for second entry or clearly AIL before buying. 23 STC bears will likely scale in for retest, exit around 23 close.
25 23 STC bears exited BE. weak low 1 after SCX, prob BB but reasonable to wait for SB.
26 2 legs back after SCX (24,26) to 13 low. but prob not enough to satisfy bears after SCX. poss final flag and LOD for 2 legs up soon. broke bear MC.
27 variant of a low 2. but weak. bulls / bears buying around 23 close. 27 could not reach close, bears want out. bulls want LOD.
28 bears who have not exited are trapped. 2 micro DB's (26,28). but buying high in small TR on stop in LOM. BTW.
29 bears attempt at failed high 2. but last STC bears exited BE on entire position after scaling in above 28 (tail 29).
30 third attempt by bears to reach 23 close. instead forming higher lows. but no great opportunities to buy low in small TR.
32 bears are not giving up yet, want spike and bear channel. more likely final flag reversal. double top pullback sell setup / failed high 2. LOM. bulls buying lows of bars and scalping. both sides fighting for control. 3 pushes up, 3 pushes down = converging triangle, BOM.
33 prices contained in small bull channel. not clear, but prob AIL or AIL soon.
35 bull BO, bears gave up. AIL. but high in bull channel.
36 EMA gap bar, 35 BTC bulls disappointed by 36. large low 2. bears want second leg down. but now AIL, bulls filled 22 bear gap, prices in bull channel.
37 bear entry bar, but 10 tick failure for stop bears. bulls BTC to prevent AI flip.
38 bear FT bar but still within bull channel.
40 high 1 buy setup but high in bull channel. 39 poss MG
41 double top with 36 and micro double top. 35 BTC bulls exited BE after scaling in. bulls want to keep 39 gap open for MG.
43 bear BO, broke bull TL. bulls want higher low MTR, bears want channel down. test of middle of TR.
45 prob TR with 23 low, or broader bull channel. not clear yet.
48 TR, institutions BLSHS. bulls made SP buying below 44 low.
50 bears trying to form small bear channel from 44-49. bulls making SP buying below bars. 44-50 poss small final flag, most likely bottom of TR.
52 trending bull closes. building BP.
53 small ET (45,46,49,53).
66 bear BO to new LOD. small bear channel from 53-63. bears want mm down from TR / leg 1 = leg 2 move from 23 spike to 51 high. both around same price. bulls unlikely to get strong reversal today, prob close around LOD and low of week.
67 STC bear trend.
70 end of STC. first break of bear MC.
72 SCX to mm tgt. bear tc overshoot. bear PT (tail).
Today was another spike and channel bear trend day (very unusual to get 3 in a row). After an expanding triangle top and SCX prices rallied for two legs up (and around a 50% pullback). The bulls tried to form a trading range low but failed on the FOMC announcement which led to a STC bear trend and steep bear channel. Prices will most likely close at or near the low of the day and week, for a strong bear entry bar on the weekly chart.
Best trades
15 weak low 1 after flip to AIL and ET bottom (13).
41 double top bear flag and micro double top, failed high 1, 2EMA gap bar.
45 weak bull reversal attempt after flip to AIS. LO entry above the weak bull bar (stop entry below did not reach SP) I would avoid selling on a stop since it was lower %; shorting into low of what was at the time a TR, and stop entry in a LOM.
48 weak low 1 into bottom of TR
67 STC bar, FT bar for bear BO below TR, bulls gave up.
69 weak reversal attempt in STC bear trend. best entry was LO above 69 (bear bar), but a stop below the 70 failure was also acceptable.
