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hey - i think you are correct, the mkt became AIS on 13 or 14, either is reasonable. it also looks like you had your stop in the correct place for a STC trade (above 11) and held for a mm down, so nice trading! 12 was also a reasonable MG and prices stalled there during 17-21 (mm down from the open on my chart) but it turned out to be a BO gap. i think 32 became the important MG the computers used to take profits
the only comment i have is to be careful with BTC / STC trades. they often require a large risk (above or below the spike) and in general are best traded if you can scale in. although 13/14 confirmed AIS, there was still a possibility the mkt formed a TR at yest 47 or 90, which the bulls attempted to do during 17-21 but failed. the best BTC/ STC trades are when the mkt breaks strongly out of a TR (including from yest) and confirms the BO with a FT bar. or during a BTC / STC trend (todays 31-36 was arguably one, but was also a climax).
I personally do not take BTC/ STC trades, but i do pay a lot of attention to the highest or last BTC/STC entry as price generally comes back to test them for the scale in traders. watching for the last BTC STC entry also helps to anticipate a reversal. the last BTC bar is one with a tail on top, or a pause bar. for example when 36 formed today, it became the last STC bar (although a climax as well), making this the last bar a trader should sell for a scalp. as you can see prices reversed up exactly at that target on 43.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Overnight prices reversed down from a bear trend line on the 60 minute chart. However prices came up short of the bear TC line, the bulls were able to break a micro bear channel and form a minor trend reversal, and this was the third push down in the channel. All suggesting a correction of atleast two legs sideways to up. Also prices will likely test below last weeks low sometime this week to see if the bulls come in aggressively or the bears once again take control. Today opened near the high of yesterdays trading range and sold off to the bottom of the second leg up (start of bull channel) in a tight bear MC.
17 small SCX, test of yesterdays bull channel. bulls will likely try to form a double bottom / TR but no strong BP yet.
19 failed bull reversal, low 1 off bear TL. but into potential support, BTW. bears want to fill yest 31 bull BO gap.
20 bulls bought 19 low 1. first break of bear MC.
21 20 buy did not trigger, small ttr. poss final flag. 2 minor legs up from 17 SCX (bodies). low 2 reasonable swing short for test of yest low.
22 buy setup for failed low 2, reasonable swing. stop entry in middle of ttr, no LO bull scalps yet, relatively weak.
24 stronger buy signal for 22, but still little BP and stop entry in middle of ttr and LOM.
25 outside bear bar, bear BO but tail. prob heading to test yest low / bull bo gap.
27 bear BO with FT. filled bull gap. small spike (4) and bear channel (11 down). 25 poss MG.
28 bulls attempt to make bear BO fail, turn 17-24 into final flag. but weak BP, no LO bull scalps yet, still within bear channel. bulls need BO back into TR and to hold above support, otherwise BOPBS and still AIS / prob test yest low.
36 bear TC overshoot, parabolic SCX from 31. reached 25 mm tgt and test of yest low.
37 buy setup for SCX, failed bear TC overshoot and failed BO below yest low. if bought should hold for 2 legs up, potential test of 11 start of bear channel.
38 37 buy setup did not trigger, but weak low 1 after a SCX. prob BB.
44 second SCX, reached mm tgt based on 32. bopbl from 41 break of tight bear MC. bears losing momentum, tails developing below bars, less CC bear bars. 36-42 poss small final flag.
47 BBP, LO bulls made SP buying below 39 low. transition to TR likely soon, prob 2 legs up from CC SCX. poss mtr soon.
49 AIL, if not now soon. first bull tgt is above 31 start of SCX which is also mm up from 49.
52 bears want to keep prices below yest low and form broader bear channel. bulls want reversal and test of 11/17 start of bear channel.
55 bear retest of low rather weak, no cc bear bars, lots of overlap. but also no bull bars, so little BP.
60 outside bull bar for higher low MTR. but better to wait for BOPBL of tight bear MC / second entry.
66 ii bobl second entry buy setup, ok swing.
68 weak low 2 below flat EMA.
70 failed low 2, prob start of second leg up. second entry for 60 HLMTR.
71 sell setup for failed high 2 / double top bear flag with 61 and wedge bear flag. but stop entry in middle off TTR and LOM so swing only.
75 weak low 1 into bottom of TR. LOM, but bars are small. should consider waiting until tomorrow to continue trading.
Today was a very slow and rather boring day with only a few strong trades. It was a bear trend from the open which developed into a small pullback bear trend when the bulls failed to form a double bottom / TR with their channel from friday. after a parabolic SCX and bear TC overshoot, prices rallied to the EMA and remained sideways in a small trading range (Also a weak bear channel). There is a possibility prices resume this mornings sell off in a STC bear trend and make a second leg down for a bear trend resumption day.
Best Trades
21 low 2 / failed high 2 variant, two mico legs up after 17 SCX. this would need to be taken for a swing.
31 bopbs / failed high 2 off bear TL. acceptable scalp
44 second entry and second (smaller) SCX, and second attempt to reverse up from yesterdays low. the signal bar was weak but was acceptable for a swing. however prices failed to rally strongly so exiting below the 71 low 2 would be a good choice.
If you find my posts helpful, please provide "thanks" for journal challenge (link below, I am on first page)
Overnight there was a strong rally on the 60 min chart, breaking the bear trend line. Today opened with a big gap up to the start of yesterdays tight bear channel. The bulls lacked urgency and failed to begin a bull trend from the open. Instead the bears were able to sell the market off in a couple of legs and potentially start a bear trend from the open, but will likely need to form some sort of double top before a strong sell off begins. The bulls will have a chance to form a MTR on a test of yesterdays low (low of the bear channel) for atleast two legs up on the 60 min chart, and possibly a reversal into a bull trend.
19 AIS, tight bear channel, no bull SP yet so little BP. bears want to fill bull gap open. middle of yesterdays ttr close is a magnet.
20 bulls attempt at 2BR, wedge bottom (1,10,19) but weak.
21 sell setup for failed high 2 / bopbs. but low 1 into bear TC, and 16 low 2 did not reach SP.
23 bear PT below 19 low, bulls bought for scalp up will scale in lower. second attempt to break below bear TC (19 first), prob will head to test TL.
24 failed second entry, bulls will be forced out below or will have to scale in lower. variant of a low 2. 19 poss negative MG.
25 bulls defended stop, but were unable to rally.
26 bear TC overshoot, poss MG or EG to mm tgt. mkt will decide over next few bars.
27 buy setup for SCX and failed bear TC overshoot at mm tgt. turned 26 into EG. but better to wait for LO bulls to make SP or clearly AIL before buying.
28 another failed buy setup, but low 1 into bear TC and after small SCX, better to wait for atleast 2 small leg up unless swinging. poss first bull scalp below.
29 bulls bought 28 low 1, second entry for 27 SCX and reversal, MDB with 27. reasonable swing buy for 2 legs up, but SSW for BOPBL of bear MC or clearly AIL.
30 bulls likely trying to test 20 entry after scaling in. good bull entry bar but closed right at bear TL. bears wont want 3 cc bull bars, prob STC and scale in higher.
31 big outside bear bar, second SCX, bear TC overshoot. test of yesterdays TTR. less likely 31 becomes MG. bulls want to form higher low (above yest low) MTR.
32 big 2 bar reversal buy setup for SCX and 2 legs up. also small ET (27,28,29,31,32), and final flag reversal (27-30) but stop entry in middle of small range (bear flag), so swing only.
34 weak entry and FT bull bars for 32 entry. bulls may be cautious and wait for second entry / BOPBL after weak break of bear TL. NA 10 AM.
35 outside bull bar, first break of bear TL on strength. LO bulls made SP buying 31 close, but will likely hold for 2 legs up. TR or poss MTR soon.
37 big bear BO, test of yest low, second SCX (arguably third). almost reached mm down from 31.
38 last STC bar, reached 31 mm tgt. one slightly lower from 32 failed wedge. spike and climax bear trend. two legs up likely soon.
39 big bull bar, reversed past 2 bear closes. 38 STC bears prob scaling in for retest.
40 tested 38 STC price, appears bears are holding for SP (new low).
43 second big SCX, reached 37 mm tgt for failed wedge. high % (atleast 60%) of 2 legs sideways to up soon, poss test of 36 second leg down.
44 buy setup for CC SCX, also a weak low 1. prob BB and above.
47 2BR buy setup for CC SCX and failed low 1 after SCX. reasonable swing for 2 legs up.
49 second entry for 47, 46-49 final flag reversal.
50 good bull EB, within MF of EMA. prob AIL soon, bulls need 1 more bar.
51 weak FT bar, but also a weak low 1 after a strong reversal. also low 2 if counting 49 but 49 was decent reversal so better to think of as low 1. bulls likely to get alteast 1 more leg up from CC SCX, then bears may try for channel or TR.
52 bulls kept 50 gap open, SOS. mm up from 50 spike is LOY.
55 low 2 at first touch of EMA, also wedge bear flag (44,50,55) or (48,50,55). but 55 rally prob first of 2 legs up and short into tight bull MC up from 49, could become bear trap after CC SCX.
57 bull BO of failed low 2. poss small spike and wedge bear flag (50 spike, 54,57 two pushes up). bulls need BO above 57 and FT bar. 57 poss MG, mm tgt is above 40 second SCX.
58 strong 2BR for failed failure (failed low 2 failed), formed wedge bear flag, filled 57 gap. bulls still likely to get second leg up, but may retest lows first.
64 high 2 near bottom of developing TR but 3 strong bear bars, better to wait for second entry. best the bulls prob get today is a TR.
70 low 2 off EMA but middle of TR (50/50).
71 outside bull bar, failed low 2 but bulls need strong BO and FT.
72 failed failure (common over past few days). lower high, higher low. bears trying to form bear channel.
Today was a bear trend from the open, and a spike and climax bear trend. After the failed wedge and news announcement, prices sold off strongly in two sell legs and consecutive sell climaxes. The bulls were unable to create a strong reversal and instead prices entered a trading range (also a weak bear channel).
Best Trades
20 weak 2BR reversal attempt, bopbs to EMA and 18 low 2, and test of bear TL.
36 low 2, double top bear flag and first close above EMA and first break of bear TL. this entry was hard to get into due to the news announcement, but if able to enter turned into a great trade.
48 weak low 1 after CC SCX. in general these trades are best taken after the swing setup (so after 49). but buying below 48 and below 44 both resulted in SP and were acceptable.
49 second entry for CC SCX and failed low 1. swing buy, but should exit below 58 or 61 when reversal failed at EMA.
61 variant of a failed high 2, wedge bear flag, and BOPBS from 58 break of small bull channel (wedge top). entering below 58 or 61 was acceptable.
If you find my posts helpful, please provide "thanks" for journal challenge (link below, I am on first page)
There was another smaller sell climax overnight on the 60 minute chart after two small legs up, leading to a bear gap open today. It is unlikely today becomes another strong bear trend day, and instead will likely contain two sided trading (further evidence of this since todays open). Two legs sideways to up are also likely at some point today.
19 big bear BO bar, but strongest and largest bar since start of mondays sell off. more likely exhaustion and end of bear than BO and start of bear trend. 1-17 potential final flag.
20 buy setup for SCX, potential LOD, ok swing buy but slight tail on top SOW. reasonable to wait.
21 bulls bought below 20 weak low 1, dissapointed 19 STC bears exited BE.
22 strong bull EB, prob AIL soon bulls need FT bar. first bull tgt is above 19 and 18 gap. next tgt mm up which is gap open.
23 bull FT, AIL. prob BB if prices test below (weak low 1 after AI flip, climax and reversal).
24 small inside bar, prob BB for weak low 1 and BOPBL. also a high 1 BOPBL but better to buy below.
25 bulls bought above the low instead of below, SOS. aggressive bulls.
26 tail suggest some sellers at EMA, however tight bull MC, AIL and after SCX. bear flag at EMA unlikely. more likely 2 legs up, potential spike and channel bull trend.
28 first reversal attempt, last BTC bar. prob due to PT and not bears shorting. prob BB. strong bulls and bears waiting for atleast 2 legs up before selling again.
29 slightly reached first bull tgt (above 19). but gap will likely be filled.
32 filled NA gap. increased % of bull channel soon. next bull tgt is mm up from SCX (gap open) which is same price level as 32 MG.
33 bears attempting to turn 32 into BCX. but tight bull MC and strong rally. technically 2 legs up from SCX, but small and not enough bars to correct several day sell off. bull rally in MC so spike on HTF charts, more likely first of two larger legs up. turned into bull bar by close, if 33 gap stays open poss MG.
34 weak short setup, prob BB. but NA at 10AM and may lead to two legs back and start of bull channel so prob BTW unless willing to SI and using wide stop like below 31 or 21.
38 reached first mm tgt and filled gap, acted as if not there. likely to head higher to next MM tgt. but 38 somewhat climactic, may correct sideways to down for 2 legs before bull resumes so therefore reasonable place to take profits.
40 almost outside bull bar, will likely act as one. 38 BTC bulls unable to scale in (1 pip shy of limit orders), so far holding for SP.
41 38 BTC bulls prob exit below, wait for 2 legs down / test of EMA / start of bull channel. 37 small micro MG, mm tgt is just above yesterdays second SCX (40) which is also a bull tgt.
44 2 outside bear bars, bears see as wedge top (34,38,42). LO bears starting to short, will scale in higher. building SP, but unlikely to flip to AIS, more likely TR (bull flag) or bull channel. bulls want to keep 36/37 gap open for MG.
46 first bear SP since 32 bull BO. some buying at EMA (tail). high 2 buy setup but 44 outside bear bar likely restarted count, also bear signal bar and small bear MC. ok swing but SSW. strong bulls and bear likely waiting for 2 legs down and will try form bull channel. mm down from 46 for second leg down is previous HOD and 37 bull gap so likely to be tested.
47 stronger buy setup, but first break of bear MC. BTW for BOPBL / second entry.
48 outside bear bar, but bears need strong BO below 36 and FT, otherwise bear trap and still AIL. bulls bought below 47 for BOPBL (weak low 1 at bottom of BF). poss beginning of steep bull channel (36-46/48).
49 transitioning to LOM, two sided trading, bull channel. bears will prob start to sell above highs and scale in. bulls prob start scalping more and swing less, taking profits at new highs.
50 bears attempt at double top / lower high MTR. weak, prob BB and failed low 2.
51 strong bull BO, no sign of PT or LO bears, but closed at TC. 33 mm tgt just above, but 37 may become dominant MG that computers use to take profits.
52 2BR at new high, but little SP in 51 rally. reasonable to sell above for scalp down (weak high 1 into bull TC), but not below. btw and look for buy setups unless can flip mentallity back to long.
54 bulls made SP buying above high, SOS of bull trend. but also a trend channel overshoot and BCX. bull channel appears to be steeper. reached 33 mm tgt and again acted as if not there. 37 tgt not much higher, poss but less likely 48 or 51 become MG.
57 three pushes up since 47, TC overshoot, and parabolic BCX to 37 mm tgt. but again blew through tgt. 57 tight bull mc spike on HTF, prob form broader bull channel and channel on HTF charts. 48 or 51 might become dominant MG afterall. 51 is MG for failed wedge when prices broke above 42, so prob where prices are heading (tgt is also yesterdays high).
62 2BR, high 1 buy setup after first break (61) of steep bull trend line. but second leg down likely after 58 PBCX, and should atleast touch EMA (46/48 came within a pip or so, EMA sequence).
66 BSP, prob start of 2nd leg back to EMA. bulls made SP buying below 62 weak low 1 (or buying 57 close and scaling in). buyers likely to return at EMA, bears need strong BO below 63 and FT before AIS. but unliklely, best bears likely to get today is a TR.
68 first touch of EMA in over 20 bars. two legged pullback to EMA and large high 2, ok swing buy but bear SB so SSW. this is where bears need to be strongest (most recent swing low). prob bottom of forming TR (bull flag).
69 bear BO, but need FT. first close below EMA. bulls prob buy for scalp up.
70 doji bear FT bar, doji suggests some bulls bought 69 close but no strong buying yet and no break of bear MC down from 66. test of 54 bull gap.
71 filled 54 bull gap, first EMA gap bar, but weak SB. bulls want to keep 51 gap open for MG. mm down from small 69 micro MG is 51 gap.
73 first break of bear MC, building BP. 72 came close to reaching mm tgt. stronger EMA gap bar buy setup. SSW for second entry / BOPBL.
75 second bear attempt to fill 51 bull gap, found buyers on both (tails). suspected bottom of forming TR (flat EMA).
76 weak low 2 into bottom of TR and high 2 bopbl.
77 stronger signal bar for high 2 buy setup off bottom of TR (bull flag) and second EMA gap bar.
79 bears attempt at failed high 2 and low 2, but bottom of TR and flat EMA.
This week has been interesting to say the least. It is very unusual to get 3 strong trend days in a row. I can only wish everyday was this volatile in the EURUSD, but i know it is short lived and will soon return to small boring days. Today was a strong bull trend day and a bull reversal day. The micro channel on the 5 minute chart is a strong final flag reversal and spike on the 60 minute chart, and will likely lead to buying over the next few days and possibly a bull channel on the 60 minute chart. However prices are still within a tight bear micro channel on the daily chart so the rally may be limited.
Best Trades
21 swing buy for SCX and 2 legs up. entering above 20 was reasonable but above 21 was better since the low 1 below 20 failed. turned into the LOD and great swing potential.
29/31 weak reversal attempt after a SCX and strong rally. buying below 29 was the better choice for a scalper, but buying above the 31 high 1 was also reasonable.
36 failed reversal attempt (bears failed to create TR and low 2 short), and BOPBL to previous HOD. best entry was below 34 but buying above the 36 failed reversal and high 1 was also acceptable.
47 high 2 buy setup off bull trend line, buying above 47 would need to be for a swing since prices had not yet broken the bear MC. however buying below the 47 weak low 1 into bottom of bull flag and BOPBL from bear MC was an acceptable scalp.
If you find my posts helpful, please provide "thanks" for journal challenge (link below, I am on first page)
Re: 2-13 Bar 21 and 31 setups both look similar. You call for a swing on 21 and scalp on 31. I think 31 looks weaker than 21. Why would you not call for a swing on it? Too close to prior day close?
Re: 2-14 Great forethought on the need of some sort of DT to kick off the bear trend.
In general, do you enter more on limits or stops?
good question as these two setups are similar. however there are some subtle but important differences that change the probability of each setup.
bar 21 was a low 2 short into the low of the day, and into the lows of a potential trading range from the prior day (bottom of bull channel) which is an area where bulls may return and form a trading range, and also in the middle of the prior days range so 50/50%. It was also after the 17 small SCX which was also a bear TC overshoot and prices did not penetrate the bear TL after the overshoot.
however bar 31 occurred after the bear BO of the TR (bulls failed to form support of TR). It was the second failed reversal back above this support (24 was the first), making it a failed high 2, BOPBS, and off the bear trend line (31 tried to break above and failed), all strengthening the probability of a scalp.
In general, anytime you are shorting into support of a TR you need to take it for a swing trade for a mm down based on the height of the range. BOPB's have a higher % and can be acceptable scalps depending on context, but most are acceptable. Also any time one side is trapped like a failed second entry, the % is often 60% and therefore high enough for a scalp. (again depending on context, if it is at the end of a flag and therefore more likely to become a wedge then this the % is only 40% and the % instead favors a breakout of the flag with trend).
As for the double top, most bear trends from the open (or bull trends) form from a double top / double bottom which are two failed attempts so the market tests in the opposite direction for a minimum of two legs. I actually expected the double top to form around 5 or maybe 16, but 36 became the double top with 31 (probably due to whatever news announcement).
Personally I enter mostly with limit orders since forex markets are limit order markets. however i should enter more on stops than i do, and there are plenty of stop entries every day. In general i look for weak stop entries and like to enter there with limit orders (i talked about this in another post a week or so ago if you want more info). The problem with entering with limit orders is determining the %. However once you understand 60% limit order entries and focus on only entering them instead of just randomly above and below bars, the traders equation becomes more favorable and you can often enter at the precise time and occur little to no actual risk.
Hope this helps! Again good question, and i like questions like these so feel free to ask more. If something i said doesnt make sense just ask and i will explain in more detail
Hey DJRonin - thanks for the positive feedback! here is a list of my abbreviations, if there is one not on here let me know and i will clearify
BOM breakout mode
BTW better to wait
SSW scalpers should wait for higher %
AS aggressive bears
AB aggressive bulls
MDB micro double bottom
MDT micro double top
H2 high 2 (1,2,3)
L2 low 2 (1,2,3)
ET expanding triangle
EGB EMA gap bar
FT follow through
NA news annoucement
OOD open of day
COY close of yesterday
LOY low of yesterday
HOY high of yesterday
MM measured move
AIL always in long
AIS always in short
LOM limit order market
HLMTR higher low major trend reversal (LL lower low, LH lower high, HH higher high)
BOPB breakout pullback (BOPBL long, BOPBS short)
FF final flag HTF higher time frame
LTF lower time frame
TR trading range
TL trend line
TC trend channel
BCX buy climax
SCX sell climax
BO breakout
FBO failed breakout
MG measuring gap
BG breakout gap
EG exhaustion gap LOD / HOD low of day, high of day
MC micro channel
STC / BTC sell the close, buy the close
CC consecutive
IR initial risk
AR actual risk
Prob buyers below = 60% probability, acceptable scalp (1 X IR)
swing trade (40-50%)= reward has to be 2x IR
As for high 1's it is an attempt by the market to reverse and continue into the original trend direction. todays 31 and 36 are examples of high 1's. 47 is a high 2 (43 was high 1). some are clearer than others. 73 was also a large high 2 (65 rally high 1) and 77 was a high 2 down from the 65 high (73 was first). if this is not making sense let me know and perhaps i will create a post in a week or so explaining better
Overnight a small bull channel developed on the 60 min chart. There has already been two pushes, and prices are near the mm tgt based on the three bar bull spike. Prices are currently finding resistance at the trend channel line. After a third push up, prices may correct down for two legs (spike and wedge top) and test back near the start of the bull channel. However there are bull targets above that include open bear gaps, the open gap around 0720, and the start of the bear channel. But since the daily chart is in a tight bear channel and this is the first breakout, prices will probably need to test lower before continuing higher.
18 15 spike potential BCX, 16 came close to reaching mm tgt and was a failed bull TC overshoot . but still AIL, poss tight bull channel copied from 6-16. so far bull trend from the open.
19 found buyers at EMA and reversed off bull TL. prob get atleast small second leg down from 16 BCX. 19 tail could be leg up and end of first leg down. bulls came up 1 pip short of reaching SP buying above 8 high, still SOS.
20 bear bar closing at bull TL, weak low 1 into EMA and bull TL. prob BB / bulls BTC, but better to wait for confirmation of bull channel. 15 was reasonable BTC, so bulls likely to scale in for test of close.
21 bulls bought 20 close, weaker low 1 into bottom of BF, EMA and bull TL, prob bb for scalp up.
22 ii buy setup off bull TL, ok swing but scalpers should look to buy below / second entry. bulls buying bear closes / below bars, bears selling above highs, scaling in higher and making SP. prices in bull channel but relatively weak, bulls could be stronger.
24 bear BO, but weak (tail), first close below EMA since open. poss broader bull channel or TR with 1-10 lows. bears need strong BO below 10 with FT. larger bull channel trend line from yest 93-119 below.
25 high 2 buy setup, 2 legs down from 16, DBBF with 10, BOPBL from BO of bear MC. ok buy, but relatively weak. buidling SP.
26 poor bull EB, bears attempt to make high 2 fail, but not that strong and short into support.
27 wedge bull flag, higher % than 25, but still not that strong. prob TR forming. 25-27 poss small final bear flag at bottom of TR.
29 2BR for final flag, failed low 1 at bottom of TR. still AIL. bulls want to test 15 close.
30 reached 15 close for BTC bulls, may develop into top of TR if they exit BE on 15 entry. but bull mm tgt just above HOD and is a magnet.
31 2BR for double top, most bulls exited BE. technically a low 2 at top of TR (28 low 1), but 29 strong BO and will prob make atleast 1 more attempt up to a new HOD. could also still be weak bull channel (10-29 lows).
32 bear entry did not trigger, SOW of bears, strength of bulls. but weak high 1 into top of TR or bull channel so low % buying up here.
33 bulls have switched to scalping, institutions BLSHS, therefore TR (bull flag) / weak bull channel. breakout to new high will prob result in bull PT and LO bears selling.
34 bull BO to new HOD, second leg up from 29. 31-33 poss final flag and 34 small BCX to bull mm tgt and bull TC. prices in both a weak bull channel and TR. less likely 34 becomes MG.
35 bull FT bar, but bull TC overshoot. bears need to fill 34 gap and turn into EG, otherwise MG.
36 bears failed attempt at 2BR and final flag reversal / failed BO to new HOD. strengthens bull case for 34 MG.
37 reached 30 mm tgt, close to 34 mm tgt. 37 rally could be viewed as wedge retest of high (31,35,37) after 28 break of steeper bull trend line which may lead to two legs down. some SP within rally, but no strong bears. however rally is parabolic and therefore potential second BCX, and a second failed bull TC overshoot (HTF bull TC).
38 2BR for wedge top, failed BO of bull TC. turned 37 into EG, 34 MG. ok swing short, but higher % to wait for second entry. first bear tgt is test of bull TL (HTF charts).
39 bear setup did not trigger, 39 is a high 1 after a succesful high 1 and into bull TC. ok to sell above if scaling in, but would be stronger if 38 triggered, so BTW. some building SP, bulls no longer getting CC bull bars (36,39). poss AIS soon if bears get strong reversal with FT.
40 several sideways bars, potential final flag reversal setup. converging triangle (bodies), BOM.
41 final flag reversal after a PBCX and at bull TC. reasonable swing.
42 poor bear EB, bulls attempt at high 2 and failed reversal. but buying into TC and out of small flag so low % swing buy. more likely to fail. but wise to wait on failure / second entry short instead of selling above. may get one more small push up for nested wedge top (41,43).
43 outside bear bar for failed high 2 and second entry for 41.
44 good bear EB, 1 more bear bar for AIS and 2 legs down.
45 bad bear FT, bulls trying to form channel from 33-45.
46 let 37 BTC out BE, small ET (39,41,43,45). 41 and 43 LO bears trapped out (10 pip failure), forced to exit or scale in higher.
47 second BCX, bull TC overshoot (both HTF and channel up from 33-45).
48 sell setup for second BCX, ET, and 38-45 final flag reversal.
50 46 poss MG. bull channel from 33-45.
53 some building selling pressure in bull channel. but no break of TL yet and likely to get 1 more push up for spike and channel bull trend 30 spike 37,50 first two pushes up.
56 first break of bull TL. first close at EMA. bulls want to keep 46 gap open for MG. one more push up (retest of high) could form wedge reversal. but still AIL.
57 first close below EMA, tight bear MC down from 53. LO bears starting to make SP, transition to TR soon or poss reversal and trending trading range day.
62 first break of micro bear channel, 61 first EMA gap bar. bears filled bull 46 gap but need strong BO and FT below 45 before AIS. prob TR with 45 low.
63 low 1 short, but into support and potential TR bottom. bears want to test 33 start of bull channel / fill 33 or 29 gap. trump speaks at 1230, prices may drift sideways until then.
64 bear BO, but need FT. area where bears need to be strongest, (most recent swing low). bulls likely to return and form TR.
65 failed bear BO, strong SB for high 2 and second EMA gap bar. also a BOPBL from 62 break of bear MC. NA close of bar.
66 sell setup for failed high 2 but also a low 1 after a low 1 that did not result in SP. HTF bull trend line not far below, bulls may be waiting for test before returning.
67 failed failure for wedge bull flag and second attempt to reverse after breaking below 45 swing low. also a test of the resistance of the opening range. but bull TL is a magnet.
69 micro wedge (65,67,69). buy setup for failed low 2. but bull TL not far below.
72 final flag reversal off bull TL, likely to test 62 start of small bear channel. ok swing but SSW.
75 2BR for second entry off bull TL and 74 failed low 1.
Today was a trading range day, with a spike and bull channel that reached a mm up in CC buy climaxes, based on the opening range before reversing down and testing the top of the lower range (and a HTF bull trend line). It could also be considered a trending trading range variant (as it acted like one), and a bull trend resumption day (if prices continue higher and close near the high).
Best Trades
27 weak low 1 at bottom of TR and bull flag. first close below EMA and 2 legs down from the 16 BCX. a scalper should enter below the 27 weak low 1, but entering above 28 as the low 1 failed was also reasonable, although better taken as a swing.
48 weak high 1 after a CC BCX's and into the bull TC and HTF bull TC lines. also at a mm up based on the opening range and 34 MG.
53 final flag reversal for the CC BCX's and two failed bull TC overshoots (49 and 54 both attempted to break above and failed). entering below 53 would be a swing for two legs down / test of 33 start of bull channel or the HTF bull trend line.
72 micro wedge bottom from 60 spike (65,67,72), test of the opening range, and HTF bull trend line. it was also the third EMA gap bar (which is rare, usually either the first or second is successful), however the bull trend line was a magnet.
73 weak low 1 after a reversal and failed bear attempt to flip market to AIS. buying below 73 or 74 were the best entries, but above the 75 second entry was also acceptable.
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I agree with this trade and watched it play out in front of me, knowing it "should" reverse, but could not figure out where the appropriate entry should be so I passed. I'm much better with trend.
Would you have had a preference on this one for entry?
I only managed one live trade, long on the close of bar 9. I had the benefit of overnight data. Bar 9 was simply a big bear bar in an obvious breakout and trend move (shake out). It could have been considered a breakout pullback. Those big bear bars in a strong trend are great opportunities. I recall Al saying he'll just buy those. Obviously context has to be right. It was probably all of the Bob Volman experience I have combined with Brooks that got me into this one.
