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There was a brief second leg up overnight on the 60 min chart, but stalled around yesterdays high and the previous lower high of the sell off, forming a trading range and failed to fill the open gap. While it is still possible a bull channel begins on the 60 min chart, it is looking less likely. Although yesterday is a buy setup on the daily chart (first close below EMA, variant of a high 2), a second leg down is likely after the break of the tight micro channel and buy climax to a new high. The bears want to fill yesterdays bull gaps. Prices opened today at the bottom of yesterdays trading range (bull flag), and formed a weak double bottom bull flag and expanding triangle (1,3,7,15,19). Today will likely contain a lot of two sided trading (both sides have been able to make money this morning).
19 bulls bought below 7/13 lows, bears are lacking strong follow through selling and need a BO below 7 with FT, other wise TR.
20 weak low 1 into bottom of developing TR, but bear MC down to 19, better to wait for BP / BOPB.
21 slight break of bear MC, but not on strength (doji), lack of strong buying. flat EMA, and weak low 1. but prob BTW for confirmation of TR.
22 outside bull bar, but overlaps several previous bars so weak without FT. bulls want to fill 17 bear gap which is 13 LO bulls scalpers PT.
23 bears attempting to form head and shoulders top, want spike and bear channel. but weak, into bottom of TR. ok swing short, but better to wait for FT or failure (prob will become H&S bull flag, continuation pattern).
24 buy setup for failed low 2 / high 2 BOPBL off bottom of TR, also second entry for 19 ET.
25 let 23 STC bears out close to BE. bears attemped failed high 2 sell setup. not strong bull entry bar (doji) but weak short. next bar is important, bulls need FT.
26 bulls struggling to get close above EMA 7 LO bulls still havent reached SP. weak short setup, more likely BB for BOPBL. but bulls might give up.
27 LOM, both sides trapped. next move likely to go far.
28 bull BO, bears gave up. AIL. prob heading to test HOY (top of TR). mm up from 28 is new HOD.
29 weak bull FT LO bulls reached SP but not stop bulls. bears attempt at wedge bear flag / failed failure. but weak low 1 after flip to AIL, prob BB.
31 outside bear bar, bears sold above 30 high 1, LO bulls made SP. LOM, small bull channel.
32 BOPB high 2 buy setup, but high in bull channel. bears trying to form bear channel from 16. 24 and 27 reversed up from bull TL drawn from yesterdays 1,5,11 poss broad bull channel and second leg up.
34 strong bull FT but overshoot of small bull channel. 34 potential MG.
35 strong 2BR for bull TC overshoot. doube top with 16.
36 big bear BO, failed high 2. 21 -34 bulls trapped, forced out. filled yest 25 bull gap and reached mm tgt from opening range. next tgts are yest 15 and 12 gaps. AIS. poss mm down from 36 spike. bears will STC, scale in higher, prob form spike and bear channel.
37 last STC bar for scalp, 36 STC 10 pip failure. reversed around mm from opening range, SOW of bears. poss bear trending trading range day instead of spike and bear channel. next few bars will provide clues as to which.
39 trending trading range day or large trading range day more likely than spike and channel bear trend. but still prob get second leg down from 35 wedge top / test 36,37 close for STC bears.
40 let 36 / 37 STC bears out BE / with SP after scaling in.
41 bulls and bears buying around 37 close, froming support at mm down from opening range.
42 high 2 buy setup / bopbl from bear mc. 2 legs down. TR or TTRD most likely so traders should look to BLSHS instead of swinging at this point. but ok to buy for swing up, but SSW.
43 outside bear bar, but bears cant get close below support.
44 bulls and bears alternating control, both scalping, fighting for control. forming small TR / low momentum weak bear channel, further confirming TTRD.
46 3 CC bull bars, building BP. bears lacking CC bear bars / FT selling.
47 DTBF with 40, large low 2, BOPBS.
49 bears took profits below 43, LO bulls bought for scalp up, SOW of bears.
Mid day update: today has contained heavy two sided trading, and has remained a LOM with only a few profitable stop entries. A trending trading range day, or large trading range day is most likely at this point, and could turn into a bull reversal day if prices break back into the upper range and close at the high. The bears are still trying for a bear channel, but have failed twice in breaking below the support of the bottom of the range. one more push down could set up a wedge bottom and two legs up.
51 LO bulls made SP buying below 43 without having to scale in. poss flip to AIL soon, bulls prob try to form wedge bottom below 49 or 37.
52 outside bull bar but overlaps several bars. sign of aggressive bulls, building BP. small ET (50,51,52). middle of lower TR, % favors bulls but still AIS. BLSHS.
58 failed bear BO, weak low 1. also a buy setup for wedge bottom. 49-56 poss final flag reversal.
60 parabolic sell climax, failed bear BO of bear TC, wedge bottom. but weak SB, BTW for second entry. but reasonable swing buy.
75 second SCX and failed bear TC overshoot. but weak signal bar (doji), and bulls have not made SP in 20 or more bars.
80 second entry for 75, stronger buy signal bar. double bottom, failed low 1.
83 low 2 / first close above EMA. but after a wedge bottom, 2 legs up likely.
Today was a trending trading range day / large trading range day. Although the bears did get a spike and channel bear trend, it was somewhat weak and acted more as a trending trading range.
Best Trades
24 failed low 2 off bottom of TR, and second entry for 19 ET
35 wedge top, double top bear flag and failed high 2. prices were in a bull channel at this point, and a LOM, so this would need to be taken for a swing down.
42 weak low 1 into bottom of TR. scalp entry was below 42, but buying on a stop above also resulted in a SP, although this was lower % and prob closer to 50 than 60%.
47 double top bear flag, large low 2, and BOPBS to bottom of TR. turned into start of bear channel and good swing trade.
53 weak high 1 at top of bear flag, double top pullback. best entry for a scalper was above 53, however shorting below 54 was also a profitable scalp, but similar to 42 (lower % than required for a scalp).
70 low 2 / wedge bear flag at EMA. failed failure (failed low 2 failed). this entry was riskier since prices were coming off the bear TC and were not quite back to the TL. but it was still an acceptable entry.
80 second entry for wedge bottom, double bottom, failed low 1, second failed attempt for bear BO of bear TC. likely for two legs up, arguably strong enough for a scalp since second SCX (60% of two legs up), but better to take for a swing / test of start of bear channel / bottom of upper TR.
If you find my posts helpful, please provide "thanks" for journal challenge (link below, I am on first page)
I needed this recap today! Thank you. The only trade I actually got (and saw clearly) was the short at 70. Everything else was so slow and garbled that I just wasn't seeing it. Moving from one trading range into another trading range made it difficult to trust anything.
Another positive day under my belt and a good after market review to put in the vault to help next time.
Today really made me appreciate trend days like yesterday which almost felt too easy.
BTW I found something really helpful to get me through the books, text-to-speech! Natural reader is a lifesaver and allows you to study the chart while listening to him discuss it and not have to keep turning back to the image. I'm making good progress now.
i agree, yesterday was a pretty tough day to trade (LOM, lots of sideways, very few stop order entries). i saw it as a trending trading range day so was focused on looking for a late reversal swing trade for a test of the upper range. but have to accept that even though something is probable, the opposite happens 40% of the time! thats just the name of the game and what keeps life interesting (and trading hard!) otherwise we would all be millionaires right! lol
i actually thought the 70 short was more likely to fail and was in a long at the time. prices werent back to the trend line, had just come off the TC and 60 was arguably a wedge bottom. however i exited at the close of 71 or 72 when i was wrong with a small loss. in hindsight (always 2020!) the 49 spike lead to a smaller bear channel (trend line from 54-70, so you were in fact right in taking the short.
another trader and I over at BPA have started a group discussing EUR/USD price action and are going to start reviewing the day in the afternoons / evenings. i if that is something you are interested in ? just let me know and ill send you the link
You are correct, price action all the way. I mainly trade CL, NQ and YM (sometimes the ES) not Forex at this time. However, I always enjoy discussion and accountability and if the 6E is close enough and the times work out I would love to participate.
Today is friday so weekly support and resistance is important. So far this week is a strong bear trend bar, just above last weeks low for a two bar reversal at the EMA. however prices are in a bull MC and reversed up from a failed BO below the two year trading range, making a second leg up likely, and buyers likely below last week (0620). The bears want the week to close on its low (current prices) and will therefore try for a bear trend day today, but after yesterdays weak bear channel the bears need strong selling and FT. The bulls want the week to close above its mid point for a weak bear signal bar, but is relatively far away and less likely (0700 area). Most likely today will contain two sided trading, and some form of TR day.
18 low 2 / failed high 2 but shorting into lows, 10 bears did not make SP (PT just below). ok swing short but % too low for scalp. prices in bear channel, so far bear trend from the open, no bull SP yet.
20 found some buyers below last week (prob mostly PT), bulls attempt at 2BR, but weak, (tail). bulls want to test start of yesterdays bear channel (47) and fill gap, also 36 gap.
21 failed bull BO of bear TL, first two CC bull bars, sign of some buying pressure, but not strong.
24 low 2's are getting weaker and weaker, sign of waning bear momentum. bulls bought 19 new low for scalp up / test of EMA, will scale in lower.
25 bears unable to create gaps other than 10, lacking strong CC bear trend bars, more signs of weakness, decreasing % of strong bear trend day. but no bull SP yet so still AIS.
26 bear TC overshoot, biggest bear bar in bear trend, SCX. poss MG, but more likely EG.
27 strong bears / bulls bought 26 close, filled 26 gap making it EG. both will prob wait for atleast 2 small legs up to sell, prob test of EMA. but tail, could have been stronger bull bar reasonable swing buy, but BTW for more BP.
28 bulls could not trigger 27, but ii bull setup. weak low 1 after SCX and into bear TL, prob BB.
31 bull bar, building BP. bulls bought 29 new low for scalp up after scaling in from 19. within MF of EMA.
32 first break of bear TL, first close above EMA, first LO bull SP. bears prob STC for test of low. potential MTR soon / or atleast TR.
35 bears sold above 33 weak high 1 at top of bear flag. 35 variant of low 2, but NA at close of next bar, and 2 closes above EMA, building BP. second leg up likely even if small from SCX.
36 high 2 buy setup for second leg up, but middle of opening range, top of bear flag without test of low, 50/50%. BTW for LL or HL mtr.
38 big bull BO, reached mm tgt from 37. AIL, but second leg up from SCX, might turn into buy vacuum to top of TR. bulls need strong BO above 1 or 10 TTR with FT before bull trend is likely.
39 large low 2 sell setup, 2 legs up from SCX. EMA gap bar. but strong bull rally, better to wait for second entry. could also be viewed as weak high 1 at top of TR, but TR not yet confirmed.
40 stronger high 1 buy setup, bears could not trigger 39 short. but not a strong bull trend day at this point and buying into highs. more likely SA for scalp down / top of TR.
41 good bull EB, 38 poss MG. but TR still probable, atleast temporarily until test of low. 41 rally prob first of 2 larger legs up
42 stronger sell setup, MDT, small final flag. bears sold 41 close / 38 BTC bulls exited BE, may scale in lower. bulls want channel, to fill gap down, test yesterdays low, and reach yesterday tgts. bears want to fill 37/38 gaps and TR.
44 3 strong bear bars, reached LO bear SP and filled 38 gap. but closed above EMA.
45 4th CC bear bar, so far bears winning (TR). back to AIS, but middle of TR so 50/50% and bulls may try to form channel for second leg up.
48 ii buy setup but weak, first break of bear MC. prob SA for second leg down / fill 31 bull BO gap. bulls trying to form bull channel. but middle of range, maybe 55/45% in favor of bears second leg / test of low. better to BLSH.
50 ttr, two micro pushes up. poss final flag. bulls want to keep prices above 0620 (LOLY).
52 bull BO of small bear flag, bears may give up. poss start of bull channel, not yet clear.
54 bears gave up, spike and bull channel.
55 bulls made SP buying above 42, filled gap. SOS, steep bull channel. somewhat climactic, but 54 prob MG, or mm up from opening range.
56 failed bull BO of bull TC. sell setup for BCX, but prob will just result in PB to TL. mm tgts above based on different objectives, all around same price level (yesterdays ttr close).
62 strong bear EB for 61 second entry short / failed high 1 off bull TC. but reversal weak compared to strong bull rally. although 55 was BCX, strong bull trend. better to look for buy setups off bull TL / EMA or BOPBL to top of opening range.
67 bears attempt to make 66 high 2 fail, but quiet bull flag into EMA. prob buyers at EMA and result in continuation pattern (failed failure, wedge bull flag, BOPBL).
69 DBBF with 59, wedge bull flag off EMA, and BOPBL to top of TR.
70 did not trigger 69, first close below EMA. bears need 1 more pip to make SP from 61. bull TL just below.
72 first break of bull TL, small parabolic SCX. but back into TR.
Today was essentially a large trading range day, but could also be classified as a bull reversal day. the morning opened with a small pullback bear trend from the open. after a SCX prices rallied strongly in a 2 legged spike to the top of the range before entering a bull channel. the bull channel had a strong leg or two, but was relatively weak and broad enough for the bears to generate swing profits.
**Today (and yesterday) are good examples of why it is important to always respect the opposing side of your trade. Nothing in trading is ever 100% and in fact what you strongly believe will be wrong atleast 40% of the time. the directional probability can change in an instant, and a trend can begin on the next bar at any point. so never convince yourself something is going to happen, and try to remain as objective as you can!
What fascinates me is how the DP can flip from one side being continuously trapped out of making a SP (even with scaling in), only to be able to make a huge swing profit and the side who was just making swings becomes trapped out of scalps. 29 was an example of this, although weaker than i have seen (allowed bears to still make SP today).
Best Trades
18 failed high 2 / low 2 off bear TL but into lows so have to swing. did not quite reach full swing profit before prices reversed
28 weak low 1 into bear TC after a SCX. acceptable scalp but turned into great swing.
36 variant of a failed low 2, high 2 BOPBL from breakout of bear channel. since buying high into EMA and into bear flag at that point this would need to be taken for a swing up.
40 (or 42) weak high 1 into top of TR, 2 legs up from SCX, and 38 BCX buy vacuum test of TR. better entry was above 40, but if wanting to wait on confirmation shorting below 42 was also acceptable.
61 second entry short after a BCX and off bull TC. also a failed high 1 and second entry for failed BO above TR.
75 second EMA gap bar (73 first), off bull TL and failed failure (74 outside bear bar tried to make bull reversal fail, only to fail and lack follow through, trapping bears). this would need to be taken for a swing since pries were in a bear mc , although you could argue that 72 and 74 were small SCX's, still better to swing.
79 weak reversal attempt (bull bar), bobpl from bear MC and breakout of bull flag.
If you find my posts helpful, please provide "thanks" for journal challenge (link below, I am on first page)
Man, those SCX and BCX really came in play today. I used to struggle to differentiate between healthy wide range bars and a climax. The nice thing with this method is you don't trade them as is, you typically wait for a second setup like your weak low 1 into the TC in best trade #2 and then the weak high 1 into the TR in best trade #4. Best trade #5 too! The climax sets the scene.
I did get two of your best trades today, #3 and #4. I also had a short on bar 10 (because I use over night data), L2 bopb at a TR low.
I skipped best trade #1 because I couldn't read it with all the overlap and best trade #2 was just too hard for me to take. Reversals are not my forte. I like breakout pullbacks and H2's at the EMA. However, I will take reversals like best trade #4 because I see those as still being with the dominant pressure at resistance.
Thanks for the invite to discuss the day's PA in the afternoons. I'd be happy to participate. I've already picked up so much just from these posts. I love how at the end of the day I can come here and get validation that my own trades were the right call. Profit alone doesn't tell me I was reading things correctly. Even a blind hog will find an acorn now and then.
Ya you make a good point about the climaxes setting the scene, many traders get trapped into the wrong direction because all they see is strength when in fact it is the opposite. Personally, the weak high / low 1s after a climax or at the end of a flag are my two favorite trades. A lot of times there is only 1-2 pips of actual risk and offer great reward potential. like yesterdays trade #2. I bought it, but exited full position at the EMA. i should have held my runner as it turned out to be the low of the day, but i thought my breakeven stop was going to get hit so exited with the SP. but this is something i struggle with mentally and am working on (holding runner until clear reversal or AI flip).
nice trading taking those two trades! I think 10 was a reasonable short as well, since the bulls failed in making the bear breakout fail and instead setup a low 2 breakout pullback, potentially setting up the HOD (which it was for a little while).
I dont take swing trades either because i cant handle the losing %. however i do still try to point the strong (atleast 50%) ones out for beginners and will take a strong (60%) swing trade such as consecutive climaxes with a strong SB. but i am still working on this as i struggle to get in them and tend to wait for a weak high / low 1 instead, which dont always form and instead i miss a great opportunity.
Glad to hear you are learning from my posts, I hope others are as well. If there is something that doesnt make sense that i am saying, just ask and i will explain it. And you are right profit does not mean you are trading correctly! You can enter at the market during 90% of the day and have a 50/50 shot of making money. but that is not the goal (atleast not my only goal). Trading is an art form, and we should all seek artistic perfection of our strategy and ourselves.
Mastercraft29, I'm looking forward to your recap for today. I was hoping you could take a look at my one and only trade from this morning. I don't think you'll have it in your recap because it involves London data.
I saw it as a breakout pullback. Bars 12-13-14 were good bear bars breaking out of the range (enough for AIS?). I considered a sell on the close of 14 but waited for a retest of the TR low, which it did on 15 so I sold the close.
I had in the back of my mind a measured move equal to the orange line leading into the range, which it made and then some.
The rest of the morning I just sat on my hand because the trend didn't "feel" strong, even though it was. Could have kept selling closes in a fairly micro channel.
