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Ya i saw that too, not good.. Causing some heart burn lol.. Guess its time to start looking for a new broker.. hopefully i can find one with reasonable commission rates and work with Ninja Trader.
Al's books haven't really helped yet. I can barely get through 5 pages a night. What I did was watch all his freebie videos like the ones done here. He actually "gives away" a lot whenever he presents. I then start studying my charts and seeing which observations would have had merit in real time. Some of Al's observations seem like he just makes them up in hindsight to tell a story about what happened. Like "just buy the close". Or "just buy the low of this bar". That's easy to say in hindsight. Mack does that sometime to. "Just sell there". Easy in hindsight but impractical in real time without clear criteria of when that's appropriate. Does he go over that in the course?
Watching how the consistent, useful observations play out real time is pretty amazing though.
I really should buy the course but it's a lot of pips. I'm hoping for a sale:-) I trade small. It's the whole reason I moved to forex, eliminate the stress and enjoy trading again.
Today I did not differentiate between scalps and swings. I just scalped 10 pips each.
Oanda's spreads are 1.4 on EURUSD. They work great with multicharts.
I should also note your posts are helping as well. They make total sense to me. I even started numbering bars....lol.
Ya he explains BTC/ STC in the course and in the books. the course is relatively expensive compared to the books, which i prefer better than the videos but they do help convey the messages. but i do not think it will go on sale any time soon, in fact it will likely increase soon (he has a new course coming out). However when i am done with my book (prob a few months from now), it will contain everything you need to know from the course and easier to comprehend and understand. i am planning on sending you a copy when i am done
but right on, trading small and the "i dont care" size and being happy is what trading is all about. we dont want to be stressed out all the time worrying about how much money is on the line. that makes it too hard to be objective.
i do think you are missing an important component of the traders equation though; probability. you have to be really careful about scalping a swing entry, the squares on my analysis are only 40-50 % so need to be taken as swings. if you want to scalp that is fine, but you should focus on only entering 60 % setups (which is what i do). not trying to tell you what to do, just help you in the right direction.
Thanks for recommending Oanda but i have a question about the spreads. So from what i have been told, the spread is essentially the commission right ? so a 1.4 spread on 1000 lots would be 14 cents, is that right? and would it be $1.40 for 10k shares and $14 for a full lot ?
You got it. On a 10,000 lot each pip is worth USD$1. That's all you pay. Also, when I chart I choose "traded". I don't plot the bid or ask which is a nice option.
So yes, 100,000 = $14 spread, 10,000 = $1.4 and 1000 = 0.14. The other nice thing about Oanda is that you're not bound by 1000, 10000, 100000. You can put in 7500 or 483. So if your account is in CAD, for example, and you only want each pip to be CAD$1 then you simply put in 7600 instead of 10000. However if you're in Florida you probably don't care. But you can trade 0.05/ pip if you really wanted. It's better than simulated but won't stress you out that's for sure. I'm comfortable from 10,000 - 30,000.
Most places give you a 1 pip spread on Euro but I don't mind paying the extra 0.4 for quality.
I look forward to your book. And I plan on powering through Brooks books. The trouble is my free time is after the kids go to bed so they put me to sleep.
Overnight there was a bear breakout from yesterdays failed double bottom / failed wedge bull flag, leading to a big bear gap open. The bulls lacked urgency on the open and instead of a strong reversal (failed breakout), prices formed a wedge breakout pullback, potentailly setting up a bear trend from the open. There is a bull BO gap not far below (0646) the bears want to fill, and prices will likely fall to the next level of support (0629 double bottom bull flag), before the bulls will come in aggressively. The bear trend (if develops) will likely begin from some form of double top. However until a strong trend develops, traders should trade what they see, not what they expect.
19 high 2, technically two legs down from the 10 wedge top, but no clear bottom and 18 is prob the first of two legs down instead of the second leg down.
20 two strong bull bars, bears will not want next bar to close as a bull bar and will likely STC. getting close to EMA, within MF, strong bears may wait for test before shorting aggressively.
21 sell signal for failed high 2, 19 bulls will likely exit below providing fuel for SP.
22 bulls defended stop, but could not get bull BO or bull bar. may get 1 more push up to EMA / poss bear trend line copied from lows.
23 bulls concerned about lack of FT, but bears not yet shorting aggressively otherwise 21 would have triggered. 2 dojis weakened bear case. prob waiting for test of EMA.
26 good bear entry bar, 25 reversed from bear TL copied from lows and formed DTBF with 17.
27 bad bear FT, poss bopb for low 2 / better test of EMA.
29 bull FT, but did not close above EMA.
30 low 2 sell setup, but not that strong. middle of opening range. ok swing short, scalp is questionable. building BP, bulls creating micro gaps (20,27,28), SOS.
31 bulls unable to close above EMA, bears not shorting strongly, indecision. middle of opening range 50/50%. prob TR with 10 high. bear channel still poss.
32 good bear entry bar, but bears need strong FT for low 2. otherwise TR, or bulls could take control.
35 back to back LO scalp failures - very unusual, strong indecision. both sides trapped. next move may go far. buy setup for a failed low 2 but stop entry in middle of LOM, so swing only.
36 failed bull reversal, but shorting into lows on a sideways day. Bears have slight advantage of bear BO since opening range is a bear flag (bear gap open). so ok swing short. but SSW. BOM, lower high, higher low. converging triangle.
38 bear BO to new LOD, but tail. bear TL held, but weak channel, bear TC not far below. gap and channel bear trend.
39 2BR up from new low. bulls see as wedge bottom (1,19,39) and will buy for two legs up. Also two legs down from 10 wedge top. if bulls make SP buying new low, SOW of bears and likely transition to TR.
40 strong bull EB, bulls made SP. 19-39 double bottom prob bottom of TR. bulls have chance to breakout above 10 and make mm up to yesterdays low. however bulls need FT bar before AIL. otherwise still AIS but TR. first break above EMA and bear TL so might retest low first.
42 strong outside bull bar, bull BO gap (40). 40 mm tgt is new HOD. 42 potential MG. probably AIL. if not, likely soon. 39 was also ET (25,26,37,39).
43 ET bear flag, low 2, EMA gap bar. but after decent reversal (39). ok swing short, but stop entry in middle of range so 50/50%. prob better to look for longs at this point.
45 low 2 but weak 42 outside bar restarted count. small spike and bull channel, but more likely first of two legs up than channel being second leg up. but bulls still need strong BO above 9 and FT.
47 weak high 1 at top of TR, but new HOD likely, and 40 mm tgt just above. BTW for more information (failed bull BO, or BOPBL).
48 reached mm tgt, weak BO (tail).
49 sell setup for failed bull BO, second entry. top of developing bull channel (21,31,49). not that strong, but reasonable short for test of middle of range / 41 area.
50 good bear EB, 51 buy signal for failed low two. but weak high 1 into bull TC, prob SA for scalp down.
52 bull BO, potentail MG, but bulls need FT bar. otherwise EG and second attempt to break above HOD and stronger sell setup. suspected top of bull channel. bulls prob get second leg up from 39 low but pullback for first leg has not started yet.
54 small pullback bull channel. likely to reach mm tgt which is yesterdays low.
Mid day update; the day has contained two sided trading (although bears have been trapped out since 39) and is therefore likely to remain a trending trading range, or a trading range day. if it becomes a trending trading range it will likely be in the form of a bull trend versus bear, and two sided trading will continue. less likely the day becomes a strong bull trend day, trends relentlessly, and closes on its high.
60 bear attempt at a final flag / wedge top and low 2 reversal, but weak and into bull TL. also small pullback bull trend. more likely to fail and become bull flag.
61 buy setup for a failed low 2, but buying into high. however also a failed wedge if breaks above, so reasonable
67 bull TC overshoot and reversal. reached mm tgt from 52 MG. also a spike and wedge (49,56,67), creating a bear target of the 44 area after a reversal down.
72 bear BO, first close below bull TL and EMA. potential reversal and test of lower range soon.
73 high 2 buy setup for retest of high. bulls likely to take profits above 67, bears should start to short for retest of 44-47 area. less likely (but possible), 67 was first leg of two legs up.
75 strong rally, (argubly strongest in bull trend). second BCX (66 first).
76 weak high 1 after BCX, but no strong reversal yet. safer to wait but prob SA. 10 pip failure for 73 bulls.
77 strong bear bar, BSP. bears need 1 more bar for AIS.
78 bear FT, AIS. weak high 1 after BCX, reversal, and flip to AIS. prob SA.
83 bulls attempting to form double bottom bull flag / high 2 and EMA gap bar. but likely heading to test top of lower range.
84 sell signal for failed high 2
Today was a trending trading range day (or just a large trading range day). After a wedge bottom and failed bear trend from the open, prices rallied in a spike and bull channel. the channel was a small pullback bull trend, continuosly trapping out bears. After reaching a mm tgt and forming CC BCX's, prices reversed down to test the start of the bull channel and top of the lower range.
Best Trades
30 weak high 1 into EMA and high of bear flag. also first touch / close at EMA after a 2 legged pullback. The best scalp entry was above 30, but entering below 32 was arguably strong enough for a scalp (in fact the stop entry target is exactly where prices reversed on 38).
39 wedge bottom, high 2, failed BO to a new low, and two legs down from the 10 wedge top. this was a good swing for two legs up, but the LO bulls had not yet made a SP so was not an acceptable scalp. buying below the 41 weak low 1 after the 39 reversal is arguably strong enough, but at that point was still in the middle of the opening range, so is not considered a best trade.
51 failed low 2, BOPBL and variant of a high 2 (48). since this was going long into the highs on so far a trading range day, this was best taken as a swing for a mm up.
61 failed low 2 / high 2 off EMA and bull trend line. a scalper could have also entered below the 57 weak reversal attempt or bought the EMA during 58. but both were hard to do (small pullback trends always look like they are reversing and there is not enough room for a SP, but in fact the probability is high).
76 sell signal for second BCX and reversal after break of the bull TL and reaching the mm tgt from the 50 MG. this was a swing entry for two legs down / test of the lower range.
78 weak high 1 after a BCX and reversal. best entry was selling above 78, but could have also entered below the 80 failure.
If you find my posts helpful, please provide "thanks" for journal challenge (link below, I am on first page)
There was another sell climax on the 60 minute chart overnight, which filled the bull BO gap I mentioned yesterday, making two legs sideways to up on the 60 min chart very likely (CC SCX 75%). This could lead to a strong bull trend on the 5 minute chart over the next few days. Today opened with a gap down, and so far the bulls have been aggressive, but are lacking follow through with consecutive strong bull trend bars. This suggests the bears should be able to make money at some point today and today should contain atleast some two sided trading. However they have not yet made a scalpers profit this morning, and so far today is a bull trend from the open.
19 the bears tried to form a similar open to yesterday (wedge top) at 13, but failed. 19 is close to the mm tgt up from the failed wedge which is around the gap open and will prob be reached soon.
20 reached mm tgt / filled overnight gap. weak reveral attempt, (bull flag). slight bull TC overshoot but 20 may be a spike on HTF that leads to channel. 19 potential MG. bulls want to fill yesterdays bear gaps (81,104).
21 filled 19 gap. bulls will prob buy close (like 14), scale in lower. but btw for clear setup since in middle of bull channel.
22 doji, bulls bought close. bopb high 1 buy setup, but last high 1 (18 ii) did not reach SP. safer to wait, TL / EMA has MP.
23 weak low 1 into EMA and bull TL, prob BB. BTC bulls will scale in for retest of 20 close (20 reasonable BTC).
24 outside bull bar off bull TL and EMA. high 1 bopbl buy setup.
25 20 BTC bulls holding for SP, SOS. 25 potential MG, mm tgt fills yest bear gaps.
26 strong bull spike, potential BCX. but 26 rally more likely a spike on HTF (is on 60 min) and therefore should lead to channel instead of reversal.
27 sell signal for BCX. might lead to two legs down, but then prob start of channel.
28 weak high 1 after a BCX, prob SA, scaling in using a wide stop like a mm up from the 24-26 rally. but risky (no LO bear SP yet today and bears could not trigger 27 short). better to focus on buying pullback.
31 small converging triangle (bodies) poss final flag reversal for 2 legs down after 29 second BCX. 31 filled yest first bull tgt (104 gap). still mm tgt above from 25 MG / 20 rally.
34 reached mm tgt, filled yest 80 bear gap.
35 extremely tight and strong bull MC. 29 prob MG (surpassed 25 mm tgt without a pause). some selling / PT above yesterdays high (tail). bulls want to fill open gap on 60 min chart / yest gap down.
36 sell setup for second larger BCX (26,35). bears scaling in after selling above 29/30. prob get 2 legs down to EMA / break of steep bull TL. but then prob bull channel instead of reversal.
38 first close below TL, LO bears made SP selling above 31, SI, transition to TR / bull channel soon. bulls want to keep 29 gap open, will prob try to form DB / bottom of TR around 33 / EMA.
39 outside bear bar, building SP. starting to get two sided trading. strong bulls waiting for 2 legs down before buying again. 36 bears will hold for same.
41 first break of bear MC. prob end of first leg down. bulls likely to buy EMA (20EMA gap). NA close of next bar.
44 bulls have switched to scalping (41). prob start of second leg down to EMA. weak lower high MTR. more likely resumption of bull after 2nd leg down.
45 first touch of EMA in 20 bars. bears need strong BO below 33 with FT before AIS. otherwise still AIL. bulls wont want next bar to close as bear, will prob BTC.
46 bulls BTC, high 2 after first break of bull TL and first touch of EMA, DBBF with 33. prob start of bull channel.
49 bulls took profits at new high, bears sold for scalp down. reversed / closed within bull TC copied from 29-45 lows.
50 bopb high 1 buy setup, but high in bull channel so must swing for mm tgt above. LO bears made SP selling above 35 without scaling in (BSP, SOW of bulls). also second attempt to break above yesterdays high that failed (35 first).
52 second entry for 49. reasonable scalp short for test of bull TL. but need to me mentally prepared to reverse back to long. BTW to buy.
56 let 48 BTC bulls out BE. bulls trying to turn 52 into failed low 2. but middle of bull channel, coming off bull TC, and 45 closed below EMA (55 did not reach EMA). AIL but better to buy off bull TL than in middle of channel.
57 bears trying to hold 51/57 as top of TR (double top bear flag). stronger short setup than 52 (failed high 2, second / third entry short). but better to wait for AIS before selling (which prob wont happen today). more likely trading range (bull flag) and remains AIL
Mid day update; today is a bull trend from the open. after a strong rally and bull micro channel, prices developed some two sided trading and entered a bull channel / trading range. The bulls may try to form a bull trend resumption and second leg up into the close. so traders should hold atleast some of position when buying the bottom of the trading range (bull flag).
62 small ttr, three pushes up and attempts to break above yesterdays high. BOM, LOM. BSP.
70 failed bear BO below ttr, weak low 1 into bull TL. but atleast small second leg down likely after 66 micro wedge top, may head to 46 area (bottom of TR and mm down from ttr).
72 first close below bull TL, EMA gap bar. but middle of TR and bear MC from 66 so 50/50%.
73 bear BO. poss SCX vacuum test of bottom of range. bears need BO below 46 with FT before AIS.
74 failed bear BO, sell vacuum. weak low 1 into bottom of TR (bull flag) prob BB and above.
75 stronger low 1 but still into bottom of TR. prob BB.
76 bear BO filled 29 bull gap. next bar important, bulls will not want to close as bear bar, otherwise AIS.
77 doji FT bar. prob AIS but questionable, poss TR.
78 ii dojis, indecision. mkt deciding on direction. bears want a mm down from TR (76 MG) and test of 24. this sell off is arguably a test of the start of the bull channel (29/33).
80 broke bear MC. nested ET (77,78,79,80). poss small sideways final flag reversal. BOM, one side will give up soon (most likely bears).
81 sideways movement at new low represents bear PT (also at swing PT from 66 entry) / weak buying by bulls. bulls have not yet come in aggressively, but are buying and will scale in lower. bulls want trend resumption and second leg up into close.
83 small spike and bear channel (73 spike 77,83 first two pushes down). bears losing momentum. poss broad bull channel (TL drawn from 1,5,11 lows providing support at 83 and fits well on 35,49), but not yet confirmed.
85 ii bull setup and ET. but still within bear channel. better to wait for BOPBL. bull trend line is holding so far.
88 building BP, bulls need breakout back into TR. bull TL holding. may begin second leg up / bull trend resumption into close.
94 bars too small to continue trading. unlikely second leg up begins at this point, prob remain sideways until close. maybe tomorrow!
Today was a bull trend from the open. After a strong bull MC (spike on HTF charts), prices developed some two sided trading and transitioned into a weak bull channel. However the channel acted more as a trading range, eventually breakout out the lower side where prices went sideways in a ttr.
Best Trades
24 high 1 bopbl to EMA. could have entered below the 23 weak low 1, or above the 24 outside bull bar on a stop. either was acceptable for a scalp and turned into a great swing.
32 high 2 off bull trend line, also a failed BCX and reversal. since the signal bar was a bear bar this was best taken as a swing trade.
46 high 2 after first break of steep bull MC, and 20 EMA gap bar.
66 micro wedge top (57,61,66), second (wedge made 3) failed attempts to break above yesterdays high. this was a stop entry in the middle of a ttr (LOM) therefore needed to be taken for a swing.
If you find my posts helpful, please provide "thanks" for journal challenge (link below, I am on first page)
A good question from Faizal (meralf2) on the difference between two entries
How was your analysis of today's 10:45 H2 different from Y's 13:00 H2 for you to take today's for a scalp but leave Y's? Strength of the trend?
Your 46 from today compared to Y's 73
that is a very good question and not an easy question to answer without a lot of detail lol.. so sorry for the long response, and i hope it doesnt confuse you more than help.
the difference is in the type of day and context. yesterday (although it did have a small pullback bull trend) contained two sided trading, where as today the bears were unable to make money until the afternoon. todays strong bull MC was also a spike on HTF charts, so follow through was more likely. Also yesterdays 66 overshot the bull trend channel and prices had reached the mm tgt. yesterdays high 2 was a still good trade (first break below the bull TL, first close below the EMA), however, it did result in a 10 pip failure as the bulls exited above 67. I did not personally take it because i was distracted during the entry and then preparing to get short (as were most other traders from what happened next). had i been paying attention i likely would have taken it. another key difference is the high 1. yesterdays 68 high 1 did not go far, and after the 66 BCX and TC overshoot, the 73 could have been the first of two legs down. on todays high 1 (41) the bulls were able to make a scalpers profit, giving traders more confidence to enter on the high 2 (which resulted in a swing profit). there was also still a mm tgt above based on the 29 open gap. another key difference was the likelihood of a channel. yesterday prices were already in a channel, and today a bull channel was likely after the strong bull rally
