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EURUSD 5min daily analysis


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EURUSD 5min daily analysis

  #51 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

2-1-17



Today opened at the high of yesterdays trading range, and sold off in two legs testing the start of yesterdays bull channel. There are still bear targets below (yesterdays 29 micro gap and 30's breakout gap). The middle of yesterdays ttr open is also a target. If the bulls do not return around the close of 17 and form a larger trading range, prices will likely make a MM down and increase the size of the trading range. Less likely, the bear leg from this morning is the start of a spike and channel bear trend. Unless the bears breakout strongly below yesterdays low, the bear leg is more likely a bear leg in a trading range than the start of a bear trend. More likely, today will become a trending trading range day, or a large trading range day.


18 low 1 after a bear spike, but 17 was a parabolic sell climax, the last STC bar, and second leg down in what is likely to become a trading range, BTW.
20 evidence of buying. likely first bull scalp of morning. prob forming bottom of TR.
21 weak low 2 at the bottom of a forming TR and after a SCX.
23 tail suggest bulls bought below 17. poss final flag reversal.
24 bear FT bar. poss mm down based on 17 spike.
26 weak high 2, little to no BP. prob will fail and test closer to yesterdays low.
29 bears made SP selling below 17 on a stop, SOS. starting to get tails, smaller bars, two sided trading. small bear channel, bulls still weak.
31 outside bull bar with large overlap, so will likely become bear flag / bull trap. but should test closer to EMA than 21.
32 low 2 with trapped bulls but somewhat weak, ok swing short. but SSW, not quite back to bear TL, should test closer to EMA. may continue sideways until 10 AM news announcement.
35 outside bear bar off bear TL, but weak close. technically a low 2, but prob better to wait for one more push up and test of EMA. NA close of next bar.
37 bear gap and BO. overshot bear TC slightly, reached mm tgt, and test of LOY. sell climax. two legs up / TR likely soon. the bears want to continue the sell off and close yesterdays gap open. but two legs down since open, and climactic.
38 weak low 1 after SCX and bear TC overshoot. 37 BO gap likely to be filled.
40 stronger low 1 with trapped bulls. BTW for more information but prob buyers below.
41 second entry for SCX and TC overshoot. but LO bulls still have not made SP, even after scaling in (exited BE on 29-17 pullback). another NA close of next bar.
44 small sideways 2 legged pullback to TL and EMA. lack of urgency by bulls (sideways flag after SCX). small pullback bear trend since 21. prob sellers at EMA (20 gap bar short) and bulls selling to take profits on scalps.
45 first bull SP of the day, first touch of EMA, first close above bear TL. filled bear BO gap. strongest bull bar all day, prob buy vacuum and sellers for test of low.
46 low 2 at EMA after first break of bear TL and first touch of EMA in over 20 bars.
48 bull BO above most recent bear high (35). but weak close, prob top of forming TR. trapped 46 bears out, weak bulls in who bought above 35 on a stop.
49 low 2 at top of suspected TR, double top bear flag with 35, variant of EMA gap bar.
54 bulls attempt at a double bottom bull flag, high 2 higher low MTR. but going long into highs of TR. prob bull trap.
56 stronger bull setup for second leg up after SCX and wedge bottom (17,29,37). ok swing buy, but lots of overlapping bars. bull tgt is 21 start of bear channel.
57 strong bull entry bar, bears prob give up on bear flag premise soon. but could also become a failed high 2 at top of TR. bears exited breakeven after selling below 46 and scaling in. suspected bull channel but not yet confirmed.
58 bull FT bar but still closed within TR high. bulls need BO above before bears will give up.
59 sell signal for failed high 2 at top of TR. also a bopbs from small bull MC up to 48. weak high 1 into top of TR, prob sellers above. unlikely bulls make SP buying on stop above 58 (high of bear flag).
67 LOM, TTR, prob remain sideways until FOMC annoucement at 2.
85 outside up bull bar from bear TC overshoot and failed breakout below LOD and low of TR. prices likely heading to 21 start of bear channel, but bulls need FT before confirming AIL.
86 85 BTC LO bulls were not filled and forced to chase mkt higher. mm based on 85 is open. closed as bear reversal bar for failed BO, but weak compared to 85. prob BOPBL.
87 turned 85 into BCX and large 2BR. but still within TR. should get second leg up from new LOD.
88 BOPB high 1 buy setup, but into high of TR. better to BLSHS, since still within range.
90 89 gap prob MG, poss spike and bull channel.
91 reached first mm tgt. 90 may become MG and reach open. strong bull rally. BTC bull trend.
92 first reversal attempt after BTC bull, weak, should fail.
94 starting to get 2 sided trading (channel phase). but still no pullback below a bar, first will likely be bought.

Today is a large trading range day, and a variant of a trending trading range day. After a spike and channel bear trend, prices entered a trading range until the FOMC announcement. The announcement led to a bull breakout and secong leg up, and may reach a mm target based on the bull spike (open).

Best Trades

22 low 2 bopbs to bottom of yesterdays range and EMA. also a failed high 2 and 10 pip failure for LO bulls who bought below the 18 weak low 1.

35 low 2 at EMA and bear trend line. also another 10 pip failure for LO bulls.

49 low 2 (also a wedge bear flag) off first touch of EMA in over 20 bars and top of TR. Could have entered below 49 on a stop, or above the 51 weak high 1.

59 repeat pattern to 49, same circumstances, stop below 59 or limit above 60 weak high 1.

88 bopb high 1 after a strong reversal (85) from a new low of a bear trend. a second leg up was likely and potentially a bull channel. Buying above 84 was also reasonable for a swing trade but was during a news announcement so riskier and had to be quick.

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  #52 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

I have had a few discussions with another trader on my other thread, who has asked some good questions. I thought it would be helpful here as well so i will copy and paste my answers below.

Hope this helps




1) When you make a limit order and you decide to buy lets say below a bar, how low do you go, a pip below the low of the current bar? What about stops placements for limit vs stop order? I know you recommend bracket orders but this seems a little limiting at times esp when there is a big range I the recent PA

1). typically i place the limit order at the low or a pip below the bar i am trying to enter below. you usually will not be filled if you try to go lower. my stop and targets are the same as if i were entering on a stop (10 pip stop, 10 pip target). you are essentially entering against the stop order, so if you see a place that is unlikely to result in a SP entering with a stop then it is generally a good limit order entry. just be careful with low / high 2's. i tend to avoid using limit orders in these cases but do occasionaly, like yesterdays 72. but just be carefeul since they do stop you out more often than say a low 1 or high 1.

2) Why do you only use 7am to 5pm est in you charts? Do you ever feel like you lose London session PA for S/R clues or pattern formation?

2). nope - everything i need to know is on the chart from 7-5. i started with an 8-5 session but didnt feel i was getting enough information on the open. so after doing some research i saw that around 7 activity picks up, so i stuck with it and like it. however i do analyze the 60 minute chart every morning which includes all price action including all sessions and overnight trading, which is where i generally get my opening statement from

3). and just to get an understanding of what to expect in trading, I know this is all subjective and trader specific but how often do you get stopped out but reenter the trade (assuming you don't scale in)

3). i never scale in, i tried when i was going through the process of figuring out what type of trader i am a few months ago and never had any luck but bad. so i do not scale in and rely on a 10 pip stop for every trade. as far as re entering, that is harder to say. if a low 2 turns into a wedge bear flag i will re enter. but it just depends. todays 49 was a good example. i was stopped out on the 48 breakout, but re entered again below 49. usually when i get stopped out it takes me a few bars to realign with the market before entering again. but again, it just depends on the context and circumstances.


Yeah i was listening to a podcast yesterday, and the trader mentioned that around 5-8am because of the transition period between london and new york, that it can get pretty volatile so it can be tricky. I'm was watching 6am to 7am est on 1/31 was tricky, especially because it moved so fast. I definitely need to get more comfortable with BOs ( i also tend to look to far in the past for S and R, which can make me question myself and work against my instinct which is usually more accurate

it will take you some time (probably atleast a year) to get used to being comfortable with uncertainty. I struggle with second guessing myself even still which costs me because i dont enter when i need to. just understand that learning price action is only half the battle, really only 1/3 of the battle i think. the hardest part about trading is mastering yourself and it is really hard to do. i have been doing this full time for about a a year and a half now and still have not mastered myself. not to mention i also meditate every day and practice "warrior trading" (Way of the Warrior trader, really good book for mental side of trading). but it is never going to be easy, and i think trading is the hardest endeavor you will ever attempt in your life.

On days with more volatility, how do you feel about this approach - using a 20 pip stop and PT to enter, then using actual risk to adjust profit and stop location. I notice that at times a 10 pip stop can be very constricting esp if the bars are moving fast.

as for your question about volatile days, yes absolutely you can increase your stop and profit to 20 pips. but this is going to be very rare cases, like news announcements. i have not had to do this lately that i can remember, and always rely on a 10 pip stop. the alternative is to just wait until the volatility decreases and returns to normal

With limits do you place, for an example, lets say a buy limit immediately after the signal bar closes (how important is speed in these situations also)? Sometimes there's a big spike up afterwards before going in you intended direction down - how do you navigate these situations

with limit orders i enter the order pretty much as soon as the bar closes, if you try to wait you will likely not get filled. but yes you are right and sometimes you do have to hold through the bar looking like it is a breakout in the opposite direction. but other times it immediately goes in your direction (like 1 pip failed breakouts, todays 33 is a good example). you just have to learn to trust your read, and accept you will be wrong 40% of the time. This is much easier said than done though.

random other answer

Hey Christian - I too tend to watch for counter trend scalps (specifically limit order entries). Once I see a successful one i expect a transition soon just as you said. I haven't proven this yet, but I have a concept that if counter trend traders / both sides are making money entering on stops and not just limit orders, then prices are already in a trading range.

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  #53 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014


2-2-17




Today opened at yesterdays high and the mm target from yesterdays late rally. Prices are in a ttr and BOM, setting up a potential trend from the open. This ttr could become a final flag for a reversal down and HOD, but is still holding above the EMA and there is room to the bull trend channel line on the 60 minute chart which may be where prices are heading. Traders will enter on a breakout up or down and look for the opening range to grow severalfold. Typically there will need to be a double bottom or double top before the trend will begin.

17 strong bull bar, but bulls need FT buying. building SP in TTR (outside bear bars, lack of CC bull bars). news announcement close of next bar
18 lack of bull FT, small bar at top of TTR. rare but acceptable stop entry short in LOM.
19 strong outside bear bar. micro wedge top (7,13,19). potential final flag reversal.
22 bull BO, bulls bought EMA. but tail so bears able to influence bar. SOW of bulls, but still AIL. bulls want bull channel, bears want final flag reversal and HOD.
23 2BR, but weak. bulls held close at TTR high. however also weakens bull case for bull trend from the open. reversed down from suspected bull TC line. bulls need to hold TL / above EMA, otherwise potentail reversal soon. still LOM, and AIL.
24 BOPB high 1 long, variant of a high 2 (20). but relatively weak and forcing bulls to buy high in trend channel, ok swing but SSW.
25 weak low 2 into bull TL and EMA. 2 micro legs back from bull BO (23 down, 24 up, 25 down).
27 building SP, first break of bull TL, first close below EMA, bulls should buy for scalp up /test of 22 close.
30 bears attempt at a lower high, weak. but still within TTR.
31 failed bull TC BO. so far today is a small pullback bull trend / tight bull channel. but the bears have been able to make scalpers profit, so weakening bull trend. lack of bull urgency.
32 2BR off bull TC line, but stop entry into middle of bull channel in a LOM so low %. bulls sold 31 close to take profits, bears sold for scalp down, but bears will be willing to scale in above 22.
33 high 1 into bull TC line. tempting to sell above, but still AIL, might get 1 more push to a new high. so BTW unless willing to scale in.
34 bears sold above 33, outside down bar. back to back 2BR's. potential FF top. building SP, at MM up based on TTR. prob developing larger TR. opening range still less than 1/3 of average day so still BOM and trend from the open possibility.
35 high 2 BOPBL to ttr high, variant of a failed low 2. but going long into TC and resistance, poss FF. too low % for a scalp, but ok for a swing.
36 sell setup for a failed high 2 top of range, but would require break below bull TL to scalp out, so BTW for a poss failed bull BO above 31-35 small TR (FF reversal).
37 bulls are trying to reach mm up from 31 spike. bears are holding strong resistance. bears have slight advantage since coming off bull TC line (should head to test bull TL where bears will buy to take profits, bulls will buy to initiate new longs).
38 bears made SP from selling above 33, filled bull 29 gap. might get break of bull TL and test of 20 low (bottom of TR). strong bear bar, but closed at bull TL, and still AIL.
39 lack of bear FT, turned 38 into SCX / vacuum test of bull TL. bulls bought 38 close for scalp up / wedge bull flag. also first EMA gap bar.
42 bopb ii buy setup. bears who shorted below 37 now back to BE price, should realize they were trapped and begin to exit, contributing to the buying. should be buy stops above 38.
45 bear BO but weak (tail). prob bear trap. first break of bull TL.
46 second entry for 42. MDB with 28. failed bear BO. should lead to retest of high, poss a new HOD.
48 second EMA gap bar, DB with 20, 2 legs down from top of TR and first break of bull TL. building SP.
51 bear BO to a new low, but closed within TR. bears need FT and strong breakout below 2. 3 pushes down since 34, third leg parabolic. potential larger wedge bull flag.
52 bear BO with FT, bulls gave up, AIS. 52 potentail MG. mm tgt is close to gap open.
53 tight bear channel since 34. bulls attempting to form failed BO and reversal. but weak SB.
56 BOPB low 1 short. but not quite back to bear TL. 53 was small SCX, might get second push up / bulls attempt to form high 2 at new LOD.
58 bulls second attempt to reverse from new LOD. but still within bear MC. little BP since 31. bulls have not made SP since.
59 weak bull entry bar, setup for a failed high 2 / low 2 bopbs to bottom of range, EMA and bear TL.
Todays range is still small (less than 1/2 of average daily range). either will continue to get failed breakouts above and below range and form larger range, or potential trend into the close.
60 stronger bull FT bar, but could not close above TR low and still within bear TL, SOW. prob sell stops below.
78 first break of bear TL, reached first mm tgt based on opening range. slow sideways day, back to LOM.

Today was a large trading range day. The opening range was small and slow, but doubled in size from a bear breakout as expected (doubling of the range to expand daily range), reaching a mm down. It also turned into a STC bear trend at the end of the day, and will likley fill the overnight gap.

Best Trades

20 wedge bull flag / test and reversal off the EMA on a gap up day (potential LOD). there were also trapped bears (10 pip failure) from the 18 short setup. since it was a stop entry in the middle of a ttr and LOM, it was a swing trade. however it did not quite reach a swing profit (2 pips shy), but was still a decent trade.

34 weak high 1 into high of TR and into bull TC. also became a 1 pip final flag reversal and LHMTR.

50 failed high 2 / bopbs to bull TL and EMA. bulls failed to hold bottom of TR and double bottom bull flag with 20.

60 low 2 / failed high 2 bopbs to bottom of TR.

79 low 2 / wedge bear flag at EMA after first break of bear TL. also a failed bull BO above the TTR (bear flag)

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  #54 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

some more good questions


based on my current simulated trading (can't trade for real at the moment due to work), I tend to get the general direction right but the precise timing needed esp with 10 pip stops is difficult because of forex volatility. I notice that the PA is not as "clean" as the emini. Like today (2/2) my gut told me to be AIS by 34/35, there was overhead resistance on the 60 min chart and it appeared to be a multi day MTR, and there was heavy selling pressure this morning - however, the bulls kept throwing me off with the spikes, esp 31. That's where I started to second guess myself and started to get trapped by the market (I was looking for bull reversal through 39-59), even though the 38 bear spike should have been a warning. Days like today are especially tricky but the shorts at 79 and 60 were more clear in real time. 20 and 28 EMA touches were good trades too - I thought that since there was a strong bull move prior that it was better to buy low until the SP stated to increase.

I'm trying to make rules for myself, on days like this, if I'm tempted to get into a proactive trade, to instead wait for the failures, so using the opposite of my instinct since I figure a lot of traders might also be trapped. I'm also thinking of playing with larger stops and smaller positions, then scaling in on days like this with heavy 2 sided trading. This doesn't work that well with big trend days though (happen a lot) so its important to know the difference, esp early.

I am not sure why you are concerned about volatility and a 10 pip stop? I use one all day long and most of the time my stop is above the signal bar. The average size of a bar in a given day is usually less than 10 pips.. its comparable to using a 2 point stop in the ES (really a 3 since the average bar in the ES is 2 points..) you are right about forex not being as "clean" as the ES, which i believe is due to the markets being unregulated. but in all honesty you will be fine using a 10 pip stop and i strongly encourage you to not scale in. atleast until you have traded for some time.

dont feel bad about this mornings ttr, limit order markets can be tricky. and i too was looking for a bull reversal during 39-59, in fact i bought the close of 38. at that point the market was still in a bull channel, and 38 was a small sell climax / buy vacuum test of the bull trend line. the bears ultimately won out and got the breakout, but you were doing the right thing. you just have to accept the fact that 40% of the time you will be wrong, thats just the way it is. i didnt see the market as AIS until the 51 bear FT bar, and up until that point the day was a trading range. as for 28, i didnt necessarily see a setup there. however i did buy below the 25 weak low 2 reversal (at that time i thought the channel was steeper), but exited at breakeven as prices broke out on 29 and reached my target (of course! )


The 43 area looked like a bull trap to me - TTR above the MA that was becoming more flat.

43 was a bull trap, and you are right about the flat EMA and TTR. but it was also a short into the bull trend line. so technically it should have worked, but again that 40% rule comes in.. so basically if you were to short at 44 (reasonable), i think you would need to take it for a swing down since you are trading it as a reversal, and at that time against a bull trend (and into a bull trend line, which this is usually not a good place to go short). in hindsight (always 20/20!) the bull trend line was in fact steeper as i originally had it, and 28 broke that bull trend line, turning 34 into a lower high MTR.

One more question - approx. how many trades would you say you take in your daily session and how spread apart are they? How long do you think about a trade before taking them - looking at the PA for me to spot good swings I need at least 45 mins -1 hour of PA to begin to sense a move

in a given day, i would say i take an average of 3-5 setups. but i am working on forcing myself into more trades as i tend to watch many go without me that i should have entered. it just depends on the context and day really on how far apart. if i am holding a runner i tend to focus on it and dont enter a second trade, but this is something i am working on and intend to do. for a swing trade that sounds about right because you can anticipate them a little easier. scalps are different though and you have to be relatively quick and act fast when the opportunity is presented. but in general you can still anticipate them atleast a bar or two in advance.

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  #55 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

Yeah you're right in that regard, it's probably my inexperience with market conditions, big moves still tend to scare me a little. I think it's also the fact that since i can't trade i'm not that familiar with trading platforms. I'm using FXCM's trading station to demo live but they only have entry orders that have to be manually put in so i fumble around typing in the stop and limits, i need to figure out a way or platform where i can save order types if that option exists just to make the process more efficient. Also I don't think there's a way to take partial profits (in forex tester, this option doesn't exist and due to my profit limit being 100% I take profits too early on certain good setups), if a trade starts going pretty well, I'd like to keep a part of it on.

I understand, it takes time to be comfortable and "not worry." That sucks about FXCM, the OCO automated stategies on ninja trader are great for this issue. You can save order types like you are refering to on NT. It makes it way easier when flipping between scalping and swing trading (if that is something you plan on doing). But it does cost money, i think its like $20 a month but not sure anymore since I bought the license a while back..

While it is nice to catch the occasional runner, if you are scalping the majority will get stopped out breakeven. So my point is it is OK and mathematically acceptable to exit all of your position at 1X risk (assuming you are scalping). In fact, in a lot of cases it is the better thing to do, otherwise if you continue to get stopped out on a runner depending on how many contracts you are trading, you can end up with a negative traders equation. I am currently running 1/3 of my position with a breakeven stop, but am starting to lean towards taking my full profits at a scalpers target, atleast until i am profitable enough to decrease my runner to 1/5 (which will better my traders equation).


I'm starting to get more comfortable with the traders equation, initial risk vs actual risk, and structuring trades though, Al's webinar recordings are great in this regard, I started to really get comfortable with limit entries after watching a few videos and practicing the concepts on forex tester.

As for initial risk and actual risk. I do think this concept is important to understand. However, I think it can hurt you as well, especially in forex. it gives you the impression you should exit some or most of your position at 1xAR, but in fact you should not exit with less than 10 pips. I do not use AR in my traders equation, and instead rely on the 10 pip profit and stop. The only time i think it is acceptable to exit with 1XAR is if your premise is no longer valid and you are scratching the trade (instead of exiting breakeven it makes sense to exit with some profit).


And do you still use the 10 pip stop and limit bracket order on larger reversals like MTR? (not TR reversals). What are your thoughts on price action stops, I know you said most bars are smaller than 10 pips but what if the market requires a larger stop based on the context? Again, since i'm new if these questions seem rudimentary it's purely due to my lack of experience but i do greatly appreciate the responses

I think price action stops are the way to go, versus using a swing stop (if scalping). unless you are a scale in trader, but i highly advise against that for begginers. although i do think you have a good understanding of price action, it is still hard to convince yourself otherwise when you are wrong and need to exit instead of scaling in. I know from experience! And it is costly. But when the volatility is high and the bars are big, using an increased price action stop is the better thing to do (versus trying to use a 10 pip stop), but you have to also increase your target. however this is very rare. i think the better thing to do is wait for the volatility to die after a few bars, and then rely on a 10 pip stop. such as todays 19-21, the bars were big for a little while, but then they returned to normal and a 10 pip stop was acceptable to use (23), and even above 21 even though it was a big bar.

But personally i do not trade MTR's. I am a scalper, so focus on high probability scalps. with this said, I will (working on this) enter a 60% swing trade, such as consecutive climaxes, wedge reversals, and late reversals on trending trading range days for a test of the upper range. i just started to plan on doing this this week though, after watching many go without me over the past few weeks, waiting for a scalp to setup. And it cost me on monday (took too many swing trades that were not 60%). so I still have work to do on this. It can be hard to limit yourself to only the best swing trades, especially when you are a scalper. however it does make sense to enter these best swing trades since you are already waiting on high probability and you should take advantage of the opportunity.

while i am a firm believer in using the traders equation on every trade, i think i can help you with something. instead of trying to take the trades you see or trying to decide between a scalp or a swing, pick one (which ever suits your personality), and only trade that way. so either take every potential swing trade and go for a swing profit, or focus on high probability and only scalp. if you try to mix the two (atleast as a begginer), i think it is too hard to do. what you end up doing (again, i know from experience), is cherry picking the losing scalps, and only entering the poor swing trades. or managing a swing as a scalp, or a scalp as a swing. a swing trader has to enter every swing trade to make his system profitable overtime. and a scalper can cherry pick, as long as they are only entering 60% setups they can enter all, or few.

also, your questions are not rudementary.. we all have to start somewhere and have all been there. and i am happy to help. all i ask is you remember me when you are rich

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  #56 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

2-3-17




Yesterday ended in a STC bear trend and sell climax, making two legs sideways to up likely today. Today is friday so weekly support and resistance is important. The weekly bar is currently and outside up bull bar and failed low 2 at the EMA. The bulls need the week to close above the weekly EMA (1.0767) for a sign of strength. The bears want the week to close around its open (0721) for a doji bar.

19 big outside bull reversal bar from a second SCX (tail). bulls need FT before convincing AIL. bulls failed to close above most recent swing high from yesterday, suggesting poss top of TR instead of reversal, but will likely become first of two legs up from CC SCX.
20 big 2BR, not good for bull premise of bull spike and channel trend. prob developing TR and 19 was buy vacuum test of top.
21 conerging triangle (bodies), BOM. high 1 bopbl buy setup, decent close. but going long into high of suspected TR, better to buy lower unless buying for swing and mm up.
22 variant of a low 2 (20) failed high 1, top of TR, trapped bulls. first EMA gap bar of bear trend, but flat EMA.
23 triangle is getting tighter, back to back failures. high 2 buy setup but in upper half of TR. bulls trying for second leg up.
25 bull BO, AIL, 25 potential MG. mm up is test of bottom of yesterdays TR.
26 bull urgency, (24 and 25 BTC bulls not filled, forced to chase mkt higher). BTC mkt, tight bull MC for second leg up. prob spike on HTF charts, may lead to larger second leg up and channel.
27 outside bear bar, two legs up. potential spike and climax bull trend. but bears will prob need second entry after strong 26 rally. first attempt to break bull MC. 26 BTC bulls should scale in for retest of close.
28 bears made SP selling above 19, SOW of bulls. strong bear entry bar, but bears need strong FT bar / fill 25 gap and BO back into TR. otherwise more likely to be bull channel or bull trending TR day.
29 bear FT bar, bull channel still possible (copied from 19-27 highs), but becoming less likely. 27 two legs up probably not enough to correct large SCX and bear trend from yesterday. prob first of two legs and bulls get test of yesterdays 61 start of bear channel, should atleast test 79 at min (start of second leg down).
31 bull reversal off suspected bull TL. slightly kept 24 gap open. broke bear MC down to 30. suspected end of bull flag.
33 turned 32 into high 2 bopbl buy setup. but bear signal bar so need to swing. confirmed bull channel.
34 BOPB buy setup from 33.
36 high 2 buy setup off bull TL and EMA. also a bopbl to top of TR. should test 26 high for BTC bulls.
37 26 BTC bulls exited BE (tail) instead of holding for SP / new high, SOW of bull trend. but still mm tgts above based on 19 bull body and 25 MG, which coincide with yesterdays 79 and 60.
38 prob buy stops above from 37 failed low 2 and new HOD.
41 reached first mm tgt (yesterdays 79). bears slightly able to influence bar at new high (tail), sugessting bull profit taking and bears selling. but bears will likely have to scale in to make a profit after 3 strong bull bars.
42 weak high 1 into bull TC line, strong bulls and bears prob sell above. spike and bull channel, but not that strong (lots of overlap, selling pressure, bulls not making SP buying new highs). so will likely convert to a trading range or trending trading range by EOD, and test 23 start of bull channel / second leg up.
46 reached second mm tgt and yesterdays 60. 46 second spike somewhat parabolic. 2 legs up from 39 failed low 2. will prob begin to form TR, bears prob come back in and scale in for test of 35 / 23. but BTW for more SP.
47 weak high 1 into bull TC and after a successful high 1 (42). 40% swing buy, 60% short scalp.
49 BSP, bears scaling in for test of 27 high.
50 bears made SP scaling in, transition to TR soon. bears likely to get close below EMA.
53 first break of bear MC. bulls want to keep 40 gap open and become MG. more likely trading range forming. new high / retest could lead to wedge top and reversal back down to 35/23.
54 bears made SP selling on stop below 46, more evidence of TR soon. first close below EMA.
55 bulls bought 54 close. high 2 buy setup off EMA and bull TL. ok swing buy but scalp is questionable (lots of overlap, 52 and 53 not all that strong), prob better to wait.
56 ok bull entry bar, but not great (small still within small range, overlap). lack of urgency of bulls, bears might get break of bull TL.
57 good bull FT bar. 54 BTC bulls reached SP.
63 first break of bull TL, 10 pip failure for 55 entry
69 bears attempt at a failed high 2, but prob forming bottom of TR (bull flag). bulls will try to form DBBF with 55. bears need strong BO below 55 with FT.
71 DBBF with 55. failed low 1.
80 bear BO with FT, AIS. likely heading to 35 area.

Today will probably close as a large trading range day, and slightly above the weekly EMA (currently holding above). After a news announcement and big bull reversal bar, prices entered a bull channel, reaching a mm up from the 26 MG and testing the start of yesterdays bear channel. the day could be considered a type of trending trading range day, testing into the middle range in the later half of the day, and closing as a doji on the daily chart as they often do.

Best Trades

21 weak high 1 at the top of a trading range and a failed bull BO. reached a SP to the tick before the 23 reversal and start of bull channel. (2 legs down were also likely before the bull channel began after the 19 spike, 20 was the first).

23 high 2 bopbl off the EMA. this is a swing trade due to going long into the high of a tr (40% probability, maybe as high as 50% since the bull spike and two legs back and possible formation of a channel, either way still a swing).

32 high 2 bopbl to previous HOD and EMA. the signal bar was a bear bar. (in a strong bull trend this is acceptable but requires a swing profit). had to endure the pullback to the double bottom, but stop was not hit.

36 stronger high 2 off EMA than 32. also a BOPBL and failed low 1 at bottom of bull flag. a scalper could have entered 1 of 2 ways; buying below the 34 weak low 1, or above the 36 bull signal bar. both were acceptable scalps.

38 failed low 2 in a bull trend and off the bull trend line. great scalp, turned into decent swing profit too.

76 failed high 2, failed double bottom bull flag. arguably a lower higher MTR after the 70 break of bull TL. prices were likely to test the start of the bull channel (35 / 23).

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  #57 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

Yeah post reviewing material this weekend, esp if the signal bar is small, theoretically, since the risk is low, so is the reward but in those cases, if the context is good, then according to Al's material, it's worth pursing the trade and going for more than 1x actual risk, at the minimum 10 pips. I think an example could have been in 2/3 bar 62, it was a weak buy signal at the top of a TR and potential DT with 46. The risk was fairly small but i'd figure that the probability of the market going 10 pips above rather than 10 pips down was lower, so it was worth a trade, esp since the bars up were small and low momentum compared to 41-46.

Exactly. When the bar is small and therefore the risk is low, the probability is also low (40-50%) so a reward would need to be 2X risk. the only way to increase probability in these situations is to use a wide stop and scale in, which increases your risk. just always remember the trade off between the traders equation. but i still think you (or anyone) would be better off to pick a stategy and only trade that way. So either swing, scalp, or practice always in trading. but mixing the three is hard to do. however a scalper could argue that during an always in situation the probability is 60% and therefore worth entering, but you have to use the correct stop (below the spike) and be willing to endure a pullback which is mentally hard to do when the risk is large. Today's (2-6) 33 bull spike is a good example of this.


With that said, when you are scalping for 10 pips, do you usually get filled on your profit limits at 10 pips, in watching the webinars, to make 4 ticks in the emini, a trade usually has to go 5 ticks above, so applying the same logic, in forex, does the trade have to go above 11 pips? Also with spreads, do it make sense to have a PL slightly larger, say 12 pips?

Yes my profit taking limit order is 10 pips above my entry price, so the market has to generally move through your limit order (to 11 pips) to fill your target. the concept is the same as the emini, and every other market. if your profit target is filled before ticking through to 11 pips, look to enter again in the same direction because the market is likely trending and has further to go (this is a sign of strength). however you have to be careful with forex since the markets are unregulated; depending on which type of chart you use (bid or ask) your targets / orders can be filled without the chart showing it.

As for increasing your target to 12 pips due to spreads. To be honest i do not care about the spread. FXCM does well to keep the spread low (atleast in my experience). and i have not had any issues. And i do not think it is a good idea to increase your target to 12 from 10. The instiutions are clearly using 10 pips for scalps (sometimes 7 when the market is slow), and so should you. Otherwise if you try to go for say 12, and they are scalping for 10, the market is going to reverse before hitting your target, and you are now holding a open profit of 10 pips for the market to go 2 (so essentially risking 10 pips for a 2 pip target, which results in a negative equation). So if you are going to increase your target from 10, it should be to 20 for a swing trade.


If you buy below bars and do not get filled, do you scratch the trade or depending on context chase the market up?


No, I never chase the market. if i do not get filled, oh well. i move on and look for the next entry. chasing the market is in my opinion, a sign of emotional weakness (and what weak bulls or weak bears do). however, urgency is a different situation. if the market is clearly always in and you feel you HAVE to get in, this is urgency and in this case OK to enter at the market, but even then i rarely do this, and instead wait patiently for a disciplined entry.

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  #58 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

2-6-17




Overnight there was a spike and channel bear trend on the 60 minute chart, leading to a sell climax on todays open. There is a shrinking stairs / three push potential minor wedge bottom on the 60 min chart. There is also a head and shoulders top, which most fail and become a continuation head and shoulders pattern which is a type of wedge flag. All suggesting two legs sideways to up at some point today, unless the bears are able to break strongly below the large trading range.

19 weak low 1 short setup after a parabolic sell climax (15) and decent reversal (16). prob buyers below for test of EMA. next bull tgt is top of 12 SCX.
21 let 15 STC bears out breakeven / with SP after scaling in. turned into good reversal bar, second entry buy for 15 reversal. ok swing buy for 2 legs up.
22 ok bull entry bar, not great (tail), but still bull bar. prob sell stops below for failed high 2. also poss tight bear channel (reversing down from TL from 5-12).
23 sell setup for failed high 2 / failed reversal. small trading range, bulls may make one more push up to EMA, but should exit below.
25 bulls attempt to make 23 failed low 2 and bottom of TR, but failed signal bar. tail suggest bulls exited BE at 22 entry price. mm tgt below based on 15 spike which is same as mm down from gap open.
26 tail so PT at new low. getting some two sided trading. bulls have made SP buying around lows, scaling in. bears are not holding for swings below lows. prob transition to TR soon.
27 inside bull bar, 2BR, second entry long. but better to wait for more BP before looking to buy. still AIS although bears are weaker than they could be.
28 good bull EB, but still within bear TL. bulls prob will get break and test EMA but need FT buying to flip to AIL. strong bear trend from the open unlikely. more likely trending trading range day or large trading range day.
29 broke bear TL (slightly), weak close. building BP. potential revesal / LOD /swing low soon.
30 bulls made SP buying below 21 low / buying previous lows and scaling in. TR likely soon, poss flip to AIL.
31 good buying pressure, 5 bar rally in tight MC. bears should give up on bear flag / bear trend premise.
33 weak low 1 weak EMA gap bar. prob buyers below / soon. higher low and second leg up likely.
34 bears attempting to form broader bear channel and second leg down. possible, but less likely after strong rally.
35 bopb high 1 buy setup, trapped weak bears. buying high in forming TR, but no sign of top yet and mm tgts above. safer to wait for higher low / start of second leg up.
36 low 2, second EMA gap bar. bopbs from 35 break of bull MC. reasonable swing short. bears still trying to form broad bear channel.
38 bears are holding bear TL, but cant get close below EMA. variant of a failed high 2 and bopbs.
40 high 2 / wedge bull flag, higher low. ok swing buy. both sides fighting for FT (lower high, higher low, dualling trend lines). mini ET (33,35,36,39). EMA becoming sideways.
42 bulls won, start of second leg up. bull channel / trading range. mm tgt is HOD.
45 top of bull channel, bulls reached first tgt (above start of 15 SCX).
46 bears want to form wedge bear flag (19,36,46). but no SP since 40, strong rally. better to wait for test of TL before buying.
49 reached mm tgt from 33 spike. failed bull TC breakout. should pullback and test bull TL soon.
Mid day update; opening range still about half of average daily range. bulls may get BO and mm up based on opening range / fill gap open after 26 failed bear BO. however two sided trading will likely to continue throughout the day.
50 weak high 1 into TC and in an area where scale in bears add on (after selling above 36). however bulls were able to make SP buying above on a stop, SOS. AIL, better to look for buy setups.
51 II sell setup, bulls want to keep 48 gap open and become MG. bears see 50/51 as wedge bear flag and 2 legs up from 27 wedge bottom / top of TR.
52 tempting to sell above, but only for a scalp and have to be able to flip mentality back to long after exiting. if cant, better to wait for buy setups until clearly AIS.
53 sideways for past 5 or so bars, doji ii setup. potential final flag reversal setup.
55 came up 1 pip short for SI bears to exit with SP. but will likely be reached soon and should get a close below EMA / test of bull TL.
57 reached bear SP. combined buying by bear scalpers and bulls bought 56 first close below EMA led to bull reversal bar. quiet bull flag pullback to TL. ok swing buy but not quite back to TL and higher % to wait for second entry (bopbl from small bear mc).
58 one more small push down would form nested spike and wedge (bodies) (54 spike 56,58 2 pushes down).
59 weak low 1 into bull TL and EMA and at bottom of bull flag. more likely buyers below for BOPBL and new HOD than to result in bear SP.
62 low 2 into bull TL and bottom of bull flag. more likely bear trap.
68 small sideways ttr, LOM but still within bull TL. still AIL. mkt prob waiting on FOMC news announcement at 1:30 before deciding clear direction.
73 bear BO, first break of bull TL. 49/71 double top may be top of TR.
74 bear FT but still within small ttr. bears need FT below. otherwise still bull flag. building SP.
81 bull BO (weak, tail), to new HOD. test of high after break of bull TL, making 57-80 small TR potential final flag.
83 sell signal for the final flag reversal. ok swing short, but higher % to wait on second entry after 3 bull bars.


Today was a trading range day. After an early sell climax, the bulls formed a small wedge bottom and rallied the market into a spike and bull channel, forming the upper side of a trading range. There is a possibility the range will grow to a mm target during the close in a strong micro trend, increasing the daily range to a normal size.

Best Trades

23 failed second entry long, trapped bulls. also a low 2 short after a strong bear leg (although climactic).

27 larger high 2 and wedge retest of 15 low. could also be considered a wedge bottom (15,21,27). good swing entry for two legs up / test of 13 SCX

42 high 2 higher low MTR after a strong bull rally (33) and wedge reversal. this was arguably strong enough for a scalp, but was better to swing.

59/63 59 weak low 1 into bottom of bull flag and ttr. also could have waited for the 63 failed low 2 and entered with a stop above.

78 weak low 1 into bottom of bull flag and bottom of small trading range (bull flag). also was a second entry long and second EMA gap bar. turned into a good swing if held some of position.

If you find my posts helpful, please provide "thanks" for journal challenge (link below, I am on first page)

Thanks!!




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  #59 (permalink)
 tradingonvolume 
Rhode Island, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Multicharts
Trading: Any Instrument
Posts: 48 since Jul 2009
Thanks Given: 69
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mastercraft29 View Post
59/63 59 weak low 1 into bottom of bull flag and ttr. also could have waited for the 63 failed low 2 and entered with a stop above.

Hey mastercraft29, I voted for your thread.

I had all the same trades as you today except the 59/63. I just passed with so much overlap.
Thanks for the post.

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  #60 (permalink)
 
Stillgreen's Avatar
 Stillgreen 
Oregon
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES
Posts: 196 since May 2014
Thanks Given: 356
Thanks Received: 248


@mastercraft29, I just saw this :


I hope your trading isn't adversely affected by this.

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