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EURUSD 5min daily analysis


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EURUSD 5min daily analysis

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  #31 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014


Stillgreen View Post
@mastercraft29, when you scalp do you enter with 2 positions, take half off at 10 pips and let some run for longer ? How about your swing trades -- do you have a fixed first target ?
I'm enjoying your analysis -- thank you.


I am a scalper, I do not take any swing trades (I prefer high % and cannot mentally take losing as much as a swing trader does). But you have to trade a system that is within your personal comfort level.

I scalp out 2/3 of my position and run 1/3 with a breakeven stop. But I focus on 60% setups.

As for your question about a full pip / half pip. I do not pay attention to half pips. I only go down to whole pips (4 decimal places 1.0733 for example). I always use a 10 pip stop and never tighten it, even if it is above / below the signal bar. However if my premise has changed or I am clearly wrong, I will exit sooner.

Glad to hear you enjoy the analysis, hope it helps you.

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  #32 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

1-23-17




Late start today, sick with stomach virus last night. Not sure that I will make it through the whole day but will try. Sorry

33 high 2, double bottom. large trading range / descending triangle or weak bear channel.
35 weak low 1 after 33 decent reversal. but almost in middle of range and bulls may become quick to exit if prices do not rally to top of range. % favors bulls (lower third of TR)
36 4 bar bull rally, 34 BO gap. mm tgt from 36 is HOD. bears will try to form another lower high for bear trend line but flat EMA, double bottom and double top so trading range more likely.
38 weak high 1 at top of TR, and first break of bear TL. prob SA SI. also a weak low 1 after a 5 bar rally, but too close to high / middle of TR to buy. poss 1 bar final flag.
39 ii setup, doji signal bar. increases % of final flag reversal. SI bulls want to test 21 close.
40 strongest bull bar of bull rally. ML EG (BCX), but could become MG. closed right at first mm tgt, 37 mm tgt not far above (new high).
41 reversal signal for failed BO to new HOD and BCX. bull leg contained BO,MG, and EG. ok swing short but SSW for second entry since 41 was not all that strong.
44 second BCX, but weak reversal bar for bears. 40 might become MG afterall, unless the bears come in aggressively.
45 stronger second entry for failed BO to new HOD on mostly sideways days.
47 bull setup for failed low 2 and bopbl. LO bears exited with SP after selling above 44.
49 bulls are trying to form a bull channel and make mm up based on 40 / height of TR. building SP, both sides alternating control every 2 bars.
50 bulls attempt at a H2 bopbl, but weak signal bar. ET (41,42,45,50). bulls wont want next bar to close as a bear bar, or fill 40 gap.
51 filled gap, bear BO with FT (although weak). prob back to AIS, top of range.
59 10 pip failure for bulls who bought 53. prices tried 2-3 times to fill profit taking limit order and failed, bulls should exit below for a failed high 2 at top of TR.
64 outside bear bar, another failed high 2. prices likely to test bottom of TR, possibly make new LOD. should fill 33 BO gap at min before EOD.

Today was a trading range day, spending most of the day in a 30 pip range.

Best Trades

33 high 2 at bottom of TR, double bottom with 28 and 2 legs down since open. Acceptable scalp but turned into good swing trade.

45 second entry short at a mm target and failed BO at a new HOD on a mostly sideways day. also a final flag reversal after a buy climax. had to hold through the 48 pullback but was an acceptable scalp.

59 10 pip failed high 2 / lower high after failed BO of HOD. and second entry off top of trading range.

64 outside bear bar, another failed high 2 with trapped bulls off the top of the trading range. also a BOPB to 59. could have shorted above the 62 weak high 2, below 63 as 64 became an outside bear bar, or below the 64 outside bear bar (if wanting to wait for confirmation of it becoming a bear bar).

Notice that all entries today were acceptable scalps. This would be expected on a trading range day since the institutions are buying low, selling high, and scalping.

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  #33 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014


1-24-17




The bulls have filled another bear gap from back in December on the 60 min chart, and have almost reached a mm target, creating a larger trading range. Yesterday was a weak bull channel (also a trading range day), and todays gap down broke the bull trend line. Prices will likely test yesterdays high and potentially form a reversal for two legs down. The bears want to fill yesterdays 34 bull BO gap and start of the bull channel (either 70 or 33).

16 ttr open, failed low 2 / wedge bear flag. AIL for a test of HOY. bear gap open prob will be filled.
17 weak bear attempt at a lower high mtr / failed breakout of ttr. more likely to become BOPBL. poss broader bull channel (todays 13 reversed up off it). LOM bears have not made a scalp since early yest afternoon
19 bull BO, potential MG.
20 inside bear bar for 2 bar reversal, but weak SP. no LO bear scalps yet, so stop entry unlikely to result in SP. but poss SA for scalp down. bull mm tgt from 19 fills overnight gap.
21 II bull setup, but doji. however weakness by bears (could not trigger 20 short). prob buyers below. tight bull MC.
23 first break of bull MC. bulls will not want next bar to close as bear bar and will prob buy close. building SP but still AIL.
24 BO test of 13. variant of a H2 (21). LO bears who sold 20 high needed 2 more pips for SP. will have to exit early / ATM unless 13 gap filled. ok swing buy (weak SB), but SSW.
25 LO bears trapped (10 pip failure). bull BO of bull flag prob buyers below for BOPBL / weak low 1 at bottom of bull flag. also reversed up off broader bull TL.
27 second attempt by LO bears to reach SP. still within broad bull channel.
28 reached bear SP / filled 13 bull BO gap. building SP since 20 but bears need BO with FT to flip to AIS. closed below broad bull TL. but still holding above top of yest TR (todays open).
29 2BR for a high 2 BOPBL to ttr open and top of yest range.
30 bulls bought below 29 weak low 1. ok swing buy for high 2, but bear bar for SB and overlap with past 3 bars, so SSW.
31 strong bull entry bar. LO bears scalped out, wont sell again until prob above 19, leaving market 1 sided.
32 bull BO, filled overnight gap. potential MG, mm tgt is above HOY.
33 weak low 1 reversal attempt, unlikely to result in SP selling on stop so good LO buy.
34 high 1 bopbl but buying into high and test of yest high. prob better to wait.
35 low 2 2BR, failed high 1. but 32 gap still open, mm tgt above. low % short, but bears getting stronger.
36 failed low 2, bopbl, high 2 buy setup mm target.
37 reached mm target where bulls took profits (tail). arguably second buy climax. less likely 37 becomes MG.
38 2BR, final flag reversal. sell signal for BCX / mtr. ok swing short, but might get 1 more push up for wedge retest of HOY.
39 strong bear entry bar, but bears need 1 more bar for AIS. first bear tgt is yest 70.
41 bear BO with FT, AIS for 2 legs sideways to down. mm tgt is growing with bear spike. min tgt is below 31 BCX, but yest 70 likely to be tested, 33 BO gap also a tgt.
42 2BR, strong bull bar (shaved top and bottom), but now AIS. prob SA or not far above. may test 39 bear BO gap and form LH.
47 failed high 2 / wedge bear flag. small ttr may mark end of first leg and provide mm tgt for second leg. but middle of days range so 50/50% and not a lot of room to OOD (bottom of days range). % slightly favors bears for second leg down but may test higher first.
48 back to back reversals, LOM. bulls / bears fighting for control. small ET (43,44,45,47).
49 bulls want to fill 39 gap and keep 31 open. bears want to fill 31 gap and keep 39 open. bears have slight advantage for second leg down, but close to 50/50%.
50 bear BO, filled 31 gap. possible small bear channel for second leg down after 41 spike.
51 bears selling above bars / bull closes. bulls buying below lows, both scalping. LOM, bear channel.
54 tempting short, failed high 2 off bear trend line. but stop entry in middle of days range and LOM. ok swing but scalp is questionable due to location.
65 bull BO, first break of bear trend line. BO test of 39. 61 failed low 2 could be viewed as wedge bottom (50,56,60). but prices still within ttr, middle of days range and LOM.


Today was a trading range and bear reversal day. After breaking a bull trend line from yesterday, prices rallied in consecutive buy climaxes in a test of yesterdays high (high of bull channel). The bears then formed a spike and channel bear trend, before forming a lower high and a second leg down to a mm target based on the 41 spike (also a test of yesterdays 70 start of bull channel). The majority of the day was spent in a quiet trading range and limit order market until the bear selloff in the afternoon.

Best Trades

29 high 2 buy setup, first break of yesterdays bull channel, and bopbl to the opening ttr. Also a variant of a 2EMA gap bar. Due to the poor signal bar and overlap with previous few bars, this was a swing trade. A scalper could argue buying below the 29 weak low 1, which was reasonable.

33 weak low 1 reversal attempt (bull bar, 3 strong bull bars), bopbl to previous HOD. if bought below 33 you had to wait through the 35 failed low 2. alternatively, buying above 36 (failed low 2) was also an acceptable scalp.

38 2BR / low 2 / final flag reversal after two buy climaxes to a mm target and retest of yesterdays high (which found sellers above, tail on 37). this was a good swing entry for two legs down.

73 failed high 2, breakout test of 39 entry price, and lower high major trend reversal. interestingly, it was also a test of yesterdays bull trend line after the break and test of the high. entering below 72 as 73 became an outside bear bar was an acceptable scalp.

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  #34 (permalink)
 tradingonvolume 
Rhode Island, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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I've got Al's first book in the trilogy now (to see if I like him). Holy hell, am I actually supposed to be able to read this? In the introduction alone he gives four separate, and repeated talks about trading being a zero sum game. It's very repetitive and wasteful. Is the course like that? I can't tell if he's for real.
From the course free samples I actually learned a few things.

Have you found consistency with real money since taking Al's course?

Anyway Mastercraft, another good post. Thanks for sharing.

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  #35 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014


tradingonvolume View Post
I've got Al's first book in the trilogy now (to see if I like him). Holy hell, am I actually supposed to be able to read this? In the introduction alone he gives four separate, and repeated talks about trading being a zero sum game. It's very repetitive and wasteful. Is the course like that? I can't tell if he's for real.
From the course free samples I actually learned a few things.

Have you found consistency with real money since taking Al's course?

Anyway Mastercraft, another good post. Thanks for sharing.



LOL yes Al is for real and the information is invaluable (you cannot find it anywhere else) Without him I would not be where I am today. The first section is the same in all 3 of the books so once you read through it once you likely will not need to again (although it is interesting and good information). The following chapters are what is important to learn and understand. The first time you read one of his books it may be a little difficult, but eventually you will get the hang of it and it becomes easier (and makes more sense). He has a new course coming out which is very beneficial (only part has been released), but personally I found the books more informative and helpful than the original video course.


Al's course/books provides you with an "MBA" of understanding market structure and trading. After finishing and understanding the concepts you then have to learn to apply them while discovering what type of trader you are (always in, swing trader, scalper). Then finally you can transition to becoming consistent and earning a living.


I finished my "MBA" sometime last summer, and spent the next 6 months trading 1000 lots of the EUR/USD while finding myself as a trader. After doing so I have been trading my strategy (3000 lots, scalp 2000 swing 1000 with a breakeven stop, focusing on 60% setups) for the past two months. While I have had more success than ever before and am happy, I am about breakeven since switching to this strategy, minus commissions. This is largely in part to my lack of patience and discipline, which is my main focus for now. So I am in the process of becoming consistently profitable and hope to soon transition to earning a living.

Soon I will start working on my own less descriptive / more structured college course version of Al's information. I have the curriculum created, but it will take me some time to write out and put together. If you are still interested when I am done, I will give it to you for free; (and probably others from big mikes that have followed me). You can be my guinea pig

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  #36 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

1-25-17





Yesterday ended in a sell climax where prices formed a double bottom bull flag on the 15 and 60 min charts, and a trading range. Today opened in the middle of yesterdays range, which led to a strong bear micro channel after testing the high of the range. Yesterday was a sell signal on the daily chart and the third push up in a spike and wedge pattern. This could lead to a bear trend from the open today and two legs down on HTF charts, perhaps to the daily EMA. But is not yet evident on the 5 min chart; as of now prices are still within the several day trading range.

20 prices appear to be forming a bear trend channel line (3-13-19). no sign of strong bulls, probably will not buy aggressively until prices reach bottom of the TR. AIS. bears have tgts below (mondays 33 bull BO gap, and gap open).
21 strong bull bar off suspected bear TC, but little to no BP so more likely a bear flag than reversal. second leg down likely after strong 14 bear leg. overnight gap will likely be filled. there is also a gap between 4 and 16 which is likely a gap on HTF charts.
25 outside bear bar, bears sold 24 close (first bull close above EMA). variant of a low 2 (20). ok swing short, but SSW, may get one more push up (bear trend line not far above). 10 pip failure for LO bulls who bought below 19.
26 two strong bear bars, filled overnight gap. bears sold below 21 low, suggesting strong bear trend. 26 potential MG.
27 STC bear trend, but parabolic selling. possible SCX test of bottom of range, but too early to tell. mm tgts and bear tgts still below. bears made SP selling on stop below 21, SOS.
28 weak bull attempt to form buy signal for SCX. low 1 short setup in a strong bear trend. but prob better to wait since potential SCX and second leg down.
29 tail, end of STC bear, PB likely soon.
30 2BR for SCX, but little to no BP on the day. still AIS but might get 2 legs up before bear resumes. bear tgts still below. poss steep bear channel.
31 outside bear bar, but weak close (tail, above 30 low), suggesting profit taking and or buying by LO bulls.
32 several sideways bars at LOY, suggesting profit taking. strong bears will wait for higher prices to sell, bulls may start buying below lows.
33 strong bull bar, LO bulls made SP buying below 30. prob TR soon, but suspected bear TL just above. bears want to keep 26 gap open and become MG.
34 2/3 relatively strong bull bars, building BP. but poss buy exhaustion test of bear TL / EMA.
35 bulls filled 26 gap, sligthly broke bear TL, SOS. could lead to reversal / 2 legs up after retest of low. poss broader bear channel (16-25 highs).
37 high 1 at top of bear flag, prob SA.
39 failed low 2, outside bull bar. SOS of bulls, weakness of bears. but still may become broader bear channel and wedge bear flag.
40 failed failure (failed low 2 failed), wedge bear flag at EMA, first two legged pullback of bear trend.
41 bad entry bar for bears, next bar is important.
42 bull BO of bear flag. prices in small bull channel. prob forming a trading range.
43 bad FT for bull BO. prob forming top of TR. 42 might be buy exhaustion to top of TR. but LO bears have not made a SP since SCX.
44 larger low 2 / low 4, EMA gap bar at top of suspected TR. ok swing short for test of low, but LO bears have been trapped out / prices still in small bull channel, so SSW.
47 bears filled 42 gap, but could not close below EMA or reach SP from selling 42 close. however did break bull trend line. bears will likely sell soon for retest of low. unlikely bulls will make SP buying above 42 on a stop, more likely to be met by aggressive bears.
48 let 42 BTC bulls out BE. weak high 2 at top of TR.
49 sell setup for failed high 2 at top of TR.
51 bulls attempting to form double bottom bull flag (42) and second leg up. but flat EMA and closed below. ok swing buy, but prob TR.
53 failed high 2 / high 3, bopbs at top of TR. but entering on a stop in middle of range and LOM, so better to swing for new low.
55 building BP, LOM. poss bull channel but bulls need BO above TR highs and FT.
56 bull BO, 2 strong bull bars, potential MG but might become EG.
57 sell setup for ET (43,47,49,51,57) and failed BO above TR. but 2 bull bars stronger than 57 so better to wait for second entry. might instead become BOPBL, however buying high in bull channel, BTW to pullback to TL.
58 high 1 bopbl, but into bull TC.
59 second entry for 57 ET. but bull signal bar, ok swing short. prob will result in bull flag PB to TL.
64 first break below bull trend line, back into middle of TR. 50/50%. rally since SCX may become large wedge bear flag.
65 outside bull bar, double bottom pullback long setup. ok swing buy, but SSW. bears need strong break below 51 low with FT.
67 2 strong bear bars, 2 legged retest of low with relatively strong selling and little buying pressure. bulls prob waiting for new low or test of bottom of days range.


Today was another trading range day and was contained by the range of this week. After two strong legs and a sell climax, prices rallied in a bull channel for two legs up. After a small buy climax and ET reversal, prices sold off in two legs testing the bear low and low of the trading range. There is a chance prices break to the downside and end in a STC market (for a strong bear entry bar on the daily chart), but that is unlikely at this point.

Best Trades

25 failed high 2 / bopbs to EMA, and DTBF with 17. since it was a failed high 2, it was technically strong enough for a scalp, but it was better to swing this entry in case of a second pullback (and low 2) since the 16 low 1 did not result in a SP.

41 failed low 2 after a sell climax and reversal off the bottom of a large trading range. it was also a failed wedge bear flag, and variant of a high 2 (37 high 1).

59 second entry for ET and buy climax (56). Also a failed BO above a trading range. since the signal bar was a bull bar and prices were at that point still in a bull channel, it was best to swing this entry.

77 low 2 / wedge bear flag (65,73,77) after first break of the 68 tight bear MC. alternatively, could have entered below 79 BOPBS to 77 low 2 and low 3 wedge bear flag.

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  #37 (permalink)
 Comeback King 
Tampa, FL/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradingView
Trading: NQ, ES
 
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I also appreciate the level of effort you're putting into these. I have gone through different trials with my trading but I am back to trading support and resistance levels and reading price action. I had not really thought about currency pairs until you mentioned it in another member's journal. I'm in the process of looking into FX a little more at the moment. I like the micro/mini lot idea in terms of learning to trade without losing your shirt. I'm also open to exploring various markets to see if one is a good fit. I have lots of experience with the ES, and I'm getting to know the YM. It seems with the YM I'm more comfortable trading very short time frames. However, the rush to analyze quickly may not be so good yet at the same time I don't really feel comfortable trading higher timeframes given the possible risk exposure. It seems that it's possible to trade higher timeframes with FX while using mini or micro lots that would limit risk. I have been looking at SR levels on several pairs and using a 10-minute timeframe for conducting trend analysis and trading locations. An example of a trade I took (sim) today on the GBP/USD had a risk of 126 pips. This is something I would not consider on a full sized lot but on a mini or even better a micro it would not bother me.

I'm checking out options for brokers at this point to at least try out a demo account. I surely would not have considered this option had you not mentioned it in another thread. So, I just want to say thanks for that and thanks for your analysis here.

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  #38 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014


Comeback King View Post
I also appreciate the level of effort you're putting into these. I have gone through different trials with my trading but I am back to trading support and resistance levels and reading price action. I had not really thought about currency pairs until you mentioned it in another member's journal. I'm in the process of looking into FX a little more at the moment. I like the micro/mini lot idea in terms of learning to trade without losing your shirt. I'm also open to exploring various markets to see if one is a good fit. I have lots of experience with the ES, and I'm getting to know the YM. It seems with the YM I'm more comfortable trading very short time frames. However, the rush to analyze quickly may not be so good yet at the same time I don't really feel comfortable trading higher timeframes given the possible risk exposure. It seems that it's possible to trade higher timeframes with FX while using mini or micro lots that would limit risk. I have been looking at SR levels on several pairs and using a 10-minute timeframe for conducting trend analysis and trading locations. An example of a trade I took (sim) today on the GBP/USD had a risk of 126 pips. This is something I would not consider on a full sized lot but on a mini or even better a micro it would not bother me.

I'm checking out options for brokers at this point to at least try out a demo account. I surely would not have considered this option had you not mentioned it in another thread. So, I just want to say thanks for that and thanks for your analysis here.


Glad to hear you enjoy the posts. I started in the ES, and traded it for about two years (off and on sim mode), while I was still working for Land O' Lakes. However once I quit to trade full time, I could not handle the dollar amounts at risk. I too looked for other markets to trade for a while (other futures), but never had any luck, and ended up in forex. I did recently talk to another trade who mentioned I think it was NQ had just reduced the tick size to $5 / tick. I can double check that to make sure if you are interested.

I would recommend FXCM for a broker, they are pretty much the only broker you can use if you want to trade forex. All others have unrealistic commission structures which will kill you if you want to day trade. They also provide a free trading platform for your computer or phone. I personally use NT, but have used it on my phone and it works fine. Commissions are $0.08 / 1000 lots per round turn (1000 lots is $0.10 a pip).

It takes a little while to get used to forex coming from the ES since forex is a limit order market. (I believe due to the markets being unregulated). But once you have a month or two experience it is just like any other market if you read price action. If you are trading during the US open I would recommend the EUR/USD versus the other pairs.

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  #39 (permalink)
 Comeback King 
Tampa, FL/USA
 
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Thanks. I use Tradingview for charts and I noticed that with FXCM I can trade through Tradingview. Since I trade from work I'm limited to web trading as I cannot download software onto my PC.

I signed up for a demo account and the trading panel through Tradingview is pretty good.

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 tradingonvolume 
Rhode Island, USA
 
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mastercraft29 View Post
Soon I will start working on my own less descriptive / more structured college course version of Al's information. I have the curriculum created, but it will take me some time to write out and put together. If you are still interested when I am done, I will give it to you for free; (and probably others from big mikes that have followed me). You can be my guinea pig

Cool, thanks man.

And thanks for being honest. Most people will claim to be super profitable and say they're trading with large size when they're on these forums. Obviously you've been humbled by the market. Good job getting to where you are. I'm always much more interested in following someone when I know they're telling the truth.

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