EURUSD 5min daily analysis - futures io
futures io



EURUSD 5min daily analysis


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one mastercraft29 with 138 posts (154 thanks)
    2. looks_two tradingonvolume with 12 posts (7 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Stillgreen with 9 posts (1 thanks)
    4. looks_4 rodrigcn with 9 posts (3 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one mastercraft29 with 1.1 thanks per post
    2. looks_two DjRonin with 1 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Comeback King with 0.8 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 tradingonvolume with 0.6 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 22,559 views
    2. thumb_up 176 thanks given
    3. group 28 followers
    1. forum 197 posts
    2. attach_file 92 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 150,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

EURUSD 5min daily analysis

(login for full post details)
  #21 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

1-18-17




The daily chart is in a bull channel, and yesterday reversed down from the bull trend channel line on the 60 min chart. This is an area where strong bulls will exit (sell) to take profits, and strong bears will sell to initiate new shorts. Today opened with a gap down and test below yesterdays low in a small bear channel. The bear leg has been relatively strong and could become a bear trend from the open. Less likely, today will become a strong bull trend day and break strongly above yesterdays high. Most likely prices will remain range bound.

19 outside bull bar, first bull scalp of the day buying below 15. bears so far today have been strong, but prob trading range soon. slight break of bear TL, poss small ET bottom (15,17,19).
20 weak low 1 at bottom of developing TR and after decent reversal (20), within magnetic field of EMA. prob buyers below.
22 bopb high 2 long at bottom of TR. ok swing buy but scalp is questionable (buying into EMA, high of possible bear flag). scalp entry was below 20.
25 bears trying to form bear trend line. low 2 short but into support. ok swing short, SSW.
28 bull BO, failed low 2, bears gave up for now. prices in small bull channel, prob will test near open and form trading range. bears trend still possible but becoming less likely.
29 bull FT bar; not all that strong, but sign of strength since bears failed to form wedge bear flag signal. small bull gap (28). bears should not sell for atleast two legs (even if small) up after 28 outside bull bar and failed low 2. middle of yesterdays TTR is also a magnet (704 area).
30 almost reached first bull target (top of 12 SCX) next tgt is mm up if bulls continue buying. bears still trying to form broader bear channel.
31 bull BO, bears gave up on bear flag /channel premise. 30 mm up min target (new HOD). might reach mm up based on 12 SCX
32 parabolic buying, poss buy vacuum test of top of TR. prob buyers below (first reversal down after flip to AIL), but buying high in probable TR so risky. BTW for poss short setup.
34 high 1 bopbl setup, but into highs and not clearly a bull trend (TR more likely), bears may start to sell above. bulls and bears will sell below a low 2.
36 low 2 at top of TR, but very little selling pressure and bears have not made a scalp since 19. BTW before selling, but bulls prob exit longs below to take profits. prices still in tight bull channel. mm tgts from 31 and 12 still above.
39 low 2 / 3 top of range, failed bull BO at HOD. building selling pressure, but still within bull channel so need to wait for break of it before shorting. limit order bears still unable to reach scalpers profit.
40 outside bull bar signal for a failed low 2. but buying high and mm target just above.
41 failed failure (failed low 2 failed), became a low 4 sell setup. two legs up since 28, and 2 small legs since first break of tighter bull micro channel (37). ok swing short but SSW until limit order bears make a scalp / break bull trend line.
42 weak high 1 after several other high 1s, overlap of past 5 or so bars. weak stop entry, lim order bears prob sell above / scaling in.
43 nested wedge top (39,41,43), reached 12 / 31 mm target. building SP, bulls cant get 2 CC bull bars. Lim order bears sold above 42 but need test of EMA to scalp out. still no break of bull trend line so low % stop entry shorts until then.
45 tested middle of yesterdays TTR, bulls made scalpers profit buying new high (sign of strength). but bull trend channel overshoot, parabolic buying since 37. 45 more likely EG / BCX than MG.
46 sell signal for BCX and failed bull TC overshoot, spike (35) and bull channel with 3 pushes up. ok swing short. SSW. lim order bears still have not made a scalp.
48 outside bear bar, but weak close, overlap. lim order bears did not quite reach scalpers profit, but should soon. bulls want to fill overnight gap and test HOY, bears want reversal back into TR and test of 37 entry price / start of bull channel after scaling in.
49 bear BO bull TL and EMA. first close below EMA in 20 bars, bulls prob will buy for test up.
50 bulls bought 49 close. high 2 bopbl buy setup after first break of bull TL and test of EMA. but after BCX so might not reach scalpers profit before reversing.
52 bears attempt to form failed high 2.
58 high 2 (48 restarted count), EMA gap bar, two legs down from 46, and DBBF with 37.
59 bulls trying to form broad bull channel trend line and second leg up. bears want to fill 28 gap. back into middle of TR, 50/50%.
60 large high 2, bull trend line held so far. ok swing buy but still in small bear MC, SSW for BOPB.
61 II (bodies) bear setup, but shorting into low of bear leg.
62 bulls bought 61 weak low 1. but have not made scalp in 10 or more bars. however the bull trend line has held so far.
63 weak low 2, slight break of bear MC but weak and weak close.


Today was another trading range day as expected. After a small pullback bull micro channel (also a spike and channel bull trend) prices formed a bull trend channel overshoot and buy climax. Prices then reversed into a small bear channel for two legs down to the bottom of the mornings trading range.

Best Trades

20 weak low 1 after a decent reversal (19), and at bottom of developing trading range. acceptable scalp but had to wait through a few bars for the failed low 2.

28 failed low 2, outside bull bar. % was probably high enough to exit at a scalp (tail on 32 suggests profit taking at 1x), but since buying into EMA and possibly into high of a bear flag it was best to swing.

46 nested wedge top, spike and channel bull trend (three pushes up), failed bull trend channel overshoot, and buy climax. best to enter for 2 legs down (swing trade)

47 weak high 1 after a buy climax. acceptable scalp, but turned into great swing trade.

69 low 2 / lower high MTR / BOPBS to top of trading range. If this setup was not at the high of the previous trading range it would be a swing trade (LHMTR, doji signal bar). but because of the resistance and upper trading range, it was an acceptable scalp.

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
NT8 - Footprint Chart adding on code
NinjaTrader
Learning Day Trading, need some advice on approach advice
Traders Hideout
 
 
(login for full post details)
  #22 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

1-19-17




Yesterday ended in a sell climax and bear trend channel overshoot. Today open with a bull gap around the most recent bear lower high and middle of yesterdays trading range, but entered a TTR. The bull gap could be the first of two legs up from the sell climax. However prices may first test yesterdays low before forming the second leg up (gap open today was first break of yesterdays bear trend line).

14 failed bull BO of ttr, low 2 (or 3), EMA gap bar. ok swing short, SSW.
16 bull signal for BOPBL, bull breakout and failed reversal about the same in strength, middle of yesterdays range. 50/50%. bulls want test of yesterdays 69 start of bear channel / bear BO gap.
17 failed bull bopbl, second EMA gap bar, low 2, trapped bulls, second entry for ET (1,3,5,10,14). bears trying to form broader bear channel (copied from trend channel).
19 huge bear breakout bar, test of LOY. climactic. poss MTR soon.
20 bear BO with FT. but bear TC overshoot. strong bulls may be stepping aside for test of trend line on 60 min chart I have been talking about this week.
21 reversal signal for failed bear BO of TC, but weak (doji). prob sellers above scaling in higher. mm below based on 19 BO.
22 broke bear MC, strong bull entry bar, weak low 1.
23 bears scaled in for test of 20 close. stronger low 1, but large bar so increased risk. bears will try to form a bear channel, bulls want a MTR. after 2 CC SCX (yesterdays close, todays 20), MTR for 2 legs up probably more likely, but need more information.
26 20 STC bears SI and made original SP. SOS of bears. but second (and third counting yesterday) SCX.
27 STC market. bears made SP selling below 21. strong bulls prob waiting for test of bull TL.
28 strong TBR at mm tgt from 19. prices still in tight bear mc, low % buying until break of it. 28 prob due to profit taking and not bulls buying. lim order bulls have not made a SP yet. still mm below based on 26 small gap.
30 strong bull FT bar, but bear channel not yet ruled out. MP of bull TL still below.
32 reversed off bear TL copied from 21-26 lows. BOT of 23 entry price.
34 weak high 1 at top of bear flag. prob sellers above, but might test closer to EMA first.
35 outside bear bar, turned 34 into a low 2, trapped bulls who thought they were buying a higher low.
37 unlikely to become bull reversal (higher low, no break of bear TL). more likely start of second leg pullback to EMA / bear TL and larger low 2.
38 low 1 bopbs,trapped bulls. but within MF of EMA / TL (32 was closer to EMA). ok swing short but SSW unless using a swing stop and scaling in (10 pip stop above 38 too tight and likely to be hit).
40 weak buy stop entry. prob sellers above and bull trap. but bears will prob wait for test of EMA to short aggressively (32 came within 2 pips, EMA sequence).
42 failed high 2 / low 2 short off bear TL and EMA. first touch of EMA in 20 bars.
43 bulls attempt at a failed low 2/ DBBF with 39. but still within bear trend channel. increase in BP since 20, but still no strong buying pressure or reversal.
44 failed failure (wedge bear flag) and triangle at EMA and bear trend line.
46 bull BO of bear flag (pain trade), but bulls will need strong follow through. first break of bear trend line and first close above EMA.
47 failed bull BO, low 4 sell setup and larger low 2. also DTBF with 32. could also be seen as wedge bear flag (38,42,47). trading range forming.
48 bears took profits at a new low, bulls bought new low for scalp (tail), big reversal bar but doji. prices have entered a trading range (bear flag). bulls need a strong reversal to flip to AIL. MM targets and bull trend line still below.
49 big bull BO of bear TR. but tail. bulls need strong FT again. 49 could become MG.
50 failed bull breakout above bear DT. parabolic buying, 49 prob EG. EMA gap bar short, bopbs to yesterdays low, and ET BF (42,43,47,48,50). ok swing short but not high enough % for scalp.
51 bears sold above 50 weak high 1. but 49 gap still open. SOS of bulls. no clear high of TR yet. mm up from 49 is 23 high.
53 high 2 bopbl, but lots of overlap, bulls and bears alternating control (no to consecutive bars). buying high, ok swing but not scalp. if buy should be quick to reverse if becomes final flag reversal (and a low 2).
54 weak high 2 entry bar, bull stops below. also a low 2, second EMA gap bar, and final flag reversal of a failed bull BO.
56 bulls will prob reach mm tgt (49 MG). small spike and bull channel.
62 small DBBF with 53, and wedge bull flag. but ttr at a new high and building SP since 57. prob top of developing TR.
63 small bopbs from 60 low 2. bulls prob give up soon on bull flag premise.
66 bulls are trying to form a bull channel and second leg up. but would be extreme higher low, so unlikely. more likely top of trading range (bear flag).
67 bear BO, bull give up bar. strong bear bar (shaved top and bottom). will prob test below 49 which is middle of trading range and magnet.
69 poor bear FT. bulls were able to keep 49 gap open. SOW of bears.
73 TBR, low 2 short at top of TR (bear flag).
74 bulls are trying to form a bull channel. LOM. small trading range. bulls might get BO after bears have failed to reverse.

Today was a very interesting day, and essentially a large trading range day (or a trending trading range day). After a strong bear breakout and two legs down (also a type of spike and climax bear trend), the market reversed up from a slight new low and variant of a wedge bottom. Prices then entered a small trading range where the bears and bulls fought for control.

Best Trades

17 low 2, failed bull BO of TTR, and ET. Acceptable scalp but turned into a great swing trade and HOD (unusual for HOD to have such a high % entry).

34 low 2, weak high 1 at top of bear flag, bopbs. Could have sold above 33 or below as 34 became an outside down bar. Selling above was somewhat riskier without using a swing stop or willing to scale in since so close to the EMA and could have easily tested it and formed a low 2.

47 wedge bear flag test of EMA, 46 first close above EMA which is usually sold, and a failed failure (bull breakout of bear flag failed). This entry was very interesing, prices went past my target and did not fill me until prices reached a new low below 37 (which was fine with me!)

57 (or 60 second entry) final flag reversal, failed high 2, DTBF with 23, and failed BO high of small trading range. Had to wait through a few bars and pullbacks before reaching scalpers target.

*Notice all of the entries today were shorts. This was due to the strong selling early on and lack of a strong reversal or buying pressure untiil later in the day. There were a few profitable buy entries, but they were risky since buying into high of bear flags / EMA, or trading ranges.



SI scale in
SP scalpers profit
SOS sign of strength
SOW sign of weakness
TBR two bar reversal
MP magnetic pull
BOT breakout test

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #23 (permalink)
 tradingonvolume 
Rhode Island, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Multicharts
Trading: Any Instrument
 
Posts: 48 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 69 given, 73 received


I'm really enjoying the thread. I'm sure it takes a long time to put together. I trade the euro too and was thinking about starting to learn Brooks to improve.
I just wanted to say thanks for the posts. It's good to know the ES isn't our only option for price action trading like Mack. I hate ES.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #24 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014


tradingonvolume View Post
I'm really enjoying the thread. I'm sure it takes a long time to put together. I trade the euro too and was thinking about starting to learn Brooks to improve.
I just wanted to say thanks for the posts. It's good to know the ES isn't our only option for price action trading like Mack. I hate ES.


tradingonvolume - glad to hear it. price action works on every time frame and every chart in every market, so yes there are alternatives to the ES. funny you mentioned Mack, i started trading with his method. but the negative traders equation was too hard to overcome. i too struggled with trading the ES because i couldnt handle the large dollar amounts required to trade it, so switched to forex and like it better. forex allows you to truly trade the i dont care size which is needed to be objective. however losing any money, even $1.00 does still hurt your ego

I highly recommend Al brooks' course, i would not be where i am today without it. but remember, it is up to you to put in the hard work and dedication to understand and apply it (not you personally but everyone). i know it is a lot of material and can be confusing in the begging, but keep at it and you will begin to understand it (a lot of people complain it is too difficult to read). One day i plan on creating a "college course" type of Al's course that is not so in depth and easier to understand, but i have to focus on becoming a professional myself first.

Good luck!

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #25 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

1-20-17




After filling the outside down bar gap on the daily chart, prices have entered a large trading range. However prices are still in a bull channel. Today is friday so weekly support and resistance is important. The weekly chart has 5 consecutive bull bars after reversing from a failed breakout of the 2 year trading range, and have formed trending bull closes. The bulls want the week to close as high near its high for a strong bull trend bar, but that is unlikely as it is far away (0719), but possible with todays inauguration of our new president. The bulls want the week to close atleast above last weeks close (0640) for another trending close. The bears want the week to close on its low, which is also near the bull trend line (0579). Again it is far away so unlikely to be reached, but still possible with the news announcement. Most likely the week will close around todays open which is the middle of the trading range and last weeks close.

18 today opened the middle of yesterdays trading range and was the first break of yesterdays bull channel, 13 was second leg down (gap open first). currently AIL. The bears want a test of the start of yesterdays bull channel and to fill the 49 bull gap, but a retest of the high is likely first.
19 strong bull rally, tight bull MC. prob mm up based on spike and test of yesterdays high / top of TR. bulls buying any small pullback, ATM and for any reason. very little selling pressure above 8 HOD (so far).
21 first pullback bar, ML due to PT. first break below bull MC, bopb to EMA. prob buyers above for high 1 buy.
22 high 1 buy setup. mm target from 20 spike is near HOY.
23 weak low 2 sell signal, low % sell. prob buyers below. gap open should be filled, within MF.
24 strong bull bar (shaved top and bottom), bulls will BTC but will use large stop. 23 potential MG. 22 high 1 high % of scalp tgt being reached before stop below 22. tgt also fills gap. strong bears prob stepping aside, waiting for test of high of range.
25 small inside bear bar, another weak short setup. into bull MC TL. prob buyers below. bulls who bought above 8 came within 1 pip of reaching scalpers tgt. likely will be reached. sign of strong bulls. poss start of strong bull trend but need BO above yesterdays range first.
26 failed low 2, failed bear BO of bull MC. trapped weak bears. should provide fuel for SP.
27 another low 2 sell setup; small bull flag ttr and shorting into low with a stop. limit order bears have not made a scalp yet so very low % stop entry. so far test of yesterdays bull channel high is very strong. not good for bears looking for a MTR (little SP, little overlap, strong bull rally). small bull channel appears to be forming.
28 high 2 buy setup.
31 outside bear bar off tight bull TC. poss first LO bear scalp selling above 30. but still within bull TL. mm tgt above based on 23 MG. prob get 1 more push up in spike and bull channel.
32 2 strong bear bars, first close below bull TL. LO bears need 1 more pip lower to scalp out. bulls will prob buy close or EMA.
33 3 CC bear bars, building selling pressure. LO bears reached SP, sign of transition to TR soon. potential wedge top soon with 1 more push up (25,32). yesterdays 98 close still a magnet. did not hit 28 high 2 stop (missed by 1 tick).
34 bull BO bar of bull flag. weak low 1 into bottom of BF, prob buyers below for BOPB.
36 high 2 pullback to EMA. also a weak low 1 into bottom of BF, prob buyers below and above. prob bottom of forming TR. 29 close is a target (BTC bulls scale in for retest).
38 reached 23 mm target. strongest 2 bars of bull trend. prob BCX and 2 legs sideways to down soon, strong bulls and bears will STC (bulls to take windfall profits, bears to initiate shorts). less likely, 38 becomes MG and the rally continues.
40 sell signal for the buy climax and 2 legs down. but relatively weak. ok swing short but SSW. could become spike and climax bull trend (mm up based on 29 spike, 29 tight channel prob spike on HTF charts). but need more information.
41 stronger sell setup, should be good swing short.
44 bear BO 5 CC bear bars. AIS. first bear target is below 37 (bottom of BCX).
46 high 1 (or 2 if counting 41) after a buy climax and reversal. prob sellers above, but might test 39 close first.
49 weak reversal (doji), but potential LHMTR. it prices break above 41 they could make a mm up (failed wedge reversal).
51 strong bear entry and FT bars. reversal to strong bear trend unlikely, bears should get second leg down, but will prob form TR with bottom of 37 BCX, maybe get all the way to 21 start of bull channel.
53 big outside bull bar, bulls came in aggressively at new low (below 45). SOS of bulls / SOW of bears. further evidence of a TR being more likely than bear trend. LOM, prob will remain range bound until inauguration at 1:45.

Today looks like it will probably become a large trading range day, but prices have grown increasingly volatile since noon, and with the inauguration there is no telling what may happen. The key price action of today was the spike and channel bull trend, which was very strong and evolved into a trading range / broader bull channel.

Best trades
21 weak low 1 reversal after flipping to AIL and strong bull rally. also a failed MC breakout. could have also bought above the 22 high 1 that followed as expected. both acceptable scalps but turned into good swing trades.

28 high 2 / failed low 2. it was probably best to swing this entry since going long into highs, but it was realistically strong enough for a scalp since it was such a strong bull trend (and for test / close of gap). but would probably be smart to exit with a small profit if prices reversed down strongly (final flag). however the stop was never hit.

36 high 2 pullback to EMA, also a bopbl to the small 28 ttr bull flag. best to swing the entry on a stop above 36, but buying below 35 was an acceptable scalp (see above as to why).

41 swing short for buy climax and variant of a wedge top. did not turn into great swing profit, but did lead to two legs down (the bulls came back in very aggressively after the two legs down). a scalper could argue selling above 40 for a scalp down (weak high 1 after a buy climax), but at that point it was probably better to wait.

ATM at the market
ML most likely
PT profit taking



Just in case there are nay sayers out there who do not believe I am doing this real time, I decided to show my trades today. I dont usually because I do not feel it helps anyone else by showing them, and learning to analyze the price action is what is important; not my trades. But today was a good day, and proof that patience and discipline pays off. I hope this is motivating to anyone out there looking to become a price action trader.

Please ask questions about my analysis; I feel it helps me put my thoughts and logic into words, and ultimately become a better trader. I enjoy doing this and am doing it for free. Take the free advice while you can, as there are not many others offering it. Do not be scared to challenge me either; I am comfortable with constructive criticism and enjoy a challenge. (As should you if you want to be a trader since this is the most difficult endeavor of your life).

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #26 (permalink)
 tradingonvolume 
Rhode Island, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Multicharts
Trading: Any Instrument
 
Posts: 48 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 69 given, 73 received


mastercraft29 View Post
funny you mentioned Mack, i started trading with his method. but the negative traders equation was too hard to overcome. i too struggled with trading the ES because i couldnt handle the large dollar amounts required to trade it, so switched to forex and like it better.

I'm in the exact same boat. What do you mean by negative traders equation? Poor risk to reward?


Quoting 
I highly recommend Al brooks' course, i would not be where i am today without it. but remember, it is up to you to put in the hard work and dedication to understand and apply it (not you personally but everyone).

Do I really need the course if you keep posting here? ;-)

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #27 (permalink)
svedan
Munich
 
 
Posts: 19 since Jan 2017
Thanks: 32 given, 3 received

Hi mastercraft,

thanks for your comprehensive Analysis. As a absolute beginner who wants to start trading, this is very helpful to me, even if i do not understand everything.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #28 (permalink)
 Stillgreen 
Oregon
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES
 
Stillgreen's Avatar
 
Posts: 191 since May 2014
Thanks: 342 given, 247 received

@mastercraft29, when you scalp do you enter with 2 positions, take half off at 10 pips and let some run for longer ? How about your swing trades -- do you have a fixed first target ?
I'm enjoying your analysis -- thank you.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #29 (permalink)
 Stillgreen 
Oregon
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES
 
Stillgreen's Avatar
 
Posts: 191 since May 2014
Thanks: 342 given, 247 received

@mastercraft29, another question : Since you're trading forex, how do handle stop entries above or below bars : if the bar is exceeded by only a pipette do you consider that a valid signal to enter ( eg on a H2), or do you wait for a full pip or half a pip ?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #30 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014



tradingonvolume View Post
I'm in the exact same boat. What do you mean by negative traders equation? Poor risk to reward?



Do I really need the course if you keep posting here? ;-)




LOL - honestly, i dont think you will understand what I am talking about without taking Al's course. However I will start working on my own easier to understand "college course" soon. With that being said, I still think you will be able to pick up on some things from my analysis, but I wouldnt expect it all to make sense without first understanding the market and price action from Al's course / books.

The traders equation is the most important aspect of trading. The market is based on mathematics. The traders equation is below. Macks system may work for him but will not for most beginners. The unrealistic high winning % required (min of 70%) to break even is extremely difficult even for a seasoned trader. A beginner (or any trader) should focus on only entering a trade that has a high probability of reached a reward EQUAL to his risk (2 point profit target with a 2 point risk and 60% prob in ES, or 10 pip tgt, 10 pip stop 60% prob in forex). See below for examples

Traders Equation
(Reward X probability of success) must be greater than (Risk X probability of loss)

Acceptable Scalp (60% probability required and target equal to risk)

Reward (10 pips) X 0.60 > Risk (10 pips) X 0.40
So 6 is bigger than 4, making this a mathematically sound strategy; and after 10 trades with this equation a trader would win 60 pips and lose 40 for a profit of 20.

Swing trade (40-50% probability, target must be atleast 2X risk)

Reward (atleast 2X risk so 20 pips) X 0.40 (or 0.50) > Risk (10 pips) X 0.60 (or 0.50)
So 8 (or 10) is bigger than 6 (or 5) and after 10 trades you would have a reward of 80 pips and a loss of 60 for a profit of 20. Or a reward of 100 pips and a loss of 50 for a total of 50 with a 50% probability.

The "fun" (hard) part is determining probability of any given trade. If there are more questions on the traders equation or determining probability maybe I will come up with a basic guide to understanding them.

Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > EURUSD 5min daily analysis


Last Updated on May 31, 2022


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
     



Copyright © 2022 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts