EURUSD 5min daily analysis - futures io
futures io



EURUSD 5min daily analysis


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one mastercraft29 with 138 posts (154 thanks)
    2. looks_two tradingonvolume with 12 posts (7 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Stillgreen with 9 posts (1 thanks)
    4. looks_4 rodrigcn with 9 posts (3 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one mastercraft29 with 1.1 thanks per post
    2. looks_two DjRonin with 1 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Comeback King with 0.8 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 tradingonvolume with 0.6 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 22,559 views
    2. thumb_up 176 thanks given
    3. group 28 followers
    1. forum 197 posts
    2. attach_file 92 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 150,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

EURUSD 5min daily analysis

(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

1-11-17




There was a strong sell off overnight on the 60 min chart, reaching the expanding triangle target of a new low and a second leg down from the test of the bull high and top of trading range. This led to a big gap down and attempt at a bear trend from the open. The bears are currently trying to form a bear channel, but the bulls came in aggressively after a second leg down and after filling the bull breakout gap from 1/5.

17 technically low 2 (15 low 1) off bear trend line, but 3 strong bull bars and 15 outside bull bar probably restarted count. also within magnetic pull of EMA, but ok swing short. better to wait if scalping.
20 bulls defended stop below 16, but weak reversal setup at top of bear channel. probably sellers above / at EMA for new low. bulls have been able to make scalps buying new lows so not a strong bear trend.
22 low 2 off bear trend line. 2 legs up from new low. but within magnetic pull of EMA. also a weak high 1 at top of bear flag so probably sellers above.
23 bull close above EMA / bear trend line, and above 17 high. not good for bear case. bears will not want next bar to close as bull bar.
24 low 2 off EMA after first close above bear trend line and first bull break above a lower high. also a double top bear flag with 8/11. could also be views as second entry short at top of trading range.
26 stronger sell setup, low 2 /3 at EMA after break of bear trend line, and or top of trading range.
27 bulls attempt at a failed low 2, but several sideways bars, buying into high of trading range and EMA.
29 bear breakout, new low likely. mm targets below based on 3 spike or 9-27 trading range. potential wedge bottom / mtr soon.
30 potential measuring gap, but more likely exhaustion. however bulls did not buy new low (yet), may give up.
31 reversal bar at mm target and (slight) bear trend channel overshoot. but 3 strong bear bars so low % buy, better to wait for second entry.
32 low 1 with trapped bulls, but into bear trend line and after a potential sell climax and new low on a mostly sideways day. 31 may become 1 bar final flag.
33 second entry for wedge bottom / mtr. 10 pip failure for bears who sold above 31. ok swing buy.
37 second sell climax, reached mm target from 30 gap. parabolic selling. might reach mm target based on 35 gap which is near mm target for failed wedge bottom (34).
38 weak bull attempt at 2 bar reversal for sell climax. still within bear micro channel. better to wait for bopb from mc or stronger reversal setup.
40 second / third sell climax. reached mm targets. prob end of bear trend soon.
43 two bar reversal at 35 mm tgt. but still bear micro channel and strong selling, better to wait for bopb or second entry.
47 first touch of EMA in 20 bars, and first break of micro bear. Prob sellers for scalp down, but second leg up from a higher low / two legs up from a new low likely after 47 strong bull spike and extreme sell climax.
49 reversed closes of past 6 bull bars, but bulls defended 44 entry bar stop, sign of strength.
50 bulls attempt to form HLMTR, but only a high 1. could be considered a high 2 (43 first entry), and a bopbl from breakout of bear micro channel. ok swing, but % too low for a scalp.
52 two bar reversal, variant of a high 2 (49), two legs down to test bear low. but weak stop entry (overlap of past 4 bars), and might get one more push down for wedge retest. probably trading range soon.
53 bulls made scalp buying below 50, more evidence of trading range soon. bull close above EMA, strong bull trend bar.
54 strong bull close, reversed strong sell off. AIL. mm up fills overnight bear gap.
55 weak reversal setup, probably buyers below.
57 55 probably measuring gap, target is close to overnight gap.
61 strong sell off below EMA reversing bull spike. came up short of bull mm target. extremely volatile. possible pullback and start of bull channel. second leg up more likley than second leg down, but also potential expanding triangle bottom (13,25,43,58). best to wait for more information.


Today was a large bull reversal day, and one of the largest daily ranges (not including overnight) I recal seeing in a while (150 pips!) After a failed wedge bottom, and mm down in consecutive sell climaxes, the bulls came in aggressively and formed a spike and climax (type of spike and channel) bull trend. The bull micro channel (67 on) was so strong, prices did not even pullback below a bar until after a mm up based on the 58 bull spike was reached. This is probably the beginning of a second leg up after the micro wedge and wedge bottom on the daily chart, and will likely lead to more buying over the next few days.


Best Trades

26 low 2 at top of trading range and EMA / after first break of bear trend line. Selling above 22 weak high 1, below 24 low 2 or 26 low 2 (or 3) were all strong enough for a scalp down, but turned into good swings.

34 failed bull reversal at a new low and failed wedge bottom. The bears were so aggressive they sold the close of 33, forming a low 2. Since it was into the low of a sideways day at that point, the math only favored a swing trade.

52 two bar reversal, variant of a high 2, higher low major trend reversal. good swing trade but not strong enough for a scalp.

56 weak reversal attempt after a sell climax, mtr, and 5 bull bars flipping to AIL. low % swing short so therefore a high % buy scalp, but also netted a good swing profit.

63 high 1 (nested high 2, 62 went up, 63 pulled back down and reversed up again making a high 2 on a lower time frame chart), breakout pullback to last bear lower high (47) and EMA. Although a second leg up was more likely than a second leg down, it was best to swing this entry rather than scalp, unless using a swing stop below 52; then it would be acceptable to exit at 1X risk (scalpers proft) which is likely what led to the 65 tail and pullback.

67 high 1 / failed low 2 (58 65 double top). also a bopbl to open of the day and a variant of a high 2 (65 high 1). This was an acceptable scalp but because of the large bars a reward equal to risk (23 pips) was needed which is likely what led to the 71 tail and 72 inside bar (proft taking, not bears shorting).

Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
NT8 - Footprint Chart adding on code
NinjaTrader
 
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: ES, CL, GC, ZB, YM, NQ
 
Dabears2322's Avatar
 
Posts: 131 since Jan 2017
Thanks: 63 given, 125 received


mastercraft29 View Post
Hey B - appreciate the positive feedback, I am glad to hear it is helping you and I hope others as well.

I am writing these real time as I observe and analyze the market while I am waiting / trading. As you can see, I am not always right and try to be quick to change my mind frame (objective as possible), as the price action unfolds.

Before I start trading I analyze the 60 min chart that includes the overnight price action, which is where my first paragraph / opening statement is generally from. On fridays and days that the month ends on I will also look at the weekly and monthly chart for obvious support / resistance targets. However I try not to focus on these too much since it can and will skew your opinion and you should focus on only one chart and one time frame.

I can understand what you mean about being overwhelmed, trading is very hard and it takes a long time to understand the markets and how to trade them (math behind trading). It is extremely important to focus on context and not just candlestick patterns. The context is what makes a setup, not just the pattern as many websites / trading gurus lead people to believe. Also, I think it may be pretty difficult to teach yourself price action as there are a lot of nuances / little things to learn that help with the big picture, and most importantly understanding the math behind trading. I'm not saying you cant do it on your own or trying to discourage you, but I think you would be better off to learn from someone like Al Brooks (where I learned). If you haven't already I would highly recommend reading his books, or taking his course.

I hope this clarifies some things, and please feel free to ask more questions.

Thanks, Josh


Thanks for the quick reply, Josh. All of that makes sense and I will look into those books.

I just have a question on some of the terminology you use in your posts: low 1, 2, 3 - High 1, 2, 3 - mm target - AIL - HLMTR - mtr - bopbl

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014


Here is a quick list of the abbreviations I use off the top of my head.

MM measured move
AIL always in long
AIS always in short
LOM limit order market
HLMTR higher low major trend reversal (LL lower low, LH lower high, HH higher high)
BOPB breakout pullback (BOPBL long, BOPBS short)
FF final flag
HTF higher time frame
LTF lower time frame
TR trading range
TL trend line
TC trend channel
BCX buy climax
SCX sell climax
BO breakout
FBO failed breakout
MG measuring gap
BG breakout gap
EG exhaustion gap
LOD / HOD low of day, high of day
MC micro channel
STC / BTC sell the close, buy the close
CC consecutive
IR initial risk
AR actual risk

Prob buyers below = 60% probability, acceptable scalp (1 X IR)
swing trade (40-50%)= reward has to be 2x IR

High / Low 1,2,3 are attempts by the market to pullback / reverse. If there are more questions on these types of entries I will try to make an analysis of probability and distinguishing them when I have some free time.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #14 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

1-12-17




The bulls were finally able to break above the large trading range on the 60 minute chart. It is possible they get a mm up based on the height of the entire range, but it is a little excessive and far away (0825 area). However there is a potential measuring gap that formed overnight based on yesterdays bull spike and measuring gap (0735 area), which coincides with a bear gap (outside down bar) on the daily chart, and is more likely to be reached. Prices are currently in a tight bull channel on the 60 minute chart. Today opened with a large gap up but is currently reversing down from a small wedge top that will probably lead to two legs sideways to down, but at this point unlikely to be the start of a bear trend and more likely a bull flag.

20 19 was first close below EMA, bulls bought close / below 1. but only a high 1 (16 outside bear bar restarted count), and 5 bar bear micro channel. ok swing buy, but low % until break of bear mc. strong bulls prob waiting for 2 legs down / test of bull trend line on HTF charts before buying again.
21 outside bear bar, still within micro channel, 19 probably measuring gap, mm target not far below. possible mm lower based on 19 bear spike which is near yesterdays high.
22 high 2 / EMA gap bar off 19 gap mm target. but still within bear mc and bulls have not made a scalpers profit in about 10 bars so still low % (maybe 50%) but ok for swing. better to wait for bopb of bear mc.
23 bulls made scalpers profit buying 19 close and scaling in. first break of bear mc. decent entry bar for 22 bulls.
25 bears attempt at a failed high 2, but selling low and bulls bought into close (tail). bears taking profits at new low (sideways since 20).
26 weak low 1/ 2 into low where bears are taking profits, weak short entry. prob buyers below. bears attempting to form small bear channel. but still possible mm below from 19 spike.
28 prices in small bear channel with 2 pushes down (22,28). bears will prob reach mm target not far below.
30 10 pip failure for bears who shorted below 26. but no sign of strong bulls yet, still AIS and small bear channel.
32 26 bears exited with scalp, bulls becoming more aggressive (outside bull bar) bought 31 weak low 1. but still within bear channel. LOM, bulls buying below lows, bears selling bull closes / trend line.
33 two consecutive bull bars, broke bear trend line but could not close above EMA and tail. one more push down could form spike and wedge bottom. bears will not want next bar to close as bull bar. prob trading range soon, bear mm still below.
35 variant of a low 2 (31), bulls unable to close above EMA. but weak stop entry in LOM, and bottom of suspected forming trading range. better to wait for buy setup than to short this low.
36 strong bull trend bar broke above bear lower highs. bears gave up. came up short of mm target.
37 bears trying to form lower high / bear channel (tail, copied from lows). but now AIL trading range more likely. 36 small gap prob measuring gap. poss mm up from 37 bull spike.
38 weak low 1, first pullback in bull spike. prob buyers below. first mm just above.
40 high 1 after a strong bull spike, but nearing highs and stop entry during LOM. prob better to wait.
41 low 2 / small final flag near top of trading range, reached first mm target. but 38 spike strong buying, weak shorting.
43 bears made scalpers profit below 41, filled 36 bull gap. sign of bull weakness. possible broad bear channel / lower high but not yet confirmed. back to middle of TR, 50/50 %.
44 4 strong bear bars, back to AIS. bear channel premise still valid. prob second leg down from small wedge top.
46 weak high 1 in 5 bar bear micro channel. prob sellers above for scalp down. 44 measuring gap is around new LOD.
48 bulls bought below 46 weak low 1, reached scalpers profit. but first break of bear micro channel. prob get 1 more push down for attempt at second leg.
49 bopb high 1, similiar to 34. but stop entry in middle of TR and a LOM so 50/50%, swing only.
51 both sides fighting for second leg. 41 lower high, 47 higher low. 50/50 %, breakout mode. bear channel premise less likely at this point since did not make new low.
53 micro double top 50,52. bears defended 41 entry price. but small bull channel since 48 spike. % may slightly favor bulls for second leg up (6 consecutive bull bars with trending closes).
56 setup for a failed high 2 and low 2. but above EMA, and still in middle of range, might become bear trap and wedge bull flag. also 5 or so overlapping bars. breakout mode.
57 bears should exit if prices tick above 57 (failed low 2, trapped weak bears who sold 56 thinking they were selling lower high in bear channel).
58 wedge bull flag, failed low 2, trapped bears.
61 failed failure (failed low 2 failed), final flag reversal / wedge bear flag.
64 first break below small bull channel.
73 bear breakout, new LOD likely before bulls will look to buy again.
75 bulls attempt at double bottom with 47. 74 spike somewhat parabolic but 6 strong bear bars in bear mc, first reversal up unlikely to succeed.
76 low 1, aggressive bears (sold 75 high), but little room to new low and trading range day so swing short only.
77 strong reversal bar from new LOD. two legs down from wedge top, parabolic selling. ok swing.

Today spent most of the day in a trading range, but was also a weak bear channel. However the channel was not evident until the afternoon.

Best Trades

32 outside bull bar after break and new low of bear micro channel. second attempt to reverse from new LOD, and strong final flag reversal. buying with a stop above 32 should be for a swing, but buying below the 30 weak low 1 was an acceptable scalp (not marked).

38 weak low 1 reversal attempt (bull bar) after strong bull spike.

41 low 2, final flag reversal, lower high and top of trading range.

46 weak low 1 at bottom of trading range

61 failed failure (failed low 2 failed), failed wedge bull flag, wedge bear flag, and final flag reversal. Also off bear trend line but bear channel was not as evident at that point. acceptable scalp but turned into good swing trade.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #15 (permalink)
 Dabears2322 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: ES, CL, GC, ZB, YM, NQ
 
Dabears2322's Avatar
 
Posts: 131 since Jan 2017
Thanks: 63 given, 125 received

Awesome list. Thanks for putting that together. Your write ups make more sense to me now. I will go research the H/L 1,2,3's on my own as I start reading up on this stuff more. Thanks for the help!

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #16 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

Here are some more abbreviations I will use going forward, but it wont let me edit the original post. sorry for inconvenience.

BOM breakout mode
BTW better to wait
SSW scalpers should wait for higher %
AS aggressive bears
AB aggressive bulls
MDB micro double bottom
MDT micro double top
H2 high 2 (1,2,3)
L2 low 2 (1,2,3)
ET expanding triangle
EGB EMA gap bar
FT follow through
NA news annoucement
OOD open of day
COY close of yesterday
LOY low of yesterday
HOY high of yesterday


MM measured move
AIL always in long
AIS always in short
LOM limit order market
HLMTR higher low major trend reversal (LL lower low, LH lower high, HH higher high)
BOPB breakout pullback (BOPBL long, BOPBS short)
FF final flag
HTF higher time frame
LTF lower time frame
TR trading range
TL trend line
TC trend channel
BCX buy climax
SCX sell climax
BO breakout
FBO failed breakout
MG measuring gap
BG breakout gap
EG exhaustion gap
LOD / HOD low of day, high of day
MC micro channel
STC / BTC sell the close, buy the close
CC consecutive
IR initial risk
AR actual risk

Prob buyers below = 60% probability, acceptable scalp (1 X IR)
swing trade (40-50%)= reward has to be 2x IR

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #17 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

1-13-17




Today is Friday so weekly support and resistance is important. The week is currently a strong bull trend entry bar for a high 2 buy setup after a failed break below the several year trading range. The bulls want the week to close on its high (0684, yesterdays high), which is not far above. The bears want the week to close weak and near the open, but that is unlikely due to how far away it is (0527). Yesterdays bear channel was a bull flag and broke below the tight bull channel on the 60 minute chart; prices are currently retesting the high. The test of the high has contained mainly bull bars, with tails and overlap, but otherwise little selling pressure, and in a tight bull micro channel. As of now the bear case for a strong MTR into a bear trend is weak and more likely to lead to a correction / bull flag.

19 big bear breakout on news announcement from small wedge top (5,11,19) after testing the high of yesterdays bear channel. similar to yesterdays open (wedge top).
20 bulls bought 19 close, weak bear follow through, FBO, still within yesterdays trading range. possible sell vacuum.
23 ii bull high 1 buy setup, 2 failed attempts by bears to fill 21 gap and failed attempt at lower high MTR. but middle of TR, 50/50%. both sides fighting for follow through.
25 high 2 buy setup of small bull flag. but stop order in LOM for past 5 bars or so, and middle of TR, so swing only. scalpers should wait for higher %. both sides fighting for channel after spike in both directions. small nested converging triangle, BOM.
26 three pushes down since 21 (22,24,26). low 2 short but into bottom of TR, stop entry in LOM. variant of a failed high 2 (23,25 probably is one on LTF chart).
27 high 2 buy signal off bottom of TR, but doji bar and increased risk (large signal bar). very similar to yesterdays PA (lower high, higher low), BOM, no clear direction.
28 bears sold 27 close, buy signal did not trigger (aggressive bears). bear BO becoming more likely unless bulls come in strong soon. poss bear channel forming
29 H2 buy, MDB 28, HL, second leg down from 19.
31 failed high 2 (10 pip failure for 29 bulls), bears sold 30 close. tight bear channel, but still within range.
34 bear BO of TR with FT. AIS, bear channel. poss mm down from 19 spike, or 33 gap poss MG.
35 loss of bear momentum (tail), idicating last STC bar. but low in bear trend at TC line. better to wait for pullback. NA next bar.
36 parabolic selling, bear TC overshoot. nearing first mm target but no sign of credible bottom yet.
37 tails bottom of bars, prob get pullback soon. 35 STC bears reached / exited at scalpers profit
39 first reversal attempt, likely to be sold and become bear flag. bulls see as wedge bottom (1,19,37). but weak premise.
42 first bull scalp in 10 bars, first touch of EMA. bopbs to bottom of range. variant of L2 (40). but bull signal bar, BTW, middle of suspected broader bear channel (TL copied from 19-37 TC)
44 first close above EMA, back above TR support, possible buy vaccuum test of bear TL, but not yet confirmed. BTW for bopb of small bull channel before shorting.
46 first break below bull mc. bear trend line so far holding. bears defending 30 gap.
47 weak high 1 at top of bear flag. worst place to go long.
48 outside bear bar low 2 short off bear trend line.
50 weak high 2 into bear trend line / bopbs from 48 low 2. prob sellers above and below.
51 setup for a failed high 2 into bear trend line. weak bulls buying thinking they are buying for second leg up. retest of low more likely.
52 stronger signal bar for 51 premise. bulls should start to exit and not look to buy for several bars.
56 first break of bear trend line. bulls want higher low / second leg up. possible, but 54 weak candidate for higher low.
57 three strong bull bars but still within small trading range since 46. possibly forming low of trading range (54 low which is also at yesterdays low).
58 4 strong bull bars. bears want to form expanding triangle bear flag (45,46,48,54), but would need a second entry after strong bull bars. could also form a large low 2 pullback (two legs up in a bear trend). But flat EMA, suspected bottom of trading range.
59 double top bear flag with 46 / 48, expanding triangle bear flag, 2nd EMA gap bar but better to wait for second entry since 4 strong bull bars and flat EMA. possible bear trap and bottom of TR.
61 bears struggling to close below EMA, sign of weakness and suggests trading range / bear trap more likely. but better to wait for confirmation before buying. bulls trying to form bull channel (37-55 low).
64 bulls finally filled bear 31 gap. mm target from 45 spike is 21 high and suspeted high of TR. prices do have a wedge bear flag shape (46,58,64). but 64 is a weak signal bar. poss failed wedge and mm up which is around OOD and likely to be tested since TR day.
66 bull BO, bears gave up. 66 poss MG, target is same as 45 spike (21 close).
73 small ttr, LOM, prob will test / close near open. will prob remain quiet until close.


Today was a trading range day / trending trading range day. Prices sold off in two legs from a micro wedge top similar to yesterday. After the second somewhat parabolic bear leg, prices reversed up and back into yesterdays range where prices found support and formed the bottom of a trading range and began a second leg up.

Best trades
26 low 2 bopb to EMA after a bear spike. also a variant and LTF failed high 2. but in middle of TR 50/50% so swing short.

30 failed high 2, bopbs from 26 low 2 and EMA. trapped bulls so acceptable scalp for new LOD.

47 weak high 1 at top of bear flag and off bear trend line. best entry was above 47, but selling below when 48 became an outside down bar was also acceptable and reached a scalpers target before reversing.

54 wedge bull flag higher low MTR. also a failed failure (failed high 2 failed). the 45 rally was strong enough to look for a buy setup on a retest of the low, but signal bar was weak. % maybe 50% at most, prob closer to 40%. but reasonable swing buy

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #18 (permalink)
 Stillgreen 
Oregon
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES
 
Stillgreen's Avatar
 
Posts: 191 since May 2014
Thanks: 342 given, 247 received

@mastercraft29, I appreciate your analysis as I also have been learning this approach.
Why do you start your charts at 7 EST ? Since the EMA is important to you, this start time seems unusual to me, as it skews it a bit. I would think that a 24 chart or one starting at 8am ( New York session) would give you an EMA more in line with what other traders are seeing. Al has said that he uses a 24 hr chart for his forex trading.
Thanks for your posts. I don't trade forex, but do trade 6E futures, and the charts are very close.
Do you exclusively trade EUR/USD , or look at other pairs also ?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #19 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014

@Stillgreen - good question, I figured this would come up eventually. I originally started with an 8AM session since the 24 hour chart is too much information and too hard to decifer from yesterdays price action. But because the forex market essentially never sleeps, I felt the 8 AM start time took too much information away, and like you mentioned, skewed the EMA/open. The 7AM is kind of a happy medium and just a personal preference for a little more information before the open.


One thing to remember is that for the first two hours the EMA can be misleading, on any chart (except a 24 hour chart). And price action dominates the EMA or any thing else. So even though the EMA is important to me and I use it frequently, it is more important later in the day versus the open. I guess the easiest thing to do is to think of it as a magnet in the morning until it is tested, then from there decide if it will hold as support / resistance based on the test and overall price action.


I only trade the EUR/USD 5 minute chart, nothing else. If you are a beginner I suggest doing the same; focus on one chart, one market, one time frame and focus on bettering yourself as a trader until consistently profitable.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #20 (permalink)
 mastercraft29 
central florida
 
 
Posts: 192 since Jul 2014


1-17-17




Overnight the bulls formed a strong bull micro channel on the 60 minute chart, filling the 12/9 bear gap (outside down bar) on the daily chart. Although the bulls got a breakout above the large trading range and will likely make a mm up, prices are currently reversing down from a three push, wedge shaped pattern and bull trend channel line on the 60 minute chart. The bull trend line is relatively far away and could result in a buy vacuum as the strong bulls step aside and wait for a test of the trend line to buy. This could lead to a strong and relentless bear trend on LTF charts. Less likely, the bulls continue to buy aggressively. Most likely prices will remain in trading ranges as the bulls and bears fight for control.

17 weak bear channel, bulls buying below lows, bears selling above bars / bull closes. both able to make scalps, prob trading range soon.
20 bear trend channel overshoot, first close below EMA. tight bear channel, better to wait for more buying pressure before buying, too low in bear channel to sell.
22 stairs pattern, gaps filling, bulls making scalps buying below lows scaling in lower. 20 bear channel looks more like bear leg in TR than strong bear trend. prob trading range soon, but no break of bear channel yet.
23 building buying pressure (first two consecutive bull bars). 19/20 closes suspected bottom of developing TR. need MDB or DB before buying.
24 bull BO bear TL, 3 consecutive bull bars. close above previous bear LH (17). possible ET bottom soon (14,17,20,24).
25 bears trying to form broader bear channel (25 close). weak short setup (bull bar) for ET / LH. but buying too high in bear channel / trading range. 50/50% below 25 (middle of days range), SSW.
26 slightly increased % for bears 25 premise. ok swing short for new low, but % still too low for scalpers.
29 weak high 1 at top of TR, prob sellers above scaling in but bears may wait for new HOD.
31 outside bear bar, variant of a low 2, final flag reversal, DT and MDT. but bull mm tgt above based on 25 spike, and first pullback below a bar since 21 reversal so better to wait if using stop order.
32 scale in bears made scalpers profit selling above 26 scaling in. bulls trying to form channel for second leg up / mm target.
34 bull BO, but strongest bull bar of 21 rally. possible MG, but more likely EG. mm target not far above, might get second climax bar / reach mm before reversing.
35 setup for a failed bull BO and buy climax. but relatively weak compared to 34 and rally. ok swing short, but better to waift for second entry if scalping. might get 1 more push up for spike and channel bull (30,35 first two pushes).
37 second entry short for failed bull BO at top of TR. variant of IOI setup (bodies).
38 strong bear entry bar, bulls will buy close to attempt failed low 2 third push up in spike and channel. 34 bull gap still open, sign of strength.
40 bear reversal with FT, AIS for test of bottom of TR.
41 bulls still trying to form bull channel. held above 34.
45 weak sideways high 2 at top of TR, flat EMA. 60% failure and test of bottom of range.
48 bear BO, failed high 2 top of TR.
54 small ttr, LOM. bears have advantage since top of larger trading range. BOM.
62 weak bull reversal attempt after 3 strong bear bars. middle of bear channel, but upper third of larger trading range. 22 bull gap likely to be filled before EOD.
70 weak high 1 into top of ttr and bear trend line (descending triangle). third attempt to break above, bulls should give up soon.


Today was a trading range day and spent most of the day in a 15 pip TTR. The bulls created an opening reveral at the EMA that led to two legs up and a failed breakout to a new HOD. Prices then entered a ttr (descending triangle), where the bulls and bears fought for direction.

Best Trades

21 wedge bull flag off EMA, and high 2 final flag reversal. this turned into an opening reversal, but was a swing trade (low %) due to the doji signal bar and still being within the bear MC. the 23 bopbl setup was stronger and a second entry, but still best to take as a swing trade.

30 weak high 1 into top of trading range. only reached a scalpers profit before reversing to a new HOD.

37 low 2 after a failed breakout to a new HOD, also a variant of IOI setup (bodies), and after a buy climax (34).

56 low 2 at top of TR, lower high, DTBF with 38, and expanding triangle (42,45,47,49,56).

Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > EURUSD 5min daily analysis


Last Updated on May 31, 2022


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
     



Copyright © 2022 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts