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Open: tested start of yest bull channel and yest low. within yest range, heavy two sided trading. prob some form of TR day.
20 strong cc bear bars from DT and failed BO yest range. AIS.
21 DB, middle of TR.
22 outside bull bar. bulls bought below 21 weak low 1. holding above 7, want channel. 20 STC bears exited BE. both sides scalping, LOM.
23 DT PB, but after outside bull bar and into EMA. middle of poss bull channel. stop order entry middle of LOM, swing short.
24 poor bear EB, found BB.
27 bull BO to new HOD. test of yest high and 2 legs up from 2. bulls want 27 MG, but rally prob limited by bull TC.
28 bull FT, found SA yest high. failed bull TC overshoot, closed within.
29 parabolic buying compared to 28. no sign of strong bears yet, prob waiting for mm up from 7 or 27 just above. poss spike and climax bull trend and early HOD.
30 profit taking at mm tgts. but no sign of bears.
32 waning bull momentum, PB likely soon. bulls want bull channel to follow, bears want strong reversal and HOD. so far bull case stronger.
33 high 1 buy setup but LO bulls take profits just above, risky. bulls want to fill yest gap open.
34 first sign of bears, reversed prior 4 closes. bulls likely scale in for test of 33 close.
35 building selling pressure but no strong reversal. prob bull flag and buyers at EMA for test of high.
38 bulls got test of 32 close, exited. did not reach 33. lower high bear reversal, prob start of sec leg down and bull flag TR with 35 low. poss bull trending trading range day.
39 first test of EMA. bears need strong BO with FT below for AIS.
40 failed bear BO, bulls bought EMA. high 2 swing buy, but increased risk. remains AIL. bull flag TR or bull channel.
43 bulls took profits at new high, bears made SP selling without scaling in. poss weak bull channel, TR more likely.
45 first close at EMA, test of bull TL. bulls likely BTC.
46 bull TL holding, bears lacking FT.
49 bull TL failed. bulls have switched to scalping, building selling pressure. BLSHS.
51 bear attempt at failed high 2 / variant of low 2. weak, shorting into sup. more likely BB.
52 bull FT, defended EB. middle of TR, DP getting close to 50/50, slight bull advantage. TR poss final bull flag if failed BO above.
55 converging triangle. low 2 short in middle of TR. low %. prob bear trap and BB.
I am trading 6E now, got tired of Gain issues. Working on handling increased position size so made some mistakes on trade management. breakeven day.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Open: huge gap down but bears failed at bear trend from the open. instead SCX and reversal, bull trend from the open. tested bottom of BCX on 60 min, found buyers. bears want BOPBS to yest low. yest weak sell signal on daily.
20 first close above EMA, but very little selling pressure since open. 17 poss MG, or mm tgt from 10 spike.
21 2 legs up from 5, large low 2 / low 4, MDT. low %, swing short, BTW for more selling pressure. still AIL.
22 again found BB. tight bull channel up from 5. bears not willing to sell aggressively, no bear SP in past 10 bars. bulls buying below bars and bear closes.
23 some signs of selling pressure at high of bar. middle of bull channel. nested wedge top, weak SB. stop shorts low % at this point.
24 better SB for micro wedge, still weak. first EMA gap bar. 50% at best.
26 bull BO to mm tgt, found PT / sellers. filled 25 gap so more likely EG than MG. sell signal for large wedge bear flag, BOPB yest low, and 2EMA gap bar. but prob BTW for sec entry.
27 strong bear EB, reversed prior 6 closes. building selling pressure but closed right at bull TL. LO bears made SP scaling in. transition to TR / poss HOD and start of bear trend.
28 bulls scaling in for test of 25 close. still AIL.
29 bear BO, bulls gave up exited BE after scaling in. first break of bull TL. poss flip to AIS soon on test of high. bears made SP selling on stop, high of developing TR or poss beg of bear trend. 25 close / HOD sell zone.
30 variant of high 2 but buying high in potential TR. bulls now scalping with LO's. trans. to TR. poss bear swing soon. bulls need strong BO above 26 with FT to keep mkt AIL.
33 several sideways bars. bulls so far unable to reach 25 close, bears defending EB stop. bulls losing DP, nearing 50/50.
35 huge bull BO, failed wedge. mm tgt not far above, near gap open. BCX and bull TC overshoot. yest converging triangle magnet, near mm tgt.
37 test of yest triangle. swing short for BCX and 2 legs down but large risk and not quite to mm tgt based on failed wedge.
38 sell signal failed to trigger. instead high 1 buy setup / weak low 1, prob BB and above.
42 outside bull bar / high 2 / failed low 2. buying high after BCX, swing buy.
43 bulls lacking FT but no strong sell signal. small bull channel.
45 PT yest high. sec BCX. increased % of correction soon. bulls want BO above yest and outside day on daily. bears want HTF MTR / correction.
46 2BR for SCX. bulls taking profits around yest high. test below 42/44 start of sec BCX likely.
48 bear FT, reached first tgt below sec BCX. next mm down. sec leg down likely, AIS.
50 mm tgt growing with spike. 49 poss MG. weak bulls view sell off as bull flag. strong bulls exited or will exit on test of high. strong bears are in and will add on more on test of high. strong bulls and bears selling = sec leg down.
53 2EMA gap bar. prob end of first leg down. poss bear channel soon.
56 bears seling above bars / bull closes. small bear channel.
59 bear BO to below first BCX. climactic, parabolic selling. 59 selloff prob first of two larger legs down.
62 parabolic wedge to 55 mm tgt. prob get 2 leg pb to EMA soon. tight bear channel from 54.
66 first test of EMA since 54, found selling. but prob get sec leg up from wedge bottom even if small. bears want broader bear channel.
71 2 legs up from 65. strong rally, 69 MG tgt just above.
74 big up, big down, big confusion = large TR. not even a low 1 reversal attempt in 10 bars, crazy.
75 first sign of bull PT. 2BR. prob BB but buying high, getting risky.
76 75 short could not even trigger. strong buying pressure.
Trade I took (still working on increased position size, not taking every trade i should be). However today was insane so I was overly cautious.
1). 39 high 1 / failed reversal. tried buying below 38 but hesitated for 1 sec too long. originally took as scalp, changed to swing when 42 high 2 triggered.
Hey Racer - I consider anything outside of 7AM EST - around 3 PM to be "after hours." During these times the institutions begin scalping for 7 pips or so which is less than a 10 pip min for a scalp. The spread is also much wider than during normal hours, making it that much harder to make a profit. However, I do know other guys who trade the EURUSD in early AM hours, the volume usually picks up around 6AM EST but just depends (look at today for instance, huge overnight movement).
I understand why beginners want to trade after hours to learn because they are working full time or something else prevents them from trading normal hours. If this is the case I see you as having two options. One, replay the day on SIM mode and practice trading. This is what i did while i was still working, and you can trade an entire day in 2-3 hours to gain experience. Second option is to trade a foreign forex market that trades during our overnight hours. The AUDJPY is one i traded back then occasionally, which starts trading around 8PM if i remember correctly. But again you should consider the spread depending on the broker you are using. Another option is to trade a HTF chart such as a 60 or 240 minute chart. You will have many more opportunities than say a daily chart, but dont have to sit in front of the market to trade. However I would detour anyone from trading a futures market overnight, which requires an overnight margin.
This is a personal preference really. If you are only trading 1000 lots and wanting experience, go for it but you should focus on swing trading and not scalping. You will prob be better off to use a swing stop as well. As far as trading for a living, i think you are better off trading during normal market hours, whatever market that may be.
Thanks a lot, that all makes sense. I have been developing my method on sim with both EURUSD and GBPJPY; I will definitely check out AUDJPY and any other suggestions you may have.
I'm nowhere near ready to go live, really just dabbling at this point. Trying to get the process of entry/exit down to where I can do it without thinking, acknowledging the emotions I feel during the process, and pulling myself back to center to maintain a level head. My goal right now is training to become a well oiled trading machine, if you will, remove the psychological baggage from the process, and follow the plan.
I really appreciate the bar-by-bar breakdown of your charts. Your interpretation is helping me understand more about the inner workings of the whole process.
Open: bear gap down, test of yest low found buyers. bottom of TR on HTF but building selling pressure. so far heavy two sided trading. prob some form of TR day, possible bear trend for test of EMA on daily. bears need FT from yest EB. high volatility again today.
20 failed BO of bear TC. bulls aggressive at LOY. bears need BO below with FT for bear trend day.
21 bear FT but tail, failed BO LOY. bulls making money buying lows / below bars, scaling in. but no strong reversal.
22 big outside bull bar. 2 legs down from open, failed bear TC overshoot. bears giving up, likely exit 21 close. waiting to sell higher.
23 bears defending TL, selling EMA scaling in for test of 21. weak bull EB but mid to lower half bear channel.
24 21 bears trapped, instead bears exited 20 close. still within bear TL but building buying pressure.
25 low 2 sell, ok swing short but big risk. prob SA for weak high 1.
26 nested converging triangle. bears not willing to sell below bars, SOW.
27 low 2, bears holding TL and below EMA. but exiting higher and higher (tails). several sideways bars, LOM.
28 bear EB, bears got test of 21. bulls have opp to take control.
29 weak bear FT, but weak buy setup. CT and small TR continues. bears unable to reach TC, poss break of TL soon.
34 bears lacking FT, DP drifting to 50/50. could favor bulls soon. strong outside bull bar, building buying pressure, broke bear TL. poss MTR soon.
35 wedge bear flag and CT sell. bulls prob exit below but prob final bear flag. swing short.
37 bear test of low, found PT. prob BB LOD and end of bear. 2 legs up / reversal prob soon.
38 weak low 1 but weak bull reversal. prob end of first leg down and sec leg to test low of bear.
38 SCX and wedge bottom, bears take profits. prob end of bear soon.
40 swing buy for two legs up / DB MTR. first bull tgt above 39 / middle of CT. bears want bear channel to continue. possible but need FT below LOY for premise to remain strong.
41 good bull EB, prob BB for weak low 1 after SCX and reversal.
42 strong bull FT, AIL for 2 legs up. reached first bull tgt above 39, next MM up /start of bear channel.
43 test of CT. weak bears selling EMA expecting bear flag. strong bulls and bears waiting for sec leg up before selling. likely BB.
45 first close above EMA but strong buying pressure. bulls want to keep 42 gap open, bears want test down to exit remaining shorts.
46 EMA gap bar, first reversal attempt relatively weak. but buying too high at this point prob BTW for HL / start of sec leg up.
47 outside bull bar, trapped weak bears. prob try one more time for test back down before giving up on bear flag premise.
48 2EMA gap bar / MDT. stronger swing short. bears prob quick to take profits. bulls want HL and sec leg up / DB PB.
49 poor bear EB, need FT and break below EMA. buy setup for failed low 2 but buying high, swing only.
50 bear FT bar but weak close. small TR, prob end of first leg up.
51 high 2 buy but high of small TR. poss small FF, SA and bull trap. BTW unless buy for swing.
53 bear EB for failed high 2. poss high of developing TR with middle of CT.
54 back to back failures, both sides fighting for FT. BOPBS sell setup, bulls prob give up below, wait for test of low.
55 stronger sell setup for BOPBS. prob SA and below.
66 strong reversal up from DB PB. bulls def 40 EB stop. start of sec leg up. bears want LH and channel from 27-52.
67 bear TL holding but weak sell signal bar. BOPB to middle of CT.
68 good bear EB. broader bear channel remains intact.
Today was a gap and bear channel day which evolved into a TR / broader bear channel after a SCX and wedge bottom. Although the bears remained in control for most of the day, the bulls were still able to make money. Interesting PA feature of the day; micro and macro converging triangles at same price level (1.2230). The bears will prob get a close around the LOD and a bear FT bar on the daily chart. Possible bear trend resumption into the close.
Trades I took (still uncomfortable with so much volatility and increased risk. But the best thing to do when uncomfortable is not trade.)
35 swing short, 20 tick stop 40 tgt (22 low) . stopped myself out at SP when BO below LOY failed. shook out of good trade and large profit, original tgt reached. good entry, poor follow through and management.
55 BOPBS sell setup, SP, WS. again exited too early when SP not reached on 61, reached on following bar. good entry, poor management due to emotional ties.
Glad to hear you like my work. I was starting to think no one reads it and i am wasting my time here lol. But even if i only help 1 person in this business, that is reason enough for me since most information in the trading world is a scam or flat out wrong.
It sounds like you are on the right track and it is good that you try to remain centered. I did not start meditating until prob 2 years into my trading career, which i wish i would have done sooner as it helps tremendously. I believe the psychological side of trading is the hardest to overcome. Sure it gets easier, but it never goes away, especially as you build your position size. Look at my trading from this week as an example. Since trading the 6E I struggle with trade management and make mistakes. Sure I am making money which is great but I should be making a lot more. I tend to hold myself back and prevent myself from becoming wildly successful, which i believe a lot of traders do due to emotions.
Since you are trading SIM you can trade whatever whenever, because it isnt real money so who cares right? That is a problem with trading SIM and another thing i wish i did sooner. I have a friend who started trading before me, and has never made it past SIM mode. You never really develop the awareness, patience, and discipline that you do with trading real money and will continue taking poor trades because deep down it really doesnt matter to you. This contributes to the fear of going live since you havent had any success. This only adds to the fears and emotions and makes it that much harder when you go live. I am not saying not to start on SIM, but personally I think you should limit yourself to 6 months to a year max. Once you begin trading real money you start to become more patient and disciplined. Even if it is only 1 dollar you are risking, you still have something on the line and it will change your behavior.
The best way to learn to trade is to open a small forex account and trade 1000 lots. Risk a dollar or two, find your style and develop your strategy (MAKE SURE IT MAINTAINS A POSITIVE TRADERS EQUATION, VERY IMPORTANT). I started out trading futures which was a big mistake. No beginner has any business in a futures market, I dont care how much money you have or how "good" you think you are, you will be humbled when you wake up to realize your account is down a few thousand dollars.
Sorry for the rant, it is not directed at you personally. I have read other beginners talk about starting out in futures. Hopefully they read this and learn from my mistakes.
Open: bears got FT and test of EMA on daily, likely get close below. possibly start of larger correction for atleast 2 legs down after CC BCX's. Bears want close on LOW (todays low) for strong signal bar and 2BR. Big gap down, BO yest low. gap and bear channel open. But small range, bulls making money buying lows scaling in.
21 buy setup for failed low 2, but right into bear TL since open. only LO bulls made money so far, risky buy stop but ok for swing.
22 outside bear bar, weak close. failed high 2, but shorting into support and LOM. Swing only or wait. prob buyers below LOD scaling in. within MF of EMA. descending triangle.
23 small bear BO, new LOD. bears need strong FT otherwise TR more likely. bear TC not far below.
24 bear FT, STC bar but right at TC and bulls scaling in below bar. BTW and sell higher. 24 MG if kept open.
25 end of STC, downside limited by TC.
26 LO bulls made SP scaling in. filled 24 gap. weak bear channel, prob transition to TR soon. weak low 1 into bear TC, BB.
28 bulls made SP buying above 25, bad for bear trend premise. more likely TR but sellers at EMA. building buying pressure.
30 low 2 at bear TL and EMA. weak SB. 28 OB restarted count and weak bear trend. BTW.
32 first break of bear TL first touch of EMA. weak bulls see as failed low 2 but buying high in bear flag. more likely SA.
33 first close above EMA, no strong reversal so more likely bear flag. bears STC for SP / test of low.
34 bull BO bears gave up. wait to sell higher.
35 bears sold 34 close. 2BR for test of low and EMA gap bar. middle of developing TR, swing short.
36 good bear EB, bulls want test of 34 close.
37 bull BO new HOD. parabolic and climactic. sec leg up. poss buy vacuum test of TR high / bears waiting for new HOD.
38 weak bull FT but weak short SB. BTW for more info. bulls want 37 MG.
39 bull FT, 37 mm tgt not far above. bears scaling in above HOD. prob TR and not start of bull trend, avoid buying high.
40 inside bear bar for failed bull BO. ok swing short but sec entry better. LO bears made SP.
41 weak bear EB, bulls scaling in for test of 39. bulls def 37 gap. but weak high 1 into HOD and after CX. poss SA.
42 sec entry failed bull BO swing short.
43 weak bear EB but buying too high. bears need FT.
44 weak bear FT but weak buy setup.
45 indecision, both sides fighting for FT. bear premise not yet invalidated.
46 failed high 2, bulls should give up. first bear tgt below 37.
47 bulls not yet giving up, stronger high 2 but top of TR. more likey bull trap. bulls need BO above 42.
51 weak bull BO. small TR poss FF. prob SA 39.
53 sec BCX to 37 mm tgt. less likely, 52 MG. small bull channel.
54 bull momentum slowing but no sign of strong bears yet.
55 bear EB, bears sold above 39. weak high 1 into bull TC. SA.
56 bear FT, building selling pressure but still within bull channel.
57 outside bull bar test of 53 close. bulls returned at EMA / TL, bears took SP. strongest bull bar of bull trend.
59 bears selling new highs, bulls taking profits and losing momentum. likely SA for weak high 1 into bull TC.
60 stronger high 1 but mid of bull channel.
62 CC BCX's, wedge top, and bull TC overshoot. bears sell for test of 47 start of bull channel, bulls take profits wait for test as well.
63 BCX continuing.
65 MDT and sell setup for BCX / bull TC overshoot.
66 65 failed to trigger. no sign of bears. reached leg 1 = leg to mm tgt. bulls want mm up based on 39 spike.
69 good bear EB, weak SB. BTW for sec entry at this point, strong buying pressure.
70 sec entry, not great SB but reasonable swing short.
71 again failed to trigger. some signs of PT but no strong bear reversal. bull mm tgt not far above.
73 reached bull mm tgt. small TR prob FF and end of bull soon. should test EMA at min.
74 swing short for 2 legs down
Today was an extremely strong spike and channel bull trend day and bull reversal day. Prices opened with a gap and bear channel but reversed up strongly from a wedge bottom.
Trades I took
33 STC, exited SP loss. made mistake of selling low in likely TR.
42 sec entry, swing tgt test of low. stopped out again at SP.
74 swing short for 2 legs down / test of beg bull channel.
Hey guys - Another trader asked for my thoughts on HTF EURUSD analysis. Thought i would share since I have not been posting much lately. Sorry, too many projects outside of trading (trying to remodel my house as much as possible before my son is born in October). I also quit typing analysis to focus more on trading. I do plan on doing end of day recaps soon but do not know when.
I recently switched back to EURUSD, as i grew risk adverse in the 6E. Trading became too stressful and i grew too focused on money. Although i hate dealing with the spread, I am much more comfortable and can scale in/out of trades in the spot. I am currently working on trying to swing more and focusing on entering all best trades to align with my education.
EURUSD 7/3
Daily - strong buying since failed bear BO of TR. BCX and reversal but bears need strong EB / FT for AI flip to short. Growing expanding triangle and small TR poss FF but strong BO and rally so bears prob need sec entry.
Weekly - buy vacuum test of TR high but strong buying pressure and failed low 2. poss bull BO, bulls likely to alteast test above TR before high % of strong reversal down. May 19 poss MG, tgt above 1.1600.
Monthly - bear BO and SCX led to sideways 2 year long TR. March led to strong reversal up from failed bear BO of TR and FF reversal (also a wedge bottom). strong BTC bull from reversal, sec leg up likely. poss MM up based on spike (also a mm up based on bear flag TR) and test of bottom of previous TR. The bears want an EMA gap bar and bear channel but looking less likely.
Hey Stillgreen - good to hear from you, hope you are doing well.
Unfortunately I have been too busy outside of trading to work on my book lately. Although i have most of it finished (all of text and about 50 charts with annotations). But i still have atleast another 50 charts to add with annotations, which will take me some time. I am hoping to have it done in the next two months, but i cant say with certainty. Once i have it completed and ready to release i will post more information here (I will be offering BPA and FuturesIO members a discount).
