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Hey fgbl - got back from hols and have picked up the lurgy and struggling to focus on typing this. Supposed to have moved office also, been a bit of a mess....put back til later this week. Internet connection in Dec went down (i was in a trade) one afternoon (happens quite a bit) and the office manager didnt bother calling the provider til the next morning. I assumed it was sorted prev day and arrived (as did many others) the next morning and it was still down.....no notification before commuting in....so everyone just turned back around to home. I had to print out docs for a meeting in an internet cafe - yep they still exist, thankfully. Fuming! All a bit of a saga. Anyway...
..done much? Low volumes apparently....notice much diff in the price action? Messy?
It's been pretty uneventful in equities, a little late day volatility in bunds but nothing to write home about. A-failure trades around the OR scalps have been the really only thing going at the moment in bunds.
We're coiling nicely in eurostoxx and thus creating a very narrow weekly pivot, expectation is for some breakout soon and sd1 trades but will bide my time. I find mean reversion trades in eurostoxx nearly impossible as it's just such a cagey market to read on the ladder and even the charts.
Will be posting some trades soon when things hot up a bit.
Busy day with a plenty of errors and a few good trades that didn't go my way, luckily I hit the home run on a late day C trade that got me out of the hole, as I was teetering on my risk limit for the day.
1. Shorted what I thought would be a failed break of YH - invalid trade and not in my plan. 2L -3
2. Early long that I scratched after the OR was put in as we were pulling back to vwap and bids came in early. I scratched as I know from experience that I have to patient for it to hit the level and we need at the very least for the next 5 min bar to close. 1L scratch
3. My favourite trade - A down failure as buyers showed up at VWAP and sellers couldn't push it near the a-down value of 8 ticks from OR low. I tried to get another contract on but missed it by 47 contracts in the queue. In those circumstances I would take a 2L trade if the market hovers close to the A down price as that's where I can place my risk. Here we were a little too far off. 1L +14
4. Total fuck up where I placed a another buy order instead of a sell order to close original long. 1L -1
5. Went off the order flow where buyers were hold well at a level above SD1 - got long.
6 Added when buyers came in again at SD1, buyers lost and I puked 1L -6 and the other -5. NEW RULE: NO MORE ORDER FLOW ENTRIES UNLESS AT KEY LEVEL (PIVOT, SD1, VWAP OR YH/YL/UC). UNLESS THERE IS CLEAR FUNDAMENTALS IN PLAY AND MARKET IS RAMPING.
7. Order flow entry before VWAP as buyers came in. We also had R1 pivot support below. However again I didn't wait for the vwap/r1 level to get hit first. 1L -1
8. Long at VWAP/R1 and now had to hold a larger stop as OR top just below. No problems with this entry as we had good confluence. 1L -8
9. Now this is where I'm really getting chopped up playing the long side. HL put in, we just traded through YH and felt that shorts just played a stop run to OR low and we'd bounce big now to the long side. AS you can see we had a solid up bar that hit VWAP so I thought things were OK untill the next two bars. Puked before the C-down level. NEW RULE: WHEN VWAP BREAKS AND NO SUPPORT AT YH/OR TOP THEN DO NOT TAKE TRADES AT OR LOW (IF LONG). ESPECIALLY IF RVOL IS RISING ON CURRENT SWING. 1L -3
10. Now playing the short side - market pulled back to SD1 after making a good C down. Order flow came in solid, I puked as buyers were too strong and pushed back up to near OR low. 1L -5.
11. Still keen on the short side at VWAP and now confluence with YH and OR mid. Took a great order flow entry short that put me near the spike of the candle. Now target is UC at 163.61. Will look to add if given the opportunity.
12. Ballsed it up as added too early on a retest of VWAP. Panicked a little as market had put in a HL. Took off my trade 11 order at breakeven as the market double topped strangely. But held the added order as the market strated to break my way.
13. Poor execution on the add as the market tried to push back up to SD1, then heavy sellers came in on the ladder where I just hit the bid and hoped for it to run to UC. Some buyers came in and absorbed 4 ticks before UC (my 2L target order was 1 tick before as often I've noticed I won't get fills at the reference level). I got out there and called it a day. Scaled in trade: 1. 1L 27 ticks 2. 1L 6 ticks
+$130
My weakness is certainly patience and waiting for levels and I'll get in just before certain levels if I see solid order flow come in. Really this is costing me and now with the new rule and a new postit note on my computer I'll start to be a more patient and ignore the order flow.
