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yeh, needs to be 1:3+ ideally for swing trades for me, and 1:1+ for scalping. Sometimes you see some excellent RR setups eg on flags (which have fairly obvious support/res levels), like the bear one earlier.
This means even with 50% (~coin flip) strike rate i should make money. Should.
Being super selective and cautious in the Christmas period.
Having said that I took a speculative 1L pilot short yesterday at the Eurex open after the ridiculous low volume rally we had in Bund in the US session the day before. I wanted to add on the trade however my account just slipped below the margin required, however now I've beefed up the account with a capital injection and will be scaling after the break.
From the charts you can see on the 10 kase chart that the intermediate trend is up and we had big rally of the last swing which was all from Monday. We were approaching WR2 pivot and I was thinking that trend could continue however after the poor volume the day before and the bearish overnight ZN action I was looking for a counter trend short somewhere around the open.
Check out the PnF chart you can see the parabolic up trend. So I was looking for a break of that and retracement back down to WR1 162.85.
The action off the open was hesitant from the bulls, they attempted to lift above the open twice and failed with a rather large seller coming in. I was only going to get short if RVOL was good the first 5 mins and strangely enough given the time of year it was. I got short on the second attempt to break above the open price and was only going to risk 6 ticks on this trade as that was 3 ticks above the current HOD where sellers were clearly capping it.
The sell came and we moved down to 63.08 before the market ranged before the open. I was thinking of taking it off however we had already broken the pnf trend line and I'm still only risking 6 ticks to hold through the OR and hope for an A-down. This is where luck came and A-down occurred and the market moved down relatively quickly to my target at WR1 62.85.
What's interesting here was that after I exited I was semi interested in taking the short at VWAP around 63.02 however I saw poor RVOL on the leg down and knew I was going against the intermediate trend. Gladly I didn't take a trade it broke through VWAP and eventually tested the HOD.
I think after this trade it allows me to see that I'm clearly going against the intermediate trend and this is where I need to be nimble and take profits at solid levels. However when we're with the trend and RVOL and possibly fundamentals are in alignment then it's time to load the boat at confluence levels.
I'm adding another stat column to my edgewonk journal of whether I'm going with the intermediate trend or countering it. That will enable me to stay with the big picture context and hopefully keep my money management in check.
how did you get on with the trade in the end? Agree with you re fading trends, best wait for PA exhaustion and a LL (or HH) etc.
how are you finding edgewonk?
I have not placed any trades, got an imminent deadline for other work which is good else I would probably have done myself in with chop and low volumes.
Thanks for posting, feel free to keep posting to keep thread alive, its unlikely i will be taking a trade til Jan 2017.
My vwap is not plotting correctly and any help to get my charts looking like yours? I looked through sierra charts download did not find any thing. Thanks for your help.
Managed to pocket 38 ticks on the pilot short from Eurex open through cash open when we had a confirmed A-down on light volume. Target was W R1 pivot where I exited and called it a day and a year then as volume was poor after that. Market went to VWAP, broke through and retraced to the HOD where we balanced and basically have been balancing since then on poor Christmas volume.
Itching for 2017 to begin and looking to employ ACD macro number line stats for the bund and stoxx and see if there is any value in identifying whether we're likely to chop or trend. A lot of ACD traders see this as valuable pre market information to set up the bias for the day and use as confluence when we get A or C confirmations in line with a number line reading.
Edgewonk is great... Allows me to view different stats on my trading that I've customised such as the type of trade, what type of day we've had (A up/down C up/down etc), RVOL levels, Long/Intermediate/Short term trend Up/balanced/down etc. Then with each trade I take I can get an idea whether the trade was right to take based on the contextual picture of the market.
Its a smart journal as you can simulate your futures trades based on past performance so you can see whether your edge is holding up. I've taken 50 ACD/vwap/pivot based trades on this new strategy and I'm in a healthy position.
Will start trading 2L in the new year and will look for first scale positions and re-adds etc and see how well it improves the bottom line.
I'm considering starting a new journal to entice some European traders who trade a similar way as Futures.io is dominant with US market traders but I'll continue to post here till I get round to setting it up.
thanks will look forward to it. I got a little far but still having issues.
trying to draw the lines and RVOL looks different I like yours. Also the cant draw the 0 line in the main graph but do have it in the tick chart. giving me a headache. been working on all night.. But GTG xmas eve party.
