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Price ramped through 50s and so few players in the mkt to counter these moves it was never an option to fade...... til price slowed down and the 'lift every offer and go bid with size' stopped....which was at 59s. Unfort only watching DOM can see the bid sizes, but the chart still gave me the entry.
Possibly.... it appeared there were 1 or 2 big players driving it up so imo waiting for that type of order flow to stop before entering was wise - it was so obvious....at same time the charts gave you the same signal.
Had my biggest ever day the day before yesterday being on the right side of ECBs stock buying program. The Eurostoxx is a trickster and very very hard to read off the book. Very often on a trend day the market with sit at SD1 do size then bids will drop off the book 2/3 ticks below where they were previously holding and then smack the offers up and continue the move.
After being done so many times on that over the last year or so I'm a bit more privy to those setups and will get in on the shakeout.
Yesterday pre FOMC I tried to hit the ball out of the park in the Eurostoxx. We were at a key support level on HTF at VAL of previous day and an area that was resistance that turned support. Market ranged from the open, and remained within the OR however we started to get a 5min rising wedge formed and RVOL on up swingings within it were good. I got long added and added again on the moves back to VWAP in this range.
We got the break above but buyers annoyingly gave up. What's solid about these sort of plays is that you can move SL to the previous low of the rising wedge but not too close to mkt. My target was a tick before YH. I got stopped -6 ticks overall on this trade but could have made around 58 ticks if we got the move out. Decent asymmetric returns here.
Problem was RVOL was poor on the day due to FOMC and mid roll into the March contract so the trade itself was probably the wrong call in the end.
As I've boosted my account recently with solid performance I'm now able to add. The problem on this scale in trade was the I feel I should be waiting for A or C confirmation before starting to scale.
I'd like to hear anyone's thoughts on whether they've in the past added in the OR before A and C have formed.
Not sure about FESX - but with ES I would never trade in the OR with full size/swing setup regardless if at key levels - there is so much hedging/closing out/opening up/balancing of books done at this time by big players that levels are irrelevant (imho) - they dont care about them so why should I. And their volume can push through any of them.
And so far this has been the case a few times from what I have experienced/seen (caveat: limited experience). It doesnt take much for the OR range to push 3-5 pts against position, and although it could go my way its a 50/50 play at best (cos I will have a hard stop then i would say the odds are much less as it often goes both ways by 2-3pts which stops me out before reaching targets of 5pts+).
The picture of the day is so much clearer to me after 30mins+ (whether its consolidating around that level more, or drifting away to search for more demand/supply), and where it looks like testing etc. I would rather see it move away (in whatever direction), search for liquidity (maybe test other levels)...then come back and retest that level later. Everytime I have given the market time to play its hand - i have traded well, & this includes the RTH open.
I however have placed a pilot trade on, small size, see how it plays out, which is what some better traders do also. Have only done a few times and i think i had similar logic as you, and lost (not great sample size, sorry).
Just my 2 cents. Sure others have different opinions.
