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i agree. my heart (not my brain) was tell me to take 5-10
i would have made many 3-4 ur sell got you 2 handles
so here is a question: how do you tell that its a 2 handle day or not. the price for example when 44.25 refused to go below that kept hitting it and the ticks started to reverse probably that was the time to get out? now keeps hitting 46 but tick have not reversed as i write this. hold on? but there was no topping tail at 49 neither was there taper of contracts. or is this a buy point? And value is building higher, POC move up 47.25
The 2 handle question, my take: your fading a strong HTF trend so be cautious and bank some profits as its likely to get back up again to top of range...so can fade again but now with some pts in bank. If its not super strong trend then you are playing for the swing - full from one side to another. Most days are like this - except i wld expect, when its this strong a trend.
The other option is to always play from the long side. Buy dips and scalp....the odds are on your side then for breakout of the range.
I almost got out there, stops are above the highs. Hmm i am not sure about this trade.
got out with a small loss. had a small gain 2 point 3-4 time did not take it.
it LH, LL forming a triangle that is why i thought this was the short, but had my douubt that at the highs there was poor high with no termination of contracts
I think @DaxyMcDaxFace answered your reloading question well.
Regarding your other question. It all depends on context. What time of day that's occurring, where the market has auctioned from, where it could be auctioning to etc.
Say for example we had a major reaction off at a previous day high, we fail and big sellers step in and now that previous good A-up isn't looking so good now.
If the market approached the OR and tapped the OR low 3 times I'd be more inclined to sell it on a C-down (when I can hold the stop size that is).
However that's just one contextual scenario, there are so many others so I can't give a direct answer to your question I'm afraid.
the market could not take out the overnight high trade below the open is short. since it could not take out i went short way early. had a chance to get out at the opening range low. did not. Was looking for the overnight low. (tick divergence) even though the big caps were up (bad decision) the gap was filled. than held on added another and yet again had an opportunity to scale at vwap (profitably) to close out. yet again had another opportunity kept hitting the vwap expecting a break to hit the low of vwap or the mid OR.
the market refused to break 46+- .5 and once had a minor liquidation break not even close to low of today.
So here are the issue that I had in the back of my mind but failed to act.
(1) the market has been one time framing even the overnight session it has failed to take out the low of RTH since dec 1
(2) the buy bars on a 5 min chart was more bullish than sell off (the bears did not have juice to keep the market low), will post the graph
(3) the market did not have consecutive close below the 20ema on a 5 min chart the negative bars were only 1-2 never a big one. it came down buyer bought it back.
(4) it was a vwap trade today the market came and touched many times to vwap refused to go lower was a tell that buy vwap and sell 2 handle rally-rinse and repeat as @inlet calls it or stay away
(5) the lowest tick of the day could not make it below 700 (i think dont remember)
(6) NQ was strong (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) usually on a liquidation break they sell off atleast 10 points or more.
(7) (vix) was not showing divergence vix declining
(8) value building higher-POC now 47.25 when a market builds value higher and the gap is filled than the there is chance of late day rally
(9) market did not touch the open after the first sell off
(10) there was never a taper of contracts on the highs so that had to repaired. not only that every time the market made a new high there was no taper
All of the above bullish
now for bearish
(1) majority of the ticks were below
(2) ADD lines were always below zero but was in the noise level
(3)russel was bearish
(4) untouched pOC
the above i look for signs to shor or long the market for a liquidation break
SO I WAS wrong ALL along. I know everyone will think i have no life since I am writing this on Friday night. but needed to put my thoughts together before I forget.
So for SUNDAY and Monday
(1) Market is poised higher if EU or Asian session never touch RTH low which is 42.75
if it trades to 47.25 (POC) see how the market react there. it may go down below that but I will be looking for a taper in two 30 min window. if the taper is small will go long and will also check the vix and the cumulative volume and crude
so I will be waking up at 3 am est to see how the market reacts at the lows to buy the market to get to 55.75 highs
if the market take out the RTL low than that's a different story will see if its failed break down
(2) if it takes out the RTL and stays there than a different story
Next Wed is FOMC, markets i think are poised to hit even more highs or they go side way with a liquidation break Monday/Tues. on FOMC if markets are down i think they rally to 2300 or till Nasdaq reaches all time high ( still has not reached all time high and ym reaches 20k if up significantly i think funds take profits
@DaxyMcDaxFace if i am sabotaging your daily thoughts please let me know I will be more careful posting my thought or just start mine. https://tos.mx/Xj1Xm6
i dont know why this crap TOS shows up as how it show up that is not what i am seeing
