Well done FGBL, think my price was bit below. You using footprint then? What was your target btw? Mine: prev PA.

This trade doesnt normally work when countering a trend cos obv the retest of extremes is always a high probability. It was purely cos the markets might be a tad over extended and it was eod.





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whats the ADR? 2-3 ticks seems low, but then again ppl use 8 ticks on CL and that also seems low vs its ADR.....all very subjective anyway. I use 5mins time on ES, which is enough to build some value down there....less than that and imo price has rejected it...especially as my targets can be defined on a >5min timeframe - theyre pretty much hourly targets, as thats how long it takes for price to reach them.

Think it was fat tails on here who said he has large A & C values as he mainly trades mean reverting, in other words, it really needs to push decent amt before hes looking at a_ups or down trend moves. Anything too low though surely is possible noise.

ADR on 10 day look back is currently 104 ticks so coming to think about it 2/3 ticks is probably a little small for classing an A-up/down.

wld expect you need to work out whats best for you, as mentioned, its subjective and dependent on what your style is. Not sure but CL smthg like ~150t adr and A/C used is 8 ticks by some ppl.



no, but if ADR suddenly jumps from 15 to 30 then i wld be looking to re-adjust these parameters. Also ADR doesnt include time, which is a key determinant.

I've created two custom stats in my edgewonk journal for time taken for a up/down and a or c values in ticks for each day. When i get a decent enough sample I'll start to create a framework around it.

For now I'm happy with a 5% of ADR a/c values and 2 1/5 mins of OR as per Fisher's recommendation.

Thats 2/3 ticks in Eurostoxx and 5 ticks in Bund.

My take:

If A has formed then look for trend continuation - pull backs into IB/OR and confluence with other levels tend to hold well so are good places to fade/scale in, yest ES if you take it as a_down held well numerous times for at least a few scalps and plenty of time to get out, and rarely offside if picked decent entry.

When theres an A up or down, then price reverses to other side of the OR and finds value below/above the C levels - then this is C_down/up.......and is a strong signal that price will continue now in this direction. You can only have a C if you have first had an A. So a failed A (didnt find value which depends on time limits) doesnt count.

Thats afaik, dont want to complicate it too much imo, as its only for context.

...only 2 on and tight stop now as was hoping would pop down to ETH lows:



Targets R1 Day pvt 2243 ish.