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ES intraday 'swing' trader
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ES intraday 'swing' trader

  #141 (permalink)
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wldman View Post
I'm wondering if you would take 20 minutes to look at a slightly different chart...one that I think gives a better picture of what I think you are looking at.

I am assuming that is a ETH VWAP on the close? Seeing the time on the horizontal axis would help...because IMO you should only be trading high volume times...don't take offense but that would be CME open in the US or 7am central standard time to about 10am or 11am cst...if you love not sleeping you might see good volume into the US equity close.

For me...that is both, my eyes and my brain, trying to read the tick chart and pick off divergence is way easier looking at the Klinger Volume Oscillator, do you have that on this platform? I do not have futures data because TD, for some reason won't ship it to NT. I'm married to NT so unless I can recreate in ToS I will have to move an account or open another new one.

That said I'll post a pic for you to look at if I can.

Here is why Im typing at you.

That "sell" on the top chart off the divergence outside in from above sd2 should be a lock. Especially if that is during busy hours.

I wonder about the bounce off lower sd2 and the reject at vwap too, lets see what KVO said there.

So, if you care to look at that and have a dialogue, cool. If not no worries as I'm not into imposing my hallucination over yours.

Cheers for the input Dan.

Time is on the 2nd chart, the 1st one is few hours before. Its day vwap, and that chart only rth.....i have an eth chart with evolving day vwap also.

This is all in sierra charts. I get what you mean with high vol but sometimes vol doesnt arrive til well after the decent rr entry. I know ppl who will turn off the pc til volume comes back in then theres others who only care for it to get the push through decent retail levels (eg Inlet etc) for the extra wonga. High rel vol generally gets me to a target or into a trade tbh, unless i trade eth but i am going to leave eth behind for a little for now unless obvious.

ToS appears to be tricky to replicate vwap et al afaik, seems bit odd guess its mainly option stuff...no idea tbh.

US close is fine am UK based so not too late, eth uk time is obv ok.

I have week and day pivots, week vwap and sd bands, day and eth vwap bands on other charts i just dont want to clutter the main entry chart too much. I am more likely to use day vwap SD bands for targets unless it starts to trend then will use SD1 on a pullback for a bounce if confluence w/ smthg else eg OR high et al.... but how often does that happen in ES? In this example price was at the highs before midday iirc and 7pts up from the lows which is < half of ADR(15)....SD hasnt had great deal of time/range to develop imo and wld be reluctant to use it for that reason. I prob would not use a different session (eth) vwap band either as the range/OHLC is likely to be different and just adds another layer of info which confuses whats unfolding in rth imo. Eth and prev day vwap would look at early in day for possible support/resistance in a trade or as confluence but never as reason to enter alone. However, i will take a look at eth bands from now on, thks again.


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Last edited by DaxyMcDaxFace; December 3rd, 2016 at 03:22 PM.
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  #142 (permalink)
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Thanks man...

I get it that we are looking at a similar picture, but with more than nuanced differences in interpretation. If talking out those differences ever seems like it might be interesting please let me know. When I figure out futures feed I will post pics that you can comment on with your specific view. Be well and do well.

Dan

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  #143 (permalink)
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Great thread, Daxy. Good to see examples with real-time trading; a rarity in the forum world.

Out of curiousity...I see you mentioning a lot about entries, with confluences, rel volume, and the like - but dont elaborate much on targets. I am surprised, as you seem very meticulous about everything. Do you have a specific plan for determining targets? Exits are the name-of-the-game, and you seem to manage your risk well, but are you just as specific in your targets? or do you feel more comfortable being more discretionary there?

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  #144 (permalink)
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wldman View Post
I get it that we are looking at a similar picture, but with more than nuanced differences in interpretation. If talking out those differences ever seems like it might be interesting please let me know. When I figure out futures feed I will post pics that you can comment on with your specific view. Be well and do well.

Dan

Agree we are not far away in process.

I have just had my best run of consistency and profit since i can remember, and i have still so much to improve on. As mentioned in our prev discussion its more about the 'me' areas to improve, not the method itself, these include:

~risk management (twice i was at fault, this didnt cost me money this time, it cost me unnecessary pain & potential down day)
~tight stops (cost me money 4 or 5 times prob) - most times i had hit my day targets so was protecting that (still stupid). The rr on my fri short was ~1:8 in a tight range day, which just wont work long term.
~lack of confidence (eg position size too small only put 1 lot on - so was either getting out to early and not being able to let one run, or trying to let it run and ending up scratching) or not taking setups. Again i had hit day targets.
~FOMO - i have done cpl of times and got out before its cost me much. Generally happens after i get stopped out on a trade which wld have worked and i want to get back in.

Just want to stress these are very infrequent, and have improved in these areas (and others) since starting the journal.

(I have yet to review properly so these are estimated, busy with other business stuff today, maybe finish later).

Thanks.


Last edited by DaxyMcDaxFace; December 4th, 2016 at 08:01 AM.
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  #145 (permalink)
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karentrader View Post
Great thread, Daxy. Good to see examples with real-time trading; a rarity in the forum world.

Out of curiousity...I see you mentioning a lot about entries, with confluences, rel volume, and the like - but dont elaborate much on targets. I am surprised, as you seem very meticulous about everything. Do you have a specific plan for determining targets? Exits are the name-of-the-game, and you seem to manage your risk well, but are you just as specific in your targets? or do you feel more comfortable being more discretionary there?


Hi @karentrader

Many thanks for the comment. I do try to post live entry, but often when the level is of interest and i get filled i am concentrating really hard (panicking!) as it hangs around the entry level. I only get a breather to post sometimes when its moved into the money. I have no qualms about posting a loss or a poor entry btw, just an fyi as some may notice that some posts are quite far after entry level, and possibly in the money.

Most of my trades are swing trades - someone on here has defined that as circa 5pts+ based on ADR (30%+ of day range), which makes sense, and thats about right for me as almost all my targets are looking for min 5pts. My targets are all known in my mind before hand as I need to work out the approx risk:return before entering. The first trouble area is often Vwap (rth or eth) so this would be target 1 or opportunity to bank smthg and then look to readd (i may add before taking some off also). A risk return of 1:3 is good, but sometimes i am looking for more than that and have already got stopped out (friday short) despite being right, so I need to not strive for entry perfection every time and be happy with 1:3 or 4.

A cpl of times (in last 2 weeks) just after the open I was tempted to take a long but price was only 3pts away from ETH vwap and some other key PA levels, so I waited for price to move away another few pts - & this is where i had previewed much better levels (imo) to fade, before getting involved. My rr was now great as instead of taking a 4pt+ risk (where the next levels were below; + more risk if i was to average) for a 3pt win, i was taking a 1.5pt risk:6 pt return trade. Obviously theres the possibility of missing out - eg on friday, there was no set up (arguably on HTF there was) for me for push higher - it need to get back down into 86 area for better levels, & then ETH vwap etc was 6pts+ away rather than the 3pts. Fading at the 96.75 level was a play for a swing to the lod (not vwap) - as range was still small & if its not extending higher then it probably will lower (7pt range at the time, ADR is 16pts), but i managed to have a ridiculously tight 3 tick stop (rr of 1:8?? wth!) and bought the hod to close out.

Once I have bit more confidence I will prob be putting on a pilot trade earlier in the day as a tester, but for now the risk v return focus is working ok.

Hope this makes sense! I will be mindful next time and post approx targets also, thks for the heads up.

Rgds,
Daxy


Last edited by DaxyMcDaxFace; December 4th, 2016 at 07:56 AM. Reason: to put re load comment in
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  #146 (permalink)
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Wow, our entries were almost the same. The day started out: That we were gap down 4 handles, and opened in yesterdays range (responsive trade, especially NFP was a non-event) and yest RTH low was 86 (something) and ONL was 84.25 and overnight inventory was 100% short. So I expected a short squeeze to take out ONH. If it cant take out the ONH than a short. but it took out ONH and came back down on the way down tick made higher highs, but futures struggling to get high. so I sold 1. Also was looking to add at 2200 (2201 previous day high). Value was lower so I was definitely looking for a test of daily ETH vwap 93.50 (and daily pivot). and test of 91.25 (ONH) and 89.50 (POC). The issue i had, is that I had only 1 contract in my live account and had 2 in my sim account. I front ran and covered in my live account at 94.50 as i though it could go to 2200 but in my sim account i covered at 92.50 (front ran) when i went long in my live account even though i was sure it will get to POC. this was a responsive day. i added again at 90.5 than should have unloaded at 93.50 but got greedy was looking for the highs of the day. that is where i should have unloaded and got short since futures struggled to go higher and ticks were making lows (just as you pointed out). but kept the long and added a 3 at 89.50 and and a 4th at 88.50 (rather stupid think to do).
The points I look at are:
Daily vwap
Just started OR need to understand ACD
Look at Value areas overnight inventory whether we open in balance or out of balance
Daily, weekly and mothly pivots
ONL, ONH, Previous day high and low
HTF charts
I also watch NQ and TF
BTW i went flat at 93.50 in live did not want to hold position before the Italian referendum on Sunday. for the results start to come out before the Sunday open.

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  #147 (permalink)
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Day preview

Morning all,

Well the Italian referendum spiced things up a little yest & hopefully for RTH today, a little suspicious activity in the EU mkts this morning, I havent read the newswires but with many 'analysts' predicting end of the EU wldnt be surprised if ECB have been busy on the buy button. So risk on trade is back on? Who knows, lets hope theres some vola to play with though. I have no bias.

Some levels of interest for today (ETH & week vwap will change by the open):

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2192 seems pivot area at moment.

---------------------
PnF chart showing support level (prev resistance) 75-85 from PA perspective, which it has now dipped into twice now ETH, most recent @79 last night:

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I tried a scalp short at Day pvt R2 @2204 and stopped, down 2.25pts...looks great now! Was hoping for week R1 @2207 but didnt quite reach.

Good luck trading.

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  #148 (permalink)
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levels

Theres so many levels in the 90s its going to be a waiting game to see if any hold for a long.


97 R1 day; y_hi
95-96 eth & week vwap
93 gap fill
92 prev RTH vwap , mth vwap, eth open

above for a fade short
2203-6 day pvt r2, gd PA, ETH high
2207.50 day pvt r3


Last edited by DaxyMcDaxFace; December 5th, 2016 at 10:58 AM.
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  #149 (permalink)
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awful start....

Down 13pts...

...was down 2.75pts in eth scalping badly, then lost 12 pts on 2 shorts.

~sold 04s on tick div 3 lot - 2pt stop (quite wide level) -6pts
~ sold R3 06.5s on tick div & stopped close to hod - hmm, do i have hard stop here? did i have one cos of my 1st poor trade?

Just trying to scalp stuff back now, 2 lot max size.

This will be a long day.

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  #150 (permalink)
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no idea...


...what to do , could have faded r3 but tick got strong, and really want it to at least test highs again before fading short. ignoring tick div unless a great level - and r3 after it was already broken isnt.

Its hanging below SD1 but also above vwap, so this cld be consolidating til after lunch. Will try and scalp smthg but struggling to read anything.

this is A_up also.

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