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Fishy Poker
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Fishy Poker

  #1 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
San Diego California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 127 since Oct 2015
Thanks: 23 given, 44 received

Fishy Poker

This is simply a log of market psychology coming from a "novice amateur" in which I believe the smart money takes full advantage of.
I can't fully explain it, but I believe a certain aspect of trading is related to the smart money bluffing the dumb money. This is noted in accumulation/distribution phases.

So before the big market meltdown of last year, Greece/Asian yuan news overnight, I was positioned to the short side. However it was extremely frustrating to be short as the day session would result with making a higher low intraday, or huge rips higher.
Even on a neckline support the YM would test it almost 8 times and hold. So this would result in me covering, which then would lead to an overnight break of support based on "news."

Anyways this year has been a losing streak for me. Probably my worst year with the start of GOLD&Silver ramp up. I bought both of these miners HEAVILY at the bottom based on my analysis. It went up a lot initially and I could smell money coming in. I felt like Jesse Livermore and listened to the adage of holding on to winners. But low and behold it gave one warning sign and went low enough for me to capitulate as it broke my rock bottom entry levels.......But then low and behold that was the bear trap of a lifetime, and it just skyrocketed for the rest of the year with no higher lows for a chance to allow me to get back in. That messed with me psychologically......to be with the smart money very early....and to hold for what seemed longterm to me...(few months) only to then bear trap me and take off. I wasn't prepared that's for sure.

Then the February rip higher in the general indexes. I didn't understand why Russell 2000 did not even make a higher low but just kept rallying. Was I short? Nope, I actually covered all my shorts on the low of the year Feb 11th if I remember. However I did lose money attempting to reshort the strong bounce.

Now I am creating this journal for myself to log analysis of mainly global macro markets. I used to blog for Slope of Hope back in the day but have upped my game greatly since those days. Why global macro markets? Because I believe in the general trend of indexes and when major index averages tend to show the same signal, they tend to trend the same way.

I am hoping to aim for things I feel fishy about the market because it tends to end up being right most of the time and we're all here to focus on high probability trades.

Now I'd like to focus on the Russell 2000 as of today. It had everything set up for a higher low bounce but then 10/24 it started to diverge from the rest of the indexes. NQ on the other hand had a monstrous ramp to new highs on the 24th..... and enough on the 25th overnight to make new all time highs. So even while in my head, I was thinking the markets are bullish because NQ is making new all time highs, Russell 2000 was telling a different story. These little things are what I'd like to focus on and hopefully clear my mind of what's being printed on the tape by other markets.

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  #3 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
San Diego California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 127 since Oct 2015
Thanks: 23 given, 44 received


10/27 Intermarket wrapup
Sp500:Bullish, just closed past important level
DJI: Bullish or just pierced important level.
NDX: N/A
COMP: Holding level=bearish for now.
Russell 2000: Still bearish.
Nikkei 225: Still more upside left, so bullish despite important resistance on index.

Intermarket reversed:
Sp500: Continuing Bull Trend
DJI: Bullish or just pierced important level.
NDX: N/A
COMP: Bearish
Russel 2000: Bearish
Nikkei 225: Getting to almost very bearish level.

Naked Indexes:
Amsterdam:Bearish
Australia:Bearish
Bel20:Neutral, at resistance
France:Neutral
Germany/DAX:Bullish
Transports:Neutral
DJUSHB: Still bearish, a few points more
DJI: At very important resistance, but neutral. Odds are in bear side
ESTOXX: Neutral
E100:Neutral
FTSE MIB=bullish
FTSE 100=bullish
IBEX:N/A
NQ: Technically chopping near key resistance, my old ways would want to short
MC:Bearish
ES: Neutral/Bear
Global Dow:Bullish
Switzerland:Bearish
Sp500:Neutral/Bear
Russell 2000:Bear
Portugal:Neutral
Nikkei: Close to huge resistance
NDX:Ballsy
Russia:Bearish
Comp:Slightly bearish

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  #4 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
San Diego California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 127 since Oct 2015
Thanks: 23 given, 44 received

10/28 Intermarket wrapup
Sp500:Bullish
DJI: Intermediate bull
NDX: N/A
COMP: Holding level=bearish for now.
Russell 2000: Still bearish.
Nikkei 225: Still more upside left, so bullish despite important resistance on index.

Intermarket reversed:
Sp500: Continuing Bull Trend
DJI: Bullish or just pierced important level.
NDX: More bearish then previous close
COMP: Bearish
Russel 2000: Bearish
Nikkei 225: Getting to almost very bearish level.

Naked Indexes:
Later on.
Intermarket Sum: Large cap showing bull signals while tech and small cap weakening,

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  #5 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
San Diego California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 127 since Oct 2015
Thanks: 23 given, 44 received

10/31 Intermarket wrapup
Sp500:BEAR(ticked back into trendline)
DJI: BEAR (holding fib sup)
NDX: N/A
COMP: Holding level=bearish for now.
Russell 2000: Still bearish.
Nikkei 225: Still more upside left, so bullish despite important resistance on index.

Intermarket reversed:
Sp500: Still semi bull, retesting key level
DJI: Back in bear mode
NDX: More bearish then previous close
COMP: Bearish
Russel 2000: Bearish
Nikkei 225: Retest, still bull despite big resistance

Naked Indexes:
Well ladies and gentleman, thats what I get for not doing intermarket analysis yesterday. Just selloff from the open....
On the regular intermarket analysis, Sp500 and Dow just gave a bear signal after faking out on the bullside. UNLESS, 11/1 was the fakeout on bear. Going to do 11/1 post next.


With this edge, I could have shorted from the open and banked some major profit. Live and LEARN.


Last edited by emptymind; November 2nd, 2016 at 01:29 AM.
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  #6 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
San Diego California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 127 since Oct 2015
Thanks: 23 given, 44 received

11/1 Intermarket wrapup
Sp500:Bearish continuation from yesterday's signal
DJI: ^
NDX: N/A
COMP: Holding level=bearish for now.
Russell 2000: Still bearish.
Nikkei 225: Still more upside left, so bullish despite important resistance on index.

Intermarket reversed:
Sp500: 2nd Bear confirmation. More downside remaining but still above support.
DJI: Back inside important level=bearish
NDX: More bearish then previous close
COMP: Bearish
Russel 2000: Bearish
Nikkei 225: Weakening, bears getting stronger.

Naked Indexes:
Later on.

Summary: Intermarket is showing strong bear signs while on naked charts, they are not showing yet.
I'm slightly puzzled as to Nikkei as I want to heavily short, yet I need full confirmation.
The VX futures has been setting up a very clear TA picture and basically being dragged as low as possible before it goes up with convinction. This feels like smart money. Volume increases as market goes down. Today VX futures has stalled at resistance after breaking trendline resistance.

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  #7 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
San Diego California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 127 since Oct 2015
Thanks: 23 given, 44 received

11/2 Intermarket wrapup
Sp500:Bearish continuation
DJI: Bearish
NDX: N/A
COMP: Bearish
Russell 2000: Still bearish.
Nikkei 225: Still bull on intermarket although, naked chart is bearish.

Intermarket reversed:
Sp500: 2nd Bear confirmation.
DJI: Back inside important level=bearish
NDX: More bearish then previous close
COMP: Bearish
Russel 2000: Bearish
Nikkei 225: Back under resistance, getting bearish

Naked Indexes:
Later on.

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  #8 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
San Diego California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 127 since Oct 2015
Thanks: 23 given, 44 received

11/7 Intermarket wrapup
Sp500:Neutral. Somewhat on last brink of support. Also traded back below trendline
DJI: BULLISH
NDX: N/A
COMP: Still Bearish
Russell 2000: Still bearish.
Nikkei 225: Still bull on intermarket although, naked chart is bearish.

Intermarket reversed:
Sp500: Back to bull.....
DJI: Back above important area=bull
NDX: N/A
COMP: Bearish
Russel 2000: Bearish
Nikkei 225: Back under resistance, getting bearish

Naked Indexes:
Later on.

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  #9 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
San Diego California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 127 since Oct 2015
Thanks: 23 given, 44 received

11/8 Intermarket wrapup
Sp500:More confirmation of bull
DJI: BULLISH falling to last level for bears.
NDX: N/A
COMP: Still Bearish, on last brink of support for bears.
Russell 2000: Still bearish.
Nikkei 225: Still bull on intermarket although, naked chart is bearish.

Intermarket reversed:
Sp500: Bullish
DJI: Bullish
NDX: Possible short level
COMP: Bearish
Russel 2000: Bearish. Possible reshort level
Nikkei 225: Back under resistance, getting bearish

Naked Indexes:
Later on.

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  #10 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
San Diego California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
Posts: 127 since Oct 2015
Thanks: 23 given, 44 received


11/9 Post Election Intermarket wrapup
Sp500:More confirmation of bull from yesterday. Strong close.
DJI: BULLISH, confirmation from yesterdays close.
NDX: N/A
COMP: Was on the last brink of support yesterday. Today we closed below it=BULLISH
Russell 2000: Intermediate N/A changed from bearish.
Nikkei 225: Still intermediate bear trend.

Intermarket reversed:
Sp500: Bullish. However at major resistance from 2000. However targets not met based on setup
DJI: Bullish
NDX: Reached intermediate bull target
COMP: Turned bullish, however reached intermediate target.
Russel 2000: Still bearish
Nikkei 225: Still bearish. More bearish than yesterday

Naked Indexes:
Later on.

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