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Only major news today is ISM manufacturing @ 10 am
-Price ended the year with a sharp drop, but managed to bounce off of the 4850 support
-Price bounced off 4850 twice in December; Once on 12/9 and again on 12/11
-ADR 47.38, ETH VWAP 4896, W-VWAP: 4896, M-VWAP:4894, ON VAL:4896
-4895-4896 Seems to be very important area for today
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I have never traded on the first trading day of the year. I will trade SIM today and probably the rest of the week. No need to sacrifice unnecessary capital. There is a long year ahead, plenty of time to make some money..
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-Long bias for today, Initially. I dont really care what happens after 11 a.m. since i am usually done trading by that time
-Will see how price reacts at open around 4896-4890 area
-I may be long around 4890 with a target around 4930
So just to summarize: On the trade above I made about 13.5 points, Then i got greedy and kept on trading. It was more of a practice thing since I was in SIM. But I did try and keep the trades realistic. Honestly, If it was a live trade I would have taken my 13.5 points and called it a day.
I ended up taking 3 consecutive losing trades with very tight stops, anticipating a push upward until finally I got my push and ended the day UP 15+ points.
Now I'll get to work and hope you all make some good money today !!!!!
"It's not about being right or wrong, it's about how much money you make when you're right, and how much you don't lose when you're wrong"
Price never came down to my level, but it did go up to my target and stayed up there for a while .... I couldn't read price after that. I got chopped up all morning... took more trades than usual. about 6 trades in total.
Something is wrong with the JING software i have. I am going to have to try something else or download it again.. After a single screenshot , I have to close it and restart it
Price will probably chop until FOMC minutes.
Good Luck to all !!!!
"It's not about being right or wrong, it's about how much money you make when you're right, and how much you don't lose when you're wrong"
I don't have time today to post everything I wrote in my journal, but I will try my best for accountability purposes. Also, my Jing isn't working properly but it turns out windows has a snipping tool I was able to use until I have time to figure out what else I can do.
So price never came down to my interest area, but I did get short at 4940 ish.. Tight stop because I wasnt very convinced of a move downward for this morning. Of course I was stopped out @ -3.5 points.
After that, Volume and price just died.. I took one trade which did not go anywhere. So after like 15-20 of barely any movement and some news was coming out, I exited with like +1 or 1.5 points. By this time Jing was acting up, so screen shots are now limited.
Basically this id what price was doing:
After the MFG index news came out I took another (3rd) trade , anticipating a strong move, But again the market just stalled and price was ranging so I took my few points profit..
Major News already out this morning.Most looking better than expected.
Factory orders @ 10:00 am est
Baker Hughes rig count , I believe this afternoon Fed member Evans speaks @ 12:15
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-Yesterdays price broke above pivot range and ended about 35 points higher
-Price is above todays pivot range and above ON VAL area
-I think US markets are feeling bullish , for now. Looking for that 5000 on NQ ????
-Most news this week has been positive
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-I am going to expect a quick press down at open, but not very much. I believe there's a lot of buyers in the market today
-Will patiently watch price at opening range and make a decision if the signs are present
-Looking for a long position somewhere around 4962-4956 area with an initial target of 4980. But I will definitely watch price around 4975 (R1)
"It's not about being right or wrong, it's about how much money you make when you're right, and how much you don't lose when you're wrong"
Somehow I saved over my first entry's screenshot, But it doesn't matter because it was a straight loser. My initial area of interest of 4956-4962 was a little too early. I got in at 4960 and was stopped out 5 points. The force of the move made me second guess my original thesis, but then I just figured maybe I bought too soon. I re-evaluated and positioned myself long again at 4954.25.
I still wanted my original target of 4980, but around OR I was getting too much resistance. The initial 5 point loss placed a bit of fear in me. At this point if I flatten I would be up the 5 points I lost PLUS another 10 points (which is not a bad goal for the day, at least for me)
After a bit of contemplation, I thought i would buy again just above VWAP.. I was stopped out because my stop was way too tight. Price broke below VWAP, I saw TICK gain some strength, so I figured hey why not? Long again @ 4960 for a quick scalp of 7 points.
Overall I took 4 trades. 2 losers 2 winners, but the winners far outweighed the losers. As I prepare this post price actually went up to my initial target and the failed right above it .Original target of 4890, price failed at 48-982.75..
So what did I leave on the table??? Like 11 points. I could have just placed a trailing stop or moved my stop slowly and caught some more of the action.
I maintained a clear head throughout the trading session. Actually I maintained a clear head throughout the week.
Getting better at reading market direction and price action. Will continue to post for accountability. At first it was a little embarrassing to post a theory and then have the total opposite happen, but to tell you the truth, I don't care !!!! I post all this to keep myself accountable, just in case anyone of "the experts" want to help with advice, and for future newbie traders who can use my experience to learn something and better their trading. If I am wrong then I am wrong... It is all part of the learning experience.
Good Luck too all !!!
"It's not about being right or wrong, it's about how much money you make when you're right, and how much you don't lose when you're wrong"
