Vision For Trading - Work In Progress
|November 5th, 2016, 01:31 AM||#21 (permalink)|
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkOrSwim, Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: TDA, TOS, NT
Favorite Futures: ES, NG, CL, SI, , DX
Posts: 26 since Sep 2016
Thanks: 13 given, 23 received
11-4-2016 End Of Week Wrap Up
Terrible Week. Terrible Trades.
Facing the choices I made earlier last week, I closed out my loosing positions that were continuing to loose and drag down my stock and options account 1.5% or 2.5% per day. I should have closed them out much sooner when they didn't perform as I had thought. I mean, what clearly happened is I bought tops and hoped that I was right and that it would continue up...but they didn't...GPRO and UA went far far, from up. I was positioned the entire wrong direction on both trades from the beginning and somehow...didn't realize it until it was to late, expecting a pre-earnings rally as UA had done before, which didn't occur. I lacked the discipline to close the trade, and decided to ride it out, which was the worst thing I could possibly do. A week ago I had a chance to sell GPRO and get out for a $2,000 loss on position, but I didn't take it. But this week, I closed the position right before earnings at $12.20. So where I should have covered if I were short. And a near %5 loss overall. Same for UA, held into earnings, had a chance to close it out....right at the release...pre-market for a $1500 Gain. Since initial move was up, I thought it would recover to that point...and it didn't. I was watching this from the trading app on my phone. I did not give the release the respect it deserved and paid dearly for it. That was the point to sell and get out make a profit.
I need to honestly re-evaluate my trading plan, and only enter into trades that I have honestly planned out. I bought into GPRO since I bought in before Karma announcement and made some money from the long side. Re-entered and got trapped in, and leveraged down and got back out with more money. I thought I could do it again, so when it didn't bounce with in the time frame I had planned...and it broke an important trendline and did not regain it...I should have simply closed the trade. But I didn't. I leveraged down, sure it would reverse...but it didn't. So I leveraged more by selling puts and buying calls...and it still didn't reverse. Though I did have a chance to close everything out on more than one occasion. Prob 2 or 3 times for not a terrible loss. Then it broke down entirely. So right before earnings, I started to consider the fact that hey...maybe I'm wrong. Ya Think? Nah.....I almost held this POS trade right into earnings I tell you. I mean...They halted Trading on this one right after the release...OMFG.
This was clearly, not a beat, and not just a regular miss...it was and EPIC Miss. So it opened at $9.00 I was glad that I sold out of it at $12.20. But I didn't buy back in at $9.30 I was sick on it. But there was a good trade there. Had I been free and Clear of it days ago, I might have been able to take that opportunity, but having been so recently bound to a loser for so long, I couldn't even fathom the thought of reentering. Nor could I resale it today when it went up to $12.50 at mid day, firmly closing the gap and then diving back down a full $1.00. There were ample opportunites to make money with it but I couldn't take it, because I tried to play that move so hard that I bought into it weeks ago. So I thought it would jump on earnings, and it did...from $9.00 to $12.50....I just missed the move, because I was in it from $15.54. The trade for this was just completely backwards and I don't know why I don't see that from the beginning. I was selling my longs at $16.50 and $17.00. Had I the foresight to just sell again...and again, I would have it. But when I see a strong move up, I want to be in it. I want to get that profit...but I"m jumping in long and maybe getting a scalp, When I should be selling it, and selling it again.
I guess it's emotional or sub-conscious from here what came next, but what had been working over the past 2 weeks in my futures trading was just gone this week. I would get in trades and be up, but not close them out since I thought they would continue to move in my direction "and make back some of the losses?"...but they didn't and I sold them out for a stop above break-even, or let some of them turn into losses.
This was a huge week filled with opportunity, but I couldn't take them or just went the wrong way entirely.
Right when I thought things were getting better.
Why did this happen?
The only thing that I can think of is just 2 Big loosing trades UA and GPRO effected me and set me in motion for trying harder to make those losses back right away. I wasn't satisfied with what the market was prepared to give me at the time, usually a very short time. Like get in and in an hour or two be up $400-$850 on a 3 Contract Trade...and then let it turn entirely against me where I sold it out at $150. Then missed a re-entry at a lower level and ultimate move in my direction.
I missed a move in SI this week where I was in at the bottom and got out with 6 Ticks and as soon as I sold out it went up over 150. This really sends me into a panic....why can't I hang onto these winners, but I can hold losers below the surface of the earth till death do us part? Sub-consciously am I sabotaging myself? Because that is what it felt like this week.
Why? I believe it was the emotional stress of 2 Big Losses. How I mis-managed these trades effected the rest of my decisions I was making due to trying to make these losses back. Making it okay to keep these positions open...but it just wasn't working out. The profits I was making...weren't enough...so I wasn't taking them, I was waiting for a little more...a little more...and it wasn't there, and what profit I had, turned against me...and it's hard for me to take a lesser amount.....so if I get out I have to set a stop a few ticks above breakeven. If I don't set a stop there...it's even harder for me to get out once it turns entirely against me. Then I've been adding, and that has not been working since I've been adding to soon, to many and then I'm just screwed and screwed again, since I can't manage to let a 3-5 contract trade move against me very much I have to close it out for however far I've let it get into me.
For instance the move in CL today...down to new lows $43.20 area, I bought into 2 $46 calls by limit order and even 1 contract. Sold the contract right away for $70, and took a break to the restroom. When I returned I was up $480 on the calls, but I didn't sell them. I held them and bought more even when it started pulling back. I mean CL was down .70 cents and now it was near positive on the day. This was going through the roof right? No. It wasn't. But I bought more calls when it pulled back. Then I was down. Just in about 30 mins, I had ruined this trade. I mean really? How do you go from making money to losing just like that? I must admit, the thought entered my mind, that I should buy Puts when it was up there...but I didn't. I didn't sell anything. I just sat there...and thought about how much higher it was gonna go. So I lost about $1200 on this trade when it reversed entirely and I was long 3 contracts, and 6 calls. Then I just kept messing with it...trying to make it back...trying to jump back in....and losing there too. At this point, I honestly think I was trading out of frustration and lost control.
All of this is just embarrassing and I hate to write about it, but somehow, if I don't I'm more concerned I will repeat this behavior. It is destructive and has no place in my trading plan.
Looking to get back on track next week. I have an active plan of action that began this week with closing out the losers.
That part is behind me now, and Now I have to move forward with what is working during these market conditions.
Closed out most long equity positions. Long Equity or ETF positions are covered by short calls. Long UVXY Trade will need to be managed next week, buy buying PUTS into spikes, possibly Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
Buying UVXY Calls on volatility weakness and selling them into volatility worked well for me today and allowed me to make it a break-even day on my Futures account even with the poor CL Trade.
SPY Puts bought at the market high and sold at the lows near close were profitable in short duration. Buy SPY puts, weekly, they are expensive, but if down they get way more expensive. Buy calls into weakness...preset limit orders to get filled...don't worry about these, set prices low.
I have written this to refer back to. During times of question or stress. I may edit or add additional posts to clarify and refine this into next week.