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So we gapped up after Treasuries moved higher over night. Bund got down to the key area 40-45 and held. Looks like a base is built now and I think we can get up to the monthly vwap at 164.30 by EOD tomorrow.
Alternatively, we continue down, 40-50 a good area to sell from below, as is 20-10.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Done nothing in Bund so far today. You can see how tight the range is, it is building for its next move. I am still leaning higher. Break above 82 will confirm my upside hypo. Downside hypo's back in play below 45.
It's extremely important to know when NOT to trade. Only yesterday my risk manager was telling me how much traders struggle during slow markets. Save the bullets!
Thanks for putting this journal online. I also trade the FGBL from the UK with a similar methodology. Like you not done any trades so far today, though the .72 ledge area has been interesting.
In your opinion, do you think traders struggle in slow markets because they are impatient or because the risk reward is lower so they make less from their winners? Or perhaps you have another explanation.
No problem, I encourage any other FGBL traders to join in the discussion.
As for slow markets, I think its a combination of things. Impatience and lower RR plays a part for sure. Getting sucked into trades / paying up/down for entry can cause you issues. Once you are down in a slow market its really easy to try and chase the market / try and make your loss back, and this is often the worst market to do that in.
I think the opportunities are still here though, you just have to be patient and have conviction.
I just bought 58's and scratched as this isn't behaving right. If LOD breaks im flipping bearish. Range is low right now so we should get some expansion this PM.
Just to expand on the "this isn't behaving right phrase":
Got 5/6 ticks in profit and it came back on me very quick on the CBOT open. There is also some data 13:30 so market usually things. Watching the ladder it feels like something is going on. It could roof up from here, but I'm not sure. It has held this area 3 times already.
And there it is. Good scratch, market squeezed down to 50 and ramped straight back up. Its starting to tick a bit now so hopefully we get out of this range, I don't mind which way as long as it moves!!
That was a decent last few hours! Finally started breaking higher, but so much size absorbing the whole way up...only managed to expand 16 ticks. No pullback for longs to get on board, they all ended up buying on the pullback from HOD, around 90, which was too high IMO. Managed to sell there and cover at 80.
Looks like longs puking into the cash close here, I think this will probably drift back up now.
The longside hypo didn't play out as I expected, I thought we would push way further than that, to 164.20/30 area as I said previously. Maybe it will do it tomorrow. 600k traded in such a tight range, and not much going on.
Bought ZB at 230, that area is been great today. Noticed it was drifting back down into that area as I was about to wrap up for the day. Nice clean bounce. 240-210 area in ZB is critical, as is 025/020 in ZN. That is helping me with my bullish bund bias too
Slow open today. Relative volume of bund dropping fast. Tplex off its highs overnight, on the good Chinese CPI data. Very mixed picture technically. I am sitting tight right now, 45 up to 80 is pretty much a chop zone, so expect further balance in here, look to play reversion to the VWAP. When we breakout it will be obvious and should be on volume. May not happen till the US data this PM.
Shame if you have stopped the journal as always interested in the bund market- though the number of opportunities per day seems to have reduced considerably from when I was trading it a few years back.
