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Some people are of the opinion that small caps are a leading indicator, and that is what the Russell is. But these aren’t normal market conditions and the DOW and SPX/ES are in a different pattern compared to the NQ and the TF. So you need to fall back on some good old fashioned deductive reasoning.
Today was a gap and go and they were out to squeeze all the weak hands out of yesterday’s shorts. The TF is the thinnest of the indexes, so in most cases it will fall off the hardest when the bid disappears. Most of the people that rode it up from last night or this morning are going to start exiting before lunch or near the close. You watch that and look for the weakness to show its hand, then to look to get in. Not many people are around to trade later in the day.
Also, this trade took a while to develop. Not many people have the stones to hold a position for 45 mins to 2 hours just to see if it will work, let alone hold it another hour and forty-five to get to the target.
I’m not usually big on fading moves, usually it is a crap shoot trade. But they aren’t giving us any real trends to trade lately so you take what you can get.
If this doesn't work out, I will play as if it is a down trending day. I do not think we will get a trend day prior to Non-Farm but who knows these days.....
