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-Bull day volume stronger than bears (bullish)
-Price entering back into the summer's range area.
-Testing previous support
-Above YTD +1SD
30 Minute:
-Pivot, M-VWAP, and W-VWAP all in same area for support
-W-VWAP still holding up.
Overall Thesis:
-We "chop" in the ON range (32-51 area)
-I think that we are around the low for the day
Trade Thesis:
-My AoI is 36-32.
-We have a bunch of support around here and I think that this is the low of day, so might as well buy it up.
-If it fails, well, I take a couple point dinger. If it wins, I steal +20 points per contract. Asymmetrical returns anyone?
I am already done for the day. Man. I was sloppy again!
I ended positive, but it was not a fun day.
Anyways, here is my chart (Remember, I do not use Renko charts, I just use them to better display my trading to you):
Trade #1:
-Played my thesis.
-I took some heat, but ended up getting a nice position built (4 lots total)
-I scaled 2 lots out for a nice 42 ticks b
-I added 2 more lots once it came back down.
-Ended up going flat for -24 ticks
Trade #2:
-This is where I got sloppy
-I wanted to take another shot at my long thesis
-FOMO trade more or less
- Took a bad beat on this
-I was punished for ignorance
Net Trade PnL: -30 ticks
Net Day PnL: -12 ticks
Trade #3:
-I saw the bearishness in the market
-Realised that yesterday was more of a dead cat bounce than anything.
-Saw other reasons for bearishness
-Took the short
-Made decent profit on it
Net Trade PnL: +46 ticks
Net Day PnL: +34 ticks
It was a very rough ~$400 (post-commissions).
I am not sure why, but with the returned volatility, I have made more FOMO trades than the rest of summer combined!
Anyways, I better get some homework done before class
-Down volume is once again heavier than the up volume.
-Looks like Monday was a dead-cat bounce
-Small ON range compared to the past few days.
-May see a range day?
30-Minute:
-W-VWAP holding market down ON and yesterday
-S1 held yesterday signaling lack of OTF players
-As @choke35 pointed out, OTF was lacking yesterday if you looked at OI and volume
What this shows me is that yesterday was mainly retail traders getting stopped on their longs and that a move up from here would be the max-pain direction. So, I am unsure what I want to do right now, but here is my preliminary thoughts:
Market Thesis:
-We range between ~11 and ~26
-We go lower at open, then rip higher
Trade Thesis:
-Play the short side around W-VWAP if we pop at the open
-Play long around Y-Low if we drop at the open.
-Ideally we go down at the open.
If you haven't noticed, I do not "need" my thesis to be right. I have to know when it is and when it isn't and adapt from there.
I want those that read this journal to realise that they don't need to trade 10 contracts to make a living while trading. Look at some of my previous days! I only trade a 2 lot position for almost $1000. You don't need to trade a ton of lots to make money.
Like right now, sitting on $500 with 2 contracts only.
I will post daily recap later once I am done trading.
EDIT:
I flattened one contract prior to the oil report. What a mistake that was
23 ticks in the bank so far. One lot still on. Sitting at +36 ticks on it. I am letting this one ride till recent high area (~55)
I am not going to annotate on this chart just because it won't make much sense.
Quick summary of what happened:
-I got short at the beginning of day, made a little bit.
-Then I started playing the long side. Lost a lot. And won it mostly back.
-It would be lots of effort to describe what happened today
I'm sorry for the lackluster recap! I hope tomorrow is a better day!
I want you all to see that no one is a perfect trader! I mess up all the time! Don't kick yourself too hard when you mess up, it happens. What you need to do is learn from it!
