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How I Trade For a Living
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How I Trade For a Living

  #61 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Duluth MN
 
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I had to cut it short. I can't get all of my thoughts on asymmetric returns in one post.

However, I wanted to get your thoughts on something.

I want to prove that ANYONE can do this profitably if they learn the right stuff.

So, my thoughts are is that I will create a second journal where I trade a commoner's system (MA's, fibs, etc.) and try to do so profitably. I would base it all on this belief of asymmetric returns.

If I was profitable using something that people have been failing with, then it will settle that it CAN be done.

I would have to figure out how I would go about doing such a thing, but I think it would be interesting.

I would do it in SIM mode however.


So, would you like something like this?

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  #62 (permalink)
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.
rocksolid68 View Post
I will try to sum this all up with one quote from Tiger (paraphrased):

"People worry too much on maximizing chances of profitable trades, and far too little on maximizing profitable trades."

Ride your winners. You just beat the markets, why not let it pay you what you deserve?

(Extra Tiger quote for those interested)

https://futures.io/elite-circle/13452-elite-es-s-p-500-futures-contract-sp500-spoo-nalysis-1135.html#post463651

If you don't mind, I would add the following to your post.

The ride your winners part always reminds me of Old Partridge from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator:


Quoting 
My dear boy, said old Partridge, in great distress my dear boy, if I sold that stock now Id lose my position; and then where would I be?

Quite often, we do not get that many chances at building up a decent position without being stopped out. In my view, your odds of being stopped out are highest when a) you just entered the trade since the trade still needs to start working and, b) the points where you add to a trade.

When you add to a trade while it goes against you, you are adding risk at the same time as you are getting closer to the capitulation or stop point. If you are adding as a trade goes in your favour, you are increases your average price, and out of necessity need to raise your stop to control risk. In both cases, both of these actions mean that the market price is now closer to the stop-loss price.

Once a position has been built up, whenever it moves in your favour, the odds of being stopped out decrease. Once you have a decent cushion, pullbacks do not matter too much as long as the trend continues. It means you can sit and watch the position and avoid being chopped up by the noise. However, allow me to add the following: "The trend is your friend until the end, when it bends." Unless you have a good way to exit trades, then you will just have the pleasure of watching large profits evaporate.

Unfortunately this part of the equation is much harder to get "right" than building up the position. I most definitely do not have the answer to this part and it all seems to be a rather large balancing act. Scaling out reduces the sting somewhat if it goes against you, but when a monster trade comes along, you always run the risk of not making enough relative to what's on offer.

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  #63 (permalink)
Market student
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rocksolid68 View Post

I would do it in SIM mode however.


So, would you like something like this?

Friend, with all respect but i think that at least half of FIO members are demo-soroses here. I don't want to tell you what you should do but IMHO untill you don't have real money on stake and you internal demons of greed, fear and hope flying about your head any demo trading based on any theory is demo-bullshit not worth to spend time neither for performing nor for reading and following. Anyway it's my own opinion. So probably the majority will not agree with me. Peace

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Bite small, run fast!
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  #64 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
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citikot View Post
... untill you don't have real money on stake and you internal demons of greed, fear and hope flying about your head any demo trading based on any theory is demo-bullshit not worth to spend time neither for performing nor for reading and following. [/URL]

well..as already mentioned we all know how to place orders and exit trades. Point of this is to show that when rules are followed trading can be profitable. It is up to you to tame your demons.

I have trading Journal here, and stopped updating it because I had some other things in life to take care of. BUT I did continued following system (not placing realtime trades, as opposed when I was posting it here), and in coming week/weekend I plan to make update.

Still with me or without me, my trading system (rules) made money, so that answers question can it be done.

I had a friend who said to pass signals to him, on realtime basis, we traded for 2 months (intraday 30min charts), system was nicely profitable, and my friend collected losses. How come? From about 300 trades, he took only about 150. And then was blaming me and system for his failure.

Sim or Real account doesn't really matter if you are not able to have belief in you and what you are doing.

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  #65 (permalink)
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Caerus View Post
It is up to you to tame your demons.



Sim or Real account doesn't really matter if you are not able to have belief in you and what you are doing.


They say " trading is simple but not easy". There are hundreds of profitable trading systems but who follows them? There are 10000 lightyears between beliefs and proper actions. And demons influence on action and result. Why two traders in one propshop trained according one traning program and have one set of rules have different results? Becuase of demons That's why I mean that attempt to proove something in trading on SIM is useless. "Show me money"

Bite small, run fast!
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  #66 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
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citikot View Post
They say " trading is simple but not easy". There are hundreds of profitable trading systems but who follows them? There are 10000 lightyears between beliefs and proper actions. And demons influence on action and result. Why two traders in one propshop trained according one traning program and have one set of rules have different results? Becuase of demons That's why I mean that attempt to proove something in trading on SIM is useless. "Show me money"

not attempting to hijack this thread...

Trading is simply about finding profitable set of rules, which suits your personality as much as possible (your goals, screen time, risk tolerance...etc).

If you think that rocksolid68 will not be able to follow his trading plan, so what difference to you makes if he traded Sim or Real acc.

Let people have their journals and show what they are doing and how they succeeded finding what works for them...learn from it or not, choice is always ours...

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  #67 (permalink)
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The topicstarter asked the question to the public. I just answered what i think about his question. That's it.

Sent from my ASUS_Z007 using futures.io mobile app

Bite small, run fast!
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  #68 (permalink)
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rocksolid68 View Post
I had to cut it short. I can't get all of my thoughts on asymmetric returns in one post.

However, I wanted to get your thoughts on something.

I want to prove that ANYONE can do this profitably if they learn the right stuff.

So, my thoughts are is that I will create a second journal where I trade a commoner's system (MA's, fibs, etc.) and try to do so profitably. I would base it all on this belief of asymmetric returns.

If I was profitable using something that people have been failing with, then it will settle that it CAN be done.

I would have to figure out how I would go about doing such a thing, but I think it would be interesting.

I would do it in SIM mode however.


So, would you like something like this?


citikot View Post
Friend, with all respect but i think that at least half of FIO members are demo-soroses here.

Alex, I am not going to tell you what you should do with your money. And certainly not that you should risk any of it just for the sake of making a point for others' (possible) benefit.

But we do all know that if there is nothing at stake, it is not trading. I'm not talking about your internal demons, I'm just talking about it being different if something about it is real. Proving a point is not likely real enough, and the point will not actually be proven.

So I think that if you wanted to show that any "method" can be traded profitably, it should be with real trading. Meaning, not SIM.

(I also think, respectfully, that you would be out of your mind to do that. )

Also, your offer is to take something, MA's or whatever, use it just like the people who are failing use it, and show how, with trade management, it can be made to work. Believe me, you will not be taking "something that people have been failing with", because you will only take your idea of what an MA (or whatever) system would be. There are people who are trying, and failing, with their MA's, or whatever, and you are not going to be using the system they are trying to use -- you can't.... If we got 20 FIO members in a room who used what they said is all the same "system," and had them show us what they actually do, we would find 25 totally different "systems," and none of them would agree with any of the others about the true way to do MA's, or fibs, or anything else.

(Plus, you probably would just convince people that what they would see as your special MA signals are the "right way," thereby creating another monster and not conveying your point at all. )

If you just keep showing and talking about the trades you do actually take, and that you believe in, it probably will do more good than showing play trades that you plainly don't.

Not a criticism, just a suggestion.

Bob.

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  #69 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Wow! What a discussion!

I believe that the general consensus is that I should NOT create the second journal.

I just don't want people to think that the only way to trade successfully is with VWAP's and pivots and such. I want to show that that is what I use and I find value in.

You as a trader need to find something you truly believe in, have confidence, and take that trade and aim for asymmetrical returns.

Screen time is the best way to grow confidence.

Stop changing stuff up, and stick with it. People add and remove indicators every day. Don't. You are only hindering yourself.

Thank you for all your input! I appreciate it! Even those that disagreed were very civil, so thank you!


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  #70 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Remember what I was saying about asymmetrical returns?

This is why you need to have them. I picked the market bias correctly yesterday, yet look how it turned out for me.

+67 ticks.

Look at my exits compared to the High of day.

120 ticks left on the table. That hurts to see

Focus on holding your winners. It isn't the small winners that make us profitable traders, but the long wins that buff up our account.

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