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How I Trade For a Living
Started:August 30th, 2016 (10:48 AM) by rocksolid68 Views / Replies:48,691 / 662
Last Reply:November 7th, 2016 (02:55 PM) Attachments:94

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How I Trade For a Living

Old September 7th, 2016, 03:24 PM   #31 (permalink)
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IzhakHaim View Post
"Then in the last week before the are done selling cookies, they go on sale!!!"

Let me know when is the last week of the STOCK/FUTURES/ETF etc. before no more selling so I know to pay sale's price....

Easy to do with cookies since you KNOW when the season is over...

Izhak, it was a rhetorical scenario. A hypothetical, if you will. His point is valid. Don't start with your nonsense again. You remember what happened the last time you did. Tone yourself down. I toned myself down, and I now better know my boundaries on what I can and should say.

Read through rocksolids's scenario again, or many times, to see his point. As many times as you need. Don't just knee-jerk with some poo-poo without thinking it through.

P.S. An analogy! That's it! Ug.


Last edited by HoopyTrading; September 7th, 2016 at 03:32 PM. Reason: Analogy
     
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Old September 7th, 2016, 03:43 PM   #32 (permalink)
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I know, only want to point out that this analogy is not in place.
With the cookies, or ocean waves, we know for sure direction and time for up and down. Any "for sure" re financial products is pure speculations and some probabilities.

     
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Old September 7th, 2016, 04:37 PM   #33 (permalink)
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IzhakHaim View Post
I know, only want to point out that this analogy is not in place.
With the cookies, or ocean waves, we know for sure direction and time for up and down. Any "for sure" re financial products is pure speculations and some probabilities.

Hey @IzhakHaim,

Like @HoopyTrading said, it was but an analogy. But since you are not content with it, shall I try to elaborate?

You mention that my analogy is "not in place" because we never know when the market is going to turn. You are right, we do not know where it is going to turn.

However, you are wrong about my analogy. Go back and read the entire post. I use a certain word quite a bit in my entire post: confident.

Regarding my "Y-Close" fading example, I never said that the market was FOR SURE going to 2025, however, I said I was confident that it would.

In my analogy, the changing of season was a metaphor for my market bias. If you are not confident in your thesis, you should't take a trade.

If I was not confident that I could sell those cookies off-season for a profit, I wouldn't have bought 30 boxes.

Same goes for trading. If you are not confident in your thesis, you should not take that trade.

I understand that being confident in your thesis doesn't mean that it will be a profitable one, but what being confident in your thesis does do, is allow you to correctly manage your trade and money.

Nothing is for sure, yes, but if you are not confident in cookie prices going up, don't buy them.

EDIT: I also understand that others, such as yourself may have differing views on things. I am not forcing my thoughts on to anyone. I am providing my thoughts and beliefs on this wonderful forum for those that want to read it. Does everyone want to know what Alex thinks? Of course not! That is why you all have a choice whether or not you prescribe to my thoughts and beliefs. You don't even have to agree with everything I say! You can come here and read 3 of my posts and disagree with two of them, but hey, you now have another post-worth of knowledge that you have accepted into your mind. So, do as you wish! All I can do is provide what I feel may be valuable to you all. It is up to you to filter through everything and take it for what it is worth. I wish the best for everyone, even those that disagree with me.

This message is not just for you, @IzhakHaim, but for all readers, so do not take it personally!


Last edited by rocksolid68; September 7th, 2016 at 04:47 PM.
     
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Old September 7th, 2016, 04:57 PM   #34 (permalink)
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rocksolid68 View Post
... I wish the best for everyone,...

As a quick side note, I do not believe you on that statement. I am now craving, like really bad, Girl Scout cookies. Like, a LOT of them. This is not fair. So if you really wished us best, you would have not used cookies in your analogy. *shakes fist at rocksolid* Damn you!

Rofl. Sorry, being silly in your journal. I'm always trying to have a bit of levity. Maybe one day I'll chase you with NYC pizza when I get my own journal back on track.

But seriously, a nice tactful response by you to "naysayers" out there. Kudos man.

K, we now return to the regularly-scheduled journal already in progress. Arg. Sorry!


Last edited by HoopyTrading; September 7th, 2016 at 05:06 PM.
     
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Old September 7th, 2016, 07:01 PM   #35 (permalink)
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moofty View Post
Hey Alex,
Thanks for the very informative post.
Do you have anything interesting on your correlation charts? this something i have not looked into.....yet.

Hey @moofty, sorry for the delayed reply.

I had been meaning to reply sooner, but alas..

So, correlations! Longer-term correlations are something that someone on FIO should do a webinar on... hint hint @tigertrader....

I am not 100% sure what you are asking, so forgive me if this does not provide the answer you hope for! Here you go:
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So, as you saw this morning, I was bullish. I was buying as the market was down. I was confident I was correct this morning because of these correlations.

Bonds, gold, and USD were all pointing towards a very bullish ES today, yet, the ES was lower in the morning. Weird huh?

Crude oil was down as well. Crude oil was dictating the ES a fair amount today. So, when CL finally caught a pop higher, I knew ES was already primed for a break higher, so I was ready.

Summary:
-Bonds, gold, and USD all looked bullish for ES
-Waited for oil to release its bear grip on ES

     
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Old September 7th, 2016, 08:49 PM   #36 (permalink)
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Overall question on strategy and your turning point

Hi Alex
Your intro says quite young.. not sure what that means.. but you share a wealth of info and seem to be well on your way to mastering this ... so wanted to ask u

So first THANK YOU for all your insight (even if u are really young)

a) did u post somewhere your strategy or charts or indicators on how u take trades? would be interesting to at least get a glimpse IF you would like to share

b) What would u say were some of your turning points to you becoming a successful trader? and i am assuming that means full time?

regards
J

     
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Old September 8th, 2016, 10:18 AM   #37 (permalink)
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@moofty, sorry for the delayed reply.


Thanks , great explanation I will definitely start looking into this when I start trading the ES.
Do you see any advantage in using correlations if you were trading the CL or does it have a mind of its own?

     
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Old September 8th, 2016, 10:31 AM   #38 (permalink)
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jokertrader View Post
Hi Alex
Your intro says quite young.. not sure what that means.. but you share a wealth of info and seem to be well on your way to mastering this ... so wanted to ask u

So first THANK YOU for all your insight (even if u are really young)

a) did u post somewhere your strategy or charts or indicators on how u take trades? would be interesting to at least get a glimpse IF you would like to share

b) What would u say were some of your turning points to you becoming a successful trader? and i am assuming that means full time?

regards
J

Hey @jokertrader, thanks for stopping in.

As far as age goes, I do not think that it would be fair to discount intuition and knowledge for youth.

As Vladimir Lenin said, "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen."

Sure, I wasn't a pit trader that has been in the business since the 90's, but what I am is a trader that has dedicated his life to learning this stuff for the years that I have been exposed to it.

When I am at school, what was I doing? Reading about the Fed's minutes and how their words can affect the market.
I am at home laying in bed and I end up staying up till 1:00 am reading a book about how the 1929 crash created more millionaires than ever before in history. Heck, Colonel Sander's started serving fried chicken at that time.
When I am driving, I am listening to podcasts about the market or interviews with traders.
When I am eating breakfast, guess what I was doing? Reading. When I am at the desk, I am grinding through FIO, charts, and readings. I was reading PDF's from JP Morgan about cross-asset allocation and the business cycle.

What I am trying to say is that even though I am young, I may have spent more time with this stuff than some of you have spent in your lifetime. Most of you have families, a job, and other priorities. You can only dedicate a little bit of time to this. Of course some of you are just as crazy as me

As far as how I take trades is going to have to be a different post. It is not a simple subject

Major turning points? Getting rid of the clutter, being consistent, stop blaming everything else for your failure, and learning how to manage trades.

More on these things later.

     
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Old September 8th, 2016, 10:35 AM   #39 (permalink)
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moofty View Post
@moofty, sorry for the delayed reply.


Thanks , great explanation I will definitely start looking into this when I start trading the ES.
Do you see any advantage in using correlations if you were trading the CL or does it have a mind of its own?

The problem with CL is that it is its own beast. CL is dictated by the USD, however, CL is dictated by supply and demand. It is a commodity, right?

But the key is realizing that the supply and demand of the commodity is all a matter of perception.

Oil supplies are down? Who cares, this thing is going to tank. "CL down 4% on the day on speculation of Iran not decreasing output"

CL is dictated by news and supply/demand speculation more than most other things you can trade. I think that for most beginning traders, ES is the best route. CL is too crazy for most beginners.

I hope this helps

     
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Old September 8th, 2016, 10:38 AM   #40 (permalink)
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No Pre-Market Analysis today!

ECB is talking and contract roll-over day. I do not want to trade today.

I wish the best for everyone that is though

     
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