Izhak, it was a rhetorical scenario. A hypothetical, if you will. His point is valid. Don't start with your nonsense again. You remember what happened the last time you did. Tone yourself down. I toned myself down, and I now better know my boundaries on what I can and should say.
Read through rocksolids's scenario again, or many times, to see his point. As many times as you need. Don't just knee-jerk with some poo-poo without thinking it through.
P.S. An analogy! That's it! Ug.
Last edited by HoopyTrading; September 7th, 2016 at 02:32 PM.
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I know, only want to point out that this analogy is not in place.
With the cookies, or ocean waves, we know for sure direction and time for up and down. Any "for sure" re financial products is pure speculations and some probabilities.
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Like @HoopyTrading said, it was but an analogy. But since you are not content with it, shall I try to elaborate?
You mention that my analogy is "not in place" because we never know when the market is going to turn. You are right, we do not know where it is going to turn.
However, you are wrong about my analogy. Go back and read the entire post. I use a certain word quite a bit in my entire post: confident.
Regarding my "Y-Close" fading example, I never said that the market was FOR SURE going to 2025, however, I said I was confident that it would.
In my analogy, the changing of season was a metaphor for my market bias. If you are not confident in your thesis, you should't take a trade.
If I was not confident that I could sell those cookies off-season for a profit, I wouldn't have bought 30 boxes.
Same goes for trading. If you are not confident in your thesis, you should not take that trade.
I understand that being confident in your thesis doesn't mean that it will be a profitable one, but what being confident in your thesis does do, is allow you to correctly manage your trade and money.
Nothing is for sure, yes, but if you are not confident in cookie prices going up, don't buy them.
EDIT: I also understand that others, such as yourself may have differing views on things. I am not forcing my thoughts on to anyone. I am providing my thoughts and beliefs on this wonderful forum for those that want to read it. Does everyone want to know what Alex thinks? Of course not! That is why you all have a choice whether or not you prescribe to my thoughts and beliefs. You don't even have to agree with everything I say! You can come here and read 3 of my posts and disagree with two of them, but hey, you now have another post-worth of knowledge that you have accepted into your mind. So, do as you wish! All I can do is provide what I feel may be valuable to you all. It is up to you to filter through everything and take it for what it is worth. I wish the best for everyone, even those that disagree with me.
This message is not just for you, @IzhakHaim, but for all readers, so do not take it personally!
Last edited by rocksolid68; September 7th, 2016 at 03:47 PM.
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As a quick side note, I do not believe you on that statement. I am now craving, like really bad, Girl Scout cookies. Like, a LOT of them. This is not fair. So if you really wished us best, you would have not used cookies in your analogy. *shakes fist at rocksolid* Damn you!
Rofl. Sorry, being silly in your journal. I'm always trying to have a bit of levity. Maybe one day I'll chase you with NYC pizza when I get my own journal back on track.
But seriously, a nice tactful response by you to "naysayers" out there. Kudos man.
K, we now return to the regularly-scheduled journal already in progress. Arg. Sorry!
Last edited by HoopyTrading; September 7th, 2016 at 04:06 PM.
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Thanks , great explanation I will definitely start looking into this when I start trading the ES.
Do you see any advantage in using correlations if you were trading the CL or does it have a mind of its own?
As far as age goes, I do not think that it would be fair to discount intuition and knowledge for youth.
As Vladimir Lenin said, "There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen."
Sure, I wasn't a pit trader that has been in the business since the 90's, but what I am is a trader that has dedicated his life to learning this stuff for the years that I have been exposed to it.
When I am at school, what was I doing? Reading about the Fed's minutes and how their words can affect the market.
I am at home laying in bed and I end up staying up till 1:00 am reading a book about how the 1929 crash created more millionaires than ever before in history. Heck, Colonel Sander's started serving fried chicken at that time.
When I am driving, I am listening to podcasts about the market or interviews with traders.
When I am eating breakfast, guess what I was doing? Reading. When I am at the desk, I am grinding through FIO, charts, and readings. I was reading PDF's from JP Morgan about cross-asset allocation and the business cycle.
What I am trying to say is that even though I am young, I may have spent more time with this stuff than some of you have spent in your lifetime. Most of you have families, a job, and other priorities. You can only dedicate a little bit of time to this. Of course some of you are just as crazy as me
As far as how I take trades is going to have to be a different post. It is not a simple subject
Major turning points? Getting rid of the clutter, being consistent, stop blaming everything else for your failure, and learning how to manage trades.
More on these things later.
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