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How I Trade For a Living
Started:August 30th, 2016 (10:48 AM) by rocksolid68 Views / Replies:48,803 / 662
Last Reply:November 7th, 2016 (02:55 PM) Attachments:94

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How I Trade For a Living

Old October 18th, 2016, 08:47 AM   #351 (permalink)
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rocksolid68 View Post


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Bonds, gold, and USD were all pointing towards a very bullish ES today, yet, the ES was lower in the morning. Weird huh?

Summary:
-Bonds, gold, and USD all looked bullish for ES
-Waited for oil to release its bear grip on ES

Hi rocksolid68, good journal btw.

Re the above image - gold & bonds are up as per the arrows? how is this bullish for ES? Or do you mean after the initial ramp and level off? As per your previous comments:

"Bonds tend to move inversely of the ES (ES goes up, Bonds go down).
Gold tends to move inversely of ES as well"

Also - the bond vs stocks correlation broke down years ago, see chart below for 1 month rolling correlation, ok its negative now (just happened) but this has happened infrequently in past few years and it was +0.80 3 months ago:

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(Stocks and Bond Yields Diverge Most Since 2007 - MoneyBeat - WSJ)

I am aware that you are trading intraday - but if the correlation is not negative long term then surely intraday inverse correlations are random at best?

Thanks,
DMDF

     
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Old October 18th, 2016, 09:50 AM   #352 (permalink)
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DaxyMcDaxFace View Post
Hi rocksolid68, good journal btw.

Re the above image - gold & bonds are up as per the arrows? how is this bullish for ES? Or do you mean after the initial ramp and level off? As per your previous comments:

"Bonds tend to move inversely of the ES (ES goes up, Bonds go down).
Gold tends to move inversely of ES as well"

Also - the bond vs stocks correlation broke down years ago, see chart below for 1 month rolling correlation, ok its negative now (just happened) but this has happened infrequently in past few years and it was +0.80 3 months ago:


(Stocks and Bond Yields Diverge Most Since 2007 - MoneyBeat - WSJ)

I am aware that you are trading intraday - but if the correlation is not negative long term then surely intraday inverse correlations are random at best?

Thanks,
DMDF

Hello DMDF,

The chart with the arrows plots the inverse of bonds and gold.

So yes, you are correct. However, my chart is accurate nonetheless

     
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Old October 18th, 2016, 10:21 AM   #353 (permalink)
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rocksolid68 View Post
Hello DMDF,

The chart with the arrows plots the inverse of bonds and gold.

So yes, you are correct. However, my chart is accurate nonetheless

apologies, i did read that earlier then forgot.

and the correlation query?

     
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Old October 18th, 2016, 11:32 AM   #354 (permalink)
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DaxyMcDaxFace View Post
apologies, i did read that earlier then forgot.

and the correlation query?

Markets are ever-changing and you do need to stay on top of it.

However, longerterm they are correlated (inveresly) and I do think that they are not so random.

It isn't necessarily what they are, more about how you interpret them. Does that make sense?

Thank you for the input.

     
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Old October 18th, 2016, 07:25 PM   #355 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO
Those of you in the room this morning know that I took this trade however I thought I would post it here for the record:
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This afternoon we broke the resistance but ended up retracing immediatley after. This is leaving me a tad skittish but I will hold unless price dips more.

Target is Monthly S2 (~14 points from entry)

     
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Old October 18th, 2016, 09:24 PM   #356 (permalink)
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Market looking a bit uneasy up here... I am tempted to pocket the ~$200 and flip short...

Awe what the hell - Shorted ZB.

     

Old October 18th, 2016, 09:30 PM   #357 (permalink)
Hi Mom!
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rocksolid68 View Post
Market looking a bit uneasy up here... I am tempted to pocket the ~$200 and flip short...

Awe what the hell - Shorted ZB.

How's the gold working?

     
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Old October 18th, 2016, 09:32 PM   #358 (permalink)
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TheShrike View Post
How's the gold working?

Look two posts higher!

I am still in but my stop is around 1262. If I take the stop, I will still make $50 which will cover gas and lunch tomorrow

EDIT: I added one contract to ZB. It is just an EOT add. I am fine with getting stopped on this. GC is at the top of the months range which is concerning and it is showing weakness....


Last edited by rocksolid68; October 18th, 2016 at 11:59 PM.
     

Old October 19th, 2016, 12:07 AM   #359 (permalink)
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Flipped short on GC.

Price kept failing to sustain higher highs. The R/R is much better for the short side. Tons of resistance above as a good backstop.

So now I am in short on both GC and ZB

I banked a quick $220 on the GC long before I flipped.

     
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Old October 19th, 2016, 09:39 AM   #360 (permalink)
Hi Mom!
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