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How I Trade For a Living
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How I Trade For a Living

  #351 (permalink)
Elite Member
London
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts
Broker/Data: CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
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rocksolid68 View Post


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Bonds, gold, and USD were all pointing towards a very bullish ES today, yet, the ES was lower in the morning. Weird huh?

Summary:
-Bonds, gold, and USD all looked bullish for ES
-Waited for oil to release its bear grip on ES

Hi rocksolid68, good journal btw.

Re the above image - gold & bonds are up as per the arrows? how is this bullish for ES? Or do you mean after the initial ramp and level off? As per your previous comments:

"Bonds tend to move inversely of the ES (ES goes up, Bonds go down).
Gold tends to move inversely of ES as well"

Also - the bond vs stocks correlation broke down years ago, see chart below for 1 month rolling correlation, ok its negative now (just happened) but this has happened infrequently in past few years and it was +0.80 3 months ago:

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(Stocks and Bond Yields Diverge Most Since 2007 - MoneyBeat - WSJ)

I am aware that you are trading intraday - but if the correlation is not negative long term then surely intraday inverse correlations are random at best?

Thanks,
DMDF

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  #352 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Duluth MN
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader/Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: AMP
Favorite Futures: ES
 
rocksolid68's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,019 since Jan 2015
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DaxyMcDaxFace View Post
Hi rocksolid68, good journal btw.

Re the above image - gold & bonds are up as per the arrows? how is this bullish for ES? Or do you mean after the initial ramp and level off? As per your previous comments:

"Bonds tend to move inversely of the ES (ES goes up, Bonds go down).
Gold tends to move inversely of ES as well"

Also - the bond vs stocks correlation broke down years ago, see chart below for 1 month rolling correlation, ok its negative now (just happened) but this has happened infrequently in past few years and it was +0.80 3 months ago:


(Stocks and Bond Yields Diverge Most Since 2007 - MoneyBeat - WSJ)

I am aware that you are trading intraday - but if the correlation is not negative long term then surely intraday inverse correlations are random at best?

Thanks,
DMDF

Hello DMDF,

The chart with the arrows plots the inverse of bonds and gold.

So yes, you are correct. However, my chart is accurate nonetheless

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  #353 (permalink)
Elite Member
London
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts
Broker/Data: CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
Posts: 567 since May 2016
Thanks: 1,056 given, 438 received



rocksolid68 View Post
Hello DMDF,

The chart with the arrows plots the inverse of bonds and gold.

So yes, you are correct. However, my chart is accurate nonetheless

apologies, i did read that earlier then forgot.

and the correlation query?

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  #354 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Duluth MN
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader/Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: AMP
Favorite Futures: ES
 
rocksolid68's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,019 since Jan 2015
Thanks: 1,317 given, 2,652 received
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DaxyMcDaxFace View Post
apologies, i did read that earlier then forgot.

and the correlation query?

Markets are ever-changing and you do need to stay on top of it.

However, longerterm they are correlated (inveresly) and I do think that they are not so random.

It isn't necessarily what they are, more about how you interpret them. Does that make sense?

Thank you for the input.

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  #355 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Duluth MN
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader/Sierra Chart
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Those of you in the room this morning know that I took this trade however I thought I would post it here for the record:
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This afternoon we broke the resistance but ended up retracing immediatley after. This is leaving me a tad skittish but I will hold unless price dips more.

Target is Monthly S2 (~14 points from entry)

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  #356 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Duluth MN
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader/Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: AMP
Favorite Futures: ES
 
rocksolid68's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,019 since Jan 2015
Thanks: 1,317 given, 2,652 received
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Market looking a bit uneasy up here... I am tempted to pocket the ~$200 and flip short...

Awe what the hell - Shorted ZB.

 
  #357 (permalink)
Hi Mom!
Bridgeport, Ct
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra
Favorite Futures: Gold, Oil
 
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rocksolid68 View Post
Market looking a bit uneasy up here... I am tempted to pocket the ~$200 and flip short...

Awe what the hell - Shorted ZB.

How's the gold working?

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  #358 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Duluth MN
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader/Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: AMP
Favorite Futures: ES
 
rocksolid68's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,019 since Jan 2015
Thanks: 1,317 given, 2,652 received
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TheShrike View Post
How's the gold working?

Look two posts higher!

I am still in but my stop is around 1262. If I take the stop, I will still make $50 which will cover gas and lunch tomorrow

EDIT: I added one contract to ZB. It is just an EOT add. I am fine with getting stopped on this. GC is at the top of the months range which is concerning and it is showing weakness....


Last edited by rocksolid68; October 18th, 2016 at 10:59 PM.
 
  #359 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Duluth MN
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader/Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: AMP
Favorite Futures: ES
 
rocksolid68's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,019 since Jan 2015
Thanks: 1,317 given, 2,652 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Flipped short on GC.

Price kept failing to sustain higher highs. The R/R is much better for the short side. Tons of resistance above as a good backstop.

So now I am in short on both GC and ZB

I banked a quick $220 on the GC long before I flipped.

The following 4 users say Thank You to rocksolid68 for this post:
 
  #360 (permalink)
Hi Mom!
Bridgeport, Ct
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra
Favorite Futures: Gold, Oil
 
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Posts: 358 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 991 given, 467 received




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