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How I Trade For a Living
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How I Trade For a Living

  #21 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Rocksolid68, The way you are capturing your views of the market and relaying them here in this thread offers some great insight for the new comer. I like the way you have displayed the charts/information that you view along with a synopsis of what you take from them. These postings are much appreciated!

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  #22 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I just want to thank everyone that so kindly has thanked me in this journal as well as those that have private messaged me.

I hope to reach your expectations!

Alright, here is another. Now we are getting into my two "trigger pulling" charts.

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What's this? This is my Intraday Intermarket Correlation Chart!

This is a fancy way of saying that this chart shows me what other markets are doing.

This is a whole entire different topic that I could spend months on. Heck, there are billions of dollars spent on this stuff. Anyways, I shall make this one brief.

On top of the chart we have bonds. Bonds tend to move inversely of the ES (ES goes up, Bonds go down). Because of this, I inverted the chart. This way the bond chart on top tells me the market sentiment of Bonds relative to the ES.

Next one down is gold! Gold tends to move inversely of ES as well. This chart is inverted like the bonds chart.

Next is USD (U.S. Dollar $$$$$). USD tends to move in tandem with the ES (ES goes up, USD goes up).

Next down is Crude Oil (CL). CL is a wild beast with no master. CL is tricky because some days it moves the ES and some days it doesn't. This one is something you must keep an eye on.

These charts are some of my favorite tools for confirming my trades. They can tell you a lot about the market sentiment for the day. I advise anybody that hasn't used these correlations to do so, for they are crucial in my trading and can benefit yours as well.

There we go! Now only one left!

 
  #23 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Hey everyone! I hope you all enjoyed your long weekends! (I suppose I am speaking to Americans only with this :P)

I am going to post my last chart, then I will start with the actual daily journal!

Here is my trade screen- a 2 minute chart

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What am I looking for on here?

-Day structure. What does the days price action appear to be etc.
-Areas to take profit and areas to add.
-Price action
-The subgraph is displaying the NYSE TICK. Google this for more information
-I watch TICK pretty heavily as it shows strength and weakness in the market. It can also give hints as to what type of day it will be (range, trend, etc.)
-Pull the trigger on this chart. Once I have made my thesis, it is this chart I make trades on. (You can see the chart trader on the right)


Once again guys, very brief and vague. I can not wait to dive into the journal aspect of this. Here we go!

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  #24 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Well, here you go! I would appreciate feedback; what else do you want to see, what should I get rid of etc.

I am only going to choose a few charts each morning to show where I am gathering my thesis.

Daily:
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-As the yellow arrows point out, every time we test all-time-highs, we do so on very little volume. (lack of interest up there)
-As for within the white box, down days tend to have more volume than the up days
-Days that test the bottom of the range tend to have the most volume (people finding cheap value?)


30-minute:
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-Yesterday made a run for the Monthly VWAP (M-VWAP) but was unable to make it. (Bulls hopped in)
-We ended up testing R2 which is pretty bullish
-We tested the previous high area (bullish)
-Pivot held overnight (ON)
-Weekly VWAP (W-VWAP)


6-Hour:
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-If the market is trending up it tends to stay in between +1SD and +2SD. Right now we are above +1SD (bullish)
-May try to run it up to the ~90 area.


Overall thoughts:
-I think that we are going to test all-time-highs (ATH's) today
-We will either break out of the range with massive volume, or we will fizzle and drop in.



Trading Plan:
-Fade all the way to the W-VWAP (~80)
-Target will be ATH's
-If we break W-VWAP with conviction, I will flip short and aim for a retest of M-VWAP

(W-VWAP, Monthly +SD1, Pivot, and standard support are all in the same area)

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  #25 (permalink)
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rocksolid68 View Post
Trading Plan:
-Fade all the way to the W-VWAP (~80)
-Target will be ATH's
-If we break W-VWAP with conviction, I will flip short and aim for a retest of M-VWAP

(W-VWAP, Monthly +SD1, Pivot, and standard support are all in the same area)

So, to be clear, when you say "fade all the way to the W-VWAP," I take it you mean that you will be long and adding to longs (on declines?) so long as it stays above the weekly VWAP at about 80?

I assume this is because you are bullish and are willing to take some short-term loss in order to build a position at a good average price....

Just checking that I have understood your lingo and your intention.

Bob.

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  #26 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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bobwest View Post
So, to be clear, when you say "fade all the way to the W-VWAP," I take it you mean that you will be long and adding to longs (on declines?) so long as it stays above the weekly VWAP at about 80?

I assume this is because you are bullish and are willing to take some short-term loss in order to build a position at a good average price....

Just checking that I have understood your lingo and your intention.

Bob.

Precisely! I am willing to let price go against me. Just because price goes down, doesn't mean I am wrong. It just means price is down

I did not get too much room to add as of now, but I am long as I type this. Crude oil is looking quite crazy, I hope it doesn't affect the ES too much.

But yes, building long all the way to W-VWAP. If my thesis is bullish until then, why not add until then?

More on this later today. I want to write about this, but at the moment am a little busy with trading and school work

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  #27 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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As far as the Pre-Market Analysis goes, it may seem very complicated and such, but in reality, it isn't.

All that information that it seems like my brain barfed into that post didn't take me long to gather.

It took me longer to write the post than to create my thesis.

Do not get distracted by everything I wrote. It really is not as complicated as I made it seem!

Remember, do not be afraid to ask any questions!

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  #28 (permalink)
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Hey Alex,
Thanks for the very informative post.
Do you have anything interesting on your correlation charts? this something i have not looked into.....yet.

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  #29 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Regarding @bobwest's post about why I "fade" certain areas.

So, let's define fading.

When somebody fades a certain area, it means that they are building their positions as price goes "against" them.

Example:

I want to "fade" Y-Close and I am bullish.

Price is 4-points (2014) above Y-Close (2010).

I am willing to build a position of 5 lots max. I will scale these in.

So, when price is at 2014, I buy one contract. When price goes to 2012, I buy 2 more lots. When it goes to 2011, I buy 2 more. When it goes to 2010, I buy my 5th contract.

I now have a 5-contract long position which is what I wanted. I "faded" all the way to Y-Close.
_______________________________________

So, why fade a level?

Going back to the example:

I have my thesis. I think that price will go up to 2025. I am going to keep my bullish bias ALL THE WAY to Y-Close.

Since I will be bullish all the way to 2010 (Y-Close), I want to build a long position the entire time if I am bullish, right?

If I am confident that the market is going to go higher, I want to be in long, right? Right. So why not buy the market at cheaper prices?
_______________________________________

Let's make this simpler.

You want to buy Girl Scout Cookies in season, and sell them when they are out of season. (Girl Scout's is a program for girls that kids join and they sell cookies in America).

So, I want to buy low, sell high, right?

I buy 10 boxes of cookies in-season for $5 each. I now own 10 boxes of cookies and am $50 down so far in this investment.

The season of Cookie selling for Girl Scouts continues... Then in the last week before the are done selling cookies, they go on sale!!!

THEY ARE NOW SELLING A BOX OF COOKIE'S FOR $2!!! Wow! That is cheap!

So, you are confident you can sell these boxes of cookies for $8 a box when they are out of season. Currently you will make $3 profit per box since you bought them for $5 originally.

Don't you want to buy more to make more money? You are confident that you can sell for a profit, so why not buy more when they are cheaper? More profit-per-box!

So you buy 20 more boxes. You now own 30 boxes of cookies and are $90 in the hole on your investment. All is well, because you are confident you can flip these cookies for a profit.

So next thing you know, the Girl Scouts stop selling their cookies.

You start to sell these cookies at $8 a box. 30 boxes for $8 a pop. Boom! $240 revenue, $150 in profit.

Worth buying those cookies for cheaper? Hell yeah.

Better to buy them at a discount that buying all 30 at $5 a box.



(Sorry for the long winded explanation. I hope this sort of made sense )

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  #30 (permalink)
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"Then in the last week before the are done selling cookies, they go on sale!!!"

Let me know when is the last week of the STOCK/FUTURES/ETF etc. before no more selling so I know to pay sale's price....

Easy to do with cookies since you KNOW when the season is over...

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