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-Price topped out last week. We are retracing.
-Today will be the day we determine whether or not it was a failed rally, or a retracement for another leg up.
-How to know whether or not it is a retracement or not: whether we can go/stay above M-S1 and Monthly +1SD. These numbers are boxed on the right. (~50-~52)
That will be our price to watch.
Deutsche Bank giving the market hell, so we are lower right now.
Presidential campaign debate tonight, who is watching? opcorn2:
Trade Thesis:
-Watch how the open plays out.
-If we pop higher at the open, fade the AoI (50-52), and if we break above it with conviction, I will flip to the longside.
-Downside target is M-VWAP and M-S2 (36-34) and upside targets will be ~70 and higher.
Long in ES 2 contracts at the moment. Playing small because I think today can throw some curve balls, so I do not want too much weight on my if the ship sinks.
The green box is the AoI that I think will determine market sentiment. OR-H is also my target.
If this comes back down, I will not hesitate to flip short. But for now, holding long.
EDIT: Literally touched my target but no fill..... Front running the OR-H at 48.75. I added a third lot and if I get the fill, it will be for daily income goal. The rest will be for more.
I want to note something about my current trade as price is coming down to my position.
At its peak, I was +$650 with this trade. Right now I am around +$275.
Granted I did not get my one target filled, I still think this is a good "teaching" moment.
Searching for large wins (asymmetrical returns) can be extremely frustrating! Like right now someone may be thinking "well I could have just made 600 bucks and been fine. That is more than I need a day to trade for a living."
Or you would think, "I would flatten out after price came down because I don't want to lose anymore profit potential."
Guess what, these two thought processes may seem effective for that one trade, but in the long run, they will only hinder your chances of making it.
I think for some it is better to NOT mess with their trade once they are in. I say this because they let emotions get in the way.
As I type this, price seems like it may go back up to my target. Patience could play off big for me here, or, just tease me and come back down and stop me out.
If I could redo this over again, I would handle this trade the SAME exact way. I know that this works in the long run, so I am not going to change it.
opcorn2:
