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How I Trade For a Living
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How I Trade For a Living

  #121 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sarasota FL
 
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rocksolid68 View Post
When I bought bonds this morning, I was not holding them for the yield they give, but rather the yield they may give in difference of price.

This is not easy to explain, but do you understand what I am saying?

If it makes it easier, we can just call it "discount investing" or maybe "value hunting"

The idea of comparing say, bonds and gold, is very interesting, especially when it's based on the concept that they should move together, and that if one lags, then the market will probably bring it back up relative to the other. Buying the weaker of the pair is an interesting kind of arbitrage, and could well identify some good opportunities.

I hope you will be posting these trades, and I hope they will prove out the concept. It is a kind of discount or value investing, or arbitrage , and not one that I was familiar with. I think it's a pretty cool idea.

Thanks for the info and the explanation.

Bob.

Edit: just saw your ES/ZB/GC post. We were typing at the same time.


Last edited by bobwest; September 19th, 2016 at 07:28 PM.
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  #122 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Duluth MN
 
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rocksolid68's Avatar
 
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Post regarding my ES trading as of late.

For those that have been following along, you will notice that I had two losing days in a row on ES. The total lost was ~$650

Yes, that sucks, but once you get the idea of asymmetrical returns in your head, you will realize that this is just the cost of business.

Yesterday I had a winning day. +$925 or so. That erased all of my losing days and more! Keep your losing days to a minimum, and let your winning days fly!

I just wanted to point this out because a lot of people stop trading if they recoup the previous day's loss. You won't ever move anywhere if you go one step back, then one step forward.

Morning analysis on the way!

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  #123 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Duluth MN
 
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Morning analysis:

Daily:
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-Hitting previous support.
-Volume fading into FOMC
-Volatility fading as well


360 Minute:
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-Yesterday played out how I had expected it to more or less.
-Tested +1SD then dropped to M-VWAP
-We are near the SD once again.
-M-VWAP got bought up
-May see a test of Y-High


Thesis:
-I want to fade Y-High
-If market shows some bullish conviction, I will abstain from taking a trade.

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  #124 (permalink)
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rocksolid68 View Post
Thesis:
-I want to fade Y-High
-If market shows some bullish conviction, I will abstain from taking a trade.

FYI, your 360 chart is not showing up, to me anyway. You might want to repost.

Bob.

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  #125 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
FYI, your 360 chart is not showing up, to me anyway. You might want to repost.

Bob.

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Here is the chart. Just imagine it is in the other post. I can't get it to embed in the other, so here you go!

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  #126 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Hey, just thought I would let you all know that I more than likely WILL not be trading tomorrow.

On FOMC days, I either hit a big winning day or a big losing day. I am going to avoid that because big losing days are unnecessary.

Why put all your money on red in roulette when you have been hitting a hot streak playing blackjack?

That being said, I can't wait till the post-FOMC fun on Thursday and Friday

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  #127 (permalink)
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I just remembered that I never posted the EOD recap!

Oops!

I will get right on that. I will post it once I am at the station!

Sorry!

(Yesterday was nothing crazy, so you aren't missing much )

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  #128 (permalink)
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Here you go!

Live ES: +$275
Live ZB: +$31.25
SIM GC: +$40

ES:
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-Played the long side at the open, made a little money, then I realized that the day is going to be a complete repeat of the prior day, so I got in short.
-Scalped around too much trying to get a good entry
-Ended up getting stopped on my runner. I was hoping we would go to Y-VPOC and Y-Close but I ended up flattening before that


ZB:
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-Took one tick profit because I was wanting to be done for the day
-I was also afraid of a blast higher due to what I was seeing in the market
-Should have held.... look at the crash....


GC:
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-Tried long, got stopped for ~240 bucks then tried long again and made it all back plus some.


All in all, small green day in live and SIM.

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  #129 (permalink)
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As you all know, I did not trade today.

I hope you all did well!


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  #130 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Morning Analysis:

Not going to post too many photos here in the morning analysis.

My analysis is that I want to be long every chance I get


Those of you that read in the Spoo thread saw that I am long in a few different ETF's. I am fairly bullish.

The Fed holding off on rates for a while puts us in a risk-on environment until the election, NFP's, or the next FOMC.

So needless to say, we have a fairly good chance of seeing ATH's in the near future.

That being said, I wish to be holding a long for when that happens.


AoI:

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These are some AoI.

R1 is if we do not get much of a retrace. ON-Low is if we get a big retracement. ETH-VWAP is if we get a medium sized retrace.

So low 50's, or mid 60's are my AoI for now!

I will update accordingly!

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