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I was banking on scenario 2 happening, but we ended up with scenario 1
One trade taken. It looked really good and I thought we had a winner
Ended up 1 pt up which is a break even for me
Trade grade - Good
It was in the plan
Observed signs of entry
Good target and stop
About an hr after this we had a power surge and it took me a while to figure out how to reset things so I could turn my PC on
My first time going through one of these in my own house, we don't get those often in Canada
No big move overnight, no huge activity, just boring
News pre market all came up very positive
No earnings today
NFLX up 7% after reporting earnings
Scenarios
Hit all time high, move bear from that until we find strong support and then continue to go up and break new all time highs
Hit all time high, trend bear for the rest of the day until we find strong support, then pullback a bit but don't end close to high
Open up bear until ON low, then move up for rest of day
Open up bear until ~ PDL or ~5025, then move up from there
Open up all time high, pullback and continue to trend bull
Setups I'll take today
I feel like these are mostly the same setups we have had this year. I'll only add the detail for the ones that haven't been there every day for the last 2 weeks
Market has been slow and boring, and my journaling and routine have taken a hit and I haven't been as diligent about it as I should be. Just because the market is slow doesn't mean I can slack off, so I have to focus on getting back to journaling on a daily basis, as well as doing everything else that is part of my routine. As an example I've yet to do a weekly analysis and some days I won't post my post day summary. This is not good work ethic so let's get back to a good routine!
Here's my prep
More earnings this week
Hit new record highs last week
Closed near record highs
Lowest range we've seen this year, and lowest since October
Scenarios Trying something new with my scenarios and it's kind of messy so I won't be posting them today. I'm trying to move away from a word-based scenario planning into something more visual.
Setups I'll take today
~5100
LF Short
Stop behind 5100 is ideal, but you never know when price will start to reverse so read the market
Safe target is 5083, stretch is 5076, 3rd stretch is 5062 and if you are willing to hold ON you can target 5053
~5083 (Record High)
LF Short
Looking for reversal
Stop behind 5086 is ideal
Safe target is 5062, stretch is 5053, 3rd stretch is 5043
~5075
LF Short
Looking for reversal
Stop behind 5075 is a must
Safe target is 5061, stretch is 5053, 3rd stretch is 5046, 4th is 5042
~5060 (ON High & Open)
LF Long
You are looking for a break out trade here, and the move should be very strong to take a trade here
Stop behind 5059 is ideal
Safe target is 5074, stretch is 5079
~5060 (ON High & Open)
LF Short
Stop behind 5065 is ideal
Safe target is 5043, but watch the 50 area closely for any signs that you just shorted a pullback
Stretch target is ON low, 3rd stretch is 5031
~5035 (ON Low)
LF Long
You are looking for a reversal
Stop behind 5039 is a must, behind 5035 is ideal
Safe target is 5054, but watch the 50 area closely
Stretch target is 5067
~5035 (ON Low)
LF Long
You are looking for a revresal
Stop behind 5030 is ideal but might be tough to get
~5025 (Previous Week Low)
LF Long
Stop behind 5024 is ideal
Target 37, 46, 54, 67
~5010
LF Long
Reversal
Stop behind 5010 is a must
Target 24, 29, 37, 46
Keep in mind we have YHOO earnings post close so you might not want to hold ON
1 trade taken, a couple of setups passed. First opportunity - Long & Short around ON High
My FOMO kicked in a bit here and I wanted to take a long trade. But honestly it didn't feel quite right. It would need to be breaking new all time highs for this trade to be worth the R/R.
Second opportunity - Short
Started to see some signs of a reversal, but it was about 4 points lower than I expected to see this type activity.
I made the conscious decision to pass up on this trade, as the entry point would've left me too exposed R/R wise.
In retrospect, my resistance area was a bit higher than it should've been.
Third opportunity - Long @ ~ ON Low
Market started to balance out ~ ON lows and I looked for an entry point. I didn't get in right away but I was going to be patient and not rush this trade.
Eventually I got filled but the market started dropping in seconds and I figured something was going on but my trade management doesn't allow me to exit the trade so I left itas is.
I got stopped out right away and the market dropped a couple of points more before picking back up. I wanted to get in on the trade at ~ the 33 mark, but I honestly wasn't sure if the market was going to keep dropping, or if the news was just enough to give the market some jitters. Taking the trade would've been me being stubborn just because the setup itself was good. Oh well.
Trade grade - Good
It was in the plan
Observed signs of entry
Good target and stop
Psychology goals for the day
0 FOMO trades- Passed
0 Emotional trades- Passed
Engage deliberate thinking in all trades- Passed
Do not get greedy with your trades- Passed
Abide by your trade management standard- Passed
Do not break any golden or silver risk management rules- Passed
Set alarms and walk away during non-critical periods- Passed
Maximum of 3 trades today, you know the 3rd trade rule- Passed
All trades must be part of plan / scenarios / setups- Passed
Do not look at P&L- Passed
No trading while the market is flat- Passed
I have an appointment tomorrow morning, so I most likely won't trade.
See you Wednesday!
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Pullback at open and continue bull rally with a potential bull trend day
Strong bull from the open and continue bull rally with a potential bull trend day
Pullback in the open until ~ 5100, then continue bull from there
Setups I'll take today
Long ~ open
Look to see if the sentiment is still strongly bullish and get into a bull position. Hold until ~ end of day if bull trend day scenario happens or until ~ 5047
It's crazy that I'm saying this but finally I hit my target for the first time this year.
I haven't taken that many trades but all of my trades were either losses or a break-even / slightly profitable and hit with a stop order. It does hurt your morale a bit to not hit your target for almost 3 weeks of trading, but sometimes your methodology isn't going to work very well with the type of market. To add to that, I'm not skilled enough as a trader yet to be able to adapt to different type of markets.
Here's the trade
Trade grade – Ok
It may or may not have been part of my setup plans but at least aligned to my scenarios
