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SoftSoap's NQ Journey - from SoftSoap to SoftGold


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SoftSoap's NQ Journey - from SoftSoap to SoftGold

  #161 (permalink)
 sagor 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Trading: YM
Posts: 83 since Dec 2011
Thanks Given: 193
Thanks Received: 126

Hi,

have a question for you.
Looking at your prep, it looks like you have levels above current prices that you are looking to fade, and levels below recent action that you are looking to go long.
Does it mean that you are expecting that majority of days will be ranging days?

Also, on your first trade, before entering, you have a screenshot with volume profile that looks kind of like this:
xxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxx
xxxxxx
xxxx
xx
x
x

Why do you think this is bearish profile?

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  #162 (permalink)
 
SoftSoap's Avatar
 SoftSoap 
Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: InteractiveBrokers
Trading: NQ
Posts: 594 since Aug 2015
Thanks Given: 347
Thanks Received: 1,227


sagor View Post
Hi,

have a question for you.
Looking at your prep, it looks like you have levels above current prices that you are looking to fade, and levels below recent action that you are looking to go long.
Does it mean that you are expecting that majority of days will be ranging days?

Also, on your first trade, before entering, you have a screenshot with volume profile that looks kind of like this:
xxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxx
xxxxxx
xxxx
xx
x
x

Why do you think this is bearish profile?

Thanks for the question.

As for my prep
I mostly look for trades where I expect the trend to reverse. This is because in the past it's what I've been strongest with. As I start to take more setups in the future, this will be a weak point of mine as days like today or big trend days have had a negative impact on my account.

Having said that, there are times when I am looking for signs that the trend will either reverse, or continue, and my plan will account for both.



Here's an example from last week where in the following areas I was looking for signs of either a reversal, or a trend continuation:
  • 2 & 3
  • 4 & 5
  • 6 & 7
  • 10 & 11

Today I did expect a range day and I was punished for it, as I wasn't prepared to take any long setups above the open mark. However, I don't know that the signs would've been strong enough for me to enter into a bull position with the areas I was looking at.
As I grow as a trader, I'll probably be able to adapt to the market changes on the fly more.

To answer your question in one sentence - I mostly expect some sort of range every day, yes.

As for the profile
It's a bit difficult to explain but I'll try.

I must warn you I'm not a profile expert, and I don't have any formal education on it. Everything I know about volume profile is purely based on watching the candles along with the volume profile, writing down changes, and making connections. I have not read any books on it, I have not watched the webinars around it, I have not looked to see how other traders apply it, etc. When I say it's purely based on what I've observed, I mean it .

From my experience, a profile like that shows me that at the higher prices we are seeing what I would call 'price absorption' (not sure if this is a real term, or the correct term), where I feel that the buyers have reached a wall of sellers and they are slowing down the movement of the up move. The sellers are selling within a couple of points and the buyers are buying within a couple of points. As time passes, one of them will stop selling or buying within that range, and will start to take less favorable entry / exit points and will move the market either down or up based on who is stronger. Also more or less sellers / buyers could step in and that would also lead to price moving. Vague, but bare with me.

One thing to note though is that on my charts I write notes saying 'bull or bear' profiles, but I assure you that I don't just look at the profile itself to come to that conclusion.

For today's example, here are the other signs I used to determine whether this particular profile was bullish or bearish:
  1. How I interpret the price movement as it's happening - I'm actually watching the screen every second to see how price moves up and down, where, how fast, etc.
  2. What the candle looks like - Is it up? Is it down? How big is it? Does it have any wicks? What are the wicks like?
  3. I look at time
  4. Total volume at the bottom of my charts - Is it low? Is it high? Is it abnormal? How does the amount of volume compare with price? Do we have a lot of volume for a 1-2 pt 5 minute range? Do we have little volume for a 10-12 pt 5 minute range?
  5. What's happened recently and my overall sentiment - I try to suppress my bias as much as I can because market biases create a narrow mindset , but unconsciously it's hard to do.

Thankfully the example you asked is of today so I can give you the answer to those questions:
  1. The price moved up pretty fast and started to slow down around the 4879 area, it bounced and was slowing for a couple of minutes between 4879 and 4881.50
  2. When I bought the candle was up, and there was a selling wick of ~ 1pt
  3. We are about 4 minutes into the open, and we've been slowed down to within a ~2 pt range after moving up very fast. The first 5 minutes are about to close and the candle is likely to be bullish with a selling wick at ~resistance area with decent volume.
  4. Volume is a bit higher than you would expect on a Monday about 4 minutes in. Which means that if the selling is strong enough to slow this trend, it could be strong enough to counter it.
  5. Today my sentiment was that we were going to sell off at either the 4880, 4890 or 4900 area. I was wrong on all 3 of those

Putting all of that together led me to the conclusion that the profile was bearish. Had some of those things above been different, the exact same profile could lead me to believe that it's bullish and just slowing down a little bit.

In today's particular case, price moved down ~ 6 pts and the wicks were red for the next 10 minutes, which slowed and slightly reversed the trend, but not enough for me to take a profitable trade as I aim for higher moves. Unfortunately I just caught a small pullback today

One thing to note as well, is that this is only a 5 minute profile, and not as reliable as profiles with more information. I only use 5 minute profiles for the first 15 minutes of the RTH as I'm looking for any obvious signs of a quick reversal.


I wish I could give you a black and white answer, but my experience with the markets has been that there is no such thing as a white and black answer. The best we can do as traders is to look at as many pieces of information as possible and make as educated of a decision as we can within a certain timeframe to secure an entry.

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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  #163 (permalink)
 sagor 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Trading: YM
Posts: 83 since Dec 2011
Thanks Given: 193
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SoftSoap View Post
Thanks for the question.

Wow, that was a super detailed answer, thank you for that and appreciate the time spent on writing it.

As for profile.
The way I see market is that it is an auction.
Sole purpose of auction is to connect buyers and sellers.
If there are a lot of buyers and sellers at one point, it means market is doing very good job. It means buyers and sellers both agree on that price, that it is perceived as value. The more time and volume we spend there, the more it becomes accepted.

So if I were to see profile like shown above, my guess would be that we poked higher and found buyers and sellers at that level, price was accepted. At some point we going to exhaust buyers and sellers at that level, and then market will have to poke higher or lower to explore if we have more market activity above or below current price.
So if profile looks like this:
xxxxx
xxxxxx
xxxxxxx
xxxxx
xxx
xx
xx
x

My guess would be that we can poke lower, and confirm that price below perceived as super cheap by buyers and quickly move up and then we going to explore higher.
Or we can poke higher, complete profile so to say (to make it balanced), find very motivated sellers and push prices back into recent value, potentially spending some more time in value and then poking higher again or moving the other direction lower to find more motivated buyers.

So, returning back to your first entry.
If you look at volume profile (first screenshot, lower left corner), you see that we have long tail at the bottom (shows super motivated buyer that just pushed prices higher very quickly), and then higher prices attracting volume and time, meaning higher prices are being accepted.
In my experience, it is very rare when prices would revert from profile like that, without firstly exploring higher to confirm that higher prices will cut off activity. So if I would wanted to get short, I would wait for that poke higher, seeing that higher prices cut off activity (lower volume, and preferably not spending time above as well and instead move lower back into value). That would also complete profile.
Majority of profiles tend to have normal distribution that would look like this:
x
xx
xxx
xxxx
xxxx
xxx
xx
x

Since majority of trades will be made in the "value" area.

If you want to read more about volume profiles and market profiles, I would recommend checking this author:
James F. Dalton
He has two books on this subject that are very good and will give good background on this subject.
Also FT71 talks about it a lot.


Take all this with a grain of salt!!
I am not an expert and also learning a lot.
Just wanted to share my experience, maybe it will help.
If not, then just ignore it.
Everyone have their own way of trading markets!

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Thanked by:
  #164 (permalink)
 
SoftSoap's Avatar
 SoftSoap 
Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: InteractiveBrokers
Trading: NQ
Posts: 594 since Aug 2015
Thanks Given: 347
Thanks Received: 1,227

  • Fiat & GM earnings both positive, green in pre-market
  • We could be opening at RTH all-time highs
  • Low range ON between 4905 and 4920
  • 24hr volume profile looks pretty balanced
  • Yesterday we had a 60+ bull move after a week and a half of bullish movements, will we continue this bull trend? or will we slow down as bigger players report earnings? Will some earnings be negative enough to move the market down?
  • Case-Shiller came in ~ expectations, right in the middle of consensus
  • Banks are slightly in the red this morning, apart from JPM
  • CL hit sup 50 yesterday, and currently getting close to the ~50 area again
  • We are ~60 pts above the 14 day VA
  • Longer term profiles could show we are either in the beginning of a break-out, or we will see a strong correction to the 4800s

News
  • AAPL earnings come out today - post close - treat it like big news. Will there be anything shown intraday though? iPhone sales perhaps? Some leaks?
  • Consumer confidence @ 10
  • Fed speaker at 1330

Scenarios
  1. Creeping bull day - Nothing news-wise bad enough to move the market down. Candles could look similar to yesterday
  2. Trend bull day
  3. Market looks for support and ranges between that an ON high or slightly above ON high
  4. Market looks for strong resistance and then ranges between that point and 4890 / 4900
  5. Trend bear day


Setups I'll take today


  1. ~4920 (ON High, All-time high)
    • LF Short
    • You want to see strong signs of exhaustion or aggressive selling
    • You need to see some higher time frame players stepping in to counter the current bull rally
    • Stop behind 4825 is ideal
    • Target ~14 pts depending on time should be safe, ~4902 stretch
    • You need to watch this trade carefully, specially ~ 4910 area in case you are just part of a pullback - be prepared to exit
  2. ~4920 (ON High, All-time high)
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for a break-out trade here
    • The sentiment should still be strong bull
    • Stop behind 4815 is ideal
    • Target ~14 safe, ~4839 stretch, leaving a runner if you expect a trend bull day could be up for consideration here
    • Be prepared to pass up on this setup if things don't look too strong
    • Don't get greedy on this pls
  3. ~4900
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for a break-down trade here
    • You are looking for a continuation of a strong bear trend
    • You might see a bit of resistance so be careful as to when you enter
    • If volume is low, then be extra careful
    • Do not enter this preemptively
    • You want to make sure that a bear move is strong enough to break the 4890 area
    • Watch the 4890 very close
    • Safe target is ~15 pts, Stretch target is ~4881
    • Be prepared to pass up on this
    • If the move down is very strong and it's looking like we are having a bear trend day, take 2 contracts - signs must be very strong to do this though
    • Guarantee at least 9 pts of profit with 1 contract as soon as you are able to
    • Leave the 2nd contract as a runner
    • Do not get greedy with this
    • Do not expect to take 2 contracts, but be prepared should things look good
  4. ~4900
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for signs of reversal
    • You want to see strong volume
    • Exhaustion is good enough to enter on this - unless AAPL earnings were lower than expected
    • If this is the first setup hit during the day, you want to see some higher time frame buying
    • Stop behind 4895 is ideal
    • Safe target is 14pts, stretch target is ~4918, should AAPL earnings be positive and all news is positive, you could consider leaving a runner - Think it through very carefully and move stop accordingly
    • Don't get too greedy with this
  5. ~4890
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for signs of reversal
    • You want to see strong volume
    • Exhaustion is good enough to enter on this - unless AAPL earnings were lower than expected
    • Stop behind 4885 is ideal
    • Safe target is 14pts, stretch target is ~4914
    • Don't get too greedy with this
  6. ~4890
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for a continuation of a strong bear trend
    • You don't want to see anything slowing things down
    • ~4900 zone should've been shattered
    • You might see a bit of resistance so be careful as to when you enter
    • You need to see higher time frame players stepping in to drive the market down
    • If volume is low, then be extra careful
    • Be prepared to pass up on this
  7. ~4850
    • LF Long
    • You want to see some strong buying here
    • Exhaustion might be good enough to enter
    • The later in the day, the better this setup becomes
    • Ideal stop behind 4843
    • Safe target is ~14 pts, stretch target is ~4868
  8. ~AAPL earnings
    • Treat it like a news setup
    • Be prepared to pass up on this

Things to watch @ open
  • Signs that we could have a trend day on our hands
  • We are at all-time highs, will we be hesitant to push higher? or will the market be comfortable pushing higher highs?
  • What will the opening range be?
  • Any strong profiles?
  • Total volume - will players step in right at the open, or will they be in wait and see mode for a specific price?

Psychology goals today
  • Do not look at P&L
  • 0 FOMO trades
  • 0 Emotional trades
  • Engage deliberate thinking in all trades
  • 2 trades max today - unless trend day and you won at least 1/2 trades - then 3 trades max
  • Abide by your new trade management standard
  • Do not get greedy with any of your trades

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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  #165 (permalink)
 
SoftSoap's Avatar
 SoftSoap 
Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: InteractiveBrokers
Trading: NQ
Posts: 594 since Aug 2015
Thanks Given: 347
Thanks Received: 1,227


sagor View Post
Wow, that was a super detailed answer, thank you for that and appreciate the time spent on writing it.

As for profile.
The way I see market is that it is an auction.
Sole purpose of auction is to connect buyers and sellers.
If there are a lot of buyers and sellers at one point, it means market is doing very good job. It means buyers and sellers both agree on that price, that it is perceived as value. The more time and volume we spend there, the more it becomes accepted.

So if I were to see profile like shown above, my guess would be that we poked higher and found buyers and sellers at that level, price was accepted. At some point we going to exhaust buyers and sellers at that level, and then market will have to poke higher or lower to explore if we have more market activity above or below current price.
So if profile looks like this:
xxxxx
xxxxxx
xxxxxxx
xxxxx
xxx
xx
xx
x

My guess would be that we can poke lower, and confirm that price below perceived as super cheap by buyers and quickly move up and then we going to explore higher.
Or we can poke higher, complete profile so to say (to make it balanced), find very motivated sellers and push prices back into recent value, potentially spending some more time in value and then poking higher again or moving the other direction lower to find more motivated buyers.

So, returning back to your first entry.
If you look at volume profile (first screenshot, lower left corner), you see that we have long tail at the bottom (shows super motivated buyer that just pushed prices higher very quickly), and then higher prices attracting volume and time, meaning higher prices are being accepted.
In my experience, it is very rare when prices would revert from profile like that, without firstly exploring higher to confirm that higher prices will cut off activity. So if I would wanted to get short, I would wait for that poke higher, seeing that higher prices cut off activity (lower volume, and preferably not spending time above as well and instead move lower back into value). That would also complete profile.
Majority of profiles tend to have normal distribution that would look like this:
x
xx
xxx
xxxx
xxxx
xxx
xx
x

Since majority of trades will be made in the "value" area.

If you want to read more about volume profiles and market profiles, I would recommend checking this author:
James F. Dalton
He has two books on this subject that are very good and will give good background on this subject.
Also FT71 talks about it a lot.


Take all this with a grain of salt!!
I am not an expert and also learning a lot.
Just wanted to share my experience, maybe it will help.
If not, then just ignore it.
Everyone have their own way of trading markets!

Good way to look at it. I'll be looking to read more about volume profile once I feel pretty confident with it. I want the experts to improve my view on things and not define it, that's why I haven't done much 'formal' research

Cheers!

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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  #166 (permalink)
 
SoftSoap's Avatar
 SoftSoap 
Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: InteractiveBrokers
Trading: NQ
Posts: 594 since Aug 2015
Thanks Given: 347
Thanks Received: 1,227

I got bad sleep last night and wasn't really in the trading mood today. I debated not trading but I thought ahh why not.
Made some $ today, but overall not a good psychology performance. 2 trades taken, 1 win and 1 loss.

First trade



Trade Grade - Ok
  • It may or may not have been part of the plan
  • Some signs were there, but it felt like a 51/49 gamble
  • Decent (but not good) target and/or stop

Second trade




Trade Grade - Good
  • It was in the plan
  • Observed signs of entry
  • Good target and stop

Psychology goals today
  • Do not look at P&L- Passed
  • 0 FOMO trades- Failed
  • 0 Emotional trades- Failed
  • Engage deliberate thinking in all trades- Passed
  • 2 trades max today - unless trend day and you won at least 1/2 trades - then 3 trades max- Passed
  • Abide by your new trade management standard- Passed
  • Do not get greedy with any of your trades- Failed

So I took a FOMO and an emotional trade today, and I got greedy with one of my trades. Gotta get myself back in the game, I didn't get punished $-wise today but I didn't meet my expectations.

See you tomorrow!

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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  #167 (permalink)
 
KahunaDog's Avatar
 KahunaDog 
Hawaii at the beach
 
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You are definately improving whether or not you've seen it in P&L

Fall Seven Get Up Eight
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  #168 (permalink)
 
SoftSoap's Avatar
 SoftSoap 
Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: InteractiveBrokers
Trading: NQ
Posts: 594 since Aug 2015
Thanks Given: 347
Thanks Received: 1,227


KahunaDog View Post
You are definately improving whether or not you've seen it in P&L

Thanks, I appreciate the feedback.

I feel more in control of myself as of lately, and I'm sure my P&L will start showing it as time goes by.

Cheers.

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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Thanked by:
  #169 (permalink)
 
SoftSoap's Avatar
 SoftSoap 
Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: InteractiveBrokers
Trading: NQ
Posts: 594 since Aug 2015
Thanks Given: 347
Thanks Received: 1,227

One of my friends is moving to Toronto so he had a going away party last night. I went but didn't drink or anything because I did want to trade this morning, but we still got home late.
I was so tired when my alarm rang, so I just decided I wasn't going to trade the markets today.

Historically speaking, when I'm really exhausted and I trade the markets I tend to be more susceptible to emotional volatility

I just woke up and I haven't even had breakfast yet. Sure I'll miss a day of trading but there'll be many more opportunities to trade.

I won't lie, I felt a bit anxious this morning as I feel like anytime the markets are open I need to be at my desk. So I'll have to find a way to get used to it in the future. One of the downsides of working from home I guess.

I'll relax a bit this morning, and do some trading-related stuff in the afternoon.

Cheers.

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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  #170 (permalink)
 
SoftSoap's Avatar
 SoftSoap 
Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: InteractiveBrokers
Trading: NQ
Posts: 594 since Aug 2015
Thanks Given: 347
Thanks Received: 1,227


  • ON session quite bullish
  • From daily charts either the ON session was a pullback from a bear trend, or the last 2 days were pullbacks from the higher time framed bull trend
  • Currently range @ 34/47 ATR
  • 14 day RTH VA between 4859 and 4792
  • 14 day RTH VPOC at 4832
  • CELG earnings beat estimates, up 3.65% pre-market
  • TSLA up 3.7% premarket
  • QCOM up 3.01% premarket

News
  • AMZN reports today after the bell
  • Pending home sales @1030
  • Japan information tonight - do not leave any ON trades
  • With AMZN and Japan info coming out after the close, and the GDP report morning tomorrow - we may see some cautiousness in the market

Scenarios
  • Continue bull trend @ open until we find strong resistance either at ~4880 or ~4890, then range between that and ~4840 or ~4850 - similar day to yesterday
  • Creeping bull day - similar to Monday where market just kept going up and reversal signs didn't really mean much
  • Trend bull day

Setups I'll take today

  1. ~4920
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for strong
    • Ideal stop behind 4825
    • Safe target ~4903, stretch target ~ 4894
  2. ~4900
    • LF Short
    • You might see a bit of resistance so be careful as to when you enter
    • If volume is low, then be extra careful
    • Can enter preemptively if signs are strong enough
    • Be careful of entry as the RTH all time highs 4907.50 - You could take the entry closer to the 4905 mark
    • Watch the 4890 very close
    • Safe target is ~15 pts, Stretch target is ~4881
  3. ~4895
    • LF Short
    • You want to see some strong signs of a reversal
    • Ideal stop is behind 4900
    • Safe target is ~13 pts, stretch target is ~4876
    • Be prepared to pass up on this as 4900 setup is quite close
  4. ~4880
    • LF Short
    • You need to see some aggressive selling
    • Exhaustion might not be strong enough to enter, use context
    • You want to feel comfortable that we aren't going to have a day like Monday
    • Stop behind 4883 is a must
    • Target ~14 pts depending on time should be safe, ~4861 stretch, 4853 if super strong bear trend
    • You need to feel very confident about this if you are going to enter - Be prepared to pass up on this
  5. ~4880
    • LF Long
    • You want to see some very strong buying
    • Market sentiment must be very strongly bullish as 4890 and 4900 are strong
    • Stop behind 4875 is ideal
    • Safe target is ~4893 - but you must watch this very closely and ready to exit at anytime
    • You need to feel very confident about this if you are going to enter - Be prepared to pass up on this
  6. ~4840
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for signs of reversal
    • You want to see strong volume
    • You want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy
    • However, yesterday exhaustion was good enough 2 times to enter, so consider that
    • Stop behind 4835 is ideal
    • Safe target is 4857, stretch target is ~4868, if market is veru strong then 4878
    • Don't get too greedy with this
  7. ~4840
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for a continuation of a strong bear trend
    • You don't want to see anything slowing things down
    • You might see a bit of resistance so be careful as to when you enter
    • You need to see higher time frame players stepping in to drive the market down
    • If volume is low, then be extra careful
    • Safe target is ~4826, stretch ~4819 and if the market is very strong ~4804
    • Be prepared to pass up on this
  8. ~4820
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for signs of reversal
    • You want to see strong volume
    • You want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy
    • Strong exhaustion might be good enough to enter this
    • Stop behind 4815 is ideal
    • Safe target is ~4834, stretch target is ~4842, 4848 if bull move is very strong
    • Don't get too greedy with this
  9. ~4800
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for signs of reversal
    • You want to see strong volume
    • You want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy
    • Exhaustion isn't good enough to enter this
    • Stop behind 4796 is ideal
    • Safe target is ~4814, stretch target is ~4824
    • Don't get too greedy with this

Psychology goals today
  • Do not look at P&L
  • 0 FOMO trades
  • 0 Emotional trades
  • Engage deliberate thinking in all trades
  • 2 trades max today - unless trend day and you won at least 1/2 trades - then 3 trades max
  • Abide by your new trade management standard
  • Do not get greedy with any of your trades

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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Last Updated on September 4, 2017


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