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Hell man...This is one thing I have been grappling with mentally. Holy smokes, this ain't easy in my case. I am trying to "let them come to me", but I too get that impatient bug.
Hey, I hope you can slay this particular dragon...It's a bugger in my side for sure! I do be rooting for you Soap!
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
So this week I will not be actively trading. I won't be watching every tick in the market and I'll be focusing on my psychology for the most part.
However, if a good enough setup shows up I will take it.
Looking at things right now, the AT high was hit at night and I made the conscious decision last night not to set an entry ON at the AT highs. This is because of the bull rally we had last week.
To be honest I'm a bit surprised the zone was hit and still held. Things are currently trending bear before the market opens.
If I do take a trade it will be one of the following 3 trades:
~4840 area (AT Highs)
Do not enter preemptively- Some signs need to be there to take this trade
LF short
Only take it if the bull move that got us here is weak
Signs of exhaustion are not good enough to take this trade, you want to see force driving the price down. Do not let a bit of hope cloud your judgment as creepers could take out your stop easily
Take it as close to the high of 4841.75
Look for a stop of at least 4855.25
Aim for target of at least 4828
Do not take this trade if it's late in the afternoon session
If we do take out this AT high very fast - do not take a breakout trade. Pass up on that, we are too close to Wednesday for a setup like this to be likely
~4805-4800 area
Do not enter preemptively - A lot of signs need to be there to take this trade
You want to see signs of Long term player activity stepping in the market
Entry might be tricky as you might need a bigger stop than usual
Do not enter preemptively- Some signs should be there to take this trade
Similar to above you want to see signs of a long term player stepping into the market
If it is late in the session you want to see signs that the bearish move is over. Aim for target of ~4813
You can hold this trade overnight if you have a couple of points your way before the close
What I'll be looking out for at the open:
How fast will price rebound to new AT highs? Will we see a big jump riding the hope from last week? Will we show hesitation in breaking new AT highs before Wednesday?
What will be the volume #? Will the volume settle down in preparation for the announcement on Wednesday?
What zones will show signs of support?
Overall I want to get an idea on whether or not the market has already priced out the Wednesday move.
Here are the alarms I have set up on NinjaTrader in case price does hit any of the points that I should be watching
You'll notice they are only related to the 3 setups I have above, and not every X points or so
Psychology goals for the day
2 trades maximum
0 FOMO or emotional trades
Do not look for other setups apart from the 3 listed above
DO not worry about looking at the market constantly, you have set your alarms to let you know that you should be watching the market
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
The overall morning volume is very low in comparison to last week.
The move from 4830 to 4836 saw very little volume, but we started seeing stronger signs of resistance near the 4838-4840 area.
I'm seeing some signs of volume being absorbed at the top (the arrows in my SS below). It doesn't seem like much in comparison to last week's profile but with a lot less volume than last week it is a good sign
I'm seeing enough to feel comfortable taking a trade around this area
Action
I'm going to set an order at the ON high of 4841.75. I'm aware that this might not fill today but my goal is not to secure a fill, my goal is to secure a winning trade and this entry point will be very comfortable so I could hit a minimum stop of 4855.25.
If this doesn't get filled within 30 minutes, I will take out my order and set new alarms to re-assess the situation if we do come close to this area again
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Do not look for other setups apart from the 3 listed above - Passed, although I was tempted once
DO not worry about looking at the market constantly, you have set your alarms to let you know that you should be watching the market - Passed
Overall I felt very calm today. I took 0 trades but there were 2 setups that I wanted to take and created entries for, but I did not get a fill for either of them unfortunately. There'll be lots of opportunities in the future though.
I'll detail the points where I thought about entering into a trade.
Short at ~4840 area
Decided to take but no fill - would've been winning trade
This was in my plan, the signs were there, and I entered an order at 4841.75 which was the high overnight. Unfortunately I didn't fill
Short at 4822
Thought about it but didn't enter - would've been winning trade
I looked at this for about 30 seconds and told myself that if I was actively trading I would take this because the way volume was being absorbed at the time, but then I said no way this wasn't in my plan at all so I passed up on it.
Long at 4805
Decided not to take - would've been losing trade
I looked at this and felt a bit of FOMO but the signs were very clearly not there, I'm lucky that they were so obvious because I was feeling FOMOish haha
Long at 4802
Decided not to take - would've been losing trade
Debated a better entry possibly thinking that we were going to be moving up now. Decided against it because the signs were just not strong enough
Long at 4780-4790
Decided to take at a lower entry - 100% depends on entry and target price whether it would've been a winning or losing trade
My alarm rang at 4790 and I wanted to take a trade but I felt that price was going to dip lower, I was right so I'm glad I didn't take it at 4790
I was hoping for price to go lower than it did as I entered an order at 4782.50. I didn't end up getting a fill although I came very close
3 things I did well today
I was patient
I developed a good plan
I triggered my conscious decision making process, no emotional or FOMO trades
3 things I could improve on
I'm going to avoid these today because my goal was to not actively trade and I had 0 trades. Yes I missed some opportunities but I didn't commit any fomo, emotional, or execution errors
Summary: I'm happy today. I didn't make money but I had the right idea and read the market pretty well. I understand that triggering my deliberate thinking will mean I will miss out on some trades, but there'll be so many opportunities that I don't need to catch them all. My goal is long-term growth and not short-term profits, so I feel that today got me closer to that long-term growth goal.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Referring to FT71's last webinar, he says we should think about our state of mind when we follow our plan or take a good trade, bad trade, etc.
Today I followed my plan, and although I didn't get filled on the 2 trades I wanted to take, I still followed my plan.
Here's what my state of mind felt like today, refer to this in the future:
Calm - I did not think about where the market was going, how fast, etc. I knew I had alarms in places to make decisions and I trusted that
Happy - I was in a good mood today and I wasn't in front of the computer the whole time so I was able to do some other things that make me happier (walk my dog and cook a nice meal for example)
I was ok with missing out on a trade - The first trade I wanted to take would've been a winner, it also could've been a bigger than usual winner. However that didn't bother me. I reminded myself that there'll be more opportunities when I missed the trade and after a minute or 2 I didn't care
I took time making a decision - I didn't feel pressure to make a decision this second, I didn't feel stress, nothing. I just took the necessary time and unfortunately it wasn't fast enough but I'll get faster with time.
Just my first point of reference but I'll be doing this more to try and get a good idea of things.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
