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Missed my first short trade and here's my second, I could be reading the market wrong as I am expecting things to turn around slightly
Looks like the bull move is exhausting itself so I entered into a short position expecting a reversalSo here;'s my entry, 4799.25 which is currently the high, so I got very lucky with a fill
So far the signs look good, the volume profile @ 30 minute interval shows that the market will reverse. I’m comfortable with my stop but I will have to watch at around the 4795 and the 4790 area to see if someone will step in to turn the trend around again
We'll have to see how things keep moving along, so far we are seeing a bit of resistance at around the 4795 area but I have not yet seen strong signs that I'm wrong on my entry strategy
Edit: 1012 EST
Market is moving my way but not as fast as I would've wanted it to. I won't lie and there's a bit of me that just wants to take the W but I still have yet to find a reason as to why I'm proven wrong.
I also have as good of an entry as I can have with the current high of the day to the tick, so why exit now?
The 15 minute profiles show some bulls holding up the market, but overall bearish sentiment to me
Once the bulls get too tired, we should trend down, or at least that's my thinking
Edit: 10:30 EST
Market tested the 4790 zone and moved up from that, but it doesn't seem strong enough to counter the bear trend, at least not yet. Still holding. I'm going to set some alarms at certain areas and step away for a couple of minutes after the results from the dallas fed mfg are discussed
Edit: 10:52 EST
Market came down to 4788 then moved up 6 points after that. Definitely not what I want to see but I still have not seen anything that proves my entry strategy wrong, I still read things as the market will keep trending bear at least for the next while.
One thing I also have that's positive is the EU open was very bullish so when the EU close comes around, I'm expecting those who were thinking we might have a bull move to at least the 4810 zone to get out before they go home, as they might feel that this will be a balance day.
As always, these are pure assumptions
Edit: 11:37 EST
Okay so now looking at things I'm starting to have some doubts about the market dropping as much as I expected and having mixed signals.
The 24 hr chart is telling me to hold on to this as the bear move will continue at least 10 more points.
My volume profile is showing me that the bears are hesitant to drive down the market further
The volume count tells me that when prices drop we see an increase in buying, so the bulls > bears
My 5 minute candle tells me that the bear move has slowed down a bit and the wicks are now reversing
The 15 minute candle is showing that the trend is now reversing
Looking at fundamentals everything in the NQ is up apart from bio
Looking at the other indexes there is a pretty strong bull rally
The thing that is holding me back quite a bit is the fact that I'm short on the to top of the day so far.
Honestly right now I'm very unsure as to what to do...
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Ugh I got stopped out. I was very confident in this trade as for 2 hours things were looking good, but the last 10 minutes pushed the market 9 points and destroyed the move. I'm pretty upset about this to be honest because I was debating getting out but I had conflicting viewpoints in my chart.
I think I let the fact that I had such a good entry point cloud my judgment to be honest, the other 2 major US indexes are up quite a bit and the NQ was lagging behind but it's only going to be some time before the NQ catches up trend wise.
Sigh...
Error here - Failure to Adapt
Trade grade - Good
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
I debated going short at around the 4804 mark but chose against it as the volume today is very low and I'm not convinced we would hit the 4790 area again today. Currently the market is at 4798 and I'm not seeing any signs that it's going to drop 8-10 points so I'm okay with passing on that trade.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Reading this and looking at it now as I now see a different story. Right now I have a clear head and no skin in the game.
24hr chart isn't very indicative of the overall trend, specially on a low volume day, and the open today was quite weak. This shouldn't have been part of my decision
Literally everything else on that list except for the last point is telling me to exit the trade as the bear move has been exhausted
Instead, I grabbed on to the one very positive thing which was my entry, and used that as confirmation bias to not get out of the trade
Hindsight is 20/20 I guess
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Market was very slow today and I only took 2 trades.
1 rational trade and 1 mixed trade.
I expected a balance session today and we definitely got it, too bad I miscalculated where the bottom and tops of the session were going to be
Day range is ~ATR but the RTH range is ~20pts, so quite low
3 things I did well today
0 emotional trades
I’m quite happy with one of the entry points I had for my 2nd trade, didn’t end up being a winner but for 2 hours out of the 2 hours and 15 minutes I was in the trade, I had good execution. With a few improvements I can turn this into a winning trade in the future
I walked away for a bit after I got stopped out on my 2nd trade as I was pretty grumpy due to lack of sleep and a failed trade haha. This may not sound like a win to some but sometimes lack of sleep combined with a trade you felt really good about being stopped out, can lead to a spiral of bad trades
3 things I can improve on
My first trade had some signs but not enough signs that I would’ve very comfortable taking that trade, it was definitely a bit of a FOMO mistake by my end there, and although it was a small loss it was still a trade I shouldn’t have taken
I need to speed up my decision making, I can blame it on the sleep all I want but the truth is I’m not a fast decision maker. I need to be able to look at the data in front of me and make a quick decision on whether or not to enter, stay, or exit a trade. I even made a comment as I was in a trade and it was moving against me that I didn’t know what to do. By doing that, I left my trade to chance, and I’m in the trading business not the gambling business
I need to work on leaving the last trade behind and only focusing on the trade ahead of me. Part of the reason why I hesitated shorting at 4804 was because I had lost my last 2 trades and I wasn’t 100% comfortable about taking this trade although all the signs were there, mainly because of the low volume. Had I not thought about those other 2 trades I would’ve most likely entered into a winning trade
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Bad day today, I didn't follow my plan and I'm pretty disappointed about it. I chased the trade.
Going with my plan I should've only taken 2 trades today, Long at 4790 and Long at 4761.
I took the long at 4790, it didn't turn out well so the right move was to exit early, which I did
Then I felt a strong bear move coming but I shouldn't have taken a bear trade, at least not until my 'feeling' was proven right
I ended up taking 2 shorts within the balance area, so both got stopped out . 1 of them was 2 ticks of a stop away from making it through (I lowered my stop by 4 ticks, bad decision) and then it trended down 25 points. That really got to me.
I then said 4775 zone, don't rely on it it is weak, but I entered a long position anyways - bad move
So I walked away but set an order at 4761 for a long position.
The market was bouncing around at around 2EST and I took a trade at 4767.00, not part of my plan with a stop of 4761. I only took this trade because I felt FOMOish and I wanted to end positive today - bad reasoning
I got stopped out 15 minutes later and never got back into that 4761 position. The market dropped to 4759.75 and is now at 4768.75, and the bull trend looks like it might continue into tomorrow. If I were in this trade right now I'd set my target at around the 4786 area and leave the trade ON, I don't see us hitting the 4755 area before hitting 4786, but I'm not in that trade.
In case the market drops 10 points I've set a long order at 4759 but I'm walking away for the day, I feel deflated to be honest.
The psychological side of trading is always difficult, but for me it's the most difficult when all I had to do was stick to my plan to have a good day.
For those reading who had issues with holding themselves back from taking trades and were able to get over that, how did you deal with it?
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
Took a long position that went my way for a couple of pts and then I saw the signs to get out and I got out- good market reading avoiding a loss
Walked away after taking 2 really bad trades
No third
3 things I need to improve on
Sticking to my plan, why prepare if I'm not going to follow it
Understanding when I should walk away because I'm not emotionally strong enough to stick to my plan
FOMO
I think one thing that has impacted my performance negatively this week is that it's nearly the end of the month. This will most likely be the first month since I started trading that I end positive and I'm currently on a drawdown so my mind has gone into loss aversion mode as opposed to just being normal.
When I'm in that mode, even a small loss gets to me because I don't want any losses.
Not a good mode to be in, if I still feel like that in a couple of hours I will just 'end' the month today and start a new month tomorrow.
Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
