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SoftSoap's NQ Journey - from SoftSoap to SoftGold
Started:August 28th, 2016 (01:13 PM) by SoftSoap Views / Replies:11,577 / 260
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SoftSoap's NQ Journey - from SoftSoap to SoftGold

Old October 31st, 2016, 04:22 PM   #181 (permalink)
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davidtaylor View Post
If you're an intraday swing trader, learning to read the order flow in the DOM isn't that relevant. It's useful for impending news, via the liquidity reducing but otherwise, it's a niche and style appropriate for short term scalping. Personally, I love it, but I'm a short term scalper.

It's really important that you specialize and leverage your interests and strengths. If the DOM doesn't immediately jump out at you as really useful and really interesting, it'll be hard to stick with it and develop an edge, you may also not be interested in short term scalping full stop. Many aren't.

In summary, if you want to develop yourself as a short term scalper, it's essential. If not, it's a distraction.

Obviously I don't know much about reading order flow so this might be a stupid question. I'm not a scalper so I don't need it for scalping, but I have been told on ways it could be useful for traders like myself.

But wouldn't the ability to read the order flow give you a good idea of the general sentiment? Also, if you are looking for reversals, would this not give you the ability to actually see how many more buyers are stepping in than sellers? I know the difference will eventually show up on the candle sticks, but my understanding is that it is delayed where as the tape is more 'live'.

I hope I'm making sense :Sarcastic:

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Old October 31st, 2016, 04:47 PM   #182 (permalink)
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... if you are looking for reversals, would this not give you the ability to actually see how many more buyers are stepping in than sellers? I know the difference will eventually show up on the candle sticks, but my understanding is that it is delayed where as the tape is more 'live'.

That's my original reason for me getting into orderflow. Note that I am also an intra-day swing trader, like you, trying to catch a big fish of 10+pts.

I am submitting 3 exhibits. There are several ways to look at order flow and I like this method of circles with buyers as white and sellers as red. Size of the circle represents the volume traded. It makes sense to me (after wasting so much time with other views, but this may change too).

I am attaching the RTH session in image 1.

Then you will see the LOD from this morning and HOD before EU close. How likely is that we can pick up the reversals from orderflow.

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However, I was able to pick those reversal points, not from orderflow but from my contextual reading or by sheer luck. i.e where we are in the bigger picture, election timing, recent clinton news and Friday's price action, today's relative volume, today's VIX compared to friday's spike and finally the relation of HOD with regards to ONH and also EU close. Though I looked for 'signs of reversal', in reality, I have no idea why market turned at those points. I expected market to turn and it did. Then I looked for evidence to support my thesis in orderflow and I felt like a hero. Obviously, I don't want to talk about the countless days when I felt stupid.

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Old October 31st, 2016, 05:28 PM   #183 (permalink)
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SoftSoap View Post
Obviously I don't know much about reading order flow so this might be a stupid question. I'm not a scalper so I don't need it for scalping, but I have been told on ways it could be useful for traders like myself.

But wouldn't the ability to read the order flow give you a good idea of the general sentiment? Also, if you are looking for reversals, would this not give you the ability to actually see how many more buyers are stepping in than sellers? I know the difference will eventually show up on the candle sticks, but my understanding is that it is delayed where as the tape is more 'live'.

I hope I'm making sense :Sarcastic:

I use the DOM as my primary tool for viewing markets. I love it. You can see the interactions between buyers and sellers. Consider that in a price chart you only see that the NQ went up 6 ticks, in the DOM you saw why and how. That information, to somebody who spends a lot of time viewing these things, is very useful in determining the control and control shifts in the market. In other words, yes, it's an extremely effective way to view general sentiment to the practiced viewer. In order that the information can be used effectively though, it requires extensive experience. To read order flow fluently, that is, to be able to take into account everything happening in a DOM without thought and instantaneously, takes practice.

My point with scalping is that, if you want to look for reversals in the DOM, you will have to observe it enough that you can intuitively recognise the patterns in the order flow in the DOM that signal a reversal is likely, at which point why would you need anything else? You may as well scalp the reversal and forget all your other tools. Imagine though, to have such an edge will take a lot of work and specialisation, it's not something to add lightly is all.

Two things with reversals. One, the strongest reversal is one where the buying and selling imbalance is so strong, that there isn't much volume traded there. The other type of reversal that is common, is a lot of volume near the lows, whereby a big trader is trapping a lot of sellers, and then squeezing them, they are forced to puke their positions and that forces the market higher, creating a chain reaction of the previous shorts folding.

A simplistic way people use the DOM is to say, "2000 lots hit into the bid and it was an iceberg", well, so what? There was a guy buying 2K lots and another guy willing to sell aggressively 2K lots, it only matters if you've viewed that market a lot and the DOM a lot and can recognise patterns that have an edge.

I hope I am making sense too, it's hard to articulate something which you've learnt by observation.

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Old October 31st, 2016, 05:49 PM   #184 (permalink)
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That's my original reason for me getting into orderflow. Note that I am also an intra-day swing trader, like you, trying to catch a big fish of 10+pts.

I am submitting 3 exhibits. There are several ways to look at order flow and I like this method of circles with buyers as white and sellers as red. Size of the circle represents the volume traded. It makes sense to me (after wasting so much time with other views, but this may change too).

I am attaching the RTH session in image 1.

Then you will see the LOD from this morning and HOD before EU close. How likely is that we can pick up the reversals from orderflow.

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However, I was able to pick those reversal points, not from orderflow but from my contextual reading or by sheer luck. i.e where we are in the bigger picture, election timing, recent clinton news and Friday's price action, today's relative volume, today's VIX compared to friday's spike and finally the relation of HOD with regards to ONH and also EU close. Though I looked for 'signs of reversal', in reality, I have no idea why market turned at those points. I expected market to turn and it did. Then I looked for evidence to support my thesis in orderflow and I felt like a hero. Obviously, I don't want to talk about the countless days when I felt stupid.

I too have countless days where I feel stupid, and I'm still learning to read the order flow, I don't want to pretend to be an expert. In my opinion, those charts are a pretty poor way to view order flow but, I mean, yeah there is no silver lining it's a terrible way to view it, sorry lol. In your example of the LOD, the actual LOD was created on a large abnormal volume spike. I can't say whether it would of been a tradeable opportunity without seeing the DOM though, but if volume spikes below the current LOD and large sellers are aggressively absorbed by buyers, then, you have a lot of contracts short in horrible positions and they will be forced to puke, pushing price higher, which then has an effect on all the people short from the prior swing lower... I am not advocating using order flow to swing trade by the way, just analysing the example you've provided with the huge benefit given by hindsight.

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Old October 31st, 2016, 08:07 PM   #185 (permalink)
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Thanks for the advice guys, it's very helpful!
I do think I'll start to dive in a bit into learning DOM and order flow, but I am not expecting it to change my trading much, but simply complement it.


I will prepare myself for the countless days that I will feel stupid with it though

Cheers @davidtaylor @Narcissus

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Old October 31st, 2016, 08:46 PM   #186 (permalink)
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2016-10-31 Summary

Boooooring day today, 25 RTH range. I went out Friday and Saturday last week so I didn't want to get up this morning, and now I wish I slept in instead

0 trades taken today. 1 setup got hit at 2 different times, and I passed up on it both times.

First opportunity - Passed

What I was looking for, from this morning's prep:

Quoting 
~4800
  • LF Long
  • You are looking for strong signs of reversal
  • You want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy
  • You need to feel confident that the force coming in is quite strong
  • Ideal stop is 1-2 pts behind the ON low of 4795, but might be tough to get
  • Safe target is ~4814, stretch target is 19 pts
  • Be prepared to pass up on this setup

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This trade might've worked out but it would've been very tight and would've required that I ignore some signs and not move my stop at all to secure a profit after 10 pts, which I said I would do in my psychology goals
Also, I could not have gotten greedy on this or it would've turned into a loss.

Honestly it doesn't bother me that I passed on this win or lose, because it didn't meet my requirements.

Second opportunity - Passed

Market came back down to this again
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For an area that broke over night, was tested today already, and tested and broken multiple times on Friday, I need to see stronger signs to take a trade like this.

End of day screenshot


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Psychology goals today
  • Do not look at P&L- Passed
  • 0 FOMO trades- Passed
  • 0 Emotional trades- Passed
  • Engage deliberate thinking in all trades- Passed
  • 2 trades max today - unless you won at least 1/2 trades and youy have a very good setup - then 3 trades max
  • Abide by your new trade management standard- Passed
  • Do not get greedy with any of your trades - see below for more detail- Passed
  • Additional based on weekly psychology goals - Maximum of 19 pt targets today with the exception of 1 setup (4840 short). Guarantee a profit after 10 pts (set alarm for this).- Passed

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Old November 1st, 2016, 03:07 AM   #187 (permalink)
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SoftSoap View Post
Thanks for the advice guys, it's very helpful!
I do think I'll start to dive in a bit into learning DOM and order flow, but I am not expecting it to change my trading much, but simply complement it. @davidtaylor @Narcissus

Good luck. You have all the ingredients to be successful in trading. I am sure you will find the right use of DOM as well.

Apologies for cluttering your journal. I was supposed to post my Bookmap pictures & comments in my journal and then notify you. Will be more careful next time.

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Old November 1st, 2016, 10:21 AM   #188 (permalink)
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2016-11-01 Prep

  • ON session stayed mostly within yesterday's RTH range
  • Yesterday showed hesitancy to stay above 4800, stayed within range of ON session
  • 14 day VA between 4800 and 4860
  • ~14 day VPOC ~4830
  • 4800 has been tested 5 times in last 2.5 days, and slightly broken ~10 times, shattered 4 times
  • YHOO down 1.5% in pre open
  • No change on BOJ announcement
  • Japan and China info ON came in slightly better than consensus
  • CL sub ~47 after big move down yesterday on OPEC deal doubts
  • GC up 1.2% pre open

News
  • PMI Manufacturing Index @ 945
  • ISM Manufacturing Index @ 10
  • Construction Spending @ 10
  • GILD corporate earnings post close

Scenarios
  1. Rally at open until either ON or ATH PDH, then range between that point and 4800
  2. Open bear past the 4800, find some strong support at 4790 and range between that and ON high or ATH PDH
  3. Open up strong bear, shatter 4800, struggle a bit ~4790 and ~4780, but then breakdown to ~4760, slow down there
  4. Strong rally until ~4840 area, then trend bear for the rest of the day after that
  5. Rally up a bit during open but market doesn't even get to ON high, then we buckle in for a big trend down
  6. Strong bear move down right off open, start showing signs of slowing down at ~4790 and then big reversal signs at ~4790, end above 4800
  7. Slowly rally until either ON high or ATH PDH, then balance around there until end of day


Setups I'll take today

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  1. ~4880
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for reversal signs
    • Be prepared for this as we might see some higher time frame players stepping in to sell around this
    • If we are in the middle of a trend bull day, be extra careful taking this
    • Stop behind 4883 is a must
    • Safe target ~13 pts, stretch target ~19 pts
  2. ~4840
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for signs of a reversal
    • There might be strength coming into the trade, but you need to see strength resisting this move
    • Aggressive selling would be ideal to look for here
    • Stop behind 4845 is ideal
    • Safe target is ~14 pts, stretch target is ~4821. This is the only trade you can take a 3rd target but you must secure a 10 pt profit to do so. The 3rd target can be 4811 (do not get greedier than this)
    • Watch the 4830 area for a sign that you just entered into a pullback
    • Don't force this setup just because it could be your most profitable. Read and interpret the signs the market is giving you, and then act
  3. ~4840
    • LF Long
    • LF break out signs
    • You'd like to see the the ON and ATH PDH zone shattered
    • Ideally you'd like to see the ES break out of a strong resistance zone as well, and not close to one
    • Be very careful taking this if the signs are pointing towards us having a range day
    • Stop behind 4835 is ideal
    • Safe target is ~13 pts,
    • Stretch target is 4857
    • Watch the 4850 area for a chance of reversal
    • Keep an eye out for anything news-related that could turn the trend in an instant
  4. ~4820 (ON & RTH PDH)
    • LF Short
    • You want to see some strong selling here
    • You'd like to see signs of slowing down earlier, but exhaustion isn't good enough to enter into this setup
    • Stop behind 4826 is ideal
    • Safe target is 14 pts, stretch target is 4802
    • Be prepared to pass up on this
  5. ~4820 (ON & RTH PDH)
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for signs that the bull move is going to continue
    • You want to see extra volume and buyers aggressively buying that additional volume
    • Stop behind 4815 is ideal but be careful about entering this preemptively
    • Safe target is ~14 pts, stretch target is 4838, do not get greedy with this
    • You need to watch 4825 and 4830 very closely and be ready to exit at anytime
    • Be prepared to pass up on this
  6. ~4800
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for strong signs of reversal
    • You want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy
    • You need to feel confident that the force coming in is quite strong as this has been tested and broken multiple times
    • Ideal stop is 1-2 pts behind 4795, but might be tough to get
    • Safe target is ~4814, stretch target is 19 pts, if this is hit during the morning and the move up after we hit this is very strong you can consider taking a 3rd stretch target of 4823,but you must secure a 10pt profit
    • Be prepared to pass up on this setup
  7. ~4790
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for strong signs of reversal
    • You want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy
    • You need to feel confident that the force coming in is quite strong
    • Ideal stop is behind 4784.50
    • Safe target is ~4806, stretch target is 19 pts, if this is hit during the morning and the move up after we hit this is very strong you can consider taking a 3rd stretch target of 4818,but you must secure a 10pt profit
    • You must watch the 4800 area closely to ensure you didn't get into a pullback - be prepared to exit at anytime
  8. ~4780
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for strong signs of reversal
    • You want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy
    • You need to feel confident that the force coming in is quite strong
    • Ideal stop is behind 4775
    • Safe target is ~4794, stretch target is 19 pts, if this is hit during the morning and the move up after we hit this is very strong you can consider taking a 3rd stretch target of 4814 ,but you must secure a 10pt profit
    • Be careful if we shattered 4800 and didn't struggle much or see higher time frame activity at 4790
  9. ~4780
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for a breakdown trade here
    • The 4800, ON Low, and 4790 area should've been shattered with very little time support
    • Stop behind 4780 is a must
    • Safe target is ~13 pts, stretch target is ~4761
    • You must watch the 4775-4770 area closely if you entered before it
    • You must feel that we are having a trend bear day in order to take this
  10. ~4760
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for strong signs of a reversal
    • Safe target ~17 pts, stretch target is 4787
    • The later in the day, the better this setup becomes

Things to watch @ open
  • Total volume - any people wanting to take bets on tomorrow?
  • Volume profiles - any sign of a trend day?
  • Opening range - Will we see strong uncertainty? Or will the market be quite certain as to where to go?

Psychology goals today
  • Do not look at P&L
  • 0 FOMO trades
  • 0 Emotional trades
  • Engage deliberate thinking in all trades
  • 2 trades max today - unless you won at least 1/2 trades and youy have a very good setup - then 3 trades max
  • Abide by your new trade management standard
  • Do not get greedy with any of your trades - see below for more detail
  • Additional based on weekly psychology goals - If there are strong enough signs that you can take a stretch or a stretch+ target, you need to secure 8-10 pts of profit through your stop (8 for stretch, 10 for stretch+). However, don't do this blindly. If it doesn't look like you will be placing your stop in a good area that isn't likely to be hit, then don't take the stretch targets and stay conservative

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Old November 1st, 2016, 10:44 AM   #189 (permalink)
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Narcissus View Post
Good luck. You have all the ingredients to be successful in trading. I am sure you will find the right use of DOM as well.

Apologies for cluttering your journal. I was supposed to post my Bookmap pictures & comments in my journal and then notify you. Will be more careful next time.

Thanks!

Don't even worry about it. Honestly, I enjoy discussion with pictures in my journal as those are all good things to refer back to in the future. So it's actually more helpful to put it on here.

Cheers.

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Old November 1st, 2016, 08:30 PM   #190 (permalink)
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2016-11-01 Summary


What a day today, some very good opportunities today. Unfortunately I finished 0/2 in trades, but they were both 'good' trades. My mistake today was that I didn't read the market properly, that's going to happen

First trade opportunity - Passed

First setup hit was the ~4800, here's what I had in my trading plan:


Quoting 
~4800
  • LF Long
  • You are looking for strong signs of reversal
  • You want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy
  • You need to feel confident that the force coming in is quite strong as this has been tested and broken multiple times
  • Ideal stop is 1-2 pts behind 4795, but might be tough to get
  • Safe target is ~4814, stretch target is 19 pts, if this is hit during the morning and the move up after we hit this is very strong you can consider taking a 3rd stretch target of 4823,but you must secure a 10pt profit
  • Be prepared to pass up on this setup

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Honestly not much to write on the charts but as I was watching things looked pretty bearish and I said no way the ~4800 will see a reversal. I even wanted to take a short at 4806 but no way I was going to take a trade outside of my plan, and slightly above a potential reversal zone, even if I wasn't expecting a reversal :Sarcastic:

Really good read though as I would've been stopped out pretty fast.

Second trade opportunity - Taken



Quoting 
~4790
  • LF Long
  • You are looking for strong signs of reversal
  • You want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy
  • You need to feel confident that the force coming in is quite strong
  • Ideal stop is behind 4784.50
  • Safe target is ~4806, stretch target is 19 pts, if this is hit during the morning and the move up after we hit this is very strong you can consider taking a 3rd stretch target of 4818,but you must secure a 10pt profit
  • You must watch the 4800 area closely to ensure you didn't get into a pullback - be prepared to exit at anytime

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Trade grade - Good
  • It was in the plan
  • Observed signs of entry
  • Good target and stop
  • End of day screenshot


Third trade opportunity - Taken

This is one time where I feel my plan was working against me. Since the open I felt pretty bearish and wanted to get into a short trade and I waited to do it until price got to an area I was allowed to trade in lol.


Quoting 
~4780
  • LF Long
  • You are looking for strong signs of reversal
  • You want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy
  • You need to feel confident that the force coming in is quite strong
  • Ideal stop is behind 4775
  • Safe target is ~4794, stretch target is 19 pts, if this is hit during the morning and the move up after we hit this is very strong you can consider taking a 3rd stretch target of 4814 ,but you must secure a 10pt profit
  • Be careful if we shattered 4800 and didn't struggle much or see higher time frame activity at 4790

~4780
  • LF Short
  • You are looking for a breakdown trade here
  • The 4800, ON Low, and 4790 area should've been shattered with very little time support
  • Stop behind 4780 is a must
  • Safe target is ~13 pts, stretch target is ~4761
  • You must watch the 4775-4770 area closely if you entered before it
  • You must feel that we are having a trend bear day in order to take this

I didn't see reversal signs at all. At the beg of the session I felt the profile looked similar to a trend day profile but there was no volume to back it up so I didn't think much of it. However, by this point the volume was starting to pick up and I thought we could have a trend bear day, at least to the 4760-4750 area.

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I followed my plan on this but I feel my plan assumed a low range day today.

Trade grade - Good
  • It was in the plan
  • Observed signs of entry
  • Good target and stop
  • End of day screenshot

ENd of day screenshot

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Some key lessons today
  1. Don't take pre b-down trades if the market is slowing down at all, those pullbacks always get you.
  2. If the opening 15 minutes are very low volume, wait to see when the volume really picks up as it could be a good indicator of where price really wants to go
  3. We've been in a pretty strongly bearish market last week and a half, if things look quite bearish on the daily candles you should consider preparing for more setups. You didn't have any bear setups planned from open ~4805 to ~4780.


Psychology goals today
  • Do not look at P&L- Passed
  • 0 FOMO trades- Passed
  • 0 Emotional trades- Passed
  • Engage deliberate thinking in all trades- Passed
  • 2 trades max today - unless you won at least 1/2 trades and youy have a very good setup - then 3 trades max- Passed
  • Abide by your new trade management standard- Passed
  • Do not get greedy with any of your trades - see below for more detail- Passed
  • Additional based on weekly psychology goals - If there are strong enough signs that you can take a stretch or a stretch+ target, you need to secure 8-10 pts of profit through your stop (8 for stretch, 10 for stretch+). However, don't do this blindly. If it doesn't look like you will be placing your stop in a good area that isn't likely to be hit, then don't take the stretch targets and stay conservative- Passed

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity

Last edited by SoftSoap; November 1st, 2016 at 08:43 PM.
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