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SoftSoap's NQ Journey - from SoftSoap to SoftGold
Started:August 28th, 2016 (01:13 PM) by SoftSoap Views / Replies:11,295 / 253
Last Reply:November 30th, 2016 (09:21 PM) Attachments:403

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SoftSoap's NQ Journey - from SoftSoap to SoftGold

Old October 14th, 2016, 11:09 AM   #141 (permalink)
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Trade update

I started to feel a bit nervous when the market started pulling back and left some very strong bear wicks on the 5 minute
We touched the ~4830 area and then moved back down so I would be lying if I told you I was as comfortable as I felt 2 minutes before I took this picture

However, I took a look at things again and realized I had a good entry and a good stop. I set some alarms at the ~4830 area and the ~4820 area so that I could stop staring at it for now before I convinced myself to exit

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Thankfully the market turned around and shattered through the 30 area this time around. I decided it was time to move my stop to guarantee a profit and potentially move my target to a better area, that was not too greedy.

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Target was filled at ~4839.50. Of course there was a part of me who wanted to hold the trade for longer, but I would've been greedy.

I didn't touch it and the target was filled.

Trade grade - Excellent
  • It was in the plan
  • Observed signs of entry
  • Good target and stop
  • What makes it excellent is that I moved my target slightly to take on 3 additional points. It wasn't greedy, and it was right before an expected area of reversal / pullback.

PS- Currently it came down 10 points from my target so I am so glad I didn't get greedy on this trade

PPS
  • Business inventories came in as expected
  • Consumer sentiment came in as a lot lower than expected

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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Old October 15th, 2016, 03:44 PM   #142 (permalink)
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2016-10-14 Summary

Exciting morning, and then not so exciting rest of the day.

I only took the one trade above, although I passed up on a couple of setups. In retrospect the exit on my one trade was just a couple of ticks above the day high so if I got greedy with my target on that trade I would've ended up losing the trade.

I'm not sure why I didn't take the short setup around the 4840 area, it was in my plan and the signs were there, but honestly for some reason my mind was focusing on bull setups and totally ignored it until it was too late. A bit of a brain fart there.

Price came down to the 4800 area a couple of times but every time we came to it I wanted to see signs of aggressive buying, and nothing.

Price came very close to it 3 times today but the signs weren't strong enough for me to take. Only one of those ran enough for me to say I could've gotten a good profit out of it.

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The volume after we had the big bear move was so low, I wasn't confident in a reversal vs a creeping bear market.



One thing I'm noticing is that my plan only takes into account what to do on first contact. So if price breaks through that area and comes back, I'm not looking for any setups that could be good. Kind of a shame as I'm passing up on a bunch of opportunities simply by not having them in my plan

Psychology goals for the day
  1. 0 FOMO trades - Passed
  2. 0 Emotional trades - Passed
  3. Do not get greedy pls - Passed
  4. Do not micromanage trades, stick to your plan on how to manage your trades - Passed
  5. 2 trades maximum today - so pick your best setups - Passed
  6. If you find that you are getting restless because you haven't taken a trade yet, just step away and set proper alarms - Wasn't triggered today

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Old October 15th, 2016, 04:27 PM   #143 (permalink)
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End of Week Summary - Week 41


4 day trading week, I didn't catch any of the huge moves or had big blunders so I ended ~ neutral this week.
I still made some mistakes on Wednesday & Thursday, dumb psychological mistakes. But keeping things to a 2 trade limit makes sure I can learn from those mistakes without losing too much % and $ wise

Goals for the week
  • Do not look at P&L - Failed
  • 0 FOMO trades - One day I wasn't sure if a trade I took was FOMO or not, let's not say pass or fail
  • 0 Emotional trades - Fail
  • Engage deliberate thinking in all trades - Fail, wow!
  • Journal daily - Passed
  • Make progress on book - don't be lazy on this - ... Failed
  • Aim for 2 trades on most days, Friday can be an exception with major news - Within my daily specifications
  • Think of a good trade management rule that should give you flexibility should the market be very directional, but protect you from yourself most of the time - I'll be writing about this later
  • Abide by whatever micromanagement rule you create - Haven't finished my micromanagement rule yet
  • Do not get greedy with your trades - Fail
  • This week for some reason it feels like a blur lol, I wasn't able to recall some of my trades to be quite honest. Good thing I have a journal to remind me of things lol
  • I don't know why I felt the urge almost every day to look at my P&L, honestly the $ wins or losses don't matter, I'm here to grow as a trader. Doing this only makes me focus on how much money I can win / lose, and then I end up focusing on the wrong things
  • One trade I did not engage deliberate thinking on, and it's crazy that I didn't do it because it's starting to become a habit. This is good though because a month ago I almost always entered a trade through intuitive thinking, and now 1 doing 1 trade that way makes me shake my head and tell myself "wtf are you doing, haha"
  • Reading my book, oh jeez I am such a bad reader. I love to write, I love to watch videos, I love to listen to stuff, but I hate to read. Maybe I won't try to make progress on the book next week so I can focus on a couple of other things, and then the week after come back swinging?
  • I gotta keep working on the greediness, it definitely played an impact on Wednesday and Thursday.

P&L: 1.27%
Trades taken: 9
Rational trades: 2
Emotional trades: 1
Mixed trades: 6

Out of those trades:
Excellent trades: 2
Good trades: 0
Ok trades: 4
Bad trades: 1
Really bad trades: 2

More mixed trades than I would like, I'm moving away from being more mechanical so I have to come back to that.
2 really bad trades this week though? that's not good lol.

Win%: 33
Weekly Expectancy: 27.78
This is because my payoff ratio was 2.86

Overall a slightly positive week $-wise, with a reasonable amount of trades. This is thanks to my wins being almost 3 times as big as my losses, but I do also want to be able to rely on my win% to keep up a positive expectancy.
My mind felt like it wasn't in the game this week and it showed when 3/9 trades were either bad or really bad. It's a bit weird because I felt very tired but this week I got an average of 7.1 hrs of sleep and I usually get ~5.8 hrs of sleep on average. Seems strange, so hmm...

Either way, survived another week, and slowly improving as a trader.

On to next week!

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity

Last edited by SoftSoap; October 15th, 2016 at 05:09 PM. Reason: changed - for :
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Old October 17th, 2016, 12:21 AM   #144 (permalink)
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Week 42 Prep

  • LT wise chart looks as if a bull move was exhausted
  • Quite a bit of volume last week, specially considering that Monday was a bank holiday
  • Market still showing hesitancy above ~4880 area
  • Hit lowest point in 5 weeks last week
  • After a steady 3 weeks of range decline, last week we passed ATR (147 range vs 113 ATR)
  • Decent amount of news this week, but nothing that is huge RTH-wise, lots of noteworthy numbers though
  • Presidential debate on Wednesday
  • Big China numbers Tuesday night, definitely worth watching to see if there's another surprise on the numbers

Goals for this week
  • Do not look at P&L until Friday
  • 0 FOMO trades
  • 0 Emotional trades
  • Engage deliberate thinking in all trades
  • Journal daily
  • Aim for 2 trades on most days, and 3 if the market is volatile and you won at least 1 of previous trades (ON trades don't get counted on this, but max 1 ON trade her night)
  • Make sure you watch FT71 webinar live, the topic is very relevant this week
  • Abide by your new trade management standard
  • Do not get greedy with any of your trades
  • Make formal changes to your rules
  • Update your personal tracking spreadsheet to refer modifications to your rules
  • Ensure you are at your desk 75 minutes before market open every day - don't sleep in

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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Old October 17th, 2016, 10:28 AM   #145 (permalink)
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2016-10-17 Prep

Futures Edge on FIO
  • ON activity mostly balanced between ~4800 and ~4780
  • No huge spike in volume apart from an initial strong bear 10 minutes after Sunday open
  • Empire state manufacturing survey came in a lot lower than expected, seems that it didn't have much (if any) impact on the market
  • 16 day VA between ~4886 and ~4816

News
  • Industrial production @ 915 - Came in ~ consensus, shouldn't impact market
  • Fed speak @ Noon
  • Netflix earnings @ 1500

Scenarios
  1. Range between Sunday open (~4806) and ON low - very boring day
  2. Trend bull @ open until you find strong resistance either at ~4820 or ~4830, then range between that an ~4800 or ON low
  3. Trend bear similar to previous Tuesday - Strong volume at open with trend-day-esque profiles
  4. Trend bull - Start this week off with a big bull correction opposite from last week
  5. Range between ~4815 and ~4890, very low range day and potentially 0 trades from me

Setups I'll take today
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  1. ~4840
    • LF Short
    • You want to see strong signs of exhaustion or aggressive selling
    • Stop behind 4840 is a must
    • Target ~14 pts depending on time should be safe, ~4821 stretch
    • If we had a trend bull day getting us here, don't take unless it's near the end of the day
  2. ~4830
    • LF Short
    • You want to see strong signs of exhaustion or aggressive selling
    • Stop behind 4832 is a must
    • Target ~13 pts, stretch target is 4812
    • Watch the ~4820 closely for strong signs of a pullback
    • Watch ~4815 for signs of reversal
    • Be prepared to pass up on this setup - specially if the day so far has been a trend bull day
  3. ~4820
    • LF Short
    • You want to see strong signs of exhaustion or aggressive selling
    • Watch the ES to see if there are any strong areas that we are getting close to
    • Ideal stop is behind 4825.50
    • Safe target ~ 4806, stretch target is ~4798 - must watch ~4801 closely though and be prepared to exit
    • You might be tempted to take a break-out trade here - don't
    • The only exception is if today looks to be a bull trend day and we sliced through the 4810 area
  4. ~4800
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for reversal signs or signs of bear continuation if we open higher than this
    • You want to see signs that high prices aren't being accepted
    • Ideal stop is behind the ON high
    • Safe target ~ 14 pts, stretch target ~ 4776, but you need to watch ON low very closely
    • Watch 4790 area for any signs of a strong reversal, and exit if you see them
    • Don't get too greedy with this. It'll be tempting to hold until 4760, only do it if it looks like we are having a bear day
  5. ~4800
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for a break out trade here
    • You want to see aggressive buying
    • There shouldn't be any exhaustion signs
    • The Sunday high was ~ 4806 so you want to make sure this move is strong enough to destroy that
    • Be prepared to exit this at ~ 4804 if you see strong selling
    • Ideal stop is behind 4795 but might be hard to get, don't take more than 5 points risk in here
    • Target ~4813 is safe, ~4819 stretch
    • You need to watch the ~4805 area strongly, as well as the ~4810 area, if you see strong signs of reversal make sure that you exit
    • Do not get greedy with this trade
    • If this is the 2nd or 3rd time hitting this, you are looking for similar signs although your stop / target areas might change depending on what's happened in the RTH
  6. Open of the day
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for strong bear signs
    • You want to see aggressive buying or orders being absorbed bearishly
    • You will most likely pass up on this setup - so prepare yourself for that
    • If this is ~ the 4800 area, focus on one of those 2 setups instead
  7. ~4780
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for signs of a reversal
    • Exhaustion signs might be good enough to enter
    • Ideally you want to see some aggressive buying
    • Stop behind 4774.50 is ideal
    • Safe target is 4797, stretch target is 4809
    • Be prepared to pass up on this if the bear move down is quite strong
    • Look at volume # and get a good gauge of who is playing in the market today
  8. ~4780
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for a break-down trade here
    • You want to see strong bear force
    • You want to see that 4790 was sliced through easily
    • There should be little to no signs of exhaustion
    • Be careful if you see strong buying at ~ON Low
    • Stop behind 4780 is ideal
    • Target ~14 pts is safe, ~ 4861 stretch
  9. ~4755
    Edit after open
  10. ~4750
    Edit after open

Psychology goals for the day
  • Do not look at P&L
  • 0 FOMO trades
  • 0 Emotional trades
  • Engage deliberate thinking in all trades
  • 2 trades max today - unless trend day and you won at least 1/2 trades - then 3 trades max
  • Abide by your new trade management standard
  • Do not get greedy with any of your trades

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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Old October 17th, 2016, 12:55 PM   #146 (permalink)
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2016-10-17 Summary

I won't be updating my plan above as I've already taken my 2 trades for the day

First trade opportunity - Passed

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I looked to see if we could get one of the 2 setups I was mostly looking for ~ 4800, but the first 5 minutes looked quite balance and I didn't see strong signs for either way. A short probably would've win, a long would've been a loss

Second opportunity - Taken

Quite quickly we see things start to turn bearishly and I see enough signs that I enter
The market moved down quite fast so I had to get in with a market order unfortunately, but I was expecting a break-down

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Then we get to a point where I need to make a decision as we are seeing some strong resistance on the volume profile. I modify my stop to ensure I don't take a loss on this trade, and I keep my target, decision made and now I sit and wait. Honestly the 15 minute wicks are showing a very strong bear move so you would need a very strong bull move to stop this and completely turn it around.

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We do end up getting that bull move
At least I modified my stop so I didn't take a loss on this trade.
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In retrospect, if I had a better entry point the trade could've gone differently, but I didn't see strong signs to get in earlier.

Trade grade - Initially Ok --> Upgrade to Good
Okay trade because the entry wasn't very good, but it was part of my plan
However, I upgraded it to good because I managed the trade pretty well and ended up not losing money on it due to that


Third Opportunity - Taken

I honestly didn't really want to take a break-out setup so soon after my first trade but the signs were pretty strong and my job is to read the market and act based on what I see, and not let any preconceived notions force my trades.

Volume looked strong, this move stopped a big bear move, the wicks looked strong on 5 and 15min. I was confident we'd break through the ON high of ~4806 (which we did), but I didn't think this would turn around at ~4810.
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Trade Grade - Good
  • It was in the plan
  • Observed signs of entry
  • Good target and stop



Looking at things right now, it seems like scenario 1 is the most likely, so then the ~4800 area ends up being a low volume area where price just slices through up and down and not a great indicator for where the trend will go.

It's so early and it's a Monday but I took 1 point on first trade and lost on 2nd trade, I don't meet the requirements to take a 3rd trade.

There's a fed speech soon so that could be why the market isn't moving too much but there'll be more opportunities that I can take during the week.

Psychology goals for today
  • Do not look at P&L - Passed
  • 0 FOMO trades - Passed
  • 0 Emotional trades - Passed
  • Engage deliberate thinking in all trades - Passed
  • 2 trades max today - unless trend day and you won at least 1/2 trades - then 3 trades max - Passed. Technically I 'won' one trade, but when I write this I'm assuming a 12+ pt win, not a 1 pt win
  • Abide by your new trade management standard - Passed, it actually saved me 6 pts today, so that's good
  • Do not get greedy with any of your trades - Passed

Good day psychology wise I guess, it's just weird to step away from my trading desk so soon. I've done this before so it's not the first time, but it's usually because I've taken so many losses and I am trading emotionally, and not like ~4pts down and trading well.

Rules are rules though.

See you tomorrow!

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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Old October 18th, 2016, 10:24 AM   #147 (permalink)
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2016-10-18 Prep

  • Very bullish ON activity - almost 50 points up wow
  • Relatively high volume ON
  • Everything on my watch list is strongly green, with nflx being up 18% pre market
  • 14 day VA between 4810 and 4887
  • Should be close to 50K contracts before open, so quite high
  • Goldman sachs profit up 47%, that seems like it's a lot but stock is up only up ~1.5%?? what? lol

News
  • GDP came in ~ expectations
  • Housing market index @ 10
  • UK data ON came in ~ expectations
  • China information tonight
  • Intel reports @ 17
  • Yahoo reports today, but when?
  • Obama and Italian PM talking today, will that move markets? I don't know to be honest , never seen this before so I'll keep close watch

Scenarios
  • Trend bull day - Continue the big bull move until ~ 4880 or even until ~ All time highs of ~4900
  • RTH scraps from ON move - RTH finds a resistance area and then balances between that area and 25-30 points below it, boring day
  • Trend bear day - We see a huge correction from the ON activity and we strongly reject the ~50 area and trend bear until ~ 4800 or the end of the day
  • We trend bear off the open until we find strong support, then we trend bull for the rest of the day
  • We trend bear off the open until we find strong support, we then find a strong resistance area and range between those 2 areas


Setups I'll take today

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  1. ~4880
    • LF Short
    • You want to see strong signs of exhaustion or aggressive selling
    • Stop behind 4880 is a must
    • Target ~14 pts depending on time should be safe, ~4861 stretch
    • If we had a trend bull day getting us here, don't take unless it's near the end of the day
    • If you haven't taken many setups yet, you might be tempted to take a break-out trade if we pass this - do not do this as 4890 and 4900 are very strong areas - you can take those setups instead
  2. ~4855
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for strong signs of aggressive selling
    • Exhaustion is not good enough to take this setup
    • Ideally look for signs that higher time frame players are stepping in
    • Ideal stop is behind 4863
    • Target ~ 4843, but watch the ~50 area for signs that you just took a pullback
    • Ask yourself - are you confident that the current trend is now bear?
    • Look to see where ES is at, and if they are near a strong resistance area
  3. ~4860
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for a break-out trade here
    • The 50 zone should've been shattered
    • There's little sign of slowing at ~4855, and 4860 is offering little resistance
    • Stop behind 4855 is ideal
    • Target ~4874 safe, ~4878 stretch
    • Entry on this will be very important
    • Be prepared to pass up on this setup
  4. ~4840
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for a break down trade
    • Signs need to be very strong that we aren't going to continue with this bull move
    • Be careful of a short squeeze at ~ the open, signs could be similar
    • There should be aggressive selling getting us to this point, you want to see more of it
    • Stop behind 4845 is ideal
    • Target ~ 4831 is safe, 4826 is stretch
    • Be prepared to pass up on this trade
  5. ~Open
    • You are looking for some very strong signs of either trend reversal or very strong trend continuation
    • You want to see high volume
    • You want to see very bear or bullish profiles
    • You want to feel very confident that the trend is going one way, somewhat confident is not enough
    • You shouldn't feel nervous taking this setup, so if you do then analyze things quickly
    • Don't look to get into this setup, only take it if the signs present themselves bluntly to you
  6. ~4830
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for signs of reversal
    • You want to see strong volume
    • You want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy
    • This area is very close to the 4820 area, so be very careful
    • Safe target is ~4834
    • Stretch target is ~4839
    • Be prepared to pass up on this
  7. ~4820
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for a continuation of a strong bear trend trade
    • You don't want to see anything slowing
    • 40 and 30 zone got shattered pretty much, not much resistance is shown
    • Stop behind 4825 is ideal
    • Target ~4811 is safe - keep in mind when looking for an entry point
    • ~4804 is stretch
  8. ~4820
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for signs of a reversal
    • Exhaustion signs might be good enough to enter
    • Ideally you want to see some aggressive buying
    • Stop behind 4820 is a must
    • Safe target is 4834, stretch target is ~4842
    • Be prepared to pass up on this if the bear move down is quite strong
    • Look at volume # and get a good gauge of who is playing in the market today
  9. ~4800
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for signs of a reversal
    • Exhaustion signs might be good enough to enter
    • Ideally you want to see some aggressive buying
    • The later in the day the better this setup is
  10. ~4800
    • LF Short
    • There should be some very negative news
    • Do not take this if later in the day
    • Hold until at least 330 Ramp up or strong signs of reversal
    • Be prepared to pass up on this
  11. ~4780
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for signs of a reversal
    • Exhaustion signs might be good enough to enter
    • Ideally you want to see some aggressive buying
    • The later in the day the better this setup is


Things to watch @ open
  • Total volume - are we seeing any higher time frame players stepping in to take advantage of the open liquidity?
  • Volume profiles - how will they look off the open? will we see any signs that point towards a trend day?
  • Potential of short squeeze- will it happen? be careful not to get caught in the trap both ways
  • Range - how volatile will the open be?

Psychology goals today
  • Do not look at P&L
  • 0 FOMO trades
  • 0 Emotional trades
  • Engage deliberate thinking in all trades
  • 2 trades max today - unless trend day and you won at least 1/2 trades - then 3 trades max
  • Abide by your new trade management standard
  • Do not get greedy with any of your trades

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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Old October 18th, 2016, 11:11 AM   #148 (permalink)
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First trade opportunity - Passed
  • As I was doing my market prep, I wanted to take a short at ~4840 before the market opened as I had marked it as a resistance area
  • However, I did not see strong enough signs of a reversal, after a 40 point move with very little resistance
  • Would've been a loss

Second trade opportunity - Passed
  • Passed short pre open at ~ 4843 area
  • Things were moving down and the volume had accumulated above quite a bit, and things looked bearish
  • I just didn't like the entry point, it was too low to be able to place a stop behind the 4850 area which I would've wanted - if I only knew what would happen next
  • Would've been a loss

Third trade opportunity - Taken


Quoting 
~Open
  • You are looking for some very strong signs of either trend reversal or very strong trend continuation
  • You want to see high volume
  • You want to see very bear or bullish profiles
  • You want to feel very confident that the trend is going one way, somewhat confident is not enough
  • You shouldn't feel nervous taking this setup, so if you do then analyze things quickly
  • Don't look to get into this setup, only take it if the signs present themselves bluntly to you

  • Things started to look bearish and so I took a trade off the open
  • The price was at ~ 4848 when I clicked the sell market button and the price I got filled at was 4843.50, wow
  • I was expecting a ~4848 or ~4847 fill, at worst a 4846.50 fill but all would allow my stop to be behind the 50 area
  • I don't think that I would've taken this trade if I knew my fill was going to be this bad
  • This is almost a 5 point difference in a matter of seconds, that is huge lol
  • I'd love for my stop to be behind the 4850 area but I don't know that I want to take such a high stop on such a bad entry specially if it does end up just being an inventory squeeze
  • I think I might need to consider not using market orders to enter, unless it's a break-out or break-down trade

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I was a bit shocked when I looked at this to be honest, this bad fill was the first time I either experienced this, or noticed it

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But things started to look good right away, so I decided to hold it and not focus on my bad entry but be positive about the potential upside

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Looking at this it is very hard to justify staying in this trade without increasing my risk. I would've had to increase my risk at least 3 points so it'd be a 7.5 risk vs 13.75 gain, which isn't even 2:1
Also, around this time my mind started to see us balancing between 4840 and 4846, which could get me very close to my stop with just 1 move. The risk is no longer in my favor, and although I still feel confident about the market moving down, my entry point is bad enough that I feel I need to exit the trade.

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Ended up taking 1.75pt loss, which isn't fun for my first trade but it's better than staying in a bad trade.

We'll see whether or not that was the right decision

Edit: The market went up and got 1 tick below what would've been my stop before moving bear. It then came 5 ticks before what would've been my target. After that, it moved up and would've taken out my original stop of 4848, and the stop I thought of maybe taking of 4851.
Hard to say whether or not this was the right decision $-wise, but I do feel that this was the right decision discipline wise.

In summary, if I let the trade ride without changing anything I would've lost more than I lost. The only way I would've won is if I exited the trade earlier while it was moving down.

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity

Last edited by SoftSoap; October 18th, 2016 at 07:15 PM.
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Old October 18th, 2016, 05:16 PM   #149 (permalink)
Elite Member
Canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
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Posts: 441 since Aug 2015
Thanks: 266 given, 796 received

2016-10-18 Summary

Another slow day RTH wise

2 trades taken today, 1 loss and 1 win

I've summarized the loss above, here is the win play-by-play

This market was showing strong signs of cooling off, and I wanted to capitalize on that.

Quoting 
~4855
  • LF Short
  • You are looking for strong signs of aggressive selling
  • Exhaustion is not good enough to take this setup
  • Ideally look for signs that higher time frame players are stepping in
  • Ideal stop is behind 4863
  • Target ~ 4843, but watch the ~50 area for signs that you just took a pullback
  • Ask yourself - are you confident that the current trend is now bear?
  • Look to see where ES is at, and if they are near a strong resistance area

  • Volume was being absorbed and it looked very likely that we were about to have a reversal. It looked as if we had some high volume limit orders being filled slowly
  • I was expecting an aggressive reversal after a creeping 50 pt bull move, but that didn't happen
  • My entry wasn't ideal so I had to target lower than the 4843. I aimed for ~ the bottom of the RTH VA for my target

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  • There were so many times when I just wanted to get out of this trade. The strong reversal signs that got me into the trade were no longer there, but there were now strong signs of exhaustion in the market. I like seeing things moving my way and THEN slowing down, not slowing down just around where I entered . I decided that I had a good entry and exit point and to walk away and set an alarm a couple of pts above my target in case I decided to move my target.
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  • 3 hours later
  • My alarm is hit and things are looking good.
  • I took a quick look to see if I should raise my target for bigger profits, but honestly I would be hoping that we'd see a strong 330 bear ramp up, and 'hoping' that something will happen when you don't see any signs of it, is not reason enough to stay. So I kept my target and it was filled

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Funny enough, 25 minutes later we got a big bear move that brought the market 15 points lower :Sarcastic:

Trade grade - Good
  • It was in the plan
  • Observed signs of entry
  • Good target and stop

Psychology goals today
  • Do not look at P&L - Passed
  • 0 FOMO trades - Passed
  • 0 Emotional trades - Passed
  • Engage deliberate thinking in all trades - Passed
  • 2 trades max today - unless trend day and you won at least 1/2 trades - then 3 trades max - Passed
  • Abide by your new trade management standard - unsure about pass/fail on this one. I don't have anything in there about the scenario I faced today, so I'll leave it empty
  • Do not get greedy with any of your trades - Passed

Overall a decent day $-wise today. Great day psychology wise.

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Old October 19th, 2016, 09:36 AM   #150 (permalink)
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Thanks: 266 given, 796 received

2016-10-19 Prep


  • China data came in ~ expected
  • Japan industry index ~ consensus
  • Bullish until ~4833 then trended bear down to ~4810
  • Stayed in that range all night
  • Housing starts lower than expected (-130K), but housing permits up - will this have an impact on the NQ today though?
  • 14 day VA between ~4814 and ~4886
  • 14 day VPOC ~4853

News
  • EIA Petroleum Report @ 1030
  • Fed speaker @ 1330
  • Last debate is tonight
  • Beige book @ 1400
  • Bank of Canada announcement @ 1000
  • Morgan Stanley corporate earnings
  • Ebay corporate earnings near close

Scenarios
  1. Low range with little strength - balance between ON low and ON high or ~4840, bounce back and forth like ping pong
  2. Trend bear off the open until ON low, then trend bull until either ~4840 or ~4860, end around midway
  3. Trend bull until ON high, then trend bear down to ON low, then move to ~4800 and range between ~4800 and ~4840 for the remaining of the day
  4. Bear trend day after hitting ON high or ~4840
  5. Strong bear move until ~ 4780 or even ~4760. Zones would be shattered quite easily and we'd have a high range at the open
  6. Trend bull strongly from the open, and trend bull until ~ 4880 or the end of the day

Setups I'll take today


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  1. ~4880
    • LF Short
    • You want to see strong signs of exhaustion or aggressive selling
    • Stop behind 4880 is a must
    • Target ~14 pts depending on time should be safe, ~4861 stretch
    • If we had a trend bull day getting us here, don't take unless it's near the end of the day, unless signs are very very strong
    • If you haven't taken many setups yet, you might be tempted to take a break-out trade if we pass this - do not do this as 4890 and 4900 are very strong areas - you can take those setups instead
  2. ~4860
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for a break-out trade here
    • The 50 zone should've been shattered
    • There's little sign of slowing at ~4855, and 4860 is offering little resistance
    • Stop behind 4855 is ideal
    • Target ~4874 safe, ~4878 stretch
    • Entry on this will be very important as the zone is quite large - don't be too eager if the market isn't very strongly moving up
    • Be prepared to pass up on this setup
  3. ~4860
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for strong signs of aggressive selling
    • Strong exhaustion signs could be good enough to enter this trade
    • Ideally look for signs that higher time frame players are stepping in
    • Ideal stop is behind 4865, but could be very hard to get
    • Target ~ 4843, but watch the ~50 area for signs that you just took a pullback
    • Ask yourself - are you confident that the current trend is now bear?
  4. ~4840
    • LF Short
    • This could be the first setup hit at the RTH
    • You are looking for strong signs of a reversal
    • Exhaustion is not good enough to enter this trade, as the market could be taking a breather before breaking-out
    • You want to see higher volume
    • Ideal stop is behind the 4845 area, but could be tough to get
    • Safe target is ~4826 and stretch target is ~4817
    • You must watch the 4830 and 4825 area very closely for any signs of strong buying
    • Be prepared to pass up on this setup
  5. ~4840
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for very little resistance from sellers
    • You want to see some strong profiles that resemble a bull trend day
    • You want to see high volume and sell orders being filled without any issues
    • Stop behind 4838 is ideal
    • Safe target is ~4853, stretch target is 4858
    • You must watch the 50 area closely for any signs of reversal - be prepared to exit if signs of reversal are strong
  6. ~4833 (ON High)
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for some very strong signs
    • You want to see very bearish profiles
    • You want to see high volume
    • You want to see the ES hitting some resistance as well
    • Be prepared to pass up on this
    • Ideal stop behind 4836 area
    • Safe target is ~4821, stretch target is ~4816
    • You must watch the 4825 very closely
    • Do not get greedy on this
  7. ~Open
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for strong signs of a bear move
    • Profiles must be quite bearish
    • You must see signs of aggressive selling in the market
    • You want to see high volume, and some pockets in the profiles
    • You want to feel very confident that the trend is going one way, somewhat confident is not enough
    • You shouldn't feel nervous taking this setup, so if you do then analyze things quickly
    • Don't look to get into this setup, only take it if the signs present themselves bluntly to you
  8. ~4810 (ON Low)
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for signs of reversal
    • You want to see strong volume
    • Ideally, you'd want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy - but don't expect it if volume / range for the day are low
    • Exhaustion isn't good enough to enter this
    • Stop behind 4809.50 is a must
    • Safe target is ~4824, stretch target is ~4831
    • Do not get greedy on this
    • Be prepared to pass up this setup as ~4800 should be stronger
  9. ~4800
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for a continuation of a strong bear trend
    • You don't want to see anything slowing things down
    • ~4810 zone should've been shattered
    • You might see a bit of resistance so be careful as to when you enter
    • You need to see higher time frame players stepping in to drive the market down
    • If volume is low, then be extra careful
    • Be prepared to pass up on this
  10. ~4800
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for signs of reversal
    • You want to see strong volume
    • You want to see higher time frame players stepping in to buy
    • Exhaustion isn't good enough to enter this
    • Stop behind 4796 is ideal
    • Safe target is ~4814, stretch target is ~4824
    • Don't get too greedy with this
  11. ~4780
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for a continuation of a strong bear trend
    • You don't want to see anything slowing things down
    • ~4810 zone should've been shattered, ~4800 shouldn't have held up too strongly either
    • You should see a bit of resistance so be careful as to when / if you enter
    • You need to see higher time frame players stepping in to drive the market down
    • If volume is low, then be extra careful
  12. ~4780
    • LF Long
    • You want to see some strong buying here
    • Exhaustion might be good enough to enter
    • The later in the day, the better this setup becomes
    • Safe target is ~4796, stretch target is ~4809
  13. ~4760
    • LF Long
    • You want to see some strong buying here
    • Exhaustion might be good enough to enter
    • The later in the day, the better this setup becomes
    • Safe target is ~4789, stretch target is ~4797

Things to watch today
  • Total volume @ open
  • Volume profiles @ open - will they signal a low range / low volume day?
  • 330 ramp up - will we see some flattening of positions ahead of the debate tonight?

Psychology goals for the day
  • Do not look at P&L
  • 0 FOMO trades
  • 0 Emotional trades
  • Engage deliberate thinking in all trades
  • 2 trades max today - unless trend day and you won at least 1/2 trades - then 3 trades max
  • Abide by your new trade management standard
  • Do not get greedy with any of your trades

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity

Last edited by SoftSoap; October 19th, 2016 at 10:19 AM. Reason: Accidentally posted when it wasn't complete
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