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SoftSoap's NQ Journey - from SoftSoap to SoftGold
Started:August 28th, 2016 (01:13 PM) by SoftSoap Views / Replies:11,297 / 253
Last Reply:November 30th, 2016 (09:21 PM) Attachments:403

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SoftSoap's NQ Journey - from SoftSoap to SoftGold

Old October 11th, 2016, 05:23 PM   #131 (permalink)
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2016-10-11 Prep

It was very hard to wake up this morning . Unfortunately I did not complete my prep before the market opened (first time in a while on days I intended to trade). I posted this late cause I was focused on trading and after I took my 2 trades I was so tired I went to go nap "sarcastic:
  • Very low range ON, between ~4900 and ~4880
  • No big news today

Scenarios
  • Open up to ~4900 area, then balance between ~4900 and ~4880
  • Open up bear and trend until about 4860 area, go bull from there
  • Open up to ~4890 area, balance for a long time and then break down to about 4860 area
  • Trend bull day
  • Trend bear day

Setups I'll take today. A bit light on the details as I was already done trading before I finished typing up things.
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  1. ~4910
    • Untested
    • LF Long
    • Watch volume carefully
    • You want to see signs of exhaustion or aggressive selling
  2. ~4900
    • New AT highs as of yesterday
    • LF Short
    • Stop must be behind 4902, but preferably behind 4905
    • Weak signs of exhaustion aren't good enough to enter, either strong signs or aggressive selling
    • Target ~4815 is safe, 4880 should be doable
  3. ~4880
    • LF long reversal trade
  4. ~4880
    • LF short break-down trade
  5. ~4855
    • LF Long
  6. ~4845
    • LF Long

Psychology goals today
  • 0 FOMO trades
  • 0 Emotional trades
  • Do not look at P&L
  • Do not micromanage trades
  • Do not get greedy

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Old October 11th, 2016, 06:29 PM   #132 (permalink)
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2016-10-11 Summary

Well today was a crazy bear day. No news and I wasn't expecting it to be honest. Thankfully I ended positive, and it was a big psychology win day for me.

I guess we are seeing a lot of people getting rid of their positions pre FOMC minutes? Are they really going to be that damning? What do I know lol

Today was a very busy morning, it didn't feel too good to be very busy watching the market without having a completed plan, and I paid for it on my first trade.

1st trade opportunity - Passed
  • Open long at 4886. I saw the market moving up pretty fast and my brain just saw dollar bills and wanted to enter me into a trade. This was an easy one to pass up as it would've been a FOMO and an emotional trade
  • Would've been a loss

2nd trade opportunity - Passed
  • Long at 4880. It was in my trading plan but I didn't see signs of a reversal, if anything I observed signs of a break-down which was my other setup so I took that one instead
  • Would've been a loss

3rd trade opportunity - Taken
  • Shorted based on break-down signs
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  • My plan wasn't fully developed yet so I wasn't too sure as to where to modify the stop / target area.
  • The stop was easy so I put it behind the 4880 area, my entry was really good so it was only ~2pts worth of risk
  • The target I wasn't sop sure, so I set it initially at the 67 area in case we saw some resistance at the 65 mark.
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  • I then went to help my wife with something while I was still thinking and said, I should lower my target from from 67 to 61 as I didn't remember observing much resistance there in the past. By the time I came back to my desk though my target had been filled and I was too late.

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A win is still a win, but if I had my plan completed in time I might've been able to capitalize on this more.

Trade grade - Ok
  • It was part of the plan
  • Some signs were there
  • Decent (but not good) target

4th trade opportunity - Passed
  • Long at 4860. Signs looked very good and I wanted to take it, but it wasn't part of my plan so I had to pass up on it. I was sure that this would be a win but I needed to be disciplined
  • It would've been a loss so that was good

5th trade opportunity - Passed
  • 4855, signs did not look good for a reversal, even though it was in my plan so I passed up and was watching the 50 area closely instead
  • Would've been a loss

6th trade opportunity - Passed
  • Signs looked good, volume was very strong
  • However, I only had 1 trade left to take today, and I wasn't sure that we had hit bottom yet, we could just see a pullback
  • Would've been a loss

7th trade opportunity - Passed
  • Long at 4855
  • Thinking that it wasn't just a pullback (from above) and I actually did miss the falling knife, I wanted to get into a trade
  • Would've been a FOMO trade though
  • Would've been a loss as well

8th trade opportunity - Passed
  • Long at 4845
  • Signs were not strong enough that we had hit bottom yet
  • Would've been a loss

9th trade opportunity - Taken
  • Long at ~4835
  • I was looking to enter between 4840 and 4835 and initially it looked like I was going to pass up on the trade
  • That was until I saw what I interpreted as some aggressive buying
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  • Shortly after that the 4834 area became VPOC so I was very confident that the market was going to reverse, but boy was I wrong.
  • Stopped filled.
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Trade grade - Excellent
  • It was in the plan
  • Observed signs of entry
  • Good target and stop
  • What makes it excellent is that I adapted to the market by letting it drop a couple more points before

You might look at this and ask "how can you grade a trade excellent when you money lost on it" and that's a fair observation. My trade grade system isn't meant to take into account P&L at all, it's all based on my execution and the trade above met my criteria of an excellent trade, it just didn't work out $-wise.

Things I did well today
  1. I passed up on 7 setups today, all 7 would've been losses too
  2. Stuck to my max trade limit today of 2 trades
  3. Did not get affected emotionally by the big bear trend day

Things I need to improve on from today's performance
  1. You gotta have your plan ready to go at least 10 minutes before the open, make sure that today was an exception
  2. Find a way to capitalize on big trend days. Your methodology relies on reversals too much. I guess this is something for the future

Psychology goals today
  • 0 FOMO trades - Passed
  • 0 Emotional trades - Passed
  • Do not look at P&L - Passed, although I was very tempted
  • Do not micromanage trades - Passed
  • Do not get greedy - Passed
  • I forgot to include this in my morning prep, but 2 trade maximum for today which I passed

Highlighting the improvements in my psychology
  • One last thing I want to highlight is how much I've improved in regards to my psychology in trading. Days like today were the days that destroyed me the most in the past. Days where I kept looking for a trend reversal that never ended up happening, but still took the same bad setup.
  • If you look at a similar day in the past, I traded it completely different (https://futures.io/trading-journals/40312-softsoap-s-nq-nasdaq-100-futures-contr...ftgold-6.html#post596025). It also caused great grief and internal battles as I got angry at myself for trading so bad.
  • While I didn't get to capitalize on a nearly 100 range trend day, I still ended positive today. I went from days like today absolutely killing me $-wise and psychology-wise, to passing up on 7 trades and ending slightly positive today. While also stepping out after my 2 trade limit
  • I feel like I had a big psychology win today, so I'm happy. This is a good sign if your goal is long-term growth


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Old October 11th, 2016, 11:45 PM   #133 (permalink)
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Great job, @SoftSoap!


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Old October 12th, 2016, 12:18 PM   #134 (permalink)
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Bearish ON session from ~4840

News
  • JOLTS @ 10 - unlikely to have impact
  • Some fed speakers this morning - will we even see coverage on them? who knows
  • FOMC Minutes @ 2 - shouldn't surprise anyone, but it will so be ready

Scenarios
  • Trend bear until ~4800, then balance and trend bull, who knows what happens after FOMC
  • Open up strongly bull and trend to ~4835-4845 and strong bear trend until then, who knows what happens after FOMC
  • Another trend bear day, start with lots of volume and shatter the 4800 zone, then trend until FOMC and possibly even further
  • Huge correction in the market today, we trend bear until FOMC and possibly even further
  • Find a point of resistance and trend between that and 4800 until FOMC, then who knows

Setups I'll take today
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  1. ~4900
    • LF Short
    • Unless something crazy happens like FOMC minutes guaranteeing we won't see a rate hike this year, you can enter preemptively
    • Just need to see a few signs of exhaustion
    • Be prepared to take this trade fast
    • If for some miracle we get to this in the morning session, then you are going to want to see strong signs of selling
  2. ~4880
    • LF Short
    • At minimum, you will want to see signs of exhaustion
    • Don't take too close to FOMC
    • Near the end of the day this becomes a good setup, if you are willing to hold ON
    • 14 pts is safe target, 4860 is stretch
  3. ~4840
    • LF Short
    • Hopefully this is the first setup that get hits today
    • You want to see force of players stepping in to sell
    • You want to see aggressive selling
    • Be prepared to take this setup fast, we might not stay here for a while
    • ~15 pts would be safe target
    • 4811 would be stretch target, but do-able under the right circumstances
    • Stop behind 4845 is ideal, but might not be possible
    • If you sense a strong correction happening in the market, don't take this trade
  4. ~4810 (ON Low)
    • LF long
    • You want to see signs of aggressive buying
    • Exhaustion is not enough to enter this trade
    • Target of 4824 is safe, 4834 would be stretch target
    • If this is the first area hit and from a strong bear move down, be extra careful
    • Be prepared to pass up on this setup
  5. ~4800 (PDL)
    • LF Long
    • You want to see signs of strong buying
    • Be extra careful if profile looks quite bearish
    • Entry will be key as you might be balancing around this area for a while
    • Enter as close to the 4798 area as possible
    • Target behind 4795 is a must
    • 4814 is safe target
    • 4824 is stretch target
    • If we move fast close to this a bear trade might be tempting, but just don't take it - unless it's past the FOMC minutes and fundamentals align with a prolongued bear move
    • Be prepared to pass up on this setup
  6. ~4785
    • LF Long
    • You need to be prepared to take this setup as we get close, we might not stay here for a while
    • You want to see signs that the bear move is over
    • Aggressive buying would be an added plus
    • Entry will be difficult as you could enter at 4890 or 4880
    • Entry needs to be determined on what volume is telling you
    • If buying coming in is very aggressive, you might need to get a less than ideal entry to capitalize on this move
    • Be careful around the timing of this - do not enter if close to FOMC minutes
  7. ~4750
    • LF Long only if it's not in the morning session
    • If we get this from a bear trend day and we haven't passed the FOMC minutes, exercise extra caution
    • If it's near the end of the day, look for signs of exhaustion and/or aggressive buying
    • 4869 is safe target, 4877 is stretch target


Be careful with long entries if we have another bear trend day

Close out of your positions 5 minutes before FOMC minutes

Things to watch
  • Total volume - Will we see high volume before the FOMC minutes come out?
  • Volume profiles - Will we see signs of a trend day? will we see aggressive moves or will we see slow creeping profiles?
  • Range - Will things be tight during this open?
  • Oil - Will it drop fast? will it find a balance?

Psychology goals today
  • Do not look at P&L
  • 0 FOMO trades
  • 0 Emotional trades
  • Do not micromanage trades
  • Aim for 2 trades - 3rd trade only allowed if you won at least 1 of the first trades and you have a very good FOMC setup
  • Do not get greedy with trades

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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Old October 12th, 2016, 02:05 PM   #135 (permalink)
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Pre - FOMC trading

Futures Edge on FIO

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So far I've taken 0 trades, but here are some of the trades I debated entering.

Trading opportunity 1 - Passed
  • Short @ 4820 ~open
  • The volume was strong, the profiles were super bearish, and this had all the signs I would be looking for
  • Wouldn't have been a FOMO trade, wouldn't have been emotional, but it wasn't part of my plan
  • Would've been a win if I didn't get greedy

Trading opportunity 2 - Passed
  • Long at ON low ~open
  • Too strong bear and no signs of reversal, easy pass
  • Would've been loss

Trade opportunity 3 - Passed
  • Long at 4810
  • I was mixed on this trade. It looked good, but the position of it was awful
  • By this time the top of the RTH was 4820 and the low was 4800, so taking a trade right in the middle isn't something I wanted to do
  • We also sliced through this area on the open, and we balanced around it for quite a while
  • Would've been a win if I didn't get greedy

Unfortunately the move down to the ~4800 area from the opendidn't get low enough for me to decide getting into a trade, as I was looking for something closer to the PDL of 4798

Let's see what the minutes have to say, 1 hr left to go!

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Old October 12th, 2016, 10:18 PM   #136 (permalink)
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2016-10-12 Summary

Not a great day for me. 2 trades taken, 2 losses today. What bothers me though is that I took a revenge trade on my 2nd trade, not good.

Trade Opportunity 4 - Taken

FOMC minutes come out, and I take my typical news setup. I forgot to include this in my trading plan but news setups are always something I'm looking to take when big news is expected.

The setup is as follows. I wait for market volatility to settle a bit, I choose the way I expect the market to go based on the news, and get in as soon as it looks like the market is going that way.

Today's minutes didn't really do much for the market in comparison to previous big news, so it kinda screwed me up a bit. I was expecting much more volatility and strength and thus I got kind of a crappy entry. Also, my target was too high for how weak the market reacted to this news. Something to keep in mind for the future.

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However I was able to survive the volatility and the market started to go the way I expected. Although I didn't like my entry point that much, my stop came within 3 ticks of being hit, so I was thankful for surviving that.

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However, at around this point I'm thinking that the initial bull move up is over. I felt very strongly that I should get out, or at minimum raise my stop to ensure I don't take a loss on this setup, but I didn't want to micromanage my trade.

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I was a bit mad after that. My news setup isn't meant to hold for more than 30 minutes on the first strong move, so why was I so hesitant to exit after an hr?

Also, the market went up 12 points from my entry point, so it had to go 17 points against me from the high point in order to hit my stop, that's almost as much as my target - is that the right thing to do? I don't know to be honest . These are the questions a rookie trader like me just doesn't have an answer to, yet!

This puts more emphasis on my weekly goal of coming up with a standard on how to manage my trades. There's going to be times when moving my stop / target is what is best, so I have to be able to account for that in my trading. Maybe if the trade goes 10-12 pts in my favor I should move my stop to a BE point or a smaller loss? I don't know. It's something I need to think about this week.

It sucks I lost this trade, but at least the 'learnings' from this trade will be fresh in my mind so I can develop a sound trade management standard. A good trade management standard will be worth more than the $100 I lost today

Trade grade - Ok
  • It was part of the plan
  • Some signs were there
  • Decent (but not good) target

Trade Opportunity 5 - Taken

Then came this trade, I don't even want to talk about it

I was upset about my last trade, and felt that my hypothesis of the market going to the 4840 area was still correct, but that I just got a crappy entry. I then took a revenge trade.

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I knew it was a revenge trade, and I wasn't very happy while I clicked the buy button. However once I stepped into the trade I felt I had hit the 'no return' button.

It was as if a part of me wanted to cross that line so I could justify staying in the trade. Interesting how my mind works but it's clearly wrong.

I decided to walk away because if I did get stopped, I might've not been strong enough to avoid taking another revenge trade. The strong psychological thing to do would've been to exit the trade, whether I was up or down because it was a revenge trade. Instead, I let it ride and hoped for the best

I lost the trade, and in retrospect I'm glad I lost the trade. As dumb as this sounds I hope the market punishes me $-wise every time I take a revenge trade.




One thing to note is that during both of these setups today I felt very nervous. I couldn't stop looking at the screen so I had to step away

Why did I feel nervous? Was it because my unconscious and smarter part of me saw the signs weren't quite there to take the trades? Was it that the conscious part of me wasn't confident in my abilities? Was I just suffering from general anxiety? I don't know to be honest. FT71 says record your emotions on trades where you don't do so well and I definitely felt nervousness for the 90 minutes I was in these 2 trades.

Trade grade - Really Bad
  • Not in plan
  • Knew I shouldn’t have entered
  • Made execution mistakes (not exiting even though I knew it was a revenge trade)

Psychology goals
  • Do not look at P&L - Failed, I took a bigger loss than I usually do on my emotional setup, so I wanted to see how much I lost. Couldn't control myself.
  • 0 FOMO trades - Passed
  • 0 Emotional trades - Failed, revenge trade definitely qualifies as emotional trading
  • Do not micromanage trades - Passed
  • Aim for 2 trades - 3rd trade only allowed if you won at least 1 of the first trades and you have a very good FOMC setup - Passed
  • Do not get greedy with trades - Not sure if I passed this or not. I don't know if my news setup was too greedy, or just failed to adjust to current market conditions and my entry point. I feel it's the latter to be honest

Tomorrow will be another day!

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity

Last edited by SoftSoap; October 12th, 2016 at 10:22 PM. Reason: Forgot trade grades
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Old October 13th, 2016, 10:24 AM   #137 (permalink)
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2016-10-13 Prep

Huge volume last night over China information which came back way below expectations
I had a note about the information tonight from China but not last night, I had placed a trade at ~4800 area which was just destroyed
Lesson learned, always look at the international news if you are thinking about placing an ON trade
  • Everything is in the red today, looks like we bleed when China bleeds
  • DB is down 3% from hiring freeze
  • Wells Fargo is up as CEO retires
  • Jobless claims came out really well
  • Higher time frame charts looks like we are going through a bear trend
  • Range already above the ATR on a weekly basis
  • Volume is still low but we did have Monday which was kind of a holiday


News
  • EIA report today, I don't usually pay much attention to it regarding to NQ, but with what's going on oil-wise, this should be something to pay attention to
  • Some fed speakers today, but they haven't gotten much coverage lately
  • Keep in mind that tonight there are big China numbers coming out, and tomorrow we have quite a bit of numbers and Yellen speaking, so some players might have that in mind when placing bets today

Scenarios
  • Trend bear. Strong volume in the open, little opposition or if there is some opposition it gets counter acted by even stronger bear moves. How we slice through 4750 would help with this hypothesis
  • Balance ~ON Low of ~4875, then explode to the long side, break out at 4800 and continue bull until ~ 4820, 4830 - big correction in the market
  • Balance ~ON Low of 4875, then explode to the short side, until ~ 4720
  • Find support area and range between that area and 4800


Setups I'll take today
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  1. ~4840
    • LF Short
    • You want to see signs that the bull move is over
    • Exhaustion is good enough depending on the time of day
    • IF we had a trend day today, don't take unless you see some VERY strong signs or it's late in the session
    • The later in the day, the better this setup becomes
  2. ~4830
    • LF Short
    • You want to see signs that the bull move is over
    • Exhaustion is good enough depending on the time of day
    • IF we had a trend day today, don't take unless you see some VERY strong signs or it's late in the session
    • The later in the day, the better this setup becomes
  3. ~4800 (PDL)
    • LF Long
    • You want to see signs of a break-out
    • The market has corrected itself and looks to stay within the 3 week balance area
    • You are looking for signs of aggressive buying
    • Safe target ~4814, 4824 stretch target - careful not to get too greedy with this
    • You want to watch the ON high of 4813 and see hwo price / volume react around that area - be prepared to exit with a smaller win if we see strong signs of selling, or a lot of balance
    • Be careful if this is around the end of the day
    • If the buying is very strong and sometime in the morning, you can think about preemptively entering to get a better fill - but be prepared to exit the trade early if you see strong selling at ~4800
  4. ~4800 (PDL)
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for signs that the market isn't going to break out bull
    • Be careful if this is the first setup hit
    • You want to see signs of exhaustion and strong selling, exhaustion won't be enough to enter
    • Keep an eye out on ES to see if it's approaching any strong resistance areas as we get close to this
    • Watch the NQ components
    • 14 pt target is safe, 4780 is doable
    • If you observe very strong selling and this is the first setup hit this morning, you can take 2 contracts. Exit one at ~ 15 pts and hold the other one for longer
  5. ~4775 (ON Low)
    • LF Long
    • You want to see some very strong buying
    • You want to see signs of higher time frame players stepping in to buy
    • Stop behind 4775 is a must
    • Safe target is 4789, stretch target is 4797.50
    • If the buying is super aggressive, you might consider seeing how things play out at ~ the 4800, if we slice through it get a 2nd contract and aim for the 4809 area at least, potentially 4814 - do not get too greedy with this though
  6. ~4775 (ON Low)
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for signs of a break-down
    • You need to be very confident about the market trending down in order to take this as we would be passing the ON low, and getting into territory we haven't seen since September 15
    • You want to see aggressive selling, strong volume or extremely little resistance
    • 4761 is safe target
    • 4753 would be stretch target
    • Ideal stop is behind 4780
    • You will need to watch this trade closely and be prepared to exit if we see strong signs of a reversal
  7. ~4750
    1. LF Long
    2. You are looking for signs that higher time frame players are stepping in to buy
    3. You are looking for the buying to be very aggressive
    4. Exhaustion is not good enough of an entry, you need to see strong signs of a reversal
    5. Be prepared to pass up on this setup
  8. ~4750
    • LF Short
    • You want to see signs that this bear move isn't over
    • You are looking for higher time frame players not stepping in to buy
    • Aim for 15 pts is safe
    • ~4731 stretch
    • If the market goes to the 4742 area, lower your stop to at least break even
    • Be prepared to pass up on this setup
  9. ~4730
    • LF Long
    • You want to see signs that the bear move is over
    • Exhaustion is good enough depending on the time of day
    • IF we had a trend day today, don't take unless you see some VERY strong signs or it's late in the session
    • The later in the day, the better this setup becomes

  10. Setup 10 - Short at open
    • You most likely won't take this setup
    • You need to see a very strong bear profile
    • You want to see signs of panic
    • This is an extension of the 4775 break down trade, you are just seeing the early signs and looking for a better fill
    • Be prepared to exit at ~4775 if we don't break through the ON low fast


Things to watch at open
  • Total volume - will higher time frame players step in right off the open? or wait for a certain price point?
  • Volume profiles - will we see any resemblance of a trend day?
  • Watch the movement very closely, be prepared to take a trade but don't force it

Psychology goals today
  • Do not look at P&L
  • 0 FOMO trades
  • 0 Emotional trades
  • Aim for 2 trades - you can take a 3rd one if you have won at least one of the previous trades, and you have a very good setup
  • Do not get greedy with your trades
  • Do not micromanage trades - Move stop once to secure profits, and target move no more than once and only if you are seeing some very strong movements

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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Old October 14th, 2016, 12:46 AM   #138 (permalink)
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2016-10-13 Summary

3 trades taken today, 1 win 2 losses, but I did end on the positive side today.

Not the greatest psychology day for me, I became very impatient and placed a trade that I should not have. I spent too much time watching the market tick by tick that I got carried away and didn't focus on the right things.

First trade taken

Breakdown short at 4773
I was late on taking this short, I hesitated a bit due to the losses I took yesterday. I felt comfortable that we were moving bear, but I wanted to see stronger signs before I pulled the trigger. This picture shows why I didn't get as big of a win as I would've liked due to that
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Credit to @Blash for the picture

At least I was able to still get a fill just below the area

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My default target was the 59 area but once I got a good gauge of the trend I felt that we could go a bit further than that.
I moved my target to the 57 area, and my stop behind a strong volume area.

I have now guaranteed a profit, and in the middle of a strong trend going my way. This is reasonable in terms of trade management, if I only did it once. In this scenario, this would've been close to perfect exit.

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However, I go a bit further than that and then lower my target, which never ends up being hit. I then have to make a tough decision to exit at the 61 area which is lower than my initial target, and my modified target.

This is a micromanagement and greedy mistake.

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At least I recognized I missed the exit point and got out at 61 as opposed to held on to lose even more.

Second trade taken

This is one of those trades where you just shake your head and think "wtf did I just do, and why? lol". You're not even mad, you are just surprised

No signs apart from the vandles moving down, but that wasn't enough after this very strong bull move, but I just shorted. Part of me felt like I wanted to take a gamble, but why?
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I think I might've been watching things too closely and apart from the one 5 minute big candle move up, everything was so slow. I gotta get back to just walking away when the market is this slow

Obviously this ended up being a loss, I pretty much shorted at the bottom haha
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Third trade taken


I was looking for a strong continuation of the bull trend once we broke through the 4800 mark, but the bull move wasn't going to be that strong anymore.
The entry point I got in at was then too high to be able to reach enough points for a win.

Since the trade I had before was a wtf trade, I just walked away so I wouldn't do any wtf stuff, unfortunately my target was not filled, it was ~4813.
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This is where a rule of moving my stop after 8-10 points would've been good. The market had to go against me 15 points from the top wick in order to hit my stop


Psychology goals today
  • Do not look at P&L - Failed, I don't know why I keep wanting to look at this
  • 0 FOMO trades - I don't know wtf my 2nd trade was, maybe a FOMO trade? I'm not sure if I passed or failed on this
  • 0 Emotional trades -Same as above
  • Aim for 2 trades - you can take a 3rd one if you have won at least one of the previous trades, and you have a very good setup - Somewhat passed, I wouldn't call my 3rd trade a 'very good' setup, just 'good'. I should've passed
  • Do not get greedy with your trades - Failed
  • Do not micromanage trades - Move stop once to secure profits, and target move no more than once and only if you are seeing some very strong movements - Failed

Overall a slightly positive day, but a negative psychology day. China news just came out and both numbers are more positive than expected, and tomorrow we have some news and Yellen talking, so we'll see how things go.

I definitely didn't feel like writing in my journal tonight as I'm tired and lazy, but sometimes you gotta force yourself to do it knowing that it'll benefit you in the long run.

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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Old October 14th, 2016, 10:26 AM   #139 (permalink)
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2016-10-14 Prep

  • ON mostly bullish
  • Retail sales ~ expected
  • PPI within consensus
  • China ON info came in better than expected
  • Weekly range above ATR, and unlikely to grow - we would need to move 65pts bear or 85pts bull to increase it
  • Open is 4868 so unless we see an additional 50 pt bull move, this week will end in the red
  • Despite Monday being a 'holiday', the volume this week is likely to be higher than the previous 3 weeks
  • 40 point bull wick yesterday showing bullish signals
  • Huge bear move down on Tuesday, so we might see some people exit out of their positions at the open if they feel today will mostly go up

News
  • Business Inventories @10
  • Consumer Sentiment @ 10
  • Yellen speaks @ 1230 or 130? Econoday says 1230 and Bloomberg just said 130, I'll watch both

Scenarios
  • Trend bull day, we shatter through the ON easy, we trend with minor pullbacks to 4840, a somewhat strong pullback and from there on we are in the clear until the end of the week move
  • We start with a bull move until ~4840, we then range between ~4840 and ~4800
  • Market opens up until ON high, then moves down to the ~4800 area, we then move up from there until ~4840 or end of the day
  • Market opens up bear and we trend down to the ON low, we then see a lot of buying and market trends bull from there
  • Market opens up bull until ~ON high, then trends bear for the rest of the day
  • Range day between ON high and ON low

Setups I'll take today
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  1. ~4840
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for strong signs of exhaustion
    • You can enter preemptively if the market doesn't seem eager to push up above this, but be careful around the timing
    • You want to see volume picking up ~the 4835 mark
    • If you see aggressive selling then hop on and aim for 15 pts at least, ~4821 for stretch
    • Stop behind 4843 is ideal
  2. ~4840
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for signs of a break out trade
    • You want to see force moving this up
    • The ON high should be taken out without a problem
    • You are looking for signs in the volume profile that we might have a bull trend day scenario
    • If the break-out is strong, and if we destroy the 4850 zone without too many issues, then hold this until ~3-330 unless you see some very strong reversal signs
    • Pay very close attention to the 4850 area, and be prepared to exit should you see enough reasons to exit
    • Don't micromanage this too much please. Move stop once, twice max. Move target once, unless you see strong signs of a bull trend day, then take out target until you see market starting to ramp up again.
  3. ~4820 (ON High)
    • LF Short
    • Likely to be first area hit today - be wary of morning jumps with little direction
    • You are looking for signs of aggressive selling
    • You want to see a volume profile that shows a reversal
    • Do not enter preemptively, you want to see some strong signs before taking this
    • Be prepared to pass up on this setup
    • Ideal stop is behind 4826, target ~4806 for safe, and ~4801 for stretch
    • If the move down is extremely strong, then you may consider moving target to ~4893
  4. ~4820 (ON High)
    • LF Long
    • Likely to be first area hit today - be wary of morning jumps with little direction triggering this
    • You are looking for signs of a break out trade
    • Watch the 4830 closely for signs of reversal - be prepared to exit
    • Ideal setup would include strong signs of a bull trend day from the volume profile
    • Stop behind 4815 is ideal
    • Target ~4837 is safe, ~4847 is stretch but you'll need to watch the 4840 very closely - be prepared to exit
  5. ~4800
    • LF Long
    • You are looking for signs of higher time frame players stepping in
    • Volume accumulating would be ideal, but you might not stay here long if the market feels 4800 is cheap given data from this week
    • You want to be ready to take this setup if selling slows down, we might not be here for a long time
    • Ideal stop is behind 4795
    • Safe target is ~4817, stretch target is ~4827, if the scenario looks like a bull trend day you may target ~4834 but you need to move your stops accordingly to guarantee profit and watch the market closely for any signs of reversal
  6. ~4800
    • LF Short
    • You are looking for signs of panic
    • You are looking for an absence of higher time frame players stepping in to buy at 4800
    • This setup can be tricky because ON low is just 10 points below
    • You need to see a lot of signs that let you know bear continuation is very likely
    • Be prepared to pass up on this setup
    • Watch the ON low very closely, prepare to exit ~ that area at anytime
    • If you pass the ON, don't get too greedy on this. A 14-18 pt trade would be fantastic here
  7. ~4790 (ON Low)
    • LF Long
    • You want to see signs of aggressive buying
    • If higher time frame players step in, then great
    • If 4800 got sliced, then be very careful with this
    • Watch it closely to ensure you didn't just get into a pullback if you do get in
    • You might be tempted to take a short if this gets sliced - Don't do it
    • Stop behind 4784 is a must, so entry might be tricky
    • Target ~ 4897 is safe, but if you break the 4800 area don't settle for anything less than 4806, you might aim as high as 4816 depending on the time
  8. ~4780
    • LF Long
    • You want to see signs of aggressive buying
    • If higher time frame players step in, then great
    • If 4800 and 4790 got sliced, then be very careful with this
    • Watch it closely to ensure you didn't just get into a pullback if you do get in
    • Stop behind 4775 is ideal
    • Target ~ 4896 is safe, but if you break the 4800 area don't settle for anything less than 4806, you might aim as high as 4816 depending on the time
    • Be careful not to get too greedy with this or micromanage
  9. ~4780
    • You are looking for a breakdown trade
    • If you sliced through 4800 and 4790 with little resistance, then you want to look out for this setup
    • Be careful of a trend reversal
    • Be prepared to pass up on this
  10. ~4755 (PDL, monthly low)
    • LF Long
    • Unlikely to hit this
    • You can take preemptively depending on the time
    • This becomes an even better setup ~330 ramp up

Careful ~ Yellen time

Things to watch
  • Volume at open - will it be as high as the last 3 days?
  • Range - will today be volatile if there are players who are still holding out to their shorts from Tuesday?
  • Volume profiles - will we see signs of a range opening, or will we see any profiles resembling a trend day?

Psychology goals for today
  • 0 FOMO trades
  • 0 Emotional trades
  • Do not get greedy pls
  • Do not micromanage trades, stick to your plan on how to manage your trades
  • 2 trades maximum today - so pick your best setups
  • If you find that you are getting restless because you haven't taken a trade yet, just step away and set proper alarms. Yesterday you watched the market like a hawk and took a wtf trade that made no sense

End of the week, let's end today on a positive note whether you win or lose $. You've got a lot to do trading wise this weekend, so you must trade well today so you can be as confident as possible!

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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Old October 14th, 2016, 10:41 AM   #140 (permalink)
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First alarm hit


First alarm hit right ~ the open.


Quoting 
  1. ~4820 (ON High)
    • LF Short
    • Likely to be first area hit today - be wary of morning jumps with little direction
    • You are looking for signs of aggressive selling
    • You want to see a volume profile that shows a reversal
    • Do not enter preemptively, you want to see some strong signs before taking this
    • Be prepared to pass up on this setup
    • Ideal stop is behind 4826, target ~4806 for safe, and ~4801 for stretch
    • If the move down is extremely strong, then you may consider moving target to ~4893
  2. ~4820 (ON High)
    • LF Long
    • Likely to be first area hit today - be wary of morning jumps with little direction triggering this
    • You are looking for signs of a break out trade
    • Watch the 4830 closely for signs of reversal - be prepared to exit
    • Ideal setup would include strong signs of a bull trend day from the volume profile
    • Stop behind 4815 is ideal
    • Target ~4837 is safe, ~4847 is stretch but you'll need to watch the 4840 very closely - be prepared to exit

Took the long and break out trade set up here

The signs for the turnaround on here were almost non-existant so that was an easy pass
Volume profile looked good, bull move up was strong

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Currently watching ~4830 area as we are seeing some bear signs, question is are they stronger than the bull signs?

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