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SoftSoap's NQ Journey - from SoftSoap to SoftGold
Started:August 28th, 2016 (01:13 PM) by SoftSoap Views / Replies:11,942 / 270
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SoftSoap's NQ Journey - from SoftSoap to SoftGold

Old October 3rd, 2016, 05:00 PM   #111 (permalink)
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You have a very good process.
You have feedback loops and grades.

I like your style of journaling.
I like your Psychology Goals a lot. So much fluff by high performers on mental strength, but they do not know what it means, how to do it, or similar. Your psychology goals provide the right process and the feedback gives you something measurable. I applaud you and your journal.

Thank you for the kind words, it definitely helps hearing those from other traders, specially as a starting trader who is not yet profitable.

Cheers!

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Old October 3rd, 2016, 05:04 PM   #112 (permalink)
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Can you share your book you had in a prior post? I must have missed it and any recent reads.

I am an avid reader and researcher. Overall I rank Brett Steenbargers book Enahncing Trader Performance at the top of my trading and performance list for information.

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Old October 3rd, 2016, 05:08 PM   #113 (permalink)
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Can you share your book you had in a prior post? I must have missed it and any recent reads.

I am an avid reader and researcher. Overall I rank Brett Steenbargers book Enahncing Trader Performance at the top of my trading and performance list for information.

The book is trade mindfully by Gary Dayton. Credit to @olobay for recommending this book to me. I haven't gotten as far as I'd like (I'm a slow reader) but it's helped identify some things I do wrong in my trading.

Other traders have recommended Brett's books as well so I'll be reading those as well!

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Old October 4th, 2016, 02:32 PM   #114 (permalink)
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2016-10-04 No trading

Had an unforeseen circumstance in the middle of the night and I just got to my desk. I won't be placing any trades today.

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Old October 5th, 2016, 02:44 AM   #115 (permalink)
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SoftSoap View Post
Had an unforeseen circumstance in the middle of the night and I just got to my desk. I won't be placing any trades today.

I hope everything is alright!

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Old October 5th, 2016, 10:41 AM   #116 (permalink)
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I hope everything is alright!

Good enough to trade today! Will post my prep soon, just watching the market closely right now as some of my alarms have already been triggered.

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Old October 5th, 2016, 10:59 AM   #117 (permalink)
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2016-10-05 Prep

Wow, what a day yesterday. It was honestly VERY HARD, to watch the high volume high volatile environment yesterday and just sit on the sidelines. However, physically I wasn't in a very good state, and mentally I was in a really bad state, to add to that I hadn't done my prep on time and was feeling anxious about it and how the current bear bias would impact my late market prep. One bad trade could very easily spiral out of control. And while I'm not strong enough psychologically to be able to trade when I'm in that state, at least I can recognize those days and just choose to stay out of the market altogether.
  • ON we didn't see much activity. Low volume for the most part and on very little range. Things have picked up in the last hour or so though
  • Yesterday we saw some very strong selling, and some volatility that you usually just see from news. I don't see anything that shows me why the volatility happened, so does that mean we could get this random news-like volatility spikes out of nowhere?
  • Bloomberg mentioned that October sees the most 1% moves up or down out of the year, at ~28 of the days. So that is something I need to keep in mind
  • Currently NQ's top performers are all in the green
  • VP debate did little to move markets. Both VPs just took bullets to help out their respected candidates as expected. While Kaine came off with some good attacks on Trump and repeated strong speaking points. He also came off as rude and flustered when not speaking, thus he loses the debate in people's eyes. Pence was very good at dodging questions but was unable to defend Trump and outclassed Trump debate-wise so this could be good / bad for Trump. If this forces Trump to prepare most in order to show he is a better debater than Pence, then it will be good for him. But if he has a repeat of the first debate, you know the media will make a strong comparison to Pence.
  • 10 day value area is 4835 - 4877


News
  • ADP Employment report came just slightly below the consensus range, and a lot lower than last month.
  • International trade deficit narrowed ~ what was expected, so nothing crazy to note
  • We have 2 fed speakers today, but will they even get any airtime? Who knows
  • Factory orders and ISM no manufacturing at 10am, definitely 2 things I want to pay attention to
  • Petroleum status at 10:30, but that's more for my personal interest
  • Just saw bloomberg talk about this whole EU bonds thing, did this have an impact on the market yesterday? I'll have to research more into things because honestly I'm not very familiar with the bond market and how that has an impact macro-economically speaking

Scenarios

  1. We start off bull until we find a resistance area and trend back down. Depending how far up we find a resistance area, we find support either at the 4870 area or the 4850 area (ON)
  2. We aggressively start with a sell off, and hit ON low, we balance around there with a pullback and then continue to trend down to the 4840 area where we find strong support
  3. We find immediate resistance at the ~4870-4877 area, so we trend down to ~4855 area before slowing things down. We then find strong support at the ON low and move up from there to finish in the green today
  4. We move up relatively fast with very little resistance. We get very close to all time highs and then the market reverses either at new all time highs or very close to. We slowly trend bear to ~ 4870 area and potentially below. We still end green today
  5. Bull trend day - we slowly creep up to break new all-time highs, not much force stopping us from doing it but not much force pushing us too hard either
  6. Bear trend day - we start off aggressively selling, we have high volumes and some volatility in the first few 5 minute wicks. The bear trend ends up winning and we start to see a creeping bear trend. 4850 shows a big of support but just a pullback, then the 4840 area shows another pullback, but we break both of those and continue trending bear until ~ 4820 area or the end of the day. Whichever comes first
  7. We start off very strong on the bull side, break all-time highs in the morning or early afternoon session, and get close to the 4900 before higher time frame players start selling off, we still end quite positive today but at ~ 4880 area

Setups I'll take today


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  1. ~4900 area (untested, would be new all time highs)
    • LF Short
    • Can enter preemptively if the market is slowing down when getting close to this
    • Ideally you want a stop behind the 4903 mark
    • Expect strong selling around this area, so if you see some very strong buying that is absorbing everything be careful
    • If you observe higher timeframe players stepping in and selling hard, you may scale in with 1 additional contract, provided your entry is good
    • If we get close to this very late in the session, this becomes a nicer setup to take
    • If market is below the 4890 area when it closes, you might hold ON
    • Intraday target of 4881 seems reasonable although high. 4873 is a more stretch target
  2. ~4890 area (strong area - 4892.25 all-time highs)
    • LF Short
    • Don't enter preemptively, but be ready for a quick decision here
    • You are looking for strong sellers stepping in and buyers stepping back
    • We are not likely to be here for very long, so you need to make a decision on what signs you will prioritize. Think about this a couple of points before we get to this area, and based on what has happened so far. Don't start thinking about it when your alarm is hit. Consider setting an alarm 7-8 pts earlier to force you to start thinking about it earlier
    • The later this gets hit, the better setup it becomes
    • Stop below the 4893 is a must, behind 4895 is ideal
    • 14 pt target is safe, but you might aim for as low as 4870 depending on the time and the strength of a bear move after this is hit. Don't let greed overcome you though
  3. ~4870 area (weak area) - 2 setups
    • Likely to be the first setup hit today, and you have 2 options so it'll make this difficult
    • Make sure you are confident with a decision on either long or short, but it has to be based on what cards the market has shown you
    • If you don't feel comfortable with either decision, just pass up on this. It's possible that either setups will fail so it's okay to miss out on this trade
    • LF Short initially
    • Observed some selling here and just above the VPOC of yesterday's RTH, and it is currently what slowed the bull trend pre-open. But it is still a weak zone
    • You want to see signs of force moving things down, exhaustion is not enough to enter into this trade
    • We could balance around this area, so be very careful
    • Stop behind the 4877 area is ideal, but might be tough to get, aim for at least 4875 stop
    • 4861 target is a safe target, 4852 would be a stretch target
    • Be prepared to pass up on this setup


    • You will be tempted to take a break-out trade if we break this fast in the first hour of trading, be extremely careful about that setup
    • You can only take a break-out trade if the force breaking this is very strong, because it will need to be strong to best the VA which is at ~4877
    • If you do break the VA, you need to watch it closely and be prepared for an exit at anytime
    • Do not get greedy with this
  4. ~4850 area (ON low)
    • LF Long
    • This didn't hold well yesterday, so don't rely on this
    • You want to see strong signs of a trend reversal, exhaustion is not good enough to enter here
    • If we trend bear at open, this could be the first setup hit
    • Be prepared to pass up on this setup
  5. ~4840 (PDL, reversed trend yesterday)
    • LF Long
    • You want to see signs that any bear move is over
    • IF we creeped up to this area, be extra careful
    • DO not enter preemptively
    • Safe target is 4849, stretch target is 4857 - keep that in mind when thinking about your entry point. If you enter too early your R/R will be shit, so don't do that
  6. ~4820 (strong area)
    • LF long
    • Not likely to hit this today, but if we do then look for signs of strong buying
    • Be extra careful if we have had a bear trend day and we aren't within 45 minutes of closing time


Things to watch
  • Total volume in the first 30 minutes - Will we see a strong day today following yesterday? or will the market cool off for a bit?
  • Range at open- Will we see a big correction at the open? maybe a strong bull move to start us off? or will it just be a mellow open?
  • How quickly will we get to the 4885 area? (blue zone in my graphs)
  • Will oil hit 50 today? Will it stay there? What will the headlines be? Will they show a positive outlook that could have a big impact on the S&P? or will they hint towards a short-lived moment?

Psychology goals
  • Do not look at P&L
  • 0 FOMO trades
  • 0 Emotional trades
  • Engage deliberate thinking in all trades
  • Aim for 2 trades, 3 trades maximum but ONLY if we are having a higher range day, and you won at least 1 of the first 2 trades
  • Do not micromanage trades. You may move your stop to secure a profit once, and if the signs are very very strong you may move your target from safe target to your stretch target once, but you must secure a profit of at least 5 points with your stop. If the signs are weak or moderate and you are hoping that the trend continues without the market telling you that, do not do this.

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Old October 5th, 2016, 12:29 PM   #118 (permalink)
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First alarm hit, came close to second

First alarm hit almost as soon as market opened.

Here's what I had from my morning prep:

Quoting 
[*]3- ~4870 area (weak area) - 2 setups
  • Likely to be the first setup hit today, and you have 2 options so it'll make this difficult
  • Make sure you are confident with a decision on either long or short, but it has to be based on what cards the market has shown you
  • If you don't feel comfortable with either decision, just pass up on this. It's possible that either setups will fail so it's okay to miss out on this trade
  • LF Short initially
  • Observed some selling here and just above the VPOC of yesterday's RTH, and it is currently what slowed the bull trend pre-open. But it is still a weak zone
  • You want to see signs of force moving things down, exhaustion is not enough to enter into this trade
  • We could balance around this area, so be very careful
  • Stop behind the 4877 area is ideal, but might be tough to get, aim for at least 4875 stop
  • 4861 target is a safe target, 4852 would be a stretch target
  • Be prepared to pass up on this setup

  • You will be tempted to take a break-out trade if we break this fast in the first hour of trading, be extremely careful about that setup
  • You can only take a break-out trade if the force breaking this is very strong, because it will need to be strong to best the VA which is at ~4877
  • If you do break the VA, you need to watch it closely and be prepared for an exit at anytime
  • Do not get greedy with this

Early open signs looked quite bullish. But were they strong enough to preemptively take a break-out trade? I didn't think so at the time. However, if I did take the setup here it would've been a good setup.
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We then saw some small signs of resistance but not a lot, the chance of a reversal is very low and I've already decided I won't take a short setup here because of that
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By the time we get to the break-out things do still look bullish, but I'm not confident enough on the setup to take it.
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Second alarm almost hit

Quoting 
2- ~4890 area (strong area - 4892.25 all-time highs)
  • LF Short
  • Don't enter preemptively, but be ready for a quick decision here
  • You are looking for strong sellers stepping in and buyers stepping back
  • We are not likely to be here for very long, so you need to make a decision on what signs you will prioritize. Think about this a couple of points before we get to this area, and based on what has happened so far. Don't start thinking about it when your alarm is hit. Consider setting an alarm 7-8 pts earlier to force you to start thinking about it earlier
  • The later this gets hit, the better setup it becomes
  • Stop below the 4893 is a must, behind 4895 is ideal
  • 14 pt target is safe, but you might aim for as low as 4870 depending on the time and the strength of a bear move after this is hit. Don't let greed overcome you though

Started looking for signs before we got close to this to ensure I could make a fast decision. I did not take a short as it didn't come to an area I thought would be good to place a short trade, specially considering how bullish the first 90 minutes were.

However if we do get close to this area again I feel more comfortable taking this than I did in the first 60 minutes of today's session. Here are my thoughts

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Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity
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Old October 5th, 2016, 01:36 PM   #119 (permalink)
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Alarm hit - First trade of the day

First trade of the month, finally. It was tough holding out this long to be honest but I wanted to make sure I didn't take any FOMO trades just for the sake of taking a trade. Also, the trade needed to be rational and not emotional. I think I hit both of those criteria points in this trade.

I was thinking about getting in around the 4885 area but with so close to lunch time and just not being an area I wanted to enter, I decided to wait and see when it will go up. Within a couple minutes of that the market went up, touched PDH and went 2 ticks above it and then came back down.

I looked at the volume and 1 minute in we were at a high amount so I figured this was going to be a high volume area (relative to the last 30 mins), I then checked out the volume profile and saw enough signs to enter

I said in my prep that I must be ready to make a fast decision when it hits to this level, because we might not be here for long. I initially wanted to get in a couple of ticks above PDH but one of my biggest execution errors now is just missing entry points by a couple of ticks (will discuss in my end of month post today), so I lowered my limit order to ensure a fill.

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Shortly after we started to see some signs that it is reversing. The question is, will it just be a pullback or a 13+ pt reversal? I'm betting on the second one.

Some things make me hesitant though, such as low volume count on the bear candles, and the time (I suck at lunch time trades)

However, I feel comfortable enough to walk away for a bit and let this play out so I don't micromanage my trade (one of my psychology goals)

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This is the mental picture my brain is making when it sees everything above:
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Edit below @ 1:36 PM EST:

Update as we get close to 2 EST here.
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  • Market has moved further down from my initial entry. Low volume, but it was also lunch time.
  • The profiles still look to be in my favor, looking more bearish than bullish.
  • Volume over the lunch period was going up as price was going down, and then right now it has started to slow down as price moves up. I'm expecting that this is a pull back

Looking at where I am right now:
  • Price will have to pass VPOC, some very high volume nodes, and beat the value area just to get close to my entry point.
  • Then to hit my stop it will have to slice through PDH again, as well as all-time highs of 4892.25
  • My entry point is 3 ticks below current day high, which is also currently the week high
  • News was positive today, specially non MFG data which came in a lot stronger than expected
  • Good enough to break new all-time highs though? I don't know
  • Volume for the day doesn't seem anything out of the ordinary
  • Oil has not broken the 50 mark yet, it came within 5 ticks though and is currently within 20 ticks

Decision - Stay in trade, but set an alarm for the VPOC and see how price interacts when we get there. If things don't go bearishly in the next hour you might need to consider pulling out

Yesterday's excellence is today's standard and tomorrow's mediocrity

Last edited by SoftSoap; October 5th, 2016 at 02:48 PM.
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Old October 5th, 2016, 04:57 PM   #120 (permalink)
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2016-10-05 Summary


  • Slow day today
  • 2 opportunities to make money from my trading plan though
  • 1 was a bull move which I did see signs of, but I didn't consider them strong enough to take so I passed up on a good trade (details in a post above).
  • The second trade set up I did take, which was a short at ~4890 area

After over 2.5 hrs in the trade and watching the market barely move, my target was filled. I set an alarm 2 pts just above my target in case I saw strong signs that I should raise my target and my stop.

I managed to move my target up just in time before my target was hit and looked at the signs quickly. They weren't strong enough to be honest, and all I kept thinking was what I wrote this morning:


Quoting 
Do not micromanage trades. You may move your stop to secure a profit once, and if the signs are very very strong you may move your target from safe target to your stretch target once, but you must secure a profit of at least 5 points with your stop. If the signs are weak or moderate and you are hoping that the trend continues without the market telling you that, do not do this.

I told myself that the signs needed to be VERY VERY strong, and they weren't lol, at least not on the intraday timeframe.
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Honestly I do have a good feeling that the trade will continue to trend bearishly, and even into the ON session. But the key word in there is feeling so within seconds I brought my target back to my original area and got filled. Also my psychological focus now is on not being too greedy and micromanaging trades too much.

Trade grade - Excellent
  • It was in plan
  • Observed signs of entry
  • Good target and stop
  • What makes it excellent though is that I adapted to the market by modifying my entry point. Had I not done this, I wouldn't have entered the trade

Psychology review on trade / day
  • 0 FOMO trades
  • 0 Emotional trades
  • Engaged deliberate thinking in all executed trades and potential trades
  • Within my 2 trade limit of the day
  • Micromanaging the trade - I don't want to give myself a 100% pass on this because for a split second I did micromanage it, but I looked at the signs fast and snapped myself back into my plan. However, I did have a lot of thoughts about lowering my stop to guarantee a profit (would've been bad idea), or just exiting out of the trade while I had a profit (also bad idea), and I stopped myself for 2.5 hrs . So mostly a pass, but not 100%
  • Additional plus - lowered my entry limit to ensure I got a fill. If I didn't make this quick decision, I would not have been filled

Overall it feels good to be disciplined and stick to your plan on your first trade of the month, and for it to be positive? even better!



Now I can focus on finishing my End of Month review, I need to post that by the end of the day today!

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