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I've managed my time better this morning and am on schedule. Overnight there was mild strength in both the Asian and European sessions as the ES moved past YH. There was a bit of economic news at 8:30, Housing Starts and Philly Fed were slightly better than expectation and Jobless Claims were right at expectation. JOLTS is at 10:00 so I need to be aware of that if I'm considering a trade around that time; it's not always a market mover but it can be.
I did some review last night and I kept asking myself why I was shorting all day. Why was I trying to fade the FOMC spike instead of looking for a pullback to buy? The answer I came up with was that I didn't agree that the market should rally on the news. It seems pretty dumb now but that's really what I came up with. I didn't think the market should have been doing what it was doing. Basically, I got into prediction mode - a place I DO NOT want to be.
I don't think I traded poorly based on my assumptions, and my trade execution and management was still pretty good I think. But, and the big but, is that I could have been trading in better locations and trading in a better general direction if I'd just listened to the charts. I ended up getting too caught up with what I thought was right and ignored what was unfolding in front of me.
These things don't often happen; most economic news releases these days are very tame. I tend to forget these types of lessons from one event to the next. I've made a note for the next FOMC meeting referencing yesterday. The next time I'll be prepared and on guard as well as the next time after that.
Today I will try to replicate my execution and management from yesterday. If I can trade in this manner consistently I will be pleased. I'll try to be more accepting of new information and be a bit more flexible and listen to the charts. I do tend to get locked into a line of thinking and ignore new information...that's something that's been there forever and will take some time to fix.
10:25
Went short at 84.0, initially targeting a break of the LOD. Once price got to the LOD I decided to take profit 1 tick above. This was premature and in error...I should have just stuck to my initial target. Taking the trade off early was still profitable for +2.25 but I sacrificed nearly 2 points. This changed my RR from over 3 to under 2. My plan is to be profitable from multiple R trades, ones that are north of 3. My WL ratio will be lower but my WLSR will be good. Taking trades off early like this will screw with the math that could make or break the overall profitability of my plan. I know not to do this but I did anyway. I am pleased with the first part of the trade, recognizing the stall and getting into the trade without hesitation. So I got half of it correct.
10:45
If we hit 72 today I'm buying a Powerball ticket.
10:50
I'll consider shorting a stall around 81.50/82 depending on what it looks like. I do wonder if we've got our bottom for today though...
10:55
Got my short in at 80.50, no hesitation. Stop is now at break even per plan.
11:25
Took 75.50 in my short which was my target price going into the trade, so +5.0 on that one. Up 7.25 points on the day, could be up 9 points without my error. I'm operating at 75% efficiency, 2 good (to plan) entries and 1 good (to plan) exit, so 3 for 4 there.
12:20
I got slammed just as I was typing my last update...it actually took me 15 minutes to finish that from when I started.
I was stalking a long as price was moving down. I saw a good entry and bought 75.0; there were a few clues that pointed to a good risk there. Target was/is 79.75 for 3.8R.
I was in a meeting during this time and distracted at doing 3 things at once. I did not have my mindset right at all. I was fearful of giving back some of my profits from the earlier trades and I failed to follow through on my trading plan. Price was hanging around 75.0 for a few minutes and I just bailed at break even to just be out of the trade. This is bad! I knew I was doing the wrong thing but did it anyway, I just didn't control my fear at all. I really have something to work on!
I'm continuing to manage this trade as it progresses. Stop was moved to break even at 1R; price pulled back within 2 ticks of my entry but never got there. Target is 79.75, price has stopped 2 ticks shy of this. My stop is now at 1R as price is very close to the target; I'm not giving back ALL of my profits now that it's this far.
Now 1 tick from target...
14:10
The trade above did hit. I've been in trades today that, had I just followed my management plan, would have me +13.75. The good part is that I was in each of those trades and in with ease - no hesitation. It's the staying in that's been today's problem. I'm not sure if that makes the glass half full or half empty...
Not a lot going on at the moment. I'm sitting here wondering if I'd short the 81's again or let it pass...not sure. Where would I go long? 76's, 73's? Those are all the areas of interest at the moment, I'm sure there will be clues if price approaches any of these. Not sure I'm interested in shorting this last swing high area that stopped right at 80.0; I'd like to see a move above that fail. If I didn't have this desk job I'd be outside enjoying the sunny 60 degree day we have in Florida today.
End of Day
I took a long at 75.50 at 15:10, target was back up to 79.50. Price got to that area of congestion/resistance in the 78's, stalled, then pulled back to my entry where I'd moved my stop to break even. 77.50 would have been a much more realistic target for this trade. I don't want to put too much into a trade or two but I've picked some overly aggressive targets the last few days in the afternoon. I do prefer the higher target to improve my RR, and I need to stick with that for now but I know there are times when I should be more practical. In this case, I had 2 points in the bag at an area of prior resistance; there's a case to be made to cash out here. BUT, what if price hits this area, pulls back a little then buyers get hungry and push this up into this zone? I don't know whether or not this will or will not happen. Maybe with more experience I'll be able to factor in probabilities for given targets. Or maybe I'll decide that it's best from an P/L perspective to never move my stop up to break even, just put the trade on, set the stop and aggressive target and YOLO it. I believe I need a lot more data points before I do the latter and whether or not I ever get to the point of being able to read price well enough to develop probabilities for various targets is unknown and perhaps unlikely.
For the day, I recorded 5 trades within my plan; I took 4 of them. I skipped 1 that was a scratch and doing some review I probably missed 1 outright, though I'm not sure I could have gotten entry based on price as price never broke through my entry price but it did touch a few times. That was a small winner but I'm not recording it since I may not have even been filled.
My trades per plan were +13.75 while I was +7.25. I'm pleased with the +7.25 obviously but annoyed that I was in all of the trades and had I only managed them as I have planned to I would have had a better day all around. It's days like this that I need to maximize my profit potential so I can survive those down periods and come out ahead in the end.
My read of price action was certainly on today; I felt very comfortable in that regard. My entries were perfect; I stalked and pounced without hesitation. I lacked the fortitude to stick with my plan. I'm happy that once again my plan has proven me wrong; I did not beat it. At some point I will learn to trust my plan and I will know that maybe I'll beat it by not following it here and there but over time my plan will beat me. I've done the hard part already, developing the plan. I just need to be a good order taker and follow the manual.
I'll do a bit of review tonight and look for spots where there may have been errors, look for things I may have missed, etc. I'll review the week as well and set my goal for tomorrow.
Tomorrow is my last day trading for a spell as vacation beckons. I took a look at some of my offline journal entries the week before last year's vacation at this time. I had the same bad habit that I do now, taking trades off too soon. But back then I was taking profits for 3 or 4 ticks when my target was 3 or 4 points. I was also indicator trading and really fishing around a lot. I suppose I'm still fishing but I don't feel that I am as much. And while I still have trouble managing my trades, it's better - I do hold some per my plan; back then it was 0.
I suppose I'm trying to put things into perspective. Looking back to last year I see that I had no idea what the hell I was doing; I had no business trading actual money. I also kept thinking that profitability was just around the corner. It never was. I've made it a year plus now and for most of that time I've been trading actual money and I've not gone broke, not even close. I'm now feeling really good about where I'm headed. I know more what I'm doing and why and why it works (or doesn't). I understand that it's all basically just rolling the dice, trying to get that 6 or 8. I understand that the only thing I can ever control is how much money I lose on a given trade and that's it. I understand RR and how I need to fit that into my trading plan to make the math work in my favor. And while I may not be settled with exactly how I view the market in terms of SR, chart types, time frames, etc. I'm narrowing it down instead of expanding it and adding more stuff. I've removed every single indicator, I don't even use a moving average or anything. I've been recording the range and post 40-minute range expansion for the last year plus and I'm starting to really use that information and understand when to look at it and when it does not apply to a particular day.
It's sinking in slowly. I don't think profitability is just around the corner, it's probably still far away. Last year I was not okay with that reality (I didn't really think that way) but I've now come to accept how long this journey actually is...never ending perhaps.
This may be my best trading week so far, even with the mistakes. I'm recognizing the mistakes very quickly now. Sometimes (like today) I could feel myself making the mistake while I was doing it; I was just too distracted to stop myself. I would like to think that if I didn't have an office full of people and an audience on the phone I would have just gone for a walk to get away - I've done that before.
Tomorrow will be extremely challenging for me; maybe the hardest day I've had yet. I'm up nicely from today and I'll not want to give any back, it's mine! But I need to just stick to the plan and put the trades on and manage them. Fear will be with me tomorrow and I'll need to face it and deal with it if I'm to have a successful day and follow my trading plan.
Quiet overnight. The European session pushed price up about 6 points but stalled at the 81 area that price reached just after the cash close yesterday...interesting. This could be an area of interest off the open for sure.
As I said yesterday in wrapping up, today's going to be maybe the most difficult trading day I've had in a long time, definitely the most difficult of this year. I'm coming off of a really good day so I will be tempted to stay out of the market, not wanting to take losses. I need to be aware of this today and overcome what will come naturally to me.
I've done a bit of thinking about my morning routine, of which there really isn't one. I post some thoughts here and check a few things but that's it. It wasn't that long ago that I was meditating and doing this and that and being mindful and reading quotes of inspiring things, listening to snippets of different traders talking about risk or trading psychology. None of that stuff made a difference for me at all, even though many of the people I was listening to swore by it. I guess that shows how different we all are, and that you don't know until try it. You've got to try so many things to figure out what works based on who you are; it's like some giant logic puzzle or something.
I'm pretty comfortable with my loose routine. I'm not sure what that mean if it even means anything, I just find it interesting.
So today my focus is getting into good trades (good as in per my plan). I can't manage a trade that I'm not in, so I'm really just going to try to click the mouse at the right time. I'll deal with the management aspect after that. Maybe I'll go take a walk outside for a while...it's supposed to be sunny and low 70's here.
10:30
Despite a pretty good opening range nothing to sink my teeth into yet. I was interested in a short in the 81's but there was nothing for me to trade although price rejected there...just too fast for me. Staying patient and alert at this point. I know there will be at least a few good opportunities today; I just need to stay focused and engaged and continue with price analysis.
11:30
Pretty slow walk down type day so far...definitely lower on the volume side of things. I have not placed a trade today; there really have not been areas where I've found a good location. Perhaps the best, looking back, was to sell based on the failure at the 80's but I was looking at the time for a re-test of 81's to fail. Maybe I should have been more on my toes, but I don't think this is a good area based on my trading plan and at current I just don't see how I would justify selling here. Maybe I'll reconsider during my post market review.
At the moment I'm just looking for some kind of a move with some volume behind it to analyze. I could sell if we drift a little higher from here and stall out over the lunch period but I don't fancy buying something that drifts lower.
I'm headed out for a bit to grab lunch and enjoy the fresh air and sunshine...hopeful there will be some volume in the afternoon, maybe traders closing out positions for the week or something. It is quad witching so there's a good chance that something will happen.
12:50
Back from lunch, didn't miss a whole lot. Reviewing price while I was out it's pretty clear I would have/should have tried a long in the 74's/75's looking for a double bottom...plenty of evidence to trade in that area. Being honest, what would have happened is that I'd have been stopped out to the tick and then been unable to gain reentry as price moved up too quickly once I had another confirmed bottom. Price did come back right to the level where I'd have placed a limit order but did not move through it, so maybe it would have filled but not being able to go back and see if all of the contracts were taken out at that level I can't count it. So, for the trades to plan today it's 1 trade and 1 stop loss.
Not much happening at work today so I'll be able to place attention on the ES and look for something in the afternoon.
End of Day
I had data feed/brokerage issues through Tradingview in the afternoon; I was getting charting data but could not connect through my broker. So, no trades at all. I was unsure a lot today as well; there were a few points where I didn't know whether I was bullish on price or bearish. Looking at it now it's a little more clear but at the time it certainly was not. It really was an odd day.
I did find myself short in the afternoon in no-man's land...definitely an entry that does not fit with my plan; I was just wanting to trade I guess. I entered then reconsidered after my order had filled. I paused, thought about my trading criteria and realized that this trade did not fit at all. So I was able to exit at break even and stand aside. It wasn't long after this that my data issues began.
I like to believe that there is potential profit making opportunity each day in the market. Today I do see where there were spots. Perhaps the best spot was the move to lows around 11:30 and I was away at the time. I don't think I would have been able to get an order filled at that point anyway. I suppose selling the run up to 82's just after 14:00 could have been good as well but by then I was unable to trade.
So while it wasn't a wonderful end to a good week, I did learn a bit and it was free. I do have real trouble with getting locked into a particular mindset and won't let it go. If I'm looking to short, it's hard for me to switch this mode to buying - I'm not flexible enough in this regard. The market is constantly providing new information and I need to do a better job of accepting this and using it. I've recognized this in the past and it happened on FOMC day when I was only looking to sell the news reaction, ignoring the pretty obvious long trade that was available. This happened again today; I just got locked into a sell mode and could not switch, even though I should have at one point.
I'm pleased that I am recognizing this. It took me until after the market was closed to see this on Wednesday but today I realized it much sooner, so that's good. I'm making a note to remind myself to check my bias more often and make sure it's still valid given the new information.
It will be a while before I post again, either the 30th or 31st.
Just back from vacation. Playing catch up at the moment. I'll do review and things over the weekend and should be ready to resume trading next week. Vacation's are great...already planning the next one!
I did take a few trades today. I am focusing on being more patient and letting the trade play out a bit longer and give it a good chance to hit my target. I liked the idea of shorting around 65 since price was moving into this area but just could not push past it. I finally did get in a good spot at 65.50 and watched happily as it moved to +6 points very easily. My target was the LOD at 58.50. At this point I moved my stop down to +6 ticks to protect some profits, thinking that there's no way it would get hit.
The reaction at 59.50 was concerning as that area was clearly bought on big volume, but there are plenty of examples where this happens and that price is re-tested later. I told myself that I would watch the re-test and if we could not get 58.50 then I'd look to exit. Unfortunately for me, 59.50 ended up being a swing low and what was +6 points turned into +6 ticks.
Now, my plan is to seek bigger winners, it is part of the overall strategy that I'm working at the moment. I'm looking for trades that are in the area of 3R or higher. And just trading 1 contract at a time, it's all in and all out. I would have loved to scale somewhere in between my entry and my aggressive +7 point target but I can't' scale, it's pick an entry and a target and let it run or not. It turns out that my target was a little too aggressive, but I believe it was logical. There have been times and will be times when I pick the same type of target and it will get hit where this one did not.
Anyway, this one sucked. Watching 18 ticks of profit evaporate isn't fun. I'm not sure I did the right thing, even though I traded according to plan. Should I have trailed a tighter stop? Should I have taken profits once I saw the reaction at 59.50? Why did I think price would fail before my +6 tick stop was hit? But I stuck to my plan at least, flawed as it may be. I didn't read enough danger into the 59.50 reaction to step outside of the plan...maybe I should have.
Maybe the answer is just "shit happens" or maybe it's something else. It's something I'll look at but really I need to just stick to the plan for a while until I get more trades in with it to change anything. I don't believe I was greedy and I believe the initial target was at least logical. Maybe when I review later I'll see a mistake...
Man, not a great way to begin a new trading week. I took a short at 56.0 at 10:39, target was ~5 points. The entry was smooth and the trade never really took any heat and started to work quickly. My plan was to move the stop to break even close to the LOD at 52.75 in case there was some buying down there. Unfortunately, I just could not stick to my plan and once the trade got 6 or so ticks of profit I moved my stop to break even - despite me trading against my plan for no good reason. I don't know why I just could not follow my plan but I just could not.
So...price pops up and takes me out at break even. Instantly I knew I'd regret this; I knew I'd messed up. Price then went on to hit my target plus a lot, but I've left many points on the table here by not simply sticking to my trading plan. I feel bad at my lack of discipline as well as the missed profit. This is of course my main problem, not sticking to my plan once I am in a trade.
I did not hesitate at all upon entry, so that's a positive. I've been very good about avoiding hesitation recently, it's just the sticking to the plan during the trade that's hurting me. I'm going to try to dust this one off and move on for the rest of the day and really focus on not making more errors...hopefully this will sting for a while and I'll be more disciplined.
12:40
Tried to catch a long off the push down to 2340.0 but I could not catch one as price moved too quickly for me. I set a limit order which did not fill initially...I moved it up a tick and price just didn't come back to get me in. I followed my entry rules so I'm okay with missing the trade as there's nothing different I could have done based on my criteria and plan. As Flava Flav said, "that's the way the ball bounces, G".
14:45
Been favoring the short side until about now. I tried a couple of shorts 49 and gave both of them some time to pan out but ended up scratching both. I did stick with my plan for both of these trades so I'm pleased with how I entered and managed them.
I wasn't really reading much strength in this move higher off the low until about 14:40 when the ES had a little lift off. We're getting a little stall around the morning low at this point but I'm no where near ready to just jump in and short here. I'm not opposed to shorting this area as there's enough to like about the idea but I'm not comfortable with what I'm seeing as market strength at this point. If we pull back then make a weaker run at it, preferably moving above this swing high of 53.75 to suck in some more longs then I'd potentially be interested.
Otherwise, I'm looking to possible buy a pullback off of this move up. I'd want something around the 50's, maybe getting some trapped shorts exiting around there close to break even to create some additional demand to get price moving back up.
Or price could just consolidate here for a little bit and make another big move higher in which case I'll just watch from the sidelines.
15:45
Wrapping up today. It's a bit of a shame I didn't get to trade too much in the afternoon but nothing materialized for me. Overall, my trades to plan today were profitable. Had I caught the long near the LOD it would have been a really big day. For my actual trades I was down a few points due to the mistake of bailing on the good trade I was in this morning too soon. Yet another day where my mistake was the difference between profitable and not.
I'm quite pleased with my entries today, and in general as of late. I'm not hesitating at all. I'm also pretty relaxed after I'm in the trade even if I'm taking some heat. It's when the trade starts to get profitable that I'm making errors lately, either by exiting too soon or moving my stop to break even too soon. However, it's not been so long ago that I was very trigger shy with entries so I'm glad that's not a big issue lately.
I would have liked to have participated in some way in the rally after 14:00 but the ES just would not pull back to an area to let me in. I don't need to and certainly won't catch all of the moves up and down the ES makes and there were enough that fit my trading plan today to turn a small profit, so that's what I'll focus on. After my extremely poor decision to start the morning and week, my decision making was very good after that. I'm glad that I did not let my mistake ruin my entire trading day; I was able to move past it and focus on the now and not worry about what I did right or wrong before.
I'll do my post market review this evening and come ready tomorrow to have a mistake-free trading day.
I have the same problem you're facing: good entry but poor trade management. Got short at 57.75 today aiming for the 50 area but got out at the tiniest little buying pressure....left with only 5 ticks instead of > 5 points.
Maybe we should just close our eyes and take a nap once our entry is filled
Yea, it's tempting. I have certainly considered just entering an OCO order with my stop and target and walking away, but I don't think that will actually do anything to solve the issue that I need to face and overcome. Perhaps with more confidence in the plan and continued effort the discipline will come.
Light news day, only factory orders at 10:00 and those are not generally a market mover. Clear bearish price action during both the Asian and European sessions heading into the US open. Several nice looking areas for trades today and my work schedule is pretty light.
I'll be focusing on my fear today, trying to recognize it and just work with it. It is certainly fear that is getting in the way of good trade management. If I can continue to click the mouse to enter positions and control my fear once in the trade I'll be fine. I'd also like to work on my analysis a bit, being more open to incoming information and not getting locked into a trade direction. After reviewing yesterday, I see where I was really locked into selling after 13:00 when the ES was clearly moving up. I tried two shorts around this time and both scratched. These were good trades based on my plan but I never considered a long trade. Reviewing price action between 13:00 and 14:30 there is a real case to enter long after the ES dropped to re-test 45's and failed and I just did not see it - I had blinders on. This is inexperience and a lack of screen time. It's something I also need to recognize and be cognizant of, I need to bring it forward in my consciousness and pay a little more attention to it so I can develop this area as well.
10:12
No trades yet today, not getting what I'm looking for so far. Nice opening range (40-minute). I have noticed that this year when the opening 40-minute range is >7 points there's a tendency toward one way traffic for the day, that is that the high or low is dominant versus the open rather than the high or low being more balanced versus the open. In terms of percentages, 81% of the time the range is > 7 points either the high or low versus the open is dominant. I'm not sure I'll be trading using this but it's something I'll keep in mind if we break the IB area.
12:30
Just tried shorting the second pop to 56 that failed but I scratched it for break even (short was at 55.0). I moved my stop according to my plan but man, this when to move my stop to break even is driving me half insane. I'd really rather not just set a target and stop and leave them until one is hit as I believe there's definitely benefit in managing the trade to an extent as price action unfolds, but I'm not sure my method is suited to me.
I'm definitely going to stick with the plan and just record what happens and what would have happened and consider alterations after I've got a good sample of trades. My entries are become simple for me and the conflict over whether or not to act is slowly fading away. There really is no conflict on my trade target, I pick what I believe is reasonable and it's set. There is also no conflict on initial stop placement, that's easy. The only conflict is in the management of the trade in terms of moving my stop to protect profits. I should be moving my stop to break even at the next level of potential support or resistance as I don't want a profitable trade to turn against me. But there are times where I should be giving the trade a bit more room to breathe. This is the area where there is the most discretion for me at the moment...maybe this is just me getting used to what I am seeing and what I should be doing.
14:12
I would have liked to stayed in that short from earlier; maybe I bailed a little too early but price was hitting an area of prior support. I did expect a bounce there and should have expected one but I didn't want the profitable trade to get stopped out for a loss. I guess I could have let it bounce then re-test before moving my stop to break even; there's some merit to that given the time of day. Not much else has happened since that one for me to consider. Perhaps with Europe out of the way we will get a little price movement going.
14:40
Stalking the 56's here. Price has testing and made a new HOD by 1 tick at this point and pulled away. I'd really like to see another run at it fail, maybe breaking higher by a few ticks or a point or something to suck in some longs. If that happens I'll be all over a short but I don't see shorting here without another test higher first. It's very possible that I could miss a good trade but the way price has looked since ~13:30 I really don't trust it to just reverse on one test.
15:40
It's too late in the day for me to be entering a trade so I'm wrapping it up. I was able to short the 56 area that I was stalking, getting my order in at 55.0. I was looking for a re-test of either 50.50 or 48.50, the swing lows from 13:00 and ~10:50. Given the struggle to move higher and the double top I believed this was a good target. I was aware of support at 52.50 from 13:30 and 13:48 and I did expect a reaction if price were to reach this level. This 52.50 level would have been a good initial target to scale if I were trading more than 1 contract. As it is, I'm looking for the first level to fail and am targeting the next level up or down.
Price reacted off of 52.50 as I expected but went sideways for a bit, so that was encouraging. By this time my stop had been moved to break even, I did that when price was at 53.0 as I didn't like seeing the stall that soon. So then there was that nice pop at 15:30 that took me out at break even.
I would not have really managed the trade much differently. I did move my stop down a bit too early and that could have taken me out of the trade too soon...I really do need to be more patient and let things develop more. It's very hard for me to see a trade working and not be inclined to at least not lose. This issue used to see me exit my trade for a few ticks of profit, so I suppose there's progress in that I'm not doing that anymore.
In addition to price action and SR levels, I've also been watching the NYSE TICK a lot more lately. I've done this off and on since almost forever but never really felt I got much benefit from it. I do think I'm starting to see the benefits though; that might be because I've simplified everything else. It certainly isn't THE story, but it has been helping me understand what is happening and provides another clue as to what's going on in the moment.
While I was waiting for my last trade to hit my target or get me out I looked at my last 28 trades. Out of those, 16 have hit at least 1R (57%). I'm not real big on exiting at some arbitrary R value but I think I'll start tracking the max R each trade makes if it moves past 1R. Maybe if I see that I'm getting 1.5R or something over a larger series of trades I could do something with that.
The expansion of the opening range didn't leave a lot for me to act upon today unfortunately. It will be important tomorrow for me to be ready and alert for trading. I do have some meetings at work mid-day, so I'm sure the markets will go nuts during that time
The ADP Employment report this morning was REALLY good and it looks to have driven the ES higher. There's a bit of news today with ISM at 10:00, which isn't something I generally pay a lot of attention to but I'll watch today given the ADP reaction and the EIA report at 10:30, which is not something I usually worry about. The FOMC minutes are released today at 14:00 so that could be interesting and I'll be out of the market prior to that.
I did an extensive amount of review last night in between watching the Black and Yellows take apart Hamburg on DVR. I'm going to continue this during premarket as well as during slow periods today. I'm getting a different feeling from my review and I've noticed a few things that I had not really seen before. I need to continue looking and studying since my mind seems to be tuned properly at the moment.
10:20
Really strong move up off the open, not all that surprising given the ADP number and reaction or maybe it's something else all together. My concern is that the market has put it's move in for the day and will just snooze somewhere around here until 14:00...we shall see.
13:30
Just left a really long meeting to see the ES is a bit range-bound. As an aside, I believe that 90% of meetings are unnecessary and unproductive and over half of what is discussed in the 10% of meetings that are productive is unproductive and a waste of time and oxygen. But, duty calls at times and it could be a lot worse
I did trade a series this morning exactly as I'd have wanted to. I initially entered long at 72.50 for a continuation of the upward momentum. I kept an open mind about this and continued to watch critically. As I received new information I decided that long was wrong and I reversed to a short at 71.50, taking a 4 tick loss on my initial entry. Regardless of the outcome beyond that point I was pleased with my actions. I was acting on what I was seeing and being nimble. The market was telling me to be short and I listened. It is very possible that I would have been double-faked and the market would indeed move higher, creating a small loss followed by a full stop out. That's fine, because I would be trading my plan and trading the mentality I've tried to implement today and ongoing.
The result of reversing was good, and I exited that portion of the trade +4.25 points, so +3.25 points on the sequence. I'm happy to have been rewarded by the market for my decision, but happier that I traded 100% exactly the way that I would like to trade in this moment and moving forward. Though it's not my most profitable trade ever, it's really the first time I've been this aware during a trade and unafraid to just act on the information I'm getting and interpreting. This is a nice moment of progress for me today.
I'll be free for a bit but not entering the market prior to the FOMC minutes. I have a "quick" meeting at 14:15, this one is probably the 10% kind which could be productive. I'll hold off on any trades until I feel I have a grasp on how the minutes have been absorbed, etc.
End of Day
Missed a good chunk of trading after the FOMC minutes, several trade opportunities were presented and I just let them pass by. I was not in a good mindset in the afternoon, skittish. I am attempting a bit of a mindset shift so this is normal. I hate to keep saying this but I'm still defining how I am as someone who trades ES. I believe I had a real revelation last night...a light bulb type moment perhaps. We will see. Being naturally cautious and risk averse has kept me alive and in the game perhaps but it's not what I want to be going forward. Waiting for the "perfect" trade is limiting my exposure to the market and I believe is detrimental to my results. I have been aggressive but selectively. I need to loosen up and just roll with what I'm seeing. I was able to do this with perfection in my first trading sequence of the day. And then, just like Tyler Durden losing it between punches from Big Lou, I lost it.
I've done a lot of review and marking charts this afternoon after the last trading opportunity passed by just after 15:00. I knew at that point that I should just do something more productive. I was not angry or even disappointed; I understood what had happened in terms of my inability to click the button. It's down to practice and a lack of confidence, this being again a little different style I'm trying to adopt. Same market read, same price action and structures, just approaching it with a different mentality. It will take some time for me to build confidence in this to the point where I will be able to enter the market effortlessly as I was; it will come and go.
Post and premarket (as time allows) I will replay prior days (manually - I don't have a real market replay option) and go through reads with the mindset that I want to use in my approach to entries. Doing this will shorten the learning curve and allow me to build confidence more quickly.
I might adjust this over time and go back to being more passive, I don't know. I'm working mostly off a feeling that I have that hit me last night during my review. It was one of those, "holy crap - how come you've not been looking at it THIS way before" kind of things...maybe like flipping the picture upside down and seeing the image more clearly. It's hard to explain and maybe it's just a passing fancy but it's something I worked through and need to explore in my trading. Maybe I like it and it sticks or maybe I continue searching for who I am and who I need to be. Either way, I'll do my best to embrace and enjoy the process and journey that I'm on.
Anyway...2 trades today for +3.25. I left some profits on the table as well.
Quite rangy overnight in the ES with a bearish Asian session and a more bullish European session. I'm looking forward to seeing how today develops off of the FOMC minutes. I would not be surprised to see a little strength based on the European session this morning into early afternoon. Depending on how things shape up this could maybe foretell a trend change after 14:00.
I did a little review last night but not a great deal. I'll do some before the open this morning as there's nothing on my work calendar. I will attempt to put myself in a good mindset to get into the market more often and take more chances today. I'd like to be able to read, process, react and just not care about outcomes and focus on process. It's the mental capital that I use on the outcome that gets in the way of my focus on process. I believe I have a clear plan so when I am able to identify x,y, and z I need to act upon it. There is of course discretion but in most cases I do have enough experience to decipher the message. I have a clear objective for today and I'm going to try and just focus on what I need to do in each moment today, not worrying about what I did yesterday or what I might do tomorrow...only right now matters.
10:00
Holy volatility! These fast price swings are not allowing me entry points using a limit order...price is just running too fast.
15:10
Not quite calling it a day today but I most likely will not take any more trades. The volatility around the open had me on my heels and I don't want to get caught in that near the close. There will be a day when this type of volatility does not bother me but it's not something I've seen in some time and it certainly took me by surprise. I didn't mind the volatility after the FOMC minutes were released yesterday as the price action was familiar whereas this morning it was just extremely whippy.
Price was certainly in a dead zone for a few hours in the late morning and early afternoon. During this time I reviewed the opening sequence many times. I see where there's a good entry long for me just after the move down to 45.0. I did look at trading this area real time, calculating the RR and everything. I made a mistake on my target selection and noticed this during my review. The target I looked at in error only provided 1.1R so I passed on the trade. Proper target selection, as I have it spelled out in my plan, would have put the RR at 2.64 which is acceptable. Now, I did take the short off the subsequent move up, but trading well I would have been reversing that long position into my short, collecting 5.0 points in the process.
I'm putting this into the category of a trading error BUT it's of a different sort - more of a technical error. I can honestly say that I was a put off by the larger than normal stop loss that an entry there would have required. Maybe subconsciously I selected a poor target to avoid the trade and pain...I don't know. I've not kicked myself over it but made a note.
I was not nearly as active as I wanted to be today. I skipped trades that were according to plan in the morning because the volatility basically put me off. Once things settled down I was able to adopt my desired mindset. My first entry stopped out for -2.0 points. I swear it was just recently that I would have said, and typed somewhere "of course this stopped out". But today I just kind of thought, "whatever" and went back to watching. I honestly didn't give a damn...that's not really normal for me.
I scratched another trade...perfect entry and management and kept on. Then the dead period hit and I went back and reviewed and understood my error. Again, I just kept on.
I was happy to see the rally out of the lunch period as I was keen on shorting this. Maybe it's not correct to see it this way but I thought the European session would artificially prop up the US session and once we approached the Euro close we'd have a good chance of a reversal...in this case lower. I was not locked into this theory and I would have gone long after 14:00 had the opportunity been presented, but I certainly preferred selling a rally today.
I got what I was looking for at 13:39 and sold 59.50. This trade just kind of sat for a while but eventually moved a little in my favor. I was tempted many times to tinker, either just getting out of the trade or moving my stop down to break even. I'm happy that I did not do that and just traded my plan.
My exit was prior to my target but I did not like what price was doing in the 55's and I had identified this as a potential reversal point so I took my profit here for +3.25. Price did end up moving lower, much lower and I could have had many more points but my exit was prudent and within my trading plan so I'm good.
So I have a small profit of +1.25 points today. I under performed versus my plan but that's down to missing the first trade that ended +5.0. I won't always miss that. I did not enter as many trades as I could have today but I'm okay with that for today. I made progress and when I was putting my mind to it I did what I needed to do. Today was a day that I can say I made a bit more progress and that's important.
Despite this progress, I can see how challenging this will be for me. I might call what I'm trying to do overtrading but really I'm just trying to put myself into the market more often to catch the larger rotations. I will never catch these if I'm not in the market. I realize that there will be many days where I'll be nicked and cut but the cuts will be minor. Given my RR I really only need to catch 1 or 2 rotations to basically guarantee a profitable day. Today I caught 1/2 of one only and my win rate was just 33% but I still finished profitable. I know there will be days, and I have reviewed days when the win rate is much higher and those days are very profitable. Even on days where my win rate is 25% I should be getting close to break even if not at break even. However, this really isn't in my nature, to trade this often, so it will require time to get myself comfortable doing so. I will get there though.
I may have some free time for some good review tonight. If I do I will take good advantage of it and come prepared tomorrow. Trading tomorrow could very well be defined by the 8:30 NFP number. I'm rooting for +175K, right on consensus. I've had enough news mania market moves this week to last me a while.
