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Running well behind this morning. I get ready to leave to take the kids to school and I have 2 low tires (1 that was patched on Monday), so I have to stop to put air in those which put us behind in the school's car line which took a minute short of forever...ugh.
The overnight range was more expansive than usual and it looks like we will open near yesterdays VAH, but an open within value. It looks like there was a delayed reaction to the jobless claims news from this morning, which is odd. The number came in right around consensus so I'm not sure what the drop was about...it was very small either way.
I will probably not get much of a chance to trade today, especially in the morning, though I will if I am not too busy. I'm clearly getting more comfortable getting into setups, it's just that they have been pretty unclear so far this week. My plans are:
1) I would again prefer a move up off the open and would be aggressive in shorting in the 74.75 - 75.50 zone. I could see price falling short of this area so I would also look to short pVAH at 72.0, though less aggressively. From here I would look for a breakdown through lunch with the market finding support lower before moving back up in the afternoon, as has been the case lately.
2) If we push lower off the open I would be interested in going long in the 67-68 area. I won't be aggressive here, but I would get more aggressive in the 64-65 area. In this case I would expect either the market to stall down here creating a big profile followed by a move up in the afternoon or the market to bounce higher before stalling out below 81.50 or so.
In either event, I really don't see any big moves higher or lower today. The trend is certainly down, and I'd lean that direction early with another late rally.
End of Day Update
Pretty crazy day at work for me so I didn't get to do much trading. I did get a trade in this morning around the 10:00 news that I scalped for +1.0. I actually forgot there was 10:00 news and I put the trade on a bit before. I had a stop in buy I still got lucky and I bailed as soon as I realized my mistake.
I did put a trade on this afternoon; I got a nice bearish divergence close to 68.0; we'd been failing at that level since 12:30. I put a short on at 2166.25 but after 5 minutes I started getting nervous as it wasn't moving down. A few minutes later I messed up and bailed at break even...I knew this was the wrong thing to do but the fear of taking another loss took over and I started finding reasons I should not be in the trade. In short, I didn't follow my plan - this is again what I am always doing.
After exiting for break even I got up and went to the bathroom. When I got back, the trade was a nice winner; it eventually hit my 2R target for +4 points. Of course this happened. My demon again appears and what do I do - absolutely fucking nothing. I closed my DOM, I'm pissed.
My goal is the same thing every day, just take a trade and stay with my plan. I'm not going to count a trade that moves against me and just stops me out toward this because I don't have to really do anything. I just need to stay in a damn trade and follow my plan. So today, I certainly did not achieve my goal.
I ended the day +1 on 2 trades. I ended the day pissed off at myself again. It's back to the mental circle I keep running with myself.
I will give myself a little credit in that I was pretty good at getting into the trades as they were setting up today, particularly the second one. I'm continuing to make progress in this area. I have made at least 1 trade every day this week, and that's out of the norm for me. Today was also a whirlwind as I got to work late and was in meetings for much of the day; I was totally out of sync. This is not why I made an error on my afternoon trade, but I have felt rushed and behind all day.
Tonight I will try to go to bed early and get a good night sleep. I will leave extra early in the morning to drop the kids off at school and do everything I can to be at my desk and ready to go at 8:30 for the jobs report. I'd like to get a good start to the day tomorrow and not be behind all damn day.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Very odd reaction to the NFP miss this morning. Given the miss I would have expected an impulse move lower but we went up. Maybe the miss means a lower chance of a September rate hike (?). Either way, I don't trust the move up.
At this point it looks like we will be opening above pVAH and pHOD, or at least close to that area. This would signal a possible trend up day, so buying any early dip would be the way to go.
Weekly highs and lows are most likely to occur on Friday, with Monday being next. If we are to make a new weekly high today we'd need to hit 82.50. I see 75.0 as the line which needs to break and hold to the upside if we've got a chance at 82.50 today. If we can't get over 75.0 then I think we could be headed lower or headed for a range day.
My plan:
1) I will be watching 75.0 in the pre-market. If we test and fail in this area I will be less bullish for the day and will look to sell moves higher.
2) If we can break 75.0 and hold there I will look to buy dips and will be expecting a range day higher. I will look at 82.50 as a potential target.
Goal for today: The usual, get into a trade and stay in according to my plan, no matter how uncomfortable I get.
End of Day Update
Not much to trade today, which is a little frustrating given the fact the market moved a good deal. Everything seemed like it was in slow motion today...tough day for me to trade.
I came really close to shorting 82.50 this morning. I was getting a bearish divergence around 10:00 but the divergence wasn't that strong and the market was really moving up off the NFP so I was skeptical that a short would work here. The hardest trades are the most profitable ones, the easy ones are losers; this is how my week has gone. I skipped the trade at what was about a point below the HOD.
I got a lot more divergences later in the morning but the range was just too tight to justify putting a trade on. The market was moving a bit during lunch, and I don't normally trade during this time but since the market was active I did. I put a short on after the bounce off the volume low at 72.50, looking for a test of that low. I was pretty cautious as the market was moving up, and I thought that might be the bottom, and there's no guarantee of a retest. Price moved in my favor 4-5 ticks and I moved my stop to break even as the trade had gone on for a while without doing much. I stopped out for break even on that one, which was fine.
I went short again at 14:47. I recognized that the market was moving up from a failed retest of the lows, and I recognized that the setup I was eyeing was a lot like Tuesday's market in that we were moving up the the afternoon - I went short there and stopped out for a loss too. However, this is Friday and not Tuesday and just because a setup didn't work on Tuesday doesn't mean it wont work on Friday - this is what I thought. I was getting bearish price divergences and price was up against VWAP and a SR zone I had marked. Additionally, price had already failed several times at this area earlier in the day, so despite the bullish market I had a lot of reasons to believe a short would work here. I put the trade on and waited and watched. I had a few chances to cut my loss pretty close to break even but I told myself not to. Time and sales was very bullish with a lot of big buying, but I held on - I didn't want to find a way to talk myself out of the trade. In the end, I got stopped out for a 6 tick loss.
I still cannot decide if I'm glad or mad that I took this trade. Part of me knew the market was moving up and that this was too much like Tuesday, but the other part of me kept saying that I have to trade my setups and my plan. This week, at least, it seems like when I listen to my logical side I lose money - and that's frustrating. This week has been pretty crappy from that standpoint.
I can say that I did hit my goal today; I got in and out of some trades well. But I STILL have not been able to get into a trade that is or would be profitable. At this point I'm wondering what in the hell I actually have to do to get into a trade that might make a little money because there were a grand total of 0 this week.
I'm very glad it's a 3 day weekend because I need the extra day off, it's been a rough week for me honestly.
I took 2 trades today, for a break even exit and one for a 6 tick loss. Total on the day -1.5 points.
Negatives for the week:
1. I made a trade outside of my plan which lost money
2. I lost money.
3. I micromanaged a trade and exited early, costing me 4 points.
Positives for the week:
1. I got into at least 1 trade each day.
2. I cut down on the number of error trades. Last week 83% of my trades were error trades, this week the percentage dropped to 25%.
3. I continued to practice a morning routine which is helping greatly. I continued to meditate twice before the open, which was helpful.
4. I feel more calm in the morning and not as rushed. I still wish I had more time in the morning to prepare but this is impossible, so I'm making the most out of the time that I have available.
5. I felt very comfortable putting orders into my DOM to get into trades. I've not felt this comfortable with this before. Actually, comfortable isn't 100% accurate, I don't feel much emotion at all placing orders where before I had a lot of anxiety.
6. #5 is surprising as I had a grand total of 0 winners this week. So, even though I keep making trades that get stopped out, I keep feeling non-emotional putting trades on. Deep down I know that eventually I'll start getting them right.
7. I kept my stop losses small, so having a 0% win rate didn't get me killed.
Don't take your first trade on Monday and use the $100 to get an elite membership! I promise you won't regret it. There is so much content and so many people that will help you ( FYI- I hve zero interest in the site but I see you putting forth the effort). Guys were just commenting in The Scalpers Journey thread how far so many have come from being daily losers to consistently profitable traders who truly get it.
The market looks to be opening in value and in range. I have R marked starting at 2180.50 and S starting at 2177.50. I'm going to sit on my hands a bit off the open since we are opening within this chop zone. There's a lack of news today so the market might have a hard time moving out of range.
My plan for today:
1. I will be keeping an eye on the 84.50 area. I will look to fade anything that gets in this area unless it's a very strong reaction. If we break 86.0 and hold I will be very bullish. I will generally look to fade prices in this zone.
2. Overall the market looks bullish, so I would prefer buying dips today. My first support level is at 76.25 - 77.50 so I would like to see this area hold prices. If this area is unable to do so, I also like the next level down at 71.0 - 72.25; I would mark this as a major SR zone, so if we get to this area I would definitely look for a bounce and will be a fairly aggressive buyer.
My goal today is pretty much the same as it is every day. I did a TON of reading and research over the long weekend, looking back at all of my charts and I feel very confident going into this week.
End of Day Update/Thoughts
This is September - right? The month the market wakes up.
Choppy day today. I saw 2 good setups and got into 1. I scalped out for a tick but the plan would have been to hold for 1R, which the trade ended up doing for a +1.75 winner. Again, an error trade that cost me money.
The 2nd setup was later in the afternoon, a pretty good RSX bearish divergence at the midday high of 83.50. I paper traded this one, which lasted the rest of the day pretty much; a 1.5 hit on the 1st half and break even on the second. I was stalking this trade and was definitely considering entering it when I saw a tweet from FT71 about the market going to 86.0. That spooked me out of the trade. I really just need to focus on my chart and plan and stop listening to other stuff.
I did not achieve my goal. I did not meditate before the open, I was all out of sorts because of having Monday off. I was super busy at work, trying to do 2 days worth of work in 1 and trading the market - I was not focused like I should have been.
I did end the day up a tick, for what it's worth. I also was in a trade that was going my way; I could have used that as the test I have been wanting to see if I could hold it to my 1st profit target - actually that was the test I've been waiting for. I failed, plain and simple.
I put in a lot of technical work in over the weekend but not much mental work. Tonight will be a little technical work and a lot of mental work, then back at it tomorrow. The struggle continues.
It looks like we will open in value or perhaps slightly over; this would give the higher probability of a range bound day absent market changing news. There are a few news releases this morning, but none are generally market movers. Ester is speaking at 10:00, so I'll be cautious around this time.
I have an SR zone starting at 83.50 and it's possible we will open within this zone or just under it. Looking at the statistics of the ONH/ONL being taken out during RTH (95.7% chance), I not going to be super aggressive in shorting in this area off the open unless we take out 81.25 first.
My plan:
1. I'm going to sit and be patient off the open. If we dip first I will be looking at the 79.50 area for support and buy in this area. I would expect a bounce to the 83.50-85.0 area from here and will trade accordingly.
2. If we move up off the open I'll be cautious and will keep a close eye on the 88 - 89.50 area if we get that far. I don't expect a lot of follow through today so I'll generally look to fade a move higher, but won't do so quickly.
3. If we have a big move after 10:00 on news then I will be more cautious about fading the market; I will have to read my SR zones and look for good setups. I don't expect this to happen, but I do think I need to plan for it.
Goal today: I can't logically figure out why the hell I care so much about my P&L. The money in my trading account is extra and if I blow it up I can just re-fund it. I have a surplus of money each month from my job minus expenses so it's really no big deal. I can't figure out why I can't just let it go, except for the fact that most people have the same issue starting out.
So, today my goal is to not five a f*ck. Just trade the plan because it works and I've got the stats to prove it.
Mid Day Update
Pretty hard market for me to read today. I got a few bearish divergences this morning, one at 10:10 and another at 10:31. These were valid signals but I had support marked at 2185. The 10:10 divergence was a bit under this support level but also came after a huge volume spike. The 10:31 short possibility was not far above this support level that had been holding. I don't feel good about trading an area like this with mixed signals, I'd prefer to take something that's clear so I skipped these.
After the market pulled back I had a good entry on the long side at 11:51, we were bouncing off support I had marked at 79.50 and I got a bullish RSX divergence. I took the trade and it started working for me. At 12:05 we got a pretty big TICK and price spike and I really considered exiting at that point for a 5 tick gain. This was pretty far short of my 1st target however, and such an exit is not a part of my current plan. When I get to the point of trading several contracts, I would take partial profits on such an occurrence, but not at this point. So...I stuck with the trade. I did move my stop up to break even as per my plan and I stopped out at break even. So, I did pretty well on this trade.
The market at the moment is forming an ascending triangle. This is the same pattern that stopped me out of 2 trades last week; trying to short an ascending triangle. The market is starting to flat line here, maybe in anticipation of the beige book report at 14:00. I do know that I'm not keen to short into this pattern today; I'd rather buy a break and a pullback. We have had an above average range expansion so far so I would not be shocked if we have seen the LOD at this point. Here's the chart from my trade at 11:51:
End of Day Update
1 trade today (above) and 1 setup today. I am overall pleased with my 1 trade, and I'm more please with the trades I didn't make. I did have an order in to go long at 2179.50 but I didn't get filled. The market ran pretty quick from this area and there wasn't anything I could do.
I had a couple of possible entries early on this morning, as stated above, but they were sketchy based on support nearby. I avoided trying to short into the afternoon trend even though I was getting plenty of signals to do so. By the time a lot of my short signals were flashing it seemed that the market had put in a bottom for the day. The bottom wasn't too obvious on a 1-minute chart but a little more clear on a 5-minute chart; there's a nice hammer at 12:25. The only thing I didn't trust is the lack of relative volume that came with the bottom, 22K on a 5 minute candle.
Knowing a bottom is in (or at least thinking one is probably in) and making a trade based on that information are two different things. I did try to get long at 13:23 but I didn't get a fill. I could have been more aggressive and chased the price, but that's not something that I'm comfortable with. I'd rather set my price than getting in the habit of chasing something. While chasing the price would have worked this particular time, I don't think I would have a positive expectancy if I were to adopt this habit.
I mentioned here at 13:45 that I like the idea of waiting for price to break the ascending triangle pattern it was in and buying a pullback to that area. We actually got that break a few minutes after I posted but the break was pretty weak and got jammed up at the mid and VWAP and the 600 SMA. So, buying that first pullback seemed too risky as we were in between a tight area of support below and resistance above. There was a pullback to this zone at 14:37. I'm not sure that I saw this in real time. Looking back at it, it looks like a pretty nice trade.
The rest of the afternoon there were more opportunities to get short than there were to get long, at least from my setups. But...I knew that the short side was the wrong side unless we broke the uptrend/channel.
I did hit my goal today of trading my plan on a trade. I did get a chance to close it out at a small profit but stuck with it, right or wrong, as I have it written in my plan. Even though today it would have been better for me to scalp the trade for 4 or 5 ticks, I know that long term I'm better off holding it and sticking to my written plan. I don't feel bad that I made the choice I did; I'm not concerned about the 4 or 5 ticks I missed out on because I'm much better off having stuck with the trade and stuck with my plan. At some point in the future I might scale out based on the circumstances I saw when I was in the trade, but that's not what my plan is today - I'm not there yet. However, by sticking to my plan I will definitely get there in time.
I don't know about you, but does the market being range-bound or trending mean anything when you are taking 1-tick profit? Coming from a fellow trader, do not blame the market. It is just an excuse. Same with blaming anything for that matter.
Having to catch up on work? What does that have to do with you not taking your "winning" trade all the way to its target? Nothing.
I am not trying to be brash, but so many people get stuck in making excuses rather than fixing what they need to fix.
Flattening because some guy on the internet thought the market was going higher? If I tweet the opposite of every trade you take, will you always flatten? He has no more knowledge on the future than you, so don't take his words as cannon.
Read the book "Super Forecasters" before you give anyone's forecast merit. Take what they say into mind, but not with out being critical of why they say it.
I am only trying to help. If I sugar coat all of this, you would not get the point. So, try to understand why I am saying this.
You will not ever succeed if you blame the blueness of the sky for your losing trade.
You put a lot of work in your journal, now put it in to your trading.
Thanks for commenting. I'm definitely aware that my error trades come from me, not from the market. I would have thought the market would open up a bit, but even in the tight range, I had 2 valid trades that were profitable - if I'd only stuck to my plan.
The only person responsible for me trading my plan is me, and the only person responsible for me not trading my plan is me.
Thanks for following and reading and offering the comment; I definitely appreciate it. I'll check out the book you suggested as well. I'm still going to get an Elite membership, but I want to do so when I have the time to dedicate to reading through all of the information there over a weekend, so perhaps this weekend I will join. I've got so many things that need work, so many things that I have lined up to do that I've got to prioritize the list in my queue.
Looks like a normal D type distribution although I suppose an odd P can be seen as well with a very narrow value area. The bottom was tested and rejected in what looks like an inverted H&S pattern.
Looking at this right now including the last several weeks, we've got a pretty bullish look going on. I would not be surprised if we re-tested the all time highs pretty soon, maybe on Friday. If we open above value tomorrow I think we could see some nice moves. I'll put together my plan in the morning.
As I write this we're making new overnight/premarket lows on ES after the ECB announcement. When I woke up this morning and peeked at the market, we were between 86 and 87 and it looked like we might open above value and pHi. It seems now that there is little chance of that happening.
While this selloff isn't huge it is notable given the context of the market in this moment. Taking out the FOMC Jackson Hole meeting we've been averaging a RTH range of just over 10 points since 8/1. We've now moved about 6 points in the last 15 minutes in premarket - that's significant to me.
It's difficult to make a plan with 40 minutes until the open given the price action here. This type of price action seems to be driven by a fundamental market change and those moves are always more powerful. Of course, I would not be shocked if this drop is shrugged off and the market moves higher today anyway.
My plan:
1) If we open in value, I will again be cautious and look to fade extremes. Given the premarket movement that is being driven by the ECB announcement, I will not rush into fading anything without a grade A setup; price action confirmed by an SR zone confirmed by an RSX divergence. As the market settles I will adjust my approach.
2) If we open below value and below pLo I will lean bearish and look to short pops. If we open below value but above pLo I will be inclined to think that the pLo will be taken out and will look to short any pop into that area, but I won't be as bearish on the day as a whole. In this scenario I think we could hold lower before an afternoon rally, which has been the norm as of late.
I was listening to a podcast this morning featuring a person named "Rob" from Discovery Trader. He's been trading since the 80's. He was talking about managing risk and emotion and said, "being a trader in general...is about managing discomfort, and it never gets any easier. I've been doing this a long time and I'm never comfortable being in a trade, I'm never like 'oh, I've got this licked - I'm going to win this; I've got this. I'm always nervous, I'm always skeptical I'm always thinking I'm early or I'm late or I'm not making the right decision...it's just something you have to settle in with."
I've listened to this podcast a few times before and I love that bit. I'm very uncomfortable in trades and it's good to be reminded that it's not just me being odd - most good traders, professionals, are uncomfortable. It's learning to cope with this discomfort that determines success or failure, provided you have an edge.
My goal today is to manage my discomfort - as it always is. I aim to do this on at least 1 trade. I was successful with this yesterday, and I can feel and see that I'm making progress. I also understand that progress is not linear, that I will have setbacks and will need to learn from them. But today, no setbacks.
Afternoon Update
Made several trades today; all were break even. Yesterday the market was very difficult for me to read/trade. I reviewed my charts yesterday evening as I normally do and things were a bit more clear, but still there were no real areas of entry that I missed live. Today the market was even more difficult for me to read and trade. I did take the trades that were offered based on my plan, and for the most part I held them as long as my plan called for (I did bail a little early on 1, but the others I held). My last trade I took at 15:24, very close to my 15:30 cutoff. I held it while taking some heat and held it after it turned profitable. I was of course tempted to scalp a few ticks but I held the trade for my target area. I thought this one would have a good chance as the market was coming off an area where it was rallying and we've been having some nice afternoon rallies lately into the close. So, holding the trade was not only part of my plan but I thought also made good sense based on the context of the market at the time as well as the tendency to rally to close of late. I did move my stop to BE to protect my position, as my plan calls for. I eventually stopped out for break even on that trade as the market could not find buyers to lift it into the close; the 81-82 area proved too tough.
I'm pretty unsure what to do about tomorrow as I'm not sure how to use SR levels on a rolling contract at this point. I'm likely to sit on the sidelines tomorrow and let things wash out a bit. I'll still look to play price divergences that I see but will be cautious on those in case we area around an SR zone.
My goal for today was achieved. I was aggressive in getting into trades, but not to the point of chasing or being impatient. My P&L didn't reflect good trading today, and in hindsight I would have been better off scalping ticks on my trades rather than waiting for targets; even though my targets were very modest, 1.5 - 2.0 points. I do realize that there will be times when my trading plan is not in sync with market conditions. During those times, if I scratch my trades instead of getting them stopped out, I'm a little ahead. So while my P&L does not show good trading, my spreadsheet I use to track both the setups and my trades does, and that's the more important part. So today I'm feeling pretty good about how I traded even though my pockets are empty.
With the contract rollover I really don't feel 100% comfortable using the SR zones that I have; I think they're probably good but I don't have the confidence level that I had on the U contract just yet. I see the market has moved sharply lower overnight and this morning, and we will open below value and below pRange. Based on the size of the gap there is a > 95% chance we do not close the gap today (hitting pClose). Given that, I'll be looking to fade bounces today and looking at my bottom SR zone as the first level but will be very cautious. I don't believe I will be trading around the open unless there is something that really stands out. My expectation is that the market either rallies and fails or the market has made it's movement overnight and will be mostly flat today.
My plan:
1) I will look to fade any pops starting at 2160.25. I'm not very confident about this area so I'll approach trades here with caution; I'm not just going to place a limit order and let it ride. I like the 2163 area a lot better for a short spot.
2) If we happen to move lower early I would expect some chop with a possible short-lived move higher. I won't rule out a long trade in the late morning or early afternoon if I see it.
3) If we happen to rally hard off the open and hold levels higher I will be thinking that we could trade up into yesterdays value area. I think this would be more of a grind higher type of move. Given the economic news out of Europe, I think this is unlikely but I'll still pay attention to this possibility. If we're grinding up, I'll be hesitant to place a trade.
Overall the market seems to be moving on news, so the perception of value has changed. Over the last month or so, most of the movement has come premarket and overnight leaving the RTH to be dull. I'll keep this in mind as I watch the ticks today.
Mid Day Update
Not good so far. I've had a few trade opportunities that I have passed up, probably because I was scared of stopping out though I'm not 100% sure. I do know that my usual morning routine was not there today and replaced with total chaos prior to the open, so I didn't have a chance to stop, focus, meditate, etc. I'm not saying that's an excuse or anything as the trades were there but perhaps there's something to that. Rather than just rushing into the market at the open, I should have stopped for 5-10 minutes and gone through my usual routine and just missed part of the open. Next time.
I also took a trade that's not part of my written plan but that I'm pretty comfortable with at 10:42, just after the impulse move to a new low. I didn't see any indication of a bottom here so fading the small pop is usually pretty good, low risk. I got into the trade well, within 2 ticks of the top but didn't follow my time stop and bailed too soon. That error cost me 2 points (1R trade).
Overall today, including bailing too soon on the trade I was in, I'm down 5.75 today on errors (even though my P&L is flat). Not a great way to end the week really.
I'm leaving for a bit to have lunch with Ms. CK. Perhaps I'll be able to recharge and come back for the afternoon session with a bit more focus. Maybe she can bring me a spine as well, mine's gone missing today.
End of Day Update
Getting away from the screen for a bit was good, had a nice lunch and a walk around a botanical garden. I took a few trades in the afternoon, not the exact setups in my plan but good ones based on the day we're having - shorting lower highs when I saw momentum fading. Overall I was pleased with how my trading in the afternoon went; I got into entries well but did get really anxious getting out. I really, really need to work more on that part of my trading. I have the tools in front of me it's just I've not used them. I do feel a lot better about my entries this week as compared to weeks prior, and I'm getting into them more easily - at least in spurts. I'm pleased with the progress I've made this week; I don't expect to be past all of my bad habits in one week...I'm just looking for progress.
An example of one of the trades I took in the afternoon at 15:04, shorted a lower high once momentum was going away. I'll also note that I had A TON of bullish divergences with price and my RSX indicator, most of which would have stopped out for losses. I'm pleased that I'm not just trading my indicator with blinders on, I'm looking at the overall context of the market and using that as a tool, not a method in and of itself.
