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CK's ES Journal

  #161 (permalink)
 
Comeback King's Avatar
 Comeback King 
Tampa, FL/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradingView
Trading: NQ, ES
Posts: 269 since Aug 2016
Thanks Given: 191
Thanks Received: 382

5/3

The big day has arrived. There was a little economic news this morning which has not done anything. The ADP payrolls report was slightly above consensus so that could be a sign of things to come for Friday's NFP. The EIA oil report is at 10:30 so if I'm in a trade I might tighten my stop prior to that but it usually doesn't cause a ripple. I will cease trading by 13:45/50 and pause until at least 14:30.

The only thing that matters is my adherence to my plan. That's all I want to do is trade my plan without error.

12:04

Difficult up to now today. I've had a couple of spots that I wanted to trade but price ran away too fast on one and the other price got back to my limit order but I did not get a fill. So far today I've traded well, though the opportunities to test myself have admittedly been minimal. And even though the range today is only 4 ticks better than at this time yesterday, price is moving much better to me - at least in terms of what I like to see.

I have about 90 minutes left where I could potentially take a trade. If I don't see something by 13:30 I'm going to pause for at least an hour...I've got a few errands I can run to get me away.

End of Day

No trades for me today, nothing really came together. I did try for a couple of entries but no luck there...those things happen. On one I could have perhaps been a little more aggressive and chased price by a tick, and I sometimes do this but it's kind of see how things are going at the moment decision and I didn't want to chase, not even 1 tick, at that time. The trade would have gone on for a small profit but I'm good with my decision at that time based on the day I was seeing.

The FOMC reaction was pretty underwhelming and it looks as if the ES will continue to grind around in this trading range. I still don't feel totally "right" in terms of my mentality but that may be in part because I'm always feeling like I am on really loose ground on FOMC days, particularly after the 14:00 news release.

Tomorrow I will start fresh and just look to trade my plan. I did this today well enough but with no actual trades it's hard to say how I did.

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  #162 (permalink)
 
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 Comeback King 
Tampa, FL/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradingView
Trading: NQ, ES
Posts: 269 since Aug 2016
Thanks Given: 191
Thanks Received: 382

5/4

Extremely bullish overnight starting with the Asian session and continuing through the European session. There was some economic news at 8:30 that was slightly positive that didn't cause a reaction. At 8:46 there was the start of a large volume dump that looked like a news reaction but I don't see anything...not sure what that was all about.

Today will be interesting to see what develops. I could definitely see a scenario where the ES pushes higher this morning and into the afternoon only to reverse after 14:00. This push higher would likely be the grinding sort of movement that we have seen recently in this area.

I've had a less than desirable week up to today. Yesterday was okay but I would have liked to be able to get into a few trades to continue to work through my fear issues. I'm going to try my best to relax today and only focus on implementing my trading plan. I don't want Friday afternoon to come and me not being able to have an error-free day this week - that would suck. So I'm going to focus on that and do all that I can do keep control of myself so that when Friday afternoon comes I can have a nugget of joy to take into the weekend.

10:10

Not the open I was expecting but it's good. I did forget to note that Draghi is talking at 12:30 today so there might be some volatility during or after that. I've not had a trade to consider at this point but the price action has been refreshing.

End of Day

Got a little choppy here at the end of the day but wow, what a day! Unless we push higher here at the close it will be an 11.75 point range today but it feels like closer to 20. I love how well price was flowing for much of the day and hopefully that's a sign of some better things to come.

My trading today was not perfect. I suppose one of the best spots was to short the move back up to the 86's just before noon. I was wanting to get into that trade but price really ran on me before I got the confirmation I look for so no dice. I understand the consequences of waiting for confirmation but for me the benefits far outweigh the missed profitable trades. I don't get bothered about missing out on trades like this one because I have seen and continue to see many potential trades where waiting for confirmation keeps me on the right side of the market.

There was another nice opportunity off the low at 76. I got the confirmation I look for but the stop loss point was pretty big and I paused to think about whether or not I really wanted to take that much risk on. The moment I started thinking (in this case over-thinking) I was doomed. I waited and waited and let the trade pass, even though it's one that fit my plan perfectly and one where I had many opportunities to gain entry. I missed out on a profitable one there.

I did sell the 84's as price stalled there. I was aware of potential support from the morning move down to 81, so I let price take a couple of runs at breaking down past this area and when it did not I put my stop back to break even and ended up scratching the trade. I'm happy with this one as I executed just as I would have liked to.

That was it in terms of opportunity for today. There was a potential short versus 86's around 14:45 but again price ran on me and I was not chasing it. It was pretty clear that the ES was in a potential chop zone at this point and while I would have taken the short trade had price not run, I would not have been expecting much given the volume that had built up just below.

So for today the 1 good opportunity that I where I had a chance for entry I blew by overthinking and then letting my thoughts and fear get in the way of me executing my plan. I'm not pleased with that at all. I did respond well from the mistake and took a trade shortly after that fit my plan, and I executed well.

For the trade that I actually entered, I felt pretty calm and relaxed about that one. That was on the heels of the trade that I skipped that was profitable, so I was facing the scenario where I could have stopped out on the trade that I did take and would end up negative on the day P/L wise while I could have been positive P/L wise on my to plan trades. That would have been a good reason to be more anxious or nervous but I was calm and executed well there.

So I have tomorrow to try to put together an error-free day for the week. I know that if I can just focus on my process and acknowledge my fear but do a better job of rationalizing it and accepting it I will be able to start eliminating these errors.

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  #163 (permalink)
 
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 Comeback King 
Tampa, FL/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradingView
Trading: NQ, ES
Posts: 269 since Aug 2016
Thanks Given: 191
Thanks Received: 382


5/5

Great NFP numbers has sent the ES higher this morning. 91 and 95 have provided some resistance recently and we're testing 91 now; perhaps that will fall and we will see a test of 95 after the open (or maybe prior). No more important economic news today but there are a rash of Fed speakers starting at 11:30 and continuing on through 3:30 so I suppose that could provide a spike here and there.

I did some reviewing and reflecting last night on my trading so far this week. I have made errors nearly every day (3 out of 4) but they have all been different types. The error on Monday was a misplaced stop that cost me points when I could have made points. This isn't good of course but it's not the hesitation type stuff I mostly am fighting. I do know better than to make this type of error though. The error on Tuesday, which I do count as an error, wasn't as bad as I made it out to be at that time. I gave price an hour to do something and it didn't so I don't think it's unreasonable to just cut the trade at that point. Coming off the error on Monday made it worse in my mind then it really is. If I have a clean Monday I'm not bothered by bailing on the Tuesday trade. Then yesterday, I just locked up at the size of the required stop loss. The next opportunity I took and managed really well.

So in terms of the types of errors I've been struggling with and trying to eliminate, I've made 1 this week that I think will look bad no matter how long I wait to or how many times I look back at it (the one yesterday). My entry criteria is a lot more narrow than it was maybe a month ago. I've taken steps to keep myself out of chop as much as possible which has limited the number of entries I would take in a given day/week, etc. I need to be taking entries that fit my criteria and just go with them and not overthink or fret about a few ticks on a stop location. As is usual, my plan is way better than I am on my own. The fear that I have is misplaced in that I should be most afraid of not following my trading plan.

I do feel I'm taking small steps, even this week where I've had a number of errors. What I have done well this week is avoid trading outside of my plan and I've avoided taking trades that I should not be taking based on my plan. So in this sense I am staying disciplined even though I'm not getting as much action. This has been a real challenge this week - staying occupied. Work has been extremely slow. I could start micro managing my direct reports but that's counter productive for everyone. I am not just watching every tick in the ES because that's not what I should be doing either. I'm trapped in my office with not much to do. First world problems for sure, lol.

So I will try again today to execute with 100% efficiency. Whatever the case, I will have made progress this week. I've learned a bit and limited my trades in a good way. I'm finding that there is a really fine edge between success and failure. I mean, I am literally just 2 clicks away from having one hell of a week - just 2 clicks! Not that long ago I was hundreds of clicks away but now it's down to 2. I'll keep grinding until I get it down to 1 click away and then I'll grind some more until it's perfect execution.

Edit:

Just one more thought prior to the open. I used to listen to a ton of podcasts and watch every webinar that I could. One thing that came up a lot was how good trading was boring. I remember one that was an interview with a guy who transitioned from the pits who said that trading was 90% boredom and 10% pain (might have been 95/5). This week has been just that for me - lots of periods of dead time, skipping trades that I would taken in the past, etc. I keep that in mind often, that good trading is a ratio of boredom and pain. If it's too exciting then maybe you're doing it wrong...

13:10

Is the paint dry yet?

End of Day

Wow, what a terrible day for trading. 6 point range for most of the day and a ton of chop. Nice rally at the end of the day but I really had no where to enter on that one so I just watched it run. I was looking for a potential stall and reversal around 15:30 but it's just grinding higher here with 10 minutes left until the cash close.

I'm not thrilled with myself at this point, having made the errors that I made this week. I would have liked to have had the opportunity to put some trades on today but it just wasn't happening, there was just nothing for me to trade. This rally looks really nice now, and there's profit in it for sure but the ES just was not in a spot where I would have been able to buy before the rally. The best thing I can say about today (and this week) is that I didn't trade outside of my plan because I was bored. I didn't trade efficiently from the standpoint of taking trades I should have but I was efficient in skipping trades I should be skipping.

Right now it feels like another week past and another wasted week in terms of me getting actually walking down that path...all I'm doing is thinking about it and preparing to do it but I'm not actually doing it. I need to get up and get moving, and soon because time is the enemy and I'm not getting any of it back.

I'm going to do a little review this weekend, just looking at the spots where I made errors and try to not make them again next week. I'll be doing more review of my mental approach and how I can make my finger click the mouse button and the correct times.

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  #164 (permalink)
 
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 Comeback King 
Tampa, FL/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradingView
Trading: NQ, ES
Posts: 269 since Aug 2016
Thanks Given: 191
Thanks Received: 382

5/8

It's the start of a new week which means another opportunity for me to do the right thing. I don't have a great deal to do it work in terms of my schedule this week so I should be able to pay attention to my trading each day, all day. There is not much economic news this week, just some premarket data on Thursday and Friday and the 10:30 EIA oil report Wednesday at 10:30. There are Fed speakers all week but only a few during RTH.

I was really, really close last week to having a very good week. I want to take the next step this week beginning with today. I can't let myself down.

End of Day

I took a few trades in the morning, all long and none successful - just too early. I was in a long after the LOD at 89.75 but got out at break even; just following the plan. Price was really choppy after the open and generally a crap day to trade. I executed with 100% efficiency, so that's good. It does suck that the days where I'm really on it have been the days where the ES had been junk to trade.

My challenge will be to continue to do the right thing so that when the ES does get a bit better I'll be there to collect. While it does suck to have a losing day in terms of P/L, it's minor and I'm very happy I continued to execute well throughout the day, getting into good positions to trade and staying out of bad ones.

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  #165 (permalink)
 
Comeback King's Avatar
 Comeback King 
Tampa, FL/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradingView
Trading: NQ, ES
Posts: 269 since Aug 2016
Thanks Given: 191
Thanks Received: 382

5/9

Nothing happening overnight and no economic news today although there are several Fed speakers including one at 13:00. My expectation for today is another dog day with a tight range and chop. Based on yesterday I have a lot of SR areas that are very close together so that makes it increasingly difficult to trade as there are times that I might want to go long based on a bounce off of a support area but price is already very close to or at a resistance area, the the RR is bad. This is fine as it keeps me out of situations where I have no advantage but the tight conditions make it very difficult to read and tax my decision making as I'm making many evaluations and decisions during the course of the day.

It's amazing how little volatility is present in the ES at the moment. Yesterday afternoon looked a lot more like an overnight period than one during RTH. I will continue to trade my plan today (or at least try to) and not overthink things. At some point price could run a little, which is what I look for. We did not really get any of these yesterday, and while that does not mean that we definitely will today, I do know that at some point price will move more than 3 points at a time and I know that I need to be trading to be able to potentially capitalize on this movement when it does occur. Unfortunately this is not something that I can predict. If I could predict it, I would not be doing a journal, I'd be laughing at how poor George Soros is

9:55

Not much to be excited about here off the open. I go back and forth on the usefulness of watching the NYSE TICK. I have it as an overlay on my ES chart and I can hide it and unhide it with a click. Yesterday there was that 1 point where TICK dropped below -1,000 after being compressed all day; that was telling as that ended up being the bottom. Lots of days the TICK will drop to and below that level and it means nothing...it's all about context.

I'll be keeping an eye on this today if price moves far and fast relative to the context of the day. So far we've got continued TICK compression which supports the price compression we also have.

End of Day

Pretty good day execution wise...not perfect like yesterday but a day I can live with and not be upset. Results wise it was another negative day but close to being positive. I had a short that stopped out on the tick that then went on to +3 or +4 depending on the exit. The stop was placed where it should have been; it's just one of those things. This is not something that occurs frequently so I don't feel the need to adjust.

The ES has not really been in sync with what I'm trying to do the last couple of days. It's good to see a small amount of volatility return in the afternoon; good to know the ES is still breathing.

While I had my 2nd consecutive negative day P/L wise I'm not really all that bothered as I type this. Today was literally 1 tick away from being positive to the point where I'd have made up the negative day yesterday and be in the black for the week and I know that if I can just continue to follow the plan and enter and exit the trades when I should the rest will take care of itself over time.

Perhaps tomorrow I will continue to execute and the ES will pay out more than it has the first two days of the week.

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  #166 (permalink)
 
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 Comeback King 
Tampa, FL/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradingView
Trading: NQ, ES
Posts: 269 since Aug 2016
Thanks Given: 191
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5/10

I'm going to be getting into the office a bit later this morning but probably before the open so I did my morning prep early. It's really tight in terms of SR spots so it could be another tricky day.

So far this week the trades have not been working out well. My hit rate is astonishingly low compared to what's normal, yet I'm not down that much. I hope to be able to continue to trade effectively and stick to my plan and just go with it. Chances are I'll catch a runner at some point and either get back to near break even for the week or maybe get back in the black.

End of Day

Wrapping up early today...a little frustrating today and this whole week. I again traded okay today...I did skip a long of the 89.25 low but looking back at it and using my plan I should have bought it there. It's just a missed read on that one; I would have bought there had I thought that it fit into my plan. I have gotten a little bit out of the habit of going through step by step and I just missed it really. Of course, and here again, that was the profitable trade today. I do wonder a lot how it actually is that the ones I miss are the profitable ones - just about every time. It's uncanny and it's frustrating just thinking about the wasted opportunity.

I did short versus the 96.50 high just after 13:00. I sat in the trade of 90 minutes then exited at break even; 90 minutes is long enough to give something to move. Of course, this will definitely crash into the close, just because I exited. Had I stayed in I surely would have been stopped out.

I'm being pretty negative and that's probably because I just can't get into a profitable trade this week for anything. I skipped one today, I skipped a few last week - that's the story of my trading life. Skip the profitable ones, take the ones that stop out.

I did come to the point today where I just don't care at all what happens to the trade. I was frustrated that my short wasn't moving after a hour and a half and I had to exit at break even. But I have no expectation of my trades moving into profit at this point, just because it's been so long now since I've had one that's done that. But that said, I still was able to get into a valid trade (that I saw) with no hesitation, and sit there while it did jack for 90 minutes. I suppose that's good. I'm just going to try to keep sticking to my plan and hopefully something good will eventually happen but I'm not expecting it to.

It's weird, the more I look back the more I see all of these great trades but the more I implement that plan in real time the more nothing good happens. Unless the ES breaks above 96.50 into the close the 7 day ATR in the ES is under 10 points. I know that's shit trading conditions for me. In the last 7 days my "to plan" trades +2.0 while my personal performance is much worse. I have manually back tested times where there is a lull in the ES and price gets tight and my results are not great - kind of like now. It's easier to work through 2 or 3 weeks of that in back testing since it might take a few hours or whatever. Going through this crap in real time sucks for a lot longer than that.

I guess if I can get through this period I'll have hardened myself somewhat for when better times (market conditions) return. I'll keep doing as best I can to just trade the plan, but damn, this is really getting old.

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  #167 (permalink)
 
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 Comeback King 
Tampa, FL/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradingView
Trading: NQ, ES
Posts: 269 since Aug 2016
Thanks Given: 191
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5/11

I had a bunch of work stuff to do when I got to the office this morning...last minute stuff with a tight deadline. I have been watching the open on the ES; it would have been nice to be able to short the open but I had no reason to do so. I'm happy that there's some good price movement finally, today could be interesting. I do need to leave by 15:00 today to pick up my daughter from school so I'll miss out on the close. I'm going to try to just take the trades that are presented and not think too much about the P/L part. I've done pretty well with this so far this week. I've made some mistakes but at least a few have been technical and not fear based.

13:20

It's like I have the reverse Midas touch this week or something, I swear. Everything I do today ends up wrong, I'm following my plan and I just keep losing money, over and over and over again. I have the expectation at this point that whatever I do is just going to suck.

I can't continue doing this. I back test and live test and sim trade and all is well. As soon I trade money, following exactly what I was doing before - bam, I start losing money.

I've got to take a break, this just isn't going to work for me. I can't believe how much effort I put into this, how much mental anguish and I end up getting this and feeling like this. What a waste...

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  #168 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
Posts: 654 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 545
Thanks Received: 360

It’s been almost 1.5 years are u still trading, trading ES just curious


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  #169 (permalink)
 
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 Comeback King 
Tampa, FL/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradingView
Trading: NQ, ES
Posts: 269 since Aug 2016
Thanks Given: 191
Thanks Received: 382

Yep, I'm still plugging along. I've put ES aside. I've taken steps back and gone through a some various trading courses (2nd Skies Forex and Adam H. Grimes). I restarted very regular meditation. I tried to do a reset of sorts.

I'm still trading equity indexes, primarily focusing on NQ, secondarily RTY. I watch YM but not actively. I am currently working with CL also, just trying to find/refine a trading edge.

I believe based on backtesting and simulated trading that I have an edge with NQ/RTY. I am trading these with a mean reversion strategy. I will also take with trend trades under specific circumstances but these make up ~10% of the overall trades.

I started a Topstep 50K combine this week. I do have my own capital to trade but with my up's and down's I'm still hesitant to trade my money. I have no issue trading my plan on sim but I've not been keen to trade live. I figured a combine would be good. If I can't pass the combine perhaps I should not be trading my own capital.

I've thought about restarted this journal a few times but I've held off. I do keep a journal in Excel. I might get this one going again at some point, I'm not sure it actually was a good thing before. I ended up being too focused on each trade, each day. My focus really should be over a series of trades.

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  #170 (permalink)
 jokertrader 
NYC, NY
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, TT
Broker: N/A
Trading: Spread Researcher and crypto degen
Posts: 654 since May 2013
Thanks Given: 545
Thanks Received: 360


Thanks for the note. Wondering if are trading part time or full time. Btw with CL and energies in general the lower risk way would be looking at spreads


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