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2369.75
2367.0 (no zone, just a spot to watch)
2357.50
2349.50
Premarket
It's funny how things change. It wasn't that long ago that Trump was being inaugurated and the indices were plunging, if only while he was speaking. No such thing now. I also find it amusing that the talking heads all tell me that everyone's basically going to wake up poor tomorrow - first Brexit was going to ruin all economies and then Trump. I suppose that shows that on a macro level that such things matter very little. I guess it gives speculators something to have fun with and a reason to juice volatility but nothing more. Or I could be completely wrong, lol. In the end I'm nothing more than a spectator watching from the stands with no team to cheer for anyway, I just want to see a good game.
ES is ripping. It seems like yesterday that 2200 was a big deal and here we are knocking on 2400. I suppose 2500 is not out of the question in the near term. I can't help but see a big bubble that's going to pop at some point. I stay away from Zero Hedge because they tell me it will be today. One day they'll be the blind squirrel who finally found their nut, meanwhile all of the people who kept fading this rally will be broke.
I suppose I'll look for a pull back to buy at some point. I might short a double top or 1-2-3 top if it looks weak but I would need a lot of supporting evidence in this case. Lately on these kinds of days there's no real pull back to buy, just a pause and I have trouble buying those just based on getting a good RR to a target of which I cannot see. There is an argument to be made to just buy something, set a wide stop and watch it run but that's not in my game plan. So I'll do analysis and such and if there's a situation to trade I'll trade it.
I don't have a great deal on my work calendar today so I might pull up some old ES contracts and walk through those post market review style just to get some practice in while keeping an eye on today's action which could be slow for me.
12:30
A trade! I missed!! I was looking for a pullback to buy and I got one this morning. Unfortunately I got a little tick greedy...what's 1 extra tick, is that so much to ask for? The answer from Mr. Market was "YES". Price did drop to my greedy entry at 87.75 but there was no fill, so I missed the trade over a tick when my "signal" entry was at 88.0.
So I have been managing the trade because even though I missed it for real I am counting it as a valid trade in my plan and I measure my plan versus reality as a measure of my performance. This one I had planned to let run a bit and just trail a stop and that worked. I would not always be doing this but given the context of the day and no real upper target to shoot for this seemed the logical/best option.
At this point, I just moved my pretend stop up to 96.0 for a minimum pretend profit on the trade of +8.0 (updated since I made the picture). I'm not too cranky about this; I'm more happy that I recognized the location and tried for an entry. The execution error I will fix eventually, after enough lessons.
12:40
Exit ended up being 96.0 for +8.0.
14:15
Just the 1 good trade today, and that's plenty. It was my error that I missed the entry...I really should know better. I'm glad I identified it at least, so it's half good I suppose.
I'll do some review tonight, etc but today was pretty straightforward.
Not too much on my calendar for tomorrow so I should be able to trade all day. I'll be off on Friday so tomorrow's it for me for the week.
2398.75
2372.50
2367.0 (no zone, just a spot)
2357.50
Premarket
Down turning to sideways overnight and premarket. Lots of room to the upper and lower SR zones, particularly lower. Bias is currently bull.
10:20
It a good read on the opening movement on ES and shorted 89.75 looking for 86.75. I missed the initial entry via stop order because I was too slow; I'm really out of the groove. I did get in late on a limit order back to that area. I really need to get better at getting those stop entry orders in because there are absolutely times when price does not return to the scene of the crime, like yesterday for example. Often these are the real big movers, so if I continue this I am potentially setting myself up to miss out on the biggest winners.
At any rate, I did get filled. The combination of the hammer candle followed by the bullish white candle spooked me. My plan is to wait for 5 candles before moving my stop to break even unless the trade is clearly wrong. While it did look a little sketchy at this point, it's not clearly wrong. However, my emotions got the better of me and I put in a limit order to fill at my entry for break even. Premature ejection here.
The trade has missed my initial target of 86.75 by 1 tick, so if managed properly I'd still be in the trade with the stop now at my entry for break even. It might well turn out that this trade gets me stopped at my entry anyway, rather than moving down again to fill my target for a +3.0 profit. However, even if it would stop out at break even the much more important aspect is that it would have been managed according to my plan. P/L is not as important at this point as me executing my plan like a cold blooded assassin.
Edit: This got stopped out for a break even scratch as I was typing...so the net P/L result is the same but I have another execution error to deal with at the same time.
End of Day
Crazy day, was busier at work than I thought. Made some bad decisions along the way and took some paper cuts. Tomorrow will be a good day to step away from the market as this week has been hot and cold (the last 2 or 3 weeks actually). A day off will be good.
I'll do review and homework over the weekend. I'd like to conduct a more thorough review/back test of older data using my methodology, taking much more time and treating it like a regular trading day - marking my charts, and all of the fluff.
Getting to work late today, had to run my daughter to the orthodontist this morning before school. I'll take a bit to get settled then start watching ES.
End of Day
I missed a good short opportunity right at the bottom of an SR zone this morning, just after 10:00. I also had an area of SR right at 67.0 but I did not take a long when price bounced off this area - I just didn't find anything and I didn't trust the area to hold to the tick. I would have been more interested if price tested, dipped below, then reacted up.
I tried a long just now based off a bounce around 74.0. I was looking for price to move to a new HOD and keep running to my next SR area higher, between 78 and 79. It may well do this but I scratched at break even when price did make a new high, stalled then pulled back to my entry.
I feel very out of sorts with the market and have felt this way for a few weeks. My trading has sucked for the last 3 weeks or so. There was a short period where I felt really comfortable with my read and things but now it's just not there. I am again seeing things late or seeing things that are not there. It's been 2 weeks since I've had a good profitable trade. I don't know if the market is acting differently or if I am but something isn't clicking.
As I sit and watch this trade that I was in hitting my target area, realizing that I scratched according to my plan, I really feel like had I left the trade on once it got back to my entry that price would have run through me and stopped me out for a loss. It's as if I cannot win no matter what I do lately. I've also been challenged with actually being here trading during that time as well. I keep having to come in late and leave early and every time I start to get going I have to take part of the day off for whatever reason...it's been very stop-start lately. It's one thing to go over action in review and quite another to do it real time. However, when I do review nothing makes much sense anyway.
I'll grind through it of course, but it's getting very frustrating putting in the time and effort that I am and feeling that I'm making no progress.
Pretty narrow overnight range, price is weak heading into the open. Price is right in the middle of SR zones for me which could set up good trades in either direction off the open.
I've been in a real slump lately. I've been paying attention to what I believe I should in terms of analysis first but it's just not clicking. I'll continue to keep my focus there today and just see what happens...hopefully things start to turn around soon.
End of Day
2 trades, my best one was a break even. Still getting punched in the gut. I considered a long entry off SR early but I hesitated and the entry passed me by. I also considered shorting that same move at the upper SR level but again, I fiddled around and missed it - partly for that and partly because I was having some difficultly working out a good target thus an acceptable RR based on where the stop would need to be. This along with the range at that point left me sitting out on a possible profitable move.
Lately I'm taking all of the crappy trades and passing all of the good ones. I just keep doing the same bad things over and over and over again.
While there was plenty of opportunity to end up with a small profit on the day, I again end up with a small loss. I won't die because of a blow up, but I'll bleed to death with all of these paper cuts.
Slightly bearish in the Asian session overnight recovering into the European session and we're now right back around yesterday's close. It's too bad I don't trade options (or maybe it's actually good) because I'd be scaling into SPY calls at this point; it really seems the ES is just winding up for another move higher at this point.
Today I will again try to focus on analysis and let the trades come to me. I don't know why it's been so difficult lately when I had so much clarity in January and the first of February. I considered taking some time off but I've got a long vacation coming up after next week so I'll just keep pushing until that time.
14:30
Finally got a good one. Maybe a few ticks too late on the entry and perhaps a few ticks too early on the exit but of course pleased that I actually took the trade and that I saw it. There were a few possible trades earlier today particularly up around my SR area of 73.50 but I didn't take those.
End of Day
For the first day in what seems like forever I'm not totally grumpy at 16:00. Tonight I will do some review and watch Borussia Dortmund hopefully beat Benfica in their 2nd leg Champions League match. Napoli really let me down yesterday.
Anyway, I was very passive today. I've had such a rough time of it lately that I'm not being aggressive at all. There is a trade that is perplexing me. After I shorted the move down for +4.0 I was considering buying near the low since my SR area was holding up. I had an RR of over 1 so I could have taken this trade and according to my book (plan) I should have. However I didn't like the idea of trading against the overall strength of the ES at that time which was with the bears IMO. So I decided to skip that long trade and look for a deep pullback to sell.
I had opportunities to sell in the 66.50 - 67.0 region. There's evidence of a stall that's good enough for me to take an entry. My issue here was a logical target. Selling here would mean selling just above an area that I'd marked as support. While the upper part of this zone has been traded through, overall the zone has held based on my view or definition. Based on an entry at 66.50 I'd need the trade to hit 64.25 for 1R. While the prior swing low is at 63.75, and targeting this would provide 1.2R it just seemed like a bad idea to be selling so close to a level of support.
In the end of course I could have picked up another 4+ points had I sold here. But I still don't know if it would have been a good idea. Just because it would have worked this time doesn't mean that the next 20 times I won't end up on the wrong side.
I suppose the big question I need to be asking myself is how much should I be concerned about this SR level given the number of touches it's had. Should I be basing my target on a break to new lows and expect some extension below that point based on how bearish price action has been since 14:00. The range for the day at the time I was considering this short was only 9.25 points, so it's not out of the question to get some additional extension. Given recent ranges and the extension of the initial move from ~71 the ES did have more room to move down just based on what's been happening.
I don't know that there's ever going to be THE right answer. I also know it's easy to know the answer now, after things have played out. I do need to think and decide for myself how all of these different factors play into my decision to sell or not sell at this kind of a point, with price action clearly bearish, some SR close by to provide possible support and with their being some additional room to move lower based on how I'm seeing range and price extensions. Anyway, much to ponder and review tonight. At least I'll be able to do so knowing I had a + day.
2378.0
2376.75
2371.75
Big gap here; I just can't find a good SR zone in this area.
2359.50
2349.50
2335.75
Premarket
Sideways through the Asian session turning bearish off the European open. Jobless claims were slightly worse than consensus but had no impact. So far price has respected the bottom of my SR zone at 59.50 and is lifting off this area once again as I'm typing this (8:43).
I have a large gap between my SR zones here (59.50 to 71.75) and a large gap below 49.50. I've looked at possible SR in this area to place another marker in the 60's somewhere but nothing makes sense. The most telling perhaps is a composite look at the volume at price; it's extremely thick between 60-70.
I'm in much better spirits this morning after my good trade yesterday, and the absence of losing trades yesterday. I'm really still trying to find a good balance between trading like a madman and taking every little potential entry that comes along and being extremely conservative. Neither extreme really suits me all of the time and different market types really call for me to be more aggressive at times and more passive during other times. Identifying when is of course the rub. I suppose that will take many more years.
Doing some thinking last night, part of my recent frustration I believe was born out of a lack of patience. I'd felt that I was learning and developing rapidly a few months ago; I was feeling really comfortable with what I was doing and I could see weekly development. Then, it suddenly slowed to the point that it seemed like it had stopped or was maybe going backwards. I am so anxious to make "the turn" and am applying great time and effort into many areas of study and review and I felt that it was close. All of a sudden, that line starting moving away from me again and the frustration came.
So I suppose I just need to be more patient and realize (as much as it sucks to include in my reality) that I may never make "the turn". I may continue to toil and apply effort for another 30 years and never really get it or make it. This isn't like law school where you can just work your way to an end. This is more like being a professional athlete, sometimes you can work as hard as you want but you just don't have the chops to cut it at that level. Perhaps I need to keep this in mind more often and not let some short term success cloud that bit of reality. It's quite shitty actually to have that hanging over you but it's the truth and only fools run from the truth.
Anyway, today is the same as other days. Understand what's happening and understand who is in control, who is strong. Where is there likely to be supply and demand, what is likely to happen at various price levels, where do I expect price to go and why, what should I be seeing at these various price levels to confirm my premise? Only when I understand this puzzle should I be considering making an entry. If I miss an entry because I don't understand what is happening, then so be it. Better to miss a good one then to take a bad one.
13:00
Nice opening range (first 40 minutes for me) but nothing since then. I took a long trade just after 10:30 and was stopped out for -2.0 almost as quickly as I entered the trade. At that time I was looking at that area (66.50) as a spot where the ES would hold and buyers would come in. This is a trade that is a part of my plan, nice push off the open with a few legs higher then a pullback to a spot where there should be some demand. I may have been a little early in hindsight but that's easy to see now. At the time I think it was a legitimate trade based on my plan.
I'm not too surprised that price has been stuck in mud here. As I mentioned in my premarket, just knowing the volume of contracts that have traded between ~ 60 and 70 would suggest that we need either some sort of event that would shift perception of value or one side to become very aggressive and push price out of this area. With a news event, I suppose we could move out of the area with relative ease - meaning with a lack of volume of contracts traded. Without some sort of news though, I guess there would need to be some larger volume from one side or the other. Today, there's certainly not the volume that would push price off this spot.
With this in mind (assuming I am somewhat correct), looking at the volume during the first hour; I can see that it's lower than the last several days. If the volume during the first hour is lower than the last several days, does that suggest that we will be moving through the 60-70 area quickly or slowly? I'd say slowly; to move quickly we need heavy volume or news. Slow movement is also choppy with a lot of back and fill.
So...in regard to my decision to trade (I had not looked at the 1st hour volume or worked out all of the previous considerations at that point), win or lose, should I really be trading in such conditions away from my SR boundaries? Probably not. Does that make my trade an error? Not necessarily from the standpoint that it's based on my plan. Should I be looking deeper into the overall context of the market before I even think about trading? Maybe. Or maybe all of that stuff I typed about a news event or heavy volume being needed is rubbish and I'm looking at it all wrong. Such is the way of an aspiring futures trader I suppose.
14:10
We got the volume to move out of the trading range. Maybe there was an opportunity to short around 64.50 or so with an expectation of a new LOD, so a target of 60.50. I must say that I wasn't paying close attention at that time to see the move coming. Had I been paying attention, that would have been a trade based on my plan I suppose but again, kind of hard to take a trade there even had I actually been watching and been able to see the action unfold there.
At this point I have no spot to go long from, price would need to fall a bit further for that, down to 50.50 for the top end of my next SR area. I also am hesitant to short a pullback to 59.50 as the ES has put in a good range at this point and has moved pretty far in a short amount of time...too far too soon. That basically leaves me just watching and not acting. That sucks and I wish I were taking advantage of this movement but I feel like I'm damned if I buy and damned if I sell so sitting still makes the most sense for me based on my skill level.
End of Day
I feel that I missed some good trading later in the day. I'm not so grumpy but I need to have a rethink about what and why I am entering the market and what it is that I'm really looking for. My SR zones are extremely wide so I may need to revisit how I am coming up with those areas and structuring the market for myself. I'm playing too much in between zones because often my zones are very far apart. Today price seemed to avoid the 1 SR zone that was in play in the morning but run through it in the afternoon.
NFP numbers beat expectation and the ES has reacted positively but it isn't a runaway reaction. The overnight sessions have been overwhelmingly positive. While the market has been in a bull flag since 3/2 we look to gap up and outside of that area. I believe I mentioned scaling into SPY calls a few days ago, if only...
While NFP was good, I would not be surprised if the net market participants decide it's too good, meaning the probability of a rate hike is now increased. This could certainly cap the bullishness of an otherwise good number. I'll be keen to watch both sides today and not get locked into just buying or buying the first pullback with the idea of holding for much of the day. I suppose it's possible that we could get one of those all day rallies but I don't think that's the most likely scenario.
In any event, I'm not here to predict, just read the price action against my market structure and hopefully place trades that fit into my plan. My focus will be first on analysis and then on finding good locations for entry. I've certainly had an up and down time lately and that's caused me to pause and reflect a bit on what it is I am doing and what it is I am trying to do (or should be doing). Knowing that I'm still finding myself as a trader and trying to figure out what I need to be in order to fit my personality into the markets I should not be surprised by these moments. I'll continue to stick to price analysis and let the trading develop as much as I can.
10:25
Gap n' Nap or maybe Pop n' Chop would be better. The ES feels heavy to me and I tried shorting the initial move back up off the opening move down (shorted 72.50) but I scratched it as price kept bouncing back. I'll keep an eye on things but I feel I may have missed what will be a nice move down (or got shaken out).
11:10
Yea, I definitely bailed too soon on my short at 72.50. I'd have been out by now but I would have also been up over 5 points. That's a topic for review however and I can't allow myself to fuss about it for the rest of the day.
Price has dropped a long way without much of a reversal so my thought is that we could be near a state of exhaustion or at least a pause. That would be on a normal day which this is not. Given the NFP it could be argued that the perception of value has shifted in a fundamental way with traders thinking a rate hike is now a certainty rather than a probability. While the probability of a hike may have been priced into the market the good NFP number will have increased that and may be pushing price down.
Anyway, I missed a good move but there will probably be at least a few more to consider in the coming hours. I'm back to focusing on analysis and putting the one that got away behind me (hopefully).
13:00
Another missed move due to I suppose lack of patience with price. I was short 67.0 as price continually kept trying to move up past this area of resistance from the morning low of 67.75 and it could not. My target price was an extension beyond the current LOD at 63.25. I was in the trade and bailed after it pushed down and was bought back up to my entry level. Normally over lunch time price is less likely to make a directional move so perhaps I should apply more patience if I'm entering the market during this time.
I'm happy that I've been getting into good spots to trade but my management of the trade isn't in sync with the price action so far today. I'm sure there's more to come...still many hours to go.
14:00
Shorted 2362.0 at 13:26 for a possible move to new lows. Price was stalling out in what I perceived as an area of resistance where sellers should be. I felt that this was a higher risk area to short given how far price had already moved. When price made a push lower, getting only to 60.50 before being bought, I moved my stop to break even, which of course triggered for a scratch trade. It now looks like the low might be in. I'll be keen to see what the next move lower does and how it looks; there might be a good buying opportunity.
End of Day
It's been a day of missed opportunities and at the same time I think I made some progress. I got into trades at good locations. I missed a couple of potential entries but I certainly was in enough of the right trades that ended up panning out. The issue was the management of the trade. Because I'm messing around with SR levels and time frames a bit I'll give myself a slight break here. I had been waiting 25 minutes or so before I started to reassess things and see if I really wanted to still be in the trade. Today it was lightning fast, more like 2.5 minutes. I need to move the decimal back over...I really do. Or I could just pick an entry, pick a stop, pick a target and YOLO it. I don't know for sure but I do know that I need to be giving the trade longer to work. I need to be less fearful of being wrong. This is a confidence thing and that's been in short supply lately. I got a bit back today, even though my P&L didn't see an improvement.
This has really been a very strange week. I've fought off the temptations to go signal and indicator hunting. I've also recognized that I'm not settled and am easily rattled. I am not going to flush the progress I've made so far though, I'm off to a really good 2017 as compared to my 2016. I have a lot of things to mull over this weekend. I'll do some review and that, and I'll work on developing some concrete things to lean on in terms of do's and don'ts for my trading plan. I need to rework this a little. I probably also need to simplify and just stick to looking for A or B and not the entire alphabet in terms of entry criteria. Or maybe I need to do the opposite. I guess that's for pondering.
The thing I do feel better about is my reading the price action within my market structure. I did that really well today, and I felt more comfortable more often this week as a whole. If I can control myself and my fear mostly (not control so much as re-purpose and re-frame) then I'll take another step. I know that I'll never get over the fear thing, I'll always be shitting bricks because I'm pretty risk averse except for when I'm at the craps table, and even then I have a hard limit. If I had the ability to place a bracket order I'd consider just setting the thing and then going for a long walk, but I can't do an OCO. I do have a platform available where I could...so I might consider that later. That also kind of seems like wimping out though. I'd like to think that I can be able to learn to swim in my fear and just deal with it.
Next week will be my last week trading for a bit as we're taking the spring vacation; I'll be away from the screens for 8 trading days. 9 days and I'll be in Vegas, maybe shooting some craps will loosen me up a bit :-)
Pretty flat overnight but we've made a little range here in the last 90 minutes with the ES moving up. Mario Draghi is speaking at 9:30 this morning in Frankfurt so that could have some impact on the ES. It's a new heavy week with the FOMC beginning tomorrow and the rate announcement coming Wednesday. There are a host of economic numbers on Thursday and Friday as well (all premarket) and quad witching is Friday.
I read an interesting article last night about journaling in 3rd person and talking to yourself in 3rd person to remove emotion and provide clarity in high stress or anxious situations. I'm going to put this into practice in my offline journal, much of which I copy here. It's a little odd at this point for me to go 3rd person on the Internet, so I'll keep that part offline. I am practicing 3rd person self talk and coaching during the trading day though.
Focus will continue to be on reading price action and strength and weakness, trade entries will be secondary to this. Fed weeks can be interesting, sometimes flat and sometimes with good directional movement so it's pointless to try to predict what may come in the next few days.
10:05
There is NO volume this morning. It looks like about 80% of the volume is on the M contract but even taking the H contract volume into consideration, there's NO volume. The lack of volume will certainly make for some slow moving action until the volume comes.
11:15
Super choppy. The short side has been attractive since the failure at 70.0 just after 10:00 but the lack of volume is creating chop and that's not a place to be trading. A break lower is more likely though.
End of Day
Not a great trading day but acceptable. There were opportunities to short around 69-70 a few times today that I didn't take advantage of. There is no good reason for this as there was enough evidence to suggest selling these areas was a good probability trade based on price action. There was certainly opportunity for profit today, even in the consolidated range that the ES produced.
The good news was that I did read the price action pretty well today and saw weakness where the was weakness. I can feel good about this while realizing that I was not able to profit from these reads, so there's also something to work on. There was an opportunity on the long side today that I've seen in review around 67.50 or so (just after 13:30). I did notice this in real time (sort of) but I did not consider entering the market there. There was evidence that the ES had bottomed out but I did not have confidence that my read was good.
I can feel that what was holding me back today was uncertainty. Part of that I can accept as I'm looking at things a little different than I was in terms of SR zones and that. But there's also a part where I'm just not comfortable with the level of uncertainty that I would need to be able to deal with. In order to profit today, or any day really, I need to be a bit more of a gambler IF and WHEN I see evidence of a possible edge. The issue is either I don't like the uncertainty or I don't fully trust myself or maybe a little bit of both. It's not severe and I'm making very good notes to review. The more I see the more I'll trust myself and perhaps the more I'll be that little bit more comfortable with the uncertainty. I feel like I'm on this sort of scale, my ability to execute quickly and decisively on one side and the things preventing me on the other side. I just need to get the issues moved off to the point where the scale tips in my favor more than it is now. I'm not all that far away. Thinking a bit more, I don't know that a lot of it is uncertainty actually - I've come to grips with that bit of reality and have accepted it. I've been able to execute well at times, just not all of the time. I believe this points more toward confidence, which I should build with more real time practice as well as review...just more quality screen time.
Today was a day I could have suffered many paper cuts but I am not in need of Band Aids at the end of the day. I've learned some things as well, so I'll take today as a day where I received some "free" education.
I'll do some additional review tonight and be ready to go tomorrow.
The ES was not doing much overnight until the European session which was bearish. Price has moved down over a few legs but stopped at 62.0. PPI slightly beat expectations but there was no immediate reaction. I had a good review session last night and I'm going to do some review before the open which is usually helpful. I'm feeling good about what I am seeing.
It certainly feels like I'm in a period where I'm at least seeing things well if not executing well. It was a rough patch there for several weeks but I realize that I will go through those and those are where growth and development will occur. I'm going to do my best to stick with my process of analysis first and trading second. Even though it's disappointing at times to see a trade I was stalking go on to work out with me in it because I hesitated I know that if I trade first and analyze second it will be a train wreck. I don't HAVE TO trade, this isn't my livelihood and I'm not under pressure to put food on the table through trading. I believe that if I stick with my process that the analysis first approach will lead to me developing more and more confidence and I'll gradually be more comfortable entering the market. Doing this I will not lose sight of the issue of hesitation and will still do things to improve that area.
I know that there will be several opportunities for profit today. I'll do what I can to put myself in the position to take advantage of those situations.
10:15
Took a long just off the open at 63.25 and scratched it at break even. P/L wise it was a good move to push my stop up to break even but I did so too soon. Same outcome if I'd delayed the move but it's not so much about the outcome as it is about the process.
Even though the ES is moving things seem pretty tight. I've been keen to do something and I've been attentive but so far I have not found another good area for entry. The move down is grinding and I have questions about it sticking. I don't feel good about selling unless we get a pullback to a good spot but there's also no bullish strength appearing so no real reason to buy.
So I'll watch and conduct analysis and see what happens.
11:20
Took a long at 56.0, seemed like a good spot for a potential bottom - if not for the day at least a swing low. Target was 61.0. I moved my stop up to BE + 2 ticks after price made the first push and stalled at 59.50.
The ES then pulled back, something I expected, and took my stop out for a 2 tick winner. I then have to sit and watch price rocket up to and past my 61.0 target. So I throw away a 5 point winner for 2 measly ticks. Of course, had I moved my stop to my entry at 61.0 I'm sure that would have been the swing low on the pullback.
I'm pleased that I got into the trade of course, there was good evidence that the ES could turn there. It does suck to throw away points over a few ticks when I figured I was being pragmatic. I'm actually pretty irritated at the moment about it.
I'm going to run a few errands outside the office and come back to move onto the next one I suppose, but damn.
13:15
Took a few swings at some shorts around 59 looking for another leg down. My stops were pretty tight and I did take a small hit but worth the risk I think. Price was struggling in that area in terms of moving higher and I thought a break down would have the chance to run to new lows so my RR was over 4 for each of my entries. Price is not in an interesting area at the moment, having broken up out of the little consolidation there was. Maybe I would buy a pullback into that area...I don't know for sure I'd have to see what it looks like. I would consider selling 63's it that looks right as well...selling 63's to new lows would be nice. If the ES cannot clear the 63's then I don't think testing the LOD is out of the question in terms of a potential target. There's also buying 55's or 57's as those areas have held today. I like shorting 63's a lot better, I'd probably try to stay away from a long at 57's...55's are more attractive as far as that goes.
I don't think a Europe close rally party is out of the question today either. Given how crappy the European session was with that out of the way we could get a little rally going I suppose.
14:50
So my swings in the 59's really were not a part of my plan. After stepping back and having another look while looking at what price was doing I'm asking myself "why trade there"? It's maybe not the worst spot to trade and there was the possibility of a move lower but the better spot was a move a little higher, which is what I'm stalking now. I suppose it's FOMO. I missed out on the move higher that I was in. I left for a bit and missed out on a move lower from the 63's, so I was trying to catch the next leg down. Not bad necessarily, my RR was good and I believe there was some evidence to suggest it was possible, but still not within the confines of my trading plan.
At the moment price is not exactly cooperating with what I am asking it to do. There's still time for something to shake out however so I'm staying alert and analyzing and re-analyzing things. Often just when I think it's time to give up and move on for the day because nothing will happen, that's just when something happens.
End of Day
I took a shot at a short just after 15:30 at 62.75. Based on what I saw I felt there was a good possibility of at least a short term turn and perhaps a larger push lower. The ES gave me the initial move down and I put my stop at BE. I don't care to trade the close and this entry was really close in that regard. I did scratch for break even as this moved higher into the close but I'm pleased with the trade overall. I stalked it well and managed it according to my plan.
In terms of the day as a whole, I did some things wrong today and some things right. I got into a trade this morning that was favorable. I did not manage this trade according to my plan and missed out on 18 ticks, taking 2 instead. Management of this trade according to my plan cost me in this situation.
I also got into trades that do not fit into my plan. While there was enough evidence to try these trades, and while the RR was good, and while they could have just as easily been profitable, they were not to plan. On some level it's probably good that they did not produce a profit because I may have overlooked the fact that they do not fit into my plan. The last thing I want to do is reinforce a bad habit, and ringing the cash register is a good way to do that.
I was not hesitant today. When I saw a good entry I took it - period. I stalked very well today too. Stalking is important for me because I can consider my options leading up to the moment and I'm not making snap decisions. There are times when I'm doing something else (work stuff) and I'll keep an eye on things but won't pause to stalk when price is in an area of interest when work stuff can wait a few minutes. When I force myself into a snap decision I am more prone to either hesitation or mistakes. The unplanned entries were closer to snap decisions.
I also feel that I read price action and strength well today. I keep looking at that second push this morning that started around 10:15 that ultimately made the LOD. I've looked at how I could have capitalized on that move by getting short on the stall after the first push lower. I don't see it. If I have to look this hard to find it then it's not to be found. This second push is the one thing I was unsure of; I thought there was a good chance of a move higher from here at that moment. The good thing is that I didn't place a bet there as I was unsure, so I'll also take that as a positive.
Even though I did not have a profitable day when there was profit to be had, I feel good. I made mistakes but I read price well. I didn't put myself in positions where I wasn't clear on what I thought would probably happen, or was likely to happen. I didn't get into trades where my RR was not good, even the mistake ones.
If I can continue to put myself in favorable positions I will eventually work out the mistakes. For the second day this week I leave my screens pleased with the small amount of progress I feel that I made.
I have added some quick things for a morning premarket routine, of which I don't really have at the moment. I don't want to get bogged down with things in the morning but in addition to reviewing some prior days charts with comments I'm going to set one goal for the day based on my prior days performance. I'm not going to get real formal with it just yet but I sort of did this today with the hesitation thing and cleaned that up well. Just like a golf swing though, I tuck my elbow and something else goes awry. I'm not going to add multiple goals, just one thing to build upon the prior day. If I try it on and like it I'll formalize it in some way and add some performance tracking.
Some real strength overnight and into premarket. The 8:30 economic news was most at consensus. I'm running slightly behind today so I'll be more patient as I settle in off the open. I have a busy late morning and early afternoon but I'll be in front of the screen for the big 14:00 announcement.
11:00
Getting a late start was definitely not helpful but I did manage to get a feel for price movement a little bit after the open. I liked the premarket resistance around 69 so I was interested when price got to this level. I took a few whacks at it but ended up scratching both trades at break even. I held the second trade into the 10:30 news with my stop at my entry that got tagged on the news.
I'm happy with both of the trades as I followed my plan; I was aggressive with my entry when I needed to be and didn't tinker too much with the management.
I've been pretty busy with work this morning and it's going to get busier for the next couple of hours so I won't be trading much or at all until the afternoon (and even then, maybe not).
14:55
Took a short at 79.0 as the ES kept stalling there. I was patient and kept waiting for the right moment; I didn't want to rush into the trade. I believe I did all of these things correctly, or better put, according to my plan. I was not thrilled about selling into this bullish market but the short was set up well so I really could not ignore it.
I was pleased when the trade worked right off the bat, not really any heat taken at all. My target was down in the 72's; I really thought the ES had fuel to get back down there. As the trade moved past my 1R point I moved my stop to break even, such is my plan. As the trade went +3 I was tempted to take my profits and be happy, but that would also not be trading my plan. I told myself that I needed to stick with my plan. When I veered from my plan on Monday I cost myself a lot of profit, so no matter what, just stick to the plan.
I then sat and watched my paper profit disappear and my stop trigger for a scratch trade. The bulls were not finished as I had hoped. The best thing that has happened since that is that price has moved much higher, well through where my initial stop loss was. I'd be writing a much different entry if price had touched me at 79.0 and not gone 1 tick above but moved down again.
Sometimes I do feel that I'm screwed no matter what I do. Take profits early, the market runs to your target. Leave the trade on for your target, the market will reverse and take you out. I'm sure this is a fairly common feeling for everyone at some stage. The best thing I believe I can do is just stick to my plan and record what did happen for each trade and evaluate the overall plan after many trades. If I need an adjustment it should be made after collecting a good amount of data points. If I adjust trade to trade I'll probably always pick the bad choice. So, I'll just continue to try to trade my plan with consistency and evaluate later.
From a discipline perspective I am happy about how I entered and managed the trade. I did not hesitate and although I wanted to tinker with it once I was seeing a few points I resisted the urge; something I need to continue to do.
End of Day
It's approaching that time of day where I don't care to trade. I've been tempted to short price here at 83.50 but I won't. I believe, based on what I see, that the ES could easily collapse and move down into the close but I'm not willing to bet on that anymore. The best advice I've given myself on FOMC afternoons is to sit aside and watch. I participated a little today and was unscathed, so I'll take that and be pleased with it.
I had a good, mistake free day as far as I can see. I'll do a thorough review later to see if there was something I missed but in terms of what I did do today, I did it well. The post FOMC price; I really don't see where it would have made sense to go long. The only real spot I see is when I was short, buying that pullback down to 75's. But I was thinking the opposite at the time. Of course knowing what I know now it's easy to say I needed to be a buyer on pullbacks instead of looking to sell tops. But the 25bp increase was expected so I didn't expect such a positive reaction to that news. The Fed said 2 more increases in 2017, something that I also believe was mostly expected. That made me not trust the rally; I figured it was a house of cards that would topple before the close and jam all of the longs and that didn't happen. I suppose with all of that, coming out net zero is pretty good.
